TCAR - Typhoon Committee

ESCAP/WMO 

Typhoon Committee 

KUJIRAI 

CHAN-HOM 

LINFA 

NANGKA 

SOUDELOR 

MOLAVE 

GONI 

MORAKOT 

ETAU 

VAMCO 

KROVANH 

DUJUAN 

MUJIGAE 

CHOI-WAN 

KOPPU 

KETSANA 

PARMA 

MELOR 

NEPARTAK 

LUPIT 

MIRINAE 

NIDA 

Annual Review 

2009 

ESCAP/WMO 

Typhoon Committee

On the Cover: 

2 

ESCAP/WMO 

Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2009 

MTSAT-1R VS imagery of NIDA (0922) at 18UTC, 25 November 2009. 

(By courtesy of Japan Meteorological Agency)

CONTENTS 

ESCAP, WMO and the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 

Typhoon Committee (2007-2008) 

ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2009 

Foreword 

Introduction 

Chapter 1 TC ACTIVITIES 2009 

1.1.Summary of Member’s Key Result Areas 

1.2 Typhoon Committee Secretariat (TCS) 

Chapter 2 TROPICAL CYCLONES 2009 

KUJIRAI (0901) 

CHAN-HOM (0902) 

LINFA (0903) 

NANGKA (0904) 

SOUDELOR (0905) 

MOLAVE (0906) 

GONI (0907) 

MORAKOT (0908) 

ETAU (0909) 

VAMCO (0910) 

KROVANH (0911) 

DUJUAN (0912) 

MUJIGAE (0913) 

CHOI-WAN (0914) 

KOPPU (0915) 

KETSANA (0916) 

PARMA (0917) 

MELOR (0918) 

NEPARTAK (0919) 

LUPIT (0920) 

MIRINAE (0921) 

NIDA (0922) 

TCAR 

Contents 

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Chapter 3 CONTRIBUTED PAPERS 

1. Application of Satellite Rain Rate Estimates to the Prediction of Tropical Cyclone Fall 

Chan Sai-tick, Scientific-Officer, HKO 

2. Improved Error Diagnostics for Model Verification 

Tieh-Yong KOH, Assistant Professor, School of Physical & Mathematical Science, Singapore 

3. Flood and Storm Surge Monitoring, Forecasting and Warning System 

LEONG Weng Kun, Meteorologist, SMG, Macao, China 

4. International Best Tracks Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) 

David LEVINSON, NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center (NCDC) 

5. Recent Challenges for Reducing Sediment-related Disaster Risk by 

Utilizing Hazard Map And Early Warning System with Community in Japan 

Hisashi HOSHINO, Director, Research and Quality Control Division, Rokko Sabo Office, 

Kinki Regional Development Bureau, MLIT 

6. Precipitation Analysis and Numerical Simulation of MORAKOT 

QIAN Chuanhai, National Meteorological Centre of CMA, China 

7. An introduction on WMO Landfall Typhoon Forecast Demonstration Project 

YU Hui, Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA, China 

8. Wind-related disaster risk and reduction 

Yukio TAMURA, President of International Association for Wind Engineering; Director, 

Global COE Program “New Frontier of Education and Research in Wind Engineering”; 

President of International Association of Wind EngineSering-Tokyo Polytechnic University 

9. THORPEX Activities Relevant to Typhoon Committee 

Tetsuo NAKAZAWA - WMO/WWRP THORPEX 

10. Re-analysis and Prediction of Typhoon Vera (5915) - 

The Most Destructive Typhoon Hitting Japan 50 Years Ago 

Mitsuhiko HATORI, Director-General of Forecast Department, JMA 

11. Predictability of Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Events on 

Intraseasonal Timescales with the ECMWF Monthly Forecast Model 

Elsberry Russ, Chair of Tropical Cyclone Panel of WWRP/WMO 

12. Community Weather Station & Warning Dissemination 

Hilda Lam, Hong Kong Observatory

Chapter 4 WMO TC NEWS 



Chapter 5 RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP TECHNICAL REPORT 

Use of the JMA Ensemble Prediction System for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting 

Chen Pei-yan and Chan Sai-tick 

269 

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Typhoon Committee Annual Review 2009

ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION 

FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC (ESCAP) 

The Economic and Social Commission for Asia and 

the Pacific (ESCAP) aims to initiate and participate in 

measures for concerted action towards the development 

of Asia and the Pacific, including the social aspects of 

such development, with a view to raising the level of 

economic activity and standards of living and maintaining 

and strengthening the economic relations of countries 

and territories in the region, both among themselves and 

with other countries in the world. The Commission also: 

• provides substantive services, secretariats 

and documentation for the Commission and its 

subsidiary bodies; 

• undertakes studies, investigations and other activities 

within the Commission’s terms of reference; 

• provides advisory services to Governments at 

their request; 

• contributes to the planning and organization of 

programmes of technical cooperation and acts 

as executing agency for those regional projects 

decentralized to it. 

WORLD METEOROLOGICAL 

ORGANIZATION (WMO) 

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a 

specialized agency of the United Nations, serves: 

• to facilitate international cooperation in the 

establishment of networks of stations and centres 

to provide meteorological and hydrological 

services and observations; 

• to promote the establishment and maintenance 

of systems for rapid exchange of meteorological 

and related information; 

• to promote standardization of meteorological 

and related observations and ensure the uniform 

publication of observations and statistics; 

• to further the application of meteorology to 

aviation, shipping, water problems, agriculture 

and other human activities; 

• to promote activities in operational hydrology 

and to further close cooperation between 

Meteorological and Hydrological Services; 

• to encourage research and training in meteorology 

and, as appropriate, in related fields. 



ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON COMMITTEE 

(TC) 

Under the auspices of ESCAP and WMO, the Typhoon 

Committee was constituted with a view to promoting 

and coordinating efforts for minimizing tropical cyclone 

damage in the ESCAP region. The incipient stage of 

the Typhoon Committee dated back to 1964 when 

the United Nations Economic Commission for Asia 

and the Far East (ECAFE) 11 at its twentieth session 

recommended that the Secretariat, in cooperation with 

WMO, should study the practical means of initiating a 

joint programme of investigations of tropical cyclones 

in the ECAFE region. Accordingly, a meeting of the 

Working Group of Experts on Typhoon was organized 

by ECAFE and WMO with financial assistance from 

the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) 

in Manila in December 1965. 

Noting the extensive damage caused by tropical 

cyclones in the region, the meeting recommended 

that a Preparatory Mission on Typhoons be organized 

to visit the countries in the ECAFE region and 

neighbouring countries affected by tropical cyclones, 

in order to formulate an action programme to mitigate 

tropical cyclone damage. It also recommended 

that a second meeting of experts be convened to 

examine the report of the Mission. Consequently, 

the ECAFE/WMO Preparatory Mission on Typhoons 

was organized during the period from December 

1966 to February 1967, with financial assistance 

from UNDP. Broadly, the report of the Mission 

provided recommendations to improve meteorological 

observing networks, telecommunication facilities, 

tropical cyclone forecasting and arrangements for 

warnings. It also described requirements for the 

improvement or establishment of new pilot flood 

forecasting and warning systems on a key river basin 

in each of the countries visited. 

The establishment of a Regional Typhoon Centre was 

also dealt with in the report. The second meeting 

of the Working Group of Experts on Typhoon was 

held in Bangkok in October 1967 and the meeting 

endorsed the report of the Preparatory Mission and 

reiterated the need for early action to mitigate tropical 

cyclone damage as a means of speeding economic 

development in the region. It also re-affirmed that 

national as well as joint efforts were necessary to 

combat effectively the detrimental effect of tropical 

cyclones. 

Accordingly, the meeting recommended that a 

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Typhoon Committee with a Regional Typhoon Centre 

as its executive body be established under the 

auspices of ECAFE in cooperation with WMO; and 

the ECAFE and WMO secretariats were requested 

to draft jointly the statute and rules of procedure of 

the proposed Typhoon Committee and to convene 

an ad hoc meeting of government representatives to 

consider and finalize the drafts. The ad hoc meeting 

on the statute of the Typhoon Committee was held 

in Bangkok from 29 February to 2 March 1968. The 

meeting, besides finalizing and adopting the statute 

and rules of procedure of the Typhoon Committee, 

recommended that the statute of the Typhoon 

Committee be submitted to the twenty-fourth session 

of ECAFE and the appropriate body of WMO for 

consideration. It also recommended that ECAFE and 

WMO should provide a small staff to undertake the 

preparatory work required for the implementation of 

the programme recommended by the Mission. 

At its twenty-fourth session in April 1968, ECAFE 

endorsed the establishment of the Typhoon Committee 

in accordance with the statute as adopted by the ad 

hoc meeting. In a parallel action, the WMO Executive 

Committee, at its twentieth session in 1968, endorsed 

the establishment of the Typhoon Committee. The 

inaugural session of the Typhoon Committee was 

convened in Bangkok in December 1968. The 

functions of the Committee are to: 

• review regularly the progress made in the various 

fields of tropical cyclone damage prevention; 

• recommend to the participating Government 

plans and measures for the improvement of 

meteorological and hydrological facilities needed 

for tropical cyclone damage prevention; 

• recommend to the participating Government plans 

and measures for the improvement of community 

preparedness and disaster prevention; 

• promote the establishment of programmes and 

facilities for training personnel from countries 

of the region in tropical cyclone forecasting and 

warning, flood hydrology and control within the 

region and arrange for training outside the region, 

as necessary; 

• promote, prepare and submit to participating 

Governments and other interested organizations 

plans for coordination of research programmes 

and activities concerning tropical cyclones; 

• consider, upon request, possible sources of 

financial and technical support for such plans and 

programmes; 

• prepare and submit, at the request and on behalf of 

the participating Governments, requests for technical, 

financial and other assistance offered under the 

UNDP and by other organizations and contributors. 

In carrying out these functions, the Typhoon Committee 

maintains and implements action programmes under 

the five components, namely meteorology, hydrology, 

disaster prevention and preparedness, training, and 

research with contributions and cooperation from 

its Members and assistance by the UNDP, ESCAP, 

WMO and other agencies. The Typhoon Committee is 

currently composed of 14 Members: Cambodia, China, 

Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), Hong 

Kong-China, Japan, Lao PDR, Macau-China, Malaysia, 

the Philippines, Republic of Korea, Singapore, 

Thailand, Viet Nam and the United States of America.

TYPHOON COMMITTEE (2009) 

Chairman 

Mr. Thosakdi Vanichkajorn (Thailand) 

Typhoon Committee Secretariat 

Secretary 

Mr. Olavo Rasquinho 

Meteorologist 

Mr. Derek Leong 

Hydrologist 

Mr. Liu Jinping 

Administrative Staff 

Ms. Denise Lau 

Ms. Lisa Kou 



ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON 

COMMITTEE ANNUAL REVIEW 

2009 

Chief Editor 

Mr. Olavo Rasquinho 

(Typhoon Committee Secretariat) 

National Editors 

Ms. Seth Vannareth 

(Cambodia) 

Mr. Zhang Guocai 

(China) 

Dr. Kang Bom Jin 

(Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) 

Mr. Leung Wing-Mo 

(Hong Kong, China) 

Mr . Noritake Nishide 

(Japan) 

Mrs. Souvanny Phonevilay 

(Lao People’s Democratic 

Republic) 

Ms. Leong Ka Cheng, Florence 

(Macao, China) 

Mr. Subramaniam Moten 

(Malaysia) 

Mr. Roberto T. Rivera 

(Philippines) 

Dr. Eun-Jeong Cha 

(Republic of Korea) 

Ms. Wong Chin Ling 

(Singapore) 

Ms. Pham Thi Thanh Nga 

(Socialist Republic of Viet Nam) 

Mr. Sampan Thaikruawan 

(Thailand) 

Ms. Genevieve C. Miller 

(United States of America) 

2009 

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FOREWORD 

The ESCAP/WMO Typhoon 

Committee (TC) has 

accomplished 41 years in 

2009. Created in 1968 under 

the auspices of ESCAP1 

and WMO, the Committee 

has been ameliorating its 

performance. The TC has 

improved its action program, 

now called strategic plan, 

with a view to better collaborate in meeting the 

challenges that humanity is facing, particularly in 

relation to climate change. 

The activities of the Committee in 2009 covered a 

wide range of issues and significant improvements 

were achieved in the three main components of 

the TC: Meteorology, Hydrology and Disaster Risk 

Reduction (DRR)2. 

For the fourth time, an integrated workshop was 

held, involving meteorologists, hydrologists and 

DRR experts. Professionals from these three areas 

had again the opportunity to discuss matters of 

common interest. The workshop was held in Cebu, 

the Philippines, and the main theme was “Building 

Sustainability and Resilience in High Risk Areas of 

the Typhoon Committee: Assessment and Action”. It 

provided a great opportunity to exchange information, 

to review progress in the implementation of the 

Annual Operating Plan for 2009 and to identify 

priority and strategic needs of the TC Members for 

2010 and beyond. 

In the meteorological component, special attention 

was given to the assessment on change of frequency 

and intensity of tropical cyclones, the progress of 

information and processing systems, early warning 

systems, storm surge models in use by Members and 

Web-based forum on discussions and exchanging 

information of tropical cyclone among forecasters. 

1At that time called ECAFE- Economic Commission for Asia and the Far 

East. 

2 It was decided at the 42nd TC Session (Singapore, 25-29 January 

2010) to change the name of Working Group on Disaster Prevention and 

Preparedness (WGDPP) to Working Group on Disaster Risk Reduction 

(WGDRR) in order to enhance the Typhoon Committee’s cooperation with 

the United Nations organizations especially WMO and use a common 

name. 


Foreword 

As regards the hydrological component, progress has 

been made in ongoing projects, such as those related 

to the establishment of flood disaster preparedness 

indices, hazard mapping, debris and landslides 

warning systems, urban flood risk management, 

socio-economic impacts of water-related disasters 

and training. 

In respect to disaster risk reduction component, 

good progress has been made in the development 

of the Web GIS based Typhoon Committee Disaster 

Information System (WGTCDIS), a system for sharing 

disaster related information among members to 

reduce damage from tropical cyclones. 

The Training and Research Coordinating Group (TRCG) 

conducted two important events, the 8th Roving 

Seminar and the first TRCG Technical Forum. The 

Seminar was held in Nanjing with the collaboration of 

the Working Group on Meteorology (WGM), WMO and 

the China Meteorological Administration through the 

Regional Meteorological Training Center of Nanjing. It 

focused mainly on “Analysis and forecasting of highimpact 

weather associated with tropical cyclones”, 

“Formulation and compilation of tropical cyclone 

warning messages” and “Communication and 

broadcasting of tropical cyclone warning messages 

through the mass media”. The Forum was held in 

Jeju, Republic of Korea, and focused mainly on the 

exchange of experience on information and processing 

systems and lectures on ensemble prediction system 

(EPS). WGM, WMO and the Korea Meteorological 

Administration (KMA) collaborated to organise this 

forum. 

With invitations from various international institutions, 

staff of the TC Secretariat had the opportunity to 

give presentations in some international meetings, 

namely “First Meeting of the Committee on Disaster 

Risk Reduction-DRR” (Bangkok, 25-27 March 2009); 

“Expert Group Meeting on Innovative Strategies 

towards Flood Resilient Cities in Asia-Pacific” 

(Bangkok, Thailand, 21-23 July 2009); “AOGS 6th 

Annual Meeting”(Singapore, 11-15 August, 2009); 

“Second WMO International Workshop on Tropical 

Cyclone Landfall Processes - IWTCLP-Il” (Shanghai, 

China, 19-23 October 2009); “First International 

Conference on Policy and Research for Global 

Disaster Management” (Seoul, Republic of Korea, 11- 

13 November 2009). 

The 2009 typhoon season was characterized by some 

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very active tropical storms and typhoons that deeply 

affected some Members, where floods, landslides and 

mudslides occurred, causing a significant death toll. In 

the Philippines, tropical storm Ketsana unleashed the 

heaviest rains in more than four decades on Manila 

and surrounding areas, resulting in the declaration of 

state of calamity thatencompassed most of Luzon. In 

Taiwan, typhoon Morakot was nearly stationary for 

several days over the island, causing torrential rain 

never recorded before in that region. The torrential 

rain caused severe mudslides with catastrophic 

consequences. 

I would like to conclude this foreword by paying 

tribute to Dr. Chow Kok Kee, who passed away very 

peacefully on the 9th August, 2009. He was well-loved 

by family, friends and colleagues; and respected by all. 

He was strongly linked to the activities of the Typhoon 

Committee, either as Director of the Malaysian 

Meteorological Department, or as Chairman of TC, 

elected at the thirty-sixth annual session (December 

2003), or as Chairman of the Advisory Working Group 

for the period between the 37th and 38thSessions 

(2005). 

Mr. Foong Chee Leong, 

Chairman of Typhoon Committee 

(January 2010-January 2011)

Introduction 

The Typhoon Committee Annual Review (TCAR) has 

been published since 1985. From 1985 to 1994, the 

Royal Observatory of Hong Kong provided a chief 

editor for the preparation and publication of the annual 

review. In 1995, the Typhoon Committee Secretariat 

(TCS) took over the task of the publication of TCAR. 

The Typhoon Committee, in its 39th Session held 

in Manila, Philippines, from 4 to 9 December 2006, 

appointed the Typhoon Committee Secretary as the 

Chief Editor. 

Chapter 1 provides an overview of the activities 

of the Typhoon Committee in 2009. It contains 

detailed information of its Members’ respective 

national programmes and activities related to 

meteorology, hydrology, disaster prevention and 

preparedness, training and research, as well as the 

achievements of ESCAP and WMO related to water 

resources management and disaster prevention 

and preparedness. It also includes summary of the 

activities of TCS undertaken in 2009. 

Chapter 2 includes a summary of the 22 tropical 

cyclones with tropical storm intensity or higher, in 

2009. A new method of assigning Asian names to 

tropical cyclones in the Western North Pacific and 

South China Sea was implemented on 1 January 

2000. Each tropical cyclone is identified by a fourdigit 

code assigned by the Japan Meteorological 

Agency (JMA). In accordance with the WMO Guide 

to Marine Meteorological Sciences (WMO No. 471) 

and WMO Manual on Marine Meteorological Services 

(WMO-No. 558), the intensity of a tropical cyclone is 

classified following the table below. 

As the classification of tropical cyclones is not 

the same in all TC Members, a table1 comparing 

this classification in several Members, which also 

includes the USA classification in North Atlantic, is 

also presented below. 

This chapter also includes the narrative accounts of 

tropical cyclones in 2009 based on post analyses 

submitted by Members. Each report includes an 

account of the movement and intensity change of 

the tropical cyclone. The extent of damage caused 

1This table is the Annex I to the “Assessment Report on impacts of Climate 

Change on Tropical Cyclone Frequency and Intensity in the Typhoon 

Committee Region” to be published by Typhoon Committee in 2010. 


Introduction 

by the tropical cyclone is documented as accurately 

as possible utilizing available data supplied by the 

national editors. 

Sustained winds as referred to are wind speeds 

averaged over a period of 10 minutes. The velocity unit 

of kilometers per hour (kph) is used for wind speed as 

well as speed of movement of tropical cyclones and 

other weather systems. The SI unit of hectopascal 

(hPa) is used for atmospheric pressure. Reference 

times used in this Chapter are primarily in Coordinated 

Universal Time (UTC). Whenever possible, station 

names and numbers contained in WMO Weather 

Reporting-Observing Stations (WMO-No. 9, Volume 

A) are used for geographical references. Composite 

tracks and satellite images of the tropical cyclones are 

provided as well. Are also provided 00 UTC Sea Level 

Synoptic Analysis Charts on the day, a day before and 

a day after peak intensity was attained and upper air 

charts referring to the day when maximum strength 

was reached. 

Chapter 3 consists of 12 contributed papers, which 

were presented at the 42nd TCSession by Hong Kong, 

China; Singapore; Macao, China; USA; Japan; China; 

International Association for Wind Engineering; WMO/ 

WWRP THORPEX; JMA; Tropical Cyclone Panel of 

WWRP/WMO. Chapter 4 provides the 2009 activities 

of the WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme. The final 

chapter consist of one Research Fellowship Technical 

Report. 

The TCAR has been published through the joint 

support of ESCAP and WMO. It would have not been 

made possible without the contributions of the National 

Editors of Members of the Typhoon Committee. 

Special thanks to TCS staff Mr. Leong Kai Hong 

(Derek), meteorologist, Mr. Liu Jinping, hydrologist , 

Ms. Denise Lau, senior administrative secretary and 

Ms. Lisa Kou senior finance clerk , for assisting in the 

editorial work and layout. 

Chief Editor 

November 2010, Macao 

2009 

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CLASSIFICATION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 

CLASSIFICATION MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 

Mps Knots Kph 

(a) Tropical Depression up to 17.2 Up to 34 up to 62 

(b) Tropical Storm 17.2 - 24.4 34 – 47 62 – 88 

(c) Severe Tropical Storm 24.5 - 32.6 48 – 63 89 – 117 

(d) Typhoon 32.7 or more 64 or more 118 or more 

Comparison of the Tropical Cyclone Classification 

Note : the conversion between kts to km/h and kts to m/s may vary slightly subject to rounding practices and conversion factor decimal places. 

Acronyms

I.I. Summary of progress in Key Result Area 

Cambodia 

METEOROLOGICAL ASSESSMENT 

Meteorological services in Cambodia had not properly 

established before the 

independence in 1954, although there had been some 

minimal activities before Cambodia had became a 

member of the World Meteorological Organization 

(WMO) on November 08, 1955. 

In 1964 the meteorological network consisted of 

10 synoptic and climatological stations and more 

than 100 rain gauges across the country. There 

was the National Forecasting Center at Pochentong 

International Airport, located at southwest of Phnom 

Penh, the Capital of Cambodia. 

In 1971, WMO had introduced some programs for further 

strengthening the Cambodia National Meteorological 

Services (CNMS). The project, funned by the United 

Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and 

planned fro 1972-1977 was discontinued in 1975 due 

to political upheavals in Cambodia. Between 1975 

and 1979 the CNMS was abandoned, resulting in a 

complete disruption of entire meteorological network. 

After 1979, with the assistance of Russia, some 

services for the aviation purposes have been restored. 

Since 1982 some out-of-date Russia instruments and 

about 33 rain gauges were brought in and installed at 

selected five synoptic stations. 

However in 1992, all the supports from Russia 

assistance finished and the Meteorological services 

have many difficulties. 

The Department of Agriculture Hydraulic and Hydro- 

Meteorology (DAHHM) has become the General 

Directorate of Irrigation, Meteorology and Hydrology 

(GDIMH) on September 30, 1996. 

The General Directorate of Irrigation Meteorology and 

Hydrology has then become the Ministry of Water 


CHAPTER 1 - TYPHOON COMMITTEE ACTIVITIES 

TC ACTIVITIES 2009 

Resources and Meteorology (MOWRAM) on November 

30, 1998. At the present, all meteorological activities 

in Cambodia are conducted by the Department of 

Meteorology (DOM), under the umbrella of Ministry of 

Water Resources and Meteorology. 

The Department of Meteorology has the following 

responsibilities in Cambodia: 

-Prepare the short, medium and long term plan for 

rehabilitation and development the meteorology 

throughout the country. 

-Construction and manage the meteorological stations 

-Observe the weather condition on both surface and 

atmosphere for the purpose to serve for all concerned 

sector. 

-Collect and exchange the meteorological data in 

external and internal. 

-Do forecast for the period short and long for the need 

of various organizations and inform in advance the 

natural disaster which may be happened and to have 

the protective procedure on time. 

-Exchange and search the recent the technologies in 

the meteorology throughout national and international. 

-Prepared the annual report on the situation of 

meteorology in the Kingdom of Cambodia and other 

reports, which are necessary for the Royal Government 

of Cambodia in the fulfilling the obligation and 

responsibilities, which concern with the international 

agreement. 

-Manage and co-ordinate the collaboration on 

Cambodia meteorology with United Nation agencies, 

Meteorological organizations of difference countries 

on behalf of the permanence representative of World 

Meteorological Organization to Cambodia. 

-Strengthen and broaden national and international 

cooperation on Meteorology. 

PRESENT SITUATION OF METEOROLOGICAL 

NETWORK: 

There are 24 synoptic stations observing stations and 

200 rainfall reporting station equipped only with rain 

gauges only. 

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From 1996, synoptic stations report maximum and 

minimum temperatures and daily rainfall amounts 

once daily to the Department of Meteorology Phnom 

Penh. None of rainfall reporting stations provide 

their readings to Department of Meteorology Phnom 

Penh on the same day of observation. Data are only 

available in a delayed mode in paper form. 

Some stations do not have any cup anemometers. 

Autographic instruments for rainfall, temperature, 

humidity and pressure are mostly defunct at present. 

Department of Meteorology Phnom Penh maintains 

contact with the synoptic stations via SSB radios. 

However, these radios are also old and reaching 

the end of their useful life. The data at the synoptic 

stations are also sent to Department of Meteorology 

headquarters in paper form several months after 

observation time. 

GTS telecommunication means exist for Department 

of Meteorology Phnom Penh. Data from these station 

are recorded in paper form. These centers dispatch 

the colleted data to Phnom Penh when the opportunity 

arises, which could occasionally mean a year or even 

after the event. 

National Future Plan of Meteorological Network 

Strategic Plan: 

A. Short-time plan 

• To renovate and install equipment for observation 

in the 14 existing provincial meteorological 

stations. 

• To improve and monitor the existing 124 raingauges 

stations in all provinces and cities. 

• To construct 1 new agro-meteorological station 

and install their observation equipment. 

• To increase the technical meteorological staff in 

the provinces and cities. 

• To strengthen and extend the technical 

collaboration with the World Meteorological 

Organization and donor communities. 

• To establish the meteorological radar in Phnom 

Penh at Meteorological station. 

B. Medium term plan 

• To construct 11 new meteorological stations and 

rainfall then observations equipment. 

• To construct 5 new agro-meteorological station 

and install their observation equipment. 

• To establish the GTS and equip additional 

forecasting instruments. 

• To establish the meteorological radar in Siem 

Reap provincial meteorological station. 

• To install 100 rain-gauges stations in some 

provinces and cities. 

• To train the meteorological staff up to the degree 

of post-graduate. 

• To strengthen and extend the technical 

collaboration with the World Meteorological 

Organization and donor communities. 

• To research and analyze for a precise 

meteorological information in order to better 

serve Cambodia and other countries in the region. 

C. Long-term plan 

• To improve and install additional equipment in the 

meteorological stations and rain gauges stations 

to be built in all provinces and cities. 

• To install the automatic observation instruments 

in 4 meteorological stations. 

• To install 200 rain-gauges stations in some 

provinces and cities 

• To establish the meteorological radar in Ratanakiri 

province. 

• To install forecasting instruments and 

broadcasting directly visa the TV. 

• To equip the broadcasting emergency help system 

in all cases of disaster phenomenal. 

• To collect and exchange on time the meteorological 

data from the meteorological stations and rainfall 

stations at national and international level. 

• To strengthen the technical collaboration with 

the World Meteorological Organization and donor 

communities. 

• To research and analyze in order to create 

precisemeteorological information to better serve 

Cambodia and the World.

Table of Comparison data reported from all provinces 



No. STATION 

Number 

of Station 

2008/December 

Number of data (Reported) 

2009/December 

Number of data(Reported) 

Remarks 

Rain Tmax Tmin Rain Tmax Tmin 

1 Pochentong 991 Synoptic Synoptic 1time/day 

2 Svay Rieng 998 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

3 Prey Veng 997 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

4 Kompong Cham 995 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

5 Kratie 970 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

6 Stung Treng 972 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

7 Pursat 968 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

8 Battambang 962 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

9 Siem Reap 966 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

10 Sihanouk ville 983 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

11 Kampot 985 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

12 Bonteay Mean Chey 963 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

13 Kompong Thom 965 30 - - 30 - - 1time/day 

14 Ratanakiri 975 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

15 Oudor Mean Chey 961 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

16 Pailin 963 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

17 Preah Vihear 965 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

18 Kompong Chhnang 967 30 - - 30 - - 1time/day 

19 Kep 984 30 - - 30 - - 1time/day 

20 Takeo 993 30 - - 30 - - 1time/day 

21 Koh Kong 986 30 30 30 30 30 30 1time/day 

22 Modulkiri 971 30 - - 30 - - 1time/day 

23 Kandal 990 30 - - 30 - - 1time/day 

24 Kompong Spoeu 992 30 - - 30 - - 1time/day 

CHARACTERISTIC OF TROPICAL BEST TRACKS 

OVER CAMBODIA 

Frequency of Tropical Cyclones landfall over Cambodia 

in the past 30 years 1991- 2008. 

No of TCs 

25 

20 

15 

10 

5 

0 

Frequency of Tropical Cyclone in Cambodia(1991-2008) 

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 

Months 

On an average about 3.4 Tropical Cyclones of various 

intensities make landfallandover Cambodia per annum. In 

the past 30 years the total annual frequency of the tropical 

cyclones best tracks over Cambodia observed less than 9 

tropical cyclones, which equivalence about 8.82 % from 

the past period before from1991 to 2008. 

No of TCs 

Figure 1. Shows the comparison of monthly frequency of tropical best tracks over Cambodia from 1911- 2008. 

Max 

2009 

17

18 

ESCAP/WMO 


The highest monthly frequency of tropical best tracks 

over Cambodia country observed during July to 

September. Almost The monthly frequency of tropical 

best tracks over Cambodia from 1991-2008. 

Before landfall the distribution of rainfall mostly 

observed less than 50 mm and 200 – 300 mm 

(28.57%).The impact by TCs and associated with 

heavy monsoon rainfall such as: storm winds, 

torrential rains, landslide and causing damages to 

national infrastructures, agriculture production, and 

human settlements, and results in losses to livestock 

and human lives. 

During landfall over landfall over Cambodia, mostly 

the total rainfall caused by TCs observed about 100 

– 200 mm and 400 – 500 mm. Some time about 

550 – 750 mm. When the Tropical Cyclones landfall 

and over Cambodia, the speed of movement is rapidly 

decreasing and steady in low Pressure areas about 

two consecutive days over Cambodia territory. This 

weather disastrous phenomenon is associated 

with strong southwest monsoon prevailed over the 

country and with Iter-Tropical Convergence Zone 

(ITCZ) lies over south China Sea and approach 

Indochina Peninsula. As a resulted heavy rain in to 

two consecutive days observed in radii of expanded 

of Tropical Cyclones. Storm winds, torrential rains 

phenomenon cause damage to property and result 

in loses to livestock and human lives. Cambodia is 

located in the areas where in the most amount of 

rainfall in Indochina Peninsula including the Mekong 

basin, especially in the mountainous areas in the 

northern and central parts of the country receive 

more than 3000 mm of annual rainfall. Therefore the 

accurate of Tropical Cyclone Forecast and Warning 

at DoM of Cambodia is a great importance to assist 

the government and public users to take prevention 

activities when a tropical cyclone is approaching or 

landing over Indochina peninsula. 

TROPICAL CYLONE MONITORING AND 

WARNINGSERVICESATTHE DEPARTMENT OF 

METEOROLOGY 

The Department of Meteorology is considered as a 

technical Department directly under Ministry of Water 

Resources and Meteorology with it function to provide: 

The weather forecasts for short, medium and long 

range. 

The Tropical Cyclone Warnings. 

Issue the Forecasts and warnings to public. 

The Tropical cyclone warnings in Cambodia usually 

commence during rainy season, which period from 

June or July to October of the year. 

Meteorological Network : 

- Main synoptic station = 24 stations 

- Secondary synoptic station = 15 stations (monthly 

data recording only) 

- Rain gauges = 200 stations. 

Data collection at DoM 

At national level: Public telephone that used for 

domestic data collection. 

International level:DoM in Phnom Penh is connected 

to Bangkok by GTS. The satellite MTSAT receiving 

station. 

Tropical Cyclone monitoring in Cambodia 

When the Tropical cyclone activity in the area near 

Indochina Peninsula,DoM is monitored 24 hours a day 

by: 

- Meteorological observation network 

- Satellite images 

- Weather maps 

- Guidance from RSMC Tokyo, Hong Kong, Bangkok 

and ADPC trough Global 

telecommunication system and Internet. 

Utilization of Numerical Weather prediction for 

Tropical Cyclone monitoring. 

- JMA Tokyo Rainfall prediction and other parameters 

by Internet. 

- From European Weather forecast center model and 

Navy USA Center. The products consist: 

>MSLP, Z500 and T850 charts (Forecast for 24, 48, 

72 and 96 hrs). 

> Upper air Charts 850 and 200 Mb (Forecast for24, 

48 and 72 hrs). 

Sample of Tropical Cyclone and Thunderstorm 

Warnings/Weather Forecast 

Warning issued by DoMat: 10:00 am 

Weather condition expected:

- Heavy rain with speed winds 10-15 mps at areas. 

- Light rain with thunders over Cambodia. Therefore 

inhabitants within these above mentioned areas 

are advised to be aware of damages which may be 

caused by flash flood and flood. 

- Please follow next warning for the necessary action 

taking 

Forecasts and Tropical Cyclone Warnings 

Dissemination. 

The Public telephone, Facsimile and E-Mail are used 

for delivering the weather and flood forecasts and 

Tropical Cyclone Warnings to public. 

DoM releases the massage to public trough TV, Radio 

and News papers. 

Report the massage to Ministry Water Resources and 

Meteorology. 

In case Urgent warning: 

- DoM make interview to Mass – media. 

- DoM provides an announcement warning and send 

to MOWRAM, after that MOWRAM reports to Prime 

minister. 

- Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology 

releases the warning message to Public through TV, 

Radio and News papers (present in to TV studio by 

minister of MOWRAM or Directorof DoM). 

- At the same time DoM send the warning to NCDM 

and Mass-media. 

- National and Municipality Radio Stations is frequently 

broadcaster in to many programs of the day. 

Natural Disasters 

1) Floods 

In Cambodia there two main types of floods: flash 

flood and river flood. They frequently occur during 

the rainy season (South-East Asian monsoon). The 

country is rarely hit by coastal floods. The floods are 

mainly caused by deforestation, erosion of river banks 

causing the river to become shallower. Cambodia has 

so far lack of building and engineering codes, lack 

of appropriate irrigation systems and the domestic 

rainfall is heavy in mountainous areas, North and 

West of Phnom Penh Capital. 

2) Drought 

The imbalance in the distribution of monsoon rainfall 

over recent years has resulted in drought condition 



in some parts of Cambodia. During the rainy season 

from May-November, a dry spell of 10-20 days can 

give rise to extensive drought and damage to paddy 

field. Some areas in Cambodia have been affected 

by prolonged drought from 1997 to 1998. Cambodian 

people would face food shortage and poverty if this 

disaster continued to exist. 

3) Forest Fire 

This disaster is very rare in Cambodia. In 1997 there 

was a forest fire occurred in Kirirum mountain, but 

it was a small scale disaster which lasted for a few 

days. Frequently, Cambodia is affected by house fire, 

especially in the big cities, and the fire fighting engines 

are not sufficient for the whole country and could not 

access to the building on fire due to the lack of laws 

and legislation relating to construction. 

4) Landslide 

In 1997 the flow of Mekong River has caused landslide 

in Kandal, Kampong Chain, Prey Veng provinces and 

in Phnom Penh city. The current of water has carried 

along with it houses, fruit trees. Cambodian people 

living on the river bank are facing hazards of landslide 

and they are not equipped with appropriate measures 

of prevention and reduction. 

5) Storms 

Some provinces of Cambodia are also hit by storms 

and Typhoon. By the end of 1997, Linda Typhoon hit 

Pou lo wei island causing wreckage of 81 fishing 

boats and hundred of victims. In 1999, 2 cyclones hit 

one district of Phnom Penh city and another district 

of Kandal province causing destruction of nearly 500 

houses. 

DISASTER 2009 

Two time flooding: 

1. On 1-4 August was flooding by Mekong River at 

Stung Treng, Kroties and Kompong Cham. There are 

17 person died. 

2. On 4-10 September was flooding by heavy rain at 

Preah Vihear, Ratanakiri, Modulkiri, Kroties, Kompong 

Thom, Kompot, Preah Sihanouk and Koh Kong. 

Infratructure and7 dams were destroyed. And 13 

person died and 15,729 families affected. 

Drought from mid-July to end of August at 13 

provinces: Takeo, Prey Veng, Kompong Thom, Svay 

Reng, Kompong Chnang, Kompong Spoeu, Kandal, 

2009 

19

20 

ESCAP/WMO 


Battambang, Pursat, Bantey Mean Chey, Kompong 

Cham and Siem Reap. 

From April to October was affected by 6 low pressure, 

2 tropical depression, ITCZ effected as rainfall 

depression almost in the whole country. 

TY KETSANA affected to 12 provinces: Preah Vihear, 

Oudor Mean Chey, Rattanakiri, Modukiri, Stung Treng, 

Kroties, Kompong Cham, Kompong Thom, Siem 

Reap, Kompong Chnang, Bantey Mean Chey and 

Battambang. 

43 person died and 76 person injured. Infrastructure 

and Yield was destroyed. 

140 person died by lightning/thunder, 59 injured and 

38 Cow/Buffalo killed. 

The NCDM has been established as well as responsible 

on Disaster management in Cambodia. 

The NCDM consists of representatives from 6 

ministries and 3 Agencies: 

NCDM consists of the following: 

-Prime Minister: President 

-Minister of Interior: vice President 

-Minister of National Defence: vice President 

-Minister in charge of the council of Ministers: 

member 

-Minister of Economy and finance: member 

-Minister of Foreign Affairs and International Cooperation: 

member 

-Minister of Water Resources and 

Meteorology:member 

-Secretary of State for Civil Aviation:member 

-Higher Commander of RCAF: member 

NCDM has a General Secretariat to act as Executive 

Board headed by one Secretary General and 1 Deputy 

Secretary General. The General Secretariat of NCDM 

consists of 4 Departments: 

Department of Emergency Co-ordination and 

Rehabilitation (ECR) 

Department of Emergency Preparedness and Training 

(EPT) 

Department of Administration and Finance (AdF) 

Department of Search and Rescue (SAR) 

The Sub-national structure of NCDM consists of 

Provincial Committee for Disaster Management 

(PCDM) and District Committee for Disaster 

Management (DCDM). 

National Strategy 

The strategy of NCDM has been identified to meet its 

responsibilities as follows: 

- An institutional philosophy based on understanding 

and using the terms of hazards analysis, vulnerability 

analysis, emergency management and disaster 

reduction. 

- Emphasis on linking emergency management to the 

national development strategy 

- Promotion of support for and implementation of the 

IDNDR Yokohama Strategy and Plan of Action for a 

Safer World. 

- Emphasis on the co-ordination function of NCDM. 

- Adoption of a partnership approach with other 

actors in the field, including government Ministers, 

Departments, Authorities and Agencies, technical and 

academic institutions (local and international), intergovernmental 

bodies, donors, local and international 

NGOs and UN agencies. 

-Intensification of collaborating relations between 

CRC and NCDM in terms of disaster reduction and 

emergency response operation. 

- Development of network of collaborating academic 

center. 

- Focus on key issues as identified by the members 

of NCDM. 

- Adoption of a role for NCDM in general safety 

promotion. 

- Adoption of a role for NCDM in advocacy for the 

protection of victims, emergency response personnel 

and infrastructure in emergency situations. 

- Promotion and encouragement of a spirit of selfreliance 

and mutual benefit in government agencies 

and local communities. 

IMPROVEMENT OF NATURAL DISASTER 

MANAGEMENT CAPACITY IN COMMUNITIES 

AND LOCAL SOCIETIES 

Sub-National Strategy 

The following elements have been identified as defining 

the NCDM strategy for working at sub-national level: 

Work primarily through the Provincial and Municipal 

CDM. 

Ensure that the provision of emergency and 

humanitarian relief is timely, relevant and well coordinate.

Co-operate with local community organizations, 

Encourage national programmers for emergency 

management to support local initiatives, 

Ensure that emergency response can be used to 

promote long-term development, 

Provide support for rehabilitating damaged 

infrastructure, 

Use all available resources in the local area before 

asking for assistance from higher authority, 

Broaden activities to include sectors other than 

government m disaster reduction activities, 

Assess and analyses vulnerability of communities, 

their environment and their infrastructure to specific 

hazards, 

Strengthen and streamline procurement, supply and 

personal procedures, 

Promote local purchasing and employment of local 

expertise. 

CONCLUSION 

The strong SW monsoon heavy rainfall from Bay 

Bengal is associated with Tropical disturbances 

caused frequently severe flooding and flash flood in 

Cambodia. 

For today not real-time of meteorological data for 

analyzing and monitoring the weather situation on the 

Cambodia region.Means of Meteorological networks, 

communication as well as upper air observation 

needs to establish. 

Improvement of forecasting capacity in the near 

feature: 

Installation of Automatic Weather Station, Data 

transmission system. 

Improvement of tropical cyclone monitoring capability. 

Improvement of precision of rainfall monitoring. 

Upgrade of forecasts and warnings during severe 

weather conditions. 



CHINA 

1. Progress on Key Result Area 1: Reduced Loss 

of Life from Typhoon-related Disasters.(List 

progress on the Strategic Goals and Associated 

Activities in the Strategic Plan and progress on 

the 2009 Typhoon Committee Annual Operating 

Plan goals) 

a. Meteorological Achievements/Results 

Improvement in Typhoon Warning System 

In 2009, Meteorological establishments servicing 

5 provinces issued 234 typhoon warnings and 127 

typhoon alarm signals on their potential impacts 

during the typhoon season. Additionally, 1926 TC 

warning messages (SMS) were disseminated via 

mobile phone networks to about 466 million people. 

The other means of dissemination include TV, radio, 

electronic display screens, newspapers, dedicated 

telephone (phone number 12121),,weather websites, 

community-targeted broadcasts & SMS, marine radio, 

DAB alarm radios and meteorological information 

delivery by volunteers etc. 

Improvement in TC warning and advisories 

In order to improve the time validity of the operational 

typhoon forecasts and early warnings, National 

Meteorological Centre (NMC) began to issue official 

forecasts for 96-hour TC tracks in 2009, and it 

conducted operational experiment on 120-hour TC 

track forecasting. NMC will issue operational 120hour 

TC track forecasts starting from the next year. 

Revision of Typhoon Operation Standard 

In order to meet the refined services and demands of 

national agencies and general public for TC-induced 

disaster prevention and preparedness, CMA revised 

typhoon operation standard in 2009 and it plans to 

put into operation in the next typhoon season. The 

revised contents mainly include: 

The TC warning zone has been enlarged, including 

the whole South China Sea, waters east of Taiwan, 

China and the sea east of the Luzon Island. 

The forecasts for all depressions developed over the 

Western North Pacific and the South China Sea will 

be issued starting from the next year. 

Intensive upper observations during any emergency. 

b. Hydrological Achievements/Results 

To enhance flood alert and prediction capacity, 

the Hydrological Bureau under the Ministry of 

Water Resources upgraded existing operational 

2009 

21

22 

ESCAP/WMO 


flood forecasting system in 2009. The upgraded 

system is able to simulate floods in areas where 

neither monitoring stations nor data are available. 

The capability has been enhanced in breaking 

flood forecasting during such emergencies as the 

earthquake in Sichuan in 2008 and the landslides 

in Tibet. Emergency flood prediction module has 

been developed which facilitate decision-making for 

addressing any breaking water events. Moreover, the 

Hydrological Bureaus at all levels, in coordination with 

river basin management authorities,revised the flood 

forecast scheme for key sections in major rivers so as 

to improve forecast accuracy and to extend the lead 

time of the forecasts. 

In 2009, the Ministry of Water Resources prepared 

and released the technical the Guidelines for Mapping 

Flood Risks (on trial basis), which greatly promoted the 

applications of flood risk mapping technique in China. 

c. Disaster Prevention and Preparedness 

Achievements/Results 

Emergency response and typhoon-induced 

disasters relief 

In 2009, the Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA) further 

improved emergency disasters management 

mechanisms, and improved the warning mechanism 

in response to typhoon disasters focusing on the 

characteristics of the work in addressing typhooninduced 

disasters. In 2009, nine tropical cyclones 

landed on China. The National Committee for 

Disaster Reduction (NCDR) and MCA initiated 9 

emergency response actions, and overall measures 

& deployments regarding personnel coordination, 

supply of goods and clothes, information delivery 

and emergency commanding to prevent, mitigate 

and relieve typhoon disasters. Due to accurate and 

timely forecasts/warning and effective measures, 

notable success was achieved in response to 

typhoon “Morakot”, NCDR together with MCA initiated 

category-IV emergency response plan in Fujian, 

Zhejiang, Jiangxi and Anhui provinces, and 4 working 

groups were dispatched to the disaster area to guide 

disaster relief work. 6 provinces including Zhejiang, 

Fujian, Jiangsu, Anhui and others moved more than 

1.5 million people urgently to safety, which minimized 

possible casualties. Local governments initiated 

contingency plans at once and got rescue & relief 

teams ready when called on. The proven experiences 

and knowledge in combating typhoons from those at 

the grass-roots levels including community residents 

proved to be useful to avoid human casualties and 

building damages by strong wind associated with 

typhoons, which reduced houses ruins and properties 

substantively. 

Emergency standard of living of disaster victims 

Both NCDR and MCA continued to enhance 

emergency goods supply mechanism to ensure daily 

life of the affected population, to improve their living 

quality. For those who were evacuated in emergency 

typhoon responses, the local Civil Affairs Bureaus at 

various levels followed the people-centreed policy 

and mandates of delivering “food to eat, clothes 

to wear, places to live, clean water to drink, timely 

health caret “, and they mobilized human material 

and financial resources in time to help overcome 

temporary difficulties for the displaced population. 

MCA also urged its local establishments to strengthen 

their efforts in reserving relief goods and materials. 

At present, 10 warehouses of disaster rescue & 

relief goods have been established by Central and, 

local governments, each having their own storages, 

including tents, clothes and other goods needed 

by affected people in the disaster zones. Local 

governments have agreement with supermarkets and 

other institutions for food supply to disaster victims. 

In order to ensure safety of local residents who are 

exposed to typhoon threats, the provincial Bureaus 

of Civil Affairs in Zhejiang and Fujian have set up 

emergency disaster response networks to ensure 

every community has a certified shelter safe enough 

to avoid secondary causalities therein. 

d. Research, Training, and Other Achievements/ 

Results - Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Chinese 

Academy of Meteorological Sciences, and National 

Meteorological Centre, 

N/A 

e. Regional Cooperation Achievements/Results 

International Training Courses and Academic 

meeting 

The international training courses on early warning 

of natural disasters were held in Nanjing, China in 

June 2009. It was organized by Nanjing University 

of Information and Technology This event provided 

training and experience on new knowledge and 

techniques on forecasts and warnings of natural 

disasters, including tropical cyclones. 

f. Identified Opportunities/Challenges for Future 


N/A

2. Progress on Key Result Area 2: Minimized 

Typhoon-related Social and Economic Impacts. 

(List progress on the Strategic Goals and 

Associated Activities in the Strategic Plan and 

progress on the 2009 Typhoon Committee Annual 

Operating Plan goals) 


The climate prediction in relation to the frequency of 

tropical cyclone (TC) released in Early April 2009 was 

as follows: 

It was estimated total TC number would be within 

25 ~ 27 in 2009 in the Northwest Pacific and the 

South China Sea, which would be less than normal 

compared to the climatology (27 for 1971-2000 on 

average), while more than that in 2008 (22). The 

numbers of landing TCs on China would be 7 to 9, 

slightly more than normal (7). The initial landing date 

would be earlier than normal (June 29) and the last 

landing time would be near normal (October 7). 

In fact, the total number of TC was 21 over the 

Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea up to 

mid-November, 2009, which was less than normal. 

The number of landing TC was above normal (9). The 

initial landing time of TC on China was June 21, which 

was earlier than normal. 

The correct predictors can be analyzed as follows: 

According to the interannual and decadal TC 

variations, the number of TCs in 2009 fall in the lessthan-normal 

phase, while number of landing TCs is in 

its above-normal phase. The initial landing time is in 

the earlier phase, and the final landing time is in the 

later phase. 

The summer troposphere vertical wind shear index 

(weaker) and 850hPa vorticity by the dynamic model 

indicates the numbers of TC would be less than 

normal in 2009. 

Considering the relationship between the landing TC 

numbers and SLP in previous winter, the numbers of 

landing TC would be more than normal in 2009. 

According to statistical analysis, when the Northwest 

Pacific Subtropical High is stronger in summer, the 

landing TCs tend to be more than normal. 


During the 41 st meeting of the Typhoon Committee 

held in 19-24 Jan. 2009 in Chiang Mai, Thailand, 

the Typhoon Committee approved the new project 

proposal from the hydrological working panel and 

launched the new project led by China, i.e., Urban 



Flood Risk Management for Members of the Typhoon 

Committee. The project aims to exchange and share 

experiences in urban flood management among 

Members, including urban flood monitoring, prediction 

and warning technologies, and ultimately improve the 

capacity for urban flood control in the region. 

In 2009 China has completed a survey in Phase 1 as 

planned, which is to understand current practices for 

Member in managing urban floods and urgent problems 

to be addressed in urban flood control. In March 

2009, the Hydrological Bureau of China prepared a 

questionnaire and disseminated it to Members through 

the Typhoon Committee. 5 countries (regions) have 

provided feedbacks, including Hong Kong, China, 

Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam and China. Based on 

the feedbacks, the Hydrological Bureau prepared an 

investigation report, summarizing the current status 

and key issues to be attended, and proposing a work 

plan for next phase. 



N/A 


Results 

In 2009, to meet the needs for the seasonal TC 

predictions over the Northwest Pacific, the National 

Climate Centre studied the relationship between TC 

tracks, intensity, frequency and genesis location and 

large-scale atmospheric circulations. Furthermore, a 

seasonal ensemble prediction system was developed 

for Northwest Pacific TC modeling with WRF. 


Since 2005, the seasonal TC forecasts for the Western 

Pacific and the South China Sea were discussed 

at the Forum on Regional Climate Monitoring, 

Assessment and Prediction for Asia (FOCRAII) with 

the experts from Hadley Centre, IRI, Korea, China and 

other countries/regions. The meeting addressed the 

seasonal scale circulations in relation to quantification 

of TC tracks, intensity, genesis and frequency 



N/A 

2009 

23

24 

ESCAP/WMO 


3. Progress on Key Result Area 3: Enhanced 

Beneficial Typhoon-related Effects for the 

Betterment of Quality of life. (List progress on the 

Strategic Goals and Associated Activities in the 

Strategic Plan and progress on the 2009 Typhoon 

Committee Annual Operating Plan goals) 


N/A 


In 2009, altogether 9 TCs landed on China. To do 

a better job in disaster prevention and mitigation 

in this connection, the Ministry of Water Resources 

enhanced flood-control through video consultations 

or conferences, during which hydrological predictions 

were provided targeting to the areas under possible 

impacts of a typhoon. The prediction not only helped 

reduce loss caused by typhoons, but also effectively 

guided local authorities to take advantage of the 

typhoon-induced rainfall for drought relief and water 

storage in reservoirs. For example, large reservoirs 

in Hainan and Guangxi increased water retention in 

major reservoirs following the landfall of Typhoon 

Parma (No. 17). Compared to that prior to the typhoon 

landing, the total volume in 6 large reservoirs in Hainan 

alone was increased by 340 million m 3 , and that in 28 

major reservoirs in Guangxi AR was increased by 160 

million m 3 . 



N/A 


Results 

N/A 


N/A 



N/A 

4. Progress on Key Result Area 4: Improved Typhoonrelated 

Disaster Risk Management in Various Sectors. 

(List progress on the Strategic Goals and Associated 

Activities in the Strategic Plan and progress on the 

2009 Typhoon Committee Annual Operating Plan 

goals) 


Meteorological departments strengthened the 

management of typhoon risks. For the high-risk areas 

under typhoon threats, such as Guangdong, Guangxi, 

Fujian, Zhejiang and Hainan, The, pre-assessments 

on and early warning of typhoon risks were provided 

to enhance typhoon risk management, to reduce the 

typhoon impact on the urban population, agriculture, 

transportation, electricity supply, dam safety, etc. 

Based on different risk areas and typhoon risk rating, 

disaster prevention and mitigation measures were 

proposed for the governments at various levels in 

managing typhoon emergencies, and to mitigate the 

impact of typhoon disasters, as useful information for 

decision-making process. 

Technical specification for typhoon disaster 

impact assessment 

A composite index for calculating typhoon damages 

(TDCI) was developed based on damage data 

collected in 1984-2008, which was used to analyze 

the characteristics of inter-annual disasters in terms 

of deaths and missing, affected crop area, ruined 

houses, and immediate economic loss by using 

EOF method. Typhoon disaster impact rating and 

classification criteria at national and provincial levels 

were also defined. The meteorological standard - 

“Technical Specification for Typhoon Disaster Impact 

Assessment” was prepared and submitted for 

approval. 

The improvement in typhoon damage assessment 

system 

The typhoon damage assessment system has 

been improved for quasi-operational use. Main 

improvements of system are as follows: adding a 

pre-assessment module for TCs over seas; adding a 

processing module for TCs with time being numbered 

is less than 24 hours before the initial prediction 

time; and improved module to process incorrect 

surface data. The quasi-operational typhoon damage 

assessment system is started at 9:00 AM each day. 

It provides 9 pre-assessment damage information, 

including possible ruined houses, affected crop 

areas, immediate economic loss/rate, disaster 

index (TDCI), and severity categories. There are 4 

options in pre-assessment scenarios such as using 

model precipitation or not, and overlapping damages 

calculated at national level with individual provincial 

data or not, etc. Outputs of all models are timely 

displayed in diagrams (histogram and 2-D pattern)

on web. The module outcomes are still under further 

improvements. 

TC activities and its impacts 

Climatology and interannual variation in TC intensity, 

track and locations of landfall on China from the 

Northwest Pacific (WNP) are statistically analyzed, 

using 28 years (1979—2006) TC dataset from the 

U.S. Joint Typhoon Warming Centre. The results 

indicate that landing TCs are mostly originated in the 

western part of the WNP and the mid-northern part 

of the South China Sea. The landing locations of TCs 

in coastal China show a trend of northeastward shift, 

leading to the increase of landed TC number to the 

north of Xiamen (Fujian province) and the decrease 

in south of Xiamen. 

TC activities have greater impacts on other rainfallproducing 

weather systems. A statistical analysis is 

used investigate the relationship between typhoon in 

the western North Pacific and meiyu in the Yangtze 

and Huaihe valleys from 1949 to 2005. It is found that 

there is an obvious negative correlation between plum 

rainfall (called meiyu in China, baiu or tsuyu in Japan 

or jangma in Korea) and typhoon frequency both 

annually and in typhoon season. It could be attributed 

to the different positions of monsoon trough, and the 

changes in intensity and locations of subtropical high. 

Typhoon tends to be inactive in the year when meiyu 

rainfall is abundant, and vice versa (i.e. number of 

typhoons landed on China would be doubled when 

meiyu rainfall is short). 


In 2009, for establishing a Flood Disaster Preparedness 

Index,- a project under the Working Group on 

Hydrology, the Ministry of Water Resources actively 

collected and compiled relevant data, prepared an 

questionnaire for a survey, and submitted to Japan. 



Typhoon disasters monitoring, warning and 

information management 

Making decisions in emergency disaster management 

rely on disaster information. In 2009, MCA further 

improved typhoon monitoring, warning and evaluation 

mechanism. Firstly, it improved disaster monitoring 

mechanism in 24 hours to collect real-time warning 

and forecasts on typhoons from meteorological and 

oceanic agencies, to track and monitor typhoon- 



induced disasters nationwide. Secondly, it launched 

typhoon monitoring, warning and assessments 

on typhoon risks by tracking typhoon motions, 

evaluating possible losses, preparing and delivering 

typhoon impact and disaster situation information & 

products. In 2009, NDRCC/MCA issued 20 typhoon 

risk monitoring products and 12 risk early warning 

& assessment reports. Thirdly, MCA enhanced 

cooperation with agencies under coordination of the 

National Committee for Disaster Reduction, Each 

day, it delivered information about disaster situation, 

rescue & relief work through its bulletins like Disaster 

Situation Yesterday, Disasters Express, Emergence 

Response Report in support to decision making by 

central government. Fourthly, it set up information 

delivery system and associated certification system 

for recruiting qualified staff. Under these systems, 

professional disaster information delivery teams 

have been set up across the country, which provide 

a solid basis for further enhancing and improving 

management in disaster information delivery. 


Results 

N/A 


International cooperation on typhoon disasters 

reduction 

In 2009, the Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA) enhanced 

the international cooperation and exchanges in the 

field of disasters reduction with UN agencies in China, 

emergency disaster management institutions in other 

countries, international entities for disaster risk 

management, which also promoted the technological 

R&D. In August, at the request of United Nation 

agencies in China, in cooperation with the Ministry 

of Commerce, MCA organized an assessment on 

impacts of typhoon “Morakot” in disaster areas for 

humanitarian aid. An assessment working group 

was set up with 4 experts from OCHA and UNDP. 

During investigations, the UN working group would 

know the specific needs for humanitarian aid to the 

affected population and urgent technique problems 

to be addressed after disasters. Related authorities 

in Zhejiang and Fujian provided some specific 

requirements for the ongoing rescue & relief work. At 

the same time, they also provided the Working Group 

with some successful experiences and practices. 

In September, NDRCC of MCA negotiated with U.S 

RMS Company, they planed to jointly develop disaster 

2009 

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pre-assessment techniques used for typhoon risk 

management, which will improve the typhoon-induced 

warning and assessment techniques in China. 


Achievements/Results - National Meteorological 

Centre, CMA Training Centre, Shanghai Typhoon 

Institute, Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and 

Oceanic Meteorology, and Chinese Academy of 

Meteorological Sciences. 

N/A 

5. Progress on Key Result Area 5:Strengthened 

Resilience of Communities to Typhoon-related 

Disasters.(List progress on the Strategic Goals 

and Associated Activities in the Strategic Plan 

and progress on the 2009 Typhoon Committee 

Annual Operating Plan goals) 


Establishment of Shanghai Typhoon Warning Centre 

As a component of the Multiple Hazard Early Warning 

System (MHEWS), the Shanghai Typhoon Warning 

Centre was established in May 2009. This centre 

is jointly supported by Shanghai Typhoon Institute, 

Shanghai Meteorological Centre, Shanghai Satellite 

Remote Sensing and Monitoring Application Centre, 

to more effectively use the available resources for 

improving typhoon forecasting and warning services. 


In recent years, China has enhanced research on flash 

flood early warning system. In December 2007, the 

Hydrological Bureau of MWR launched a dedicated 

research project of Monitoring and Prediction 

Technology Research for Flash Flood in Medium 

and Small-sized River Basins which was funded by 

MWR for public good. The project results provided a 

basis for developing a GIS-based Central Rivers Flash 

Flood Prediction and Warning Prototype. Currently 

the System can be used for automatic prediction of 

flash flood and warning with 4 functions, i.e., static 

critical rainfall flash flood warning, soil moisturebased 

dynamic and rainfall-induced critical flash flood 

warning, flash flood warning based on distributed 

hydrological model outputs, and flash flood warning 

based on simple forecast practices. 



Disaster prevention and reduction in communities 

Combined with the efforts in building up civilized 

communities in urban areas and new villages 

in rural areas, Ministry of Civil Affairs (MCA) 

vigorously promoted disasters reduction activities 

in communities, schools and villages. Billboards, 

showcases, plates and pamphlets (e.g. handout 

for self-relief measures in prevention of risks and 

disasters) were put up or made available in residential 

blocks for public outreach in the social communities 

and for increasing public awareness to avoid risks 

and dangers. During the “Disasters Reduction Month”, 

“International day for Disasters Reduction”, and the 

“Disaster Prevention and Reduction Day”, in order to 

enhance public capabilities to handle emergencies, 

organized public outreach activities and drills. To 

ensure emergency safety of community residents, 

MCA promoted the set-ups of local emergency 

response network for disaster prevention in cities and 

countryside, to enable every community to provide a 

safe and reliable public shelter, in which emergency 

necessities must be prepared to secure their daily life. 

In response to national emergency action plans for 

natural disasters at all levels, MCA establishments at 

all levels mobilized urban and rural communities to 

set up contingency plans in case of natural disasters 

and to enhance management of disaster prevention 

and relief activities. Through public outreach for 

preventative measures in prevention and reduction 

of disasters, in conjunction with network-buildup 

and community-oriented early warning system, the 

urban and rural residents especially those who live in 

the areas frequently hit by typhoons have increased 

capacities to combat typhoons, with casualties and 

property losses being decreased sharply. 


Results 

N/A 


N/A 



N/A 

6. Progress on Key Result Area 6:Improved 

Capacity to Generate and Provide Accurate, 

Timely, and understandable Information on 

Typhoon-related Threats.(List progress on the 

Strategic Goals and Associated Activities in the




Improvement in Marine Observation System 

By the end of 2009, 191 Shore-based stations and 

84 island AWSs had been set up. Recently, 17 buoys, 

2 storm surge stations, 6 oil drilling platform-based 

stations and 4 ship stations are under construction, 

out of which the 6 buoy stations become operational. 

Improvement in Upper Air Observing System 

In 2009, 27 upper air stations were up-graded by 

L-band radar-based upper air observing systems. 

Improvement in Radar Observing System 

156 Doppler weather radars have been already 

installed in China for observing precipitation, 

rainstorms and typhoons by 2009. They further 

improved the capability in monitoring typhoons along 

the Chinese southeast coasts, among others. 

In 2009, a plan for installing additional 58 newgeneration 

Doppler weather radars has been approved 

by government to improve monitoring, forecasting and 

warning of severe weather events. According to the 

latest plan, 8 CINRAD radars will be set up in 2010. 

Improvement in Satellite Observing System 

The FY-2E satellite of the FY-2 geostationary 

meteorological satellite series has been delivered to 

the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) from 

the State Administration of Science, Technology and 

Industry for National Defense on 19 May 2009. FY- 

2E is the third satellite of the FY-2 series and is the 

successor of FY-2C and FY-2D. FY-2E has been 

successfully launched in Xichang Satellite Launch 

Centre on 23 December 2008 and located at 123.5ºE 

in the orbit on 27 December 2008. The satellite has 

such features as follows: 

• Observation ability: satellite-borne scanning 

radiometer. 

• Able to obtain a panoramic picture an hour in the 

none-flooding season and a picture half an hour 

in the flooding season covered about 1/3 earth. 

• Data collection ability: various ground data 

collection platform deliver meteorology, hydrology, 

ocean and environment data et al, then digitize all 

kinds of obtained data, modulate UHF frequency 

and send to application system via FY-2E satellite. 

Receive and demodulate data in the CDAS, then 

deliver them to the data processing centre. 



• Production distribution ability: application system 

applies the stretching and section pictures, 

quantitative product and platform data produced 

by the satellite observation data to the user via 

broadcasting-satellite channel and other means 

of communication. 

• Stretched picture broadcasting ability: stretching 

picture broadcasting is generated by the 

application system while the satellite scanning 

and observing the earth. The application system 

processes the observation data and then produces 

original resolution figure information that can be 

used by the user. 

• Low-velocity data broadcasting ability: lowvelocity 

data broadcasting deliver figures and data 

production processed by the DPC to the users via 

satellite low-velocity data broadcasting channel. 

During the flooding season of this year, in order to 

satisfy the demands of TCs’ analysis, NSMC switches 

on the multi-temporal twin-satellite observational 

mode as usual i.e., 96 pictures can be obtained 

(one quarter an hour) everyday from the FY-2C 

and FY-2D satellites. Through the higher temporal 

resolution satellite data, we can be better to catch 

the characteristic of TCs, such as their occurrences, 

developments and evolutions. NMC and meteorological 

observatories in coastal areas give a high evaluation 

to the twin-satellite data according to there behavior 

in monitoring and forecasting TCs in this flood-prone 

season. 

Improvement of Tele-communication System 

CMA’s DVB-S data broadcasting system extended 

its receiving stations from 430 to 649 in 2009. And, 

the satellite-based data transmission services were 

switched from AsiaSat-2 to AsiaSat-5 successfully, 

which greatly increases the received S/N ratio. At 

present, the total broadcasting rate for the new 

system is 8.5Mbps, and the daily broadcasting data 

volume is over 36GB. The new data which is available 

via CMA’s DVB-S includes CMA’s NWP products 

generated by T639 model, FY-3 satellite observations 

and products, etc. 

To support the typhoon-related services, CMA has 

made the following data and products available in its 

real-time database, and established the quality control 

system for the automatic precipitation observations 

obtained from regional stations. Automatic quality 

control and manually checked are being made for 

precipitation observations in real-time to ensure the 

high reliability for the data. 

2009 

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• Automatic weather station sunshine observations 

• AMDAR data in BUFR codes 

• Automatic soil moisture observations 

• FY3A L1C products 

• Hourly precipitation observations with quality 

information obtained from regional automatic 

stations in flood season 

• Dropsound and Dripsound data 

• Lightning location data 

CMA’s video conference system has strengthened the 

backup function, several sub-meeting rooms such as 

the CAAC venue is constructed, and standardization 

work is also improved significantly. 

The design and manufacture of the dual-band 

emergency vehicle for meteorological service delivery 

were completed, and the construction of portable 

stations was accomplished, which improved CMA’s 

emergency response capabilities. 

CMA has upgraded its metadata from WMO profile 

version 0.2 to version 1.1, and it developed the OAI- 

PMH based metadata synchronization, DAR and data 

subscription in its WIS/GISC system. 

Operational Run of Guangzhou Tropical Cyclone 

Model 

A next-generation NWP system for the South China 

Sea area (Guangzhou Tropical Cyclone Model, referred 

to as “GZTCM”), was developed by the Guangzhou 

Institute of Tropical and Oceanic Meteorology, and it 

was put into operational run in 2009. The GZTCM’s 

resolution was increased to 0.36º and the forecast 

period extended to 120 hours. Bogus and typhoon 

re-positioning were used for the initialization of 

GZTCM and 3-dimensional variational assimilation (of 

GRAPES_3D-Var) was adopted to further improve 

the pattern of water vapor advection program and 

re-adjust the physics schemes. Thus, GZTCM has 

improved the forecasts of TC tracks and intensities 

and it is also capable to forecast TC formation process 

to some extent. 

A mesoscale reanalysis system was established 

during the intensive observation period (IOP) 

Based on the operational GRAPES model, a system 

was set up for hourly cycle and assimilation, which 

assimilated conventional surface, upper air, radar, 

aircraft data, cloud-derived wind, satellite-based 

thickness, etc. Figures 12 and 13 show TS Goni (0907) 

and TY Koppu (0915) in the hourly field of assimilation 

and analysis, respectively. Figures 12 (a) (b) (c) 

shows Goni 10 hours before, during and 26 hours 

after landing overlapped with 850hPa wind field and 

radar echoes, which relatively well captured TC wind 

field structure and precipitation. Figures 13 (a) (b) (c) 

shows 850hPa wind field plus radar echoes of TS 

Goni 11 hours before, during landing and 7 hours after 

landing, which gave good description of TC wind field 

structure and precipitation. 

Fig. 12: 850hPa Wind and Radar Echo (shade) of Goni 

(0907) through Assimilation Analysis 

(a)10 hours before landing , (b)landing, (c)26 hours 

after landing.

Fig. 13: 850hPa Wind and Radar Echo (shade) of 

Koppu (0915) through Assimilation Analysis (a)11 

hours before landing; (b)landing; (c)7 hours after 

landing. 

A field observation experiment 

An outfield observation experiment was launched in 

2008 and 2009 and tropical cyclones Kammuri, Nuri, 

and Hagupit in 2008 as well as Goni and Koppu in 2009 

were obtained regarding their motions. Observational 

data was acquired at the Maoming scientific 

experiment base. Field experiments were conducted 

and observational data were collected, and other 



cooperators assisted in selecting observation sites 

and conducting observations. Main field observation 

equipment used in the 2008 field experiments 

included a wind profiler, a microwave radiometer, and 

a mobile microwave radiometer at Beishan station, in 

Maoming base. Main outfield observation equipment 

used in the 2009 experiments consisted of 4 fixed 

wind profilers (Beishan of Maoming, Zhuhai and 

Shenzhen), a mobile observing system (including a 

mobile wind profiler and ultrasonic pulse instrument), 

and a GPS sounding set. 

Figure 4 shows that the mobile wind profiler at 

Taishan, Guangdong province, captured the TS Goni 

as it passed the observation site and the wind speed 

decreased and then increased, indicating that the 

centre of the typhoon was going through the site and 

began to tilt at 2,500 m level. 

Fig. 14: The Vertical Wind Profile of TS Goni (0907) by 

Mobile Radar Wind Profiler 

Figure 5 shows, under the impact of Koppu, the 

mobile observation system on Hailing Island of 

Yangjiang recorded significant deflection in wind 

direction without showing any TC-eye structure, at 

the observation point. 

Fig. 15:Vertical Wind Profile of TS Koppu (0915) from 

mobile radar wind profiler 

Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA carried out the 

field experiment on typhoon “Morakot “ that landed in 

2009 

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southern China at 21:10, August 6 2009 and at 7:46 

on August 10 2009. The mobile radar observation 

was made at Sports Centre in Ningde City of Fujian 

Province (119.3295° E, 26.3975° N). A variety of 

weather information about typhoon “Morakot” (August 

6-10) and the atmospheric boundary layer before 

and after landing were obtained, including GPS data 

observed about every 3 hours, as long as 80 hours 

or more consecutive wind profiler radar, ultrasonic 

anemometer-thermometer system, automatic 

weather stations, laser raindrop spectrometer, as well 

as multi-channel microwave radiometer observations. 

b. Hydrological Achievements/Results - Ministry of 

Water Resources (MWR) 

To improve capacity of hydrological service, 

the Hydrological Bureau, MWR upgraded its 

comprehensive operational hydrological systems 

across the country and organized Phase 2 project 

for establishing a National Flood Control and 

Drought Relief Database. Breaking events monitoring 

display and teleconference functions were added 

to address urgent water-related public events. 

The function of flash flood warning and feedback 

module was improved to achieve automatic retrieval 

of warning information and automatic feedbacks. 

GIS functionality was upgraded and improved to 

enhance inquiry efficiency in flood control. Rainfall 

distribution mapping system suitable for PDA devices 

was developed, which provides new functions for 

accessing rainfall.. Warning information access was 

also enabled, while existing geographic information 

and data were improved. 

Moreover, the Hydrological Bureau organized and 

held workshops and seminars on hydrological 

information prediction at different levels and for 

different practitioners aimed at enhancing local 

hydrological service capabilities. For example, 

Hydrological Prediction Training Course for Tibetans 

was held in September 2009 in Linzhi, Tibet AR. Over 

30 local hydrological staff attended it. In October, a 

National Hydrological Information Prediction Capacity 

Workshop was held in Xining, Qinghai Province, and 

representatives from hydrological establishments 

in 31 provinces, river basin authorities and Xinjiang 

Production and Construction Corps attended it. 



N/A 


Results 

Research progress on typhoon mechanisms 

Unusual Variation of Landing Tropical Cyclone 

Behavior and Associated Physical Mechanism - A 

National Basic Research Program of China (2009 - 

2013) 

A 5-year project entitled “Unusual Variation of 

Landing Tropical Cyclone Behavior and Associated 

Physical Mechanism” is funded by the Chinese 

National Basic Research Program in2009, aiming 

to improve the forecast ability of landing TCs by 

studying the mechanism of unusual change of 

landing TC behaviors, including track, intensity, 

high wind and heavy precipitation. Leading institute 

of the project is Shanghai Typhoon Institute/ 

CMA in collaboration with the Chinese Academy of 

Meteorological Sciences, National Meteorological 

Centre, Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology 

under CMA, Institute of Atmospheric Physics/CAS, 

Nanjing University, Beijing University and Nanjing 

Information Science and Technology University. 

The main goals are to: (1) reveal the ocean-landatmosphere 

interaction characteristics during TC 

landing process; (2) understand the role of oceanland-atmosphere 

interaction that leads to unusual 

change of landing TC behavior including the its track, 

intensity and torrential rain; (3) develop an oceanland-atmosphere 

coupled TC model and ensemble TC 

prediction system; (4) improve the theory and models 

for landing TC prediction, including the landing point, 

intensity change, high-wind and heavy precipitation 

and related disasters; (5) set up a high resolution four 

dimensional analyses system for the fine structure 

of landing TC and provide high-quality re-analyses 

datasets for typical landing TCs. 

Research progress on rain bands associated with 

tropical cyclones 

Fine-scale spiral rain bands at a length ranging from 

10 to nearly 100 km with a band width varying from 5 

to 15 km have been simulated in the inner-core region 

of a typhoon using a high-resolution model. The finescale 

rain bands have two types: one intersecting the 

eyewall and causing damaging wind streaks, and the 

other distributed azimuthally along the inner edge 

of the eyewall with a relatively short lifetime. The 

formation of the high-velocity wind streaks results 

from the interaction of the azimuthal flow with the 

banded vertical vorticity structure triggered by tilting 

of the horizontal vorticity. The vertical advection of 

azimuthal momentum also leads to acceleration of 

tangential flow at a relatively high altitude. Further 

investigation suggests that the boundary inflection

points are related tightly to the development of the 

fine-scale rain bands. In particular, the presence of 

the level of inflow reversal in the boundary layer is a 

crucial factor controlling the formation of these bands. 

The near-surface wavy peaks of vertical vorticity 

always follow the inflection points in radial flow. 

The mesoscale vortices and associated convective 

updrafts in the eyewall are believed to strengthen 

the activity of fine-scale bands, and the updrafts can 

trigger the formation of the bands as they reside in 

the environment with inflow reversal in the boundary 

layer. 

Research progress on inner-dynamic core 

evolution of tropical cyclones 

Eyewall contraction, breakdown, and reformation 

of a typhoon are successfully simulated by a highresolution 

numerical model. The eyewall accordantly 

shrinks through the whole troposphere prior to landfall, 

while it presents different changes in the lower and 

upper troposphere, respectively, after landing. It is 

found that the dry air advected into the storm inner 

core through a low-θe channel, the reduced surface 

latent heat transfer, and the increased inflows in 

the coastal region are associated with the eyewall 

contraction. Accompanied with the high-to-low 

wavenumber change in the vortex Rossby waves, 

the initial polygonal eyewall transforms to an elliptical 

one. Such a wavenumber change is likely associated 

with the change of interaction between the rain bands 

and the eyewall. A corresponding tangential wind 

budget indicates that a strong acceleration due to the 

total contribution of the eddy and mean circulation is 

located in the lower layer in the eyewall during prelandfall, 

and the mean contributions to the change in 

the tendency of the azimuthally averaged tangential 

wind counteract the eddy contributions. 

By analyzing the results of a high-resolution numerical 

simulation, it is found that the mesovortices form 

only in the lower troposphere in the eyewall in the 

presence of the non-unidirectional vertical shear. 

Both closed and unclosed circulations associated 

with these vortices are observed. In addition, some 

of the meso-vortices are accompanied by small-scale 

updrafts, while no updrafts are found in the other 

vortices. If the environmental inflow meets the outflow 

of the vortex circulations, or if the vortices themselves 

act as obstacles to prevent the inflow, small-scale 

updrafts associated with the mesovortices occur. 

The mesovortices and corresponding updrafts move 

cyclonically along the eyewall, characterized by the 

behavior of vortex Rossby waves. When moving in 



the down-shear direction, the convective updrafts 

strengthen, so that the associated mesovortices also 

become stronger by stretching the vorticity tubes. By 

contrast, the updrafts weaken as they proceed towards 

the upshear direction. At the middle and upper levels 

of the eyewall, there are no meso-vortices and the 

strongest convection with the small-scale intense 

updrafts is concentrated on the southeastern side 

of the eyewall. The updrafts > 1 and 2 m/s occupy 

only 14% and 7% of the eyewall region, respectively. 

However, the updrafts >1 m/s contribute to 30% of 

the mass transport in the eyewall. This indicates that, 

although these small-scale intense updrafts occupy 

relative smaller areas in the eyewall, they play an 

important role in the mass transport in the eyewall. It 

is further found that the active updrafts may appear 

positively buoyant. In addition, the locations of the 

buoyancy of large magnitude are superposed with the 

strongest upward motions, a further indicative of the 

significant role of the small-scale intensive updrafts. 

An observational analysis of satellite blackbody 

temperature data and radar images suggests that 

the mesoscale vortex generation and merging 

process appeared to be essential for a tropicaldepression 

(TD)-related heavy rain in Shanghai, 

China. A numerical simulation reproduced the 

observed mesoscale vortex generation and merging 

process and the corresponding rain pattern, and then 

the model outputs were used to study the related 

dynamics through diagnosing the potential vorticity 

(PV) equation. The TD was found to weaken firstly at 

the lower levels and then at the upper levels due to 

negative horizontal PV advection and diabatic heating 

effects. The meso-vortices developed gradually also 

from the lower to the upper levels as a result of 

positive horizontal PV advection and diabatic heating 

effects on the left downshear quadrant of the TD. One 

of these newly-generated vortices replaced the TD 

ultimately, while others merged due to the horizontal 

PV advection process. This triggered the very heavy 

rain in Shanghai. 

A new parameterization scheme of sea surface 

momentum roughness length for all wind regimes 

including high winds under tropical cyclone conditions 

is constructed based on measurements from Global 

Positioning System dropsondes. It reproduces the 

observed regime transition, namely, an increase of the 

drag coefficient with the increase of wind speed up to 

40 ms -1 followed by a decrease with further increase 

of wind speed. The effect of this parameterization 

on the structure and intensity of tropical cyclones is 

evaluated using TCM4. The results show that the final 

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intensity is increased by 10.5% (8.9%) in the maximum 

surface wind speed and by 8.1 hPa (5.9 hPa) increase 

in the minimum sea surface pressure drop with 

(without) dissipative heating. This intensity increase 

is found to be mainly due to the reduced frictional 

dissipation in the surface layer and with little to do 

with either the surface enthalpy flux or latent heat 

release in the eyewall convection. The effect of the 

new parameterization on the storm structure is found 

insignificant and occur only in the inner core region 

with the increase in tangential winds in the eyewall 

and the increase in temperature anomalies in the 

eye. This is because the difference in drag coefficient 

appears only in a small area under the eyewall. 

Impact of large-scale environments on tropical 

cyclone activity 

Based on the 1°×1°NCEP reanalysis data, the track and 

intensity of typhoon Neoguri (2008) were analyzed. 

The results indicate that the change of the track of 

Neoguri was closely related to the change of the 

subtropical high. Besides the inner-core structure, 

environmental flow, and surface influences, the 

vortex scale contributed to the intensity change. The 

abnormally northward ridge line of the subtropical 

high and the abnormally high SST in the South China 

Sea caused by the former La Nina event were the 

main reasons for the formation and development of 

typhoon Noguri. Additionally, using the 1°×1°NCEP 

reanalysis data, 2.5°×2.5°NECP reanalysis data, and 

1°×1° NOAA SST data, we find that, the movement 

of Fengshen was associated with the subtropical 

high. The intensity change was not only related to its 

asymmetric structure and environment flow, but also 

to the invasion of cold air at the low levels from south, 

which weakened Typhoon Fengshen. 

Research progress on wind and precipitation 

structure associated with tropical cyclones 

Through analyzing hourly rainfall dataset from 

raingauge observations and radar-derived rainfall, 

it was found that typhoon Saomai (2006) had dual 

concentric eyewalls before its landfall, and during the 

period, the inner and outer eyewalls as well as its 

rain band were dominated with heavy rainfall, and 

rainfall rate increased with time, the mean rainfall 

rate in the outer-eyewall region was higher than that 

in the inner-eyewall region, but the rainfall rate did 

not decrease as the radius of outer eye-wall became 

smaller. However, the rainfall rate of the outer rain 

band changed little with time, although it was slightly 

reduced. The mean rainfall rate in the inner-core 

region abruptly increased about three hours before 

Saomai’s landfall, and then it was weakened, with 

its rainfall rate being rapidly decreased after landing. 

The precipitation of typhoon Saomai was in an 

asymmetric structure. Before landing, the maximum 

rainfall occurred in the right quadrant relative to its 

track. After landing, heaviest precipitation appeared in 

the rear quadrant of the inner- and outer eye-walls. 

Based on the results of a high-resolution simulation 

with the finest grid size of 600 meters, the evolution 

of the energy cascade between different scales and 

the circulation structure in landfall was examined. 

The helicity on different scales is also investigated, 

accompanied with diagnostic analysis of vertical shear, 

convective available potential energy, and potential 

vorticity. A boundary dynamic and thermodynamic 

mechanism for heavy rainfall induced by landing 

tropical cyclones and an associated conceptual model 

are provided. 

The thermodynamic and dynamic structure of a 

landing tropical depression (TD) was analyzed 

based on high-resolution model output. It was found 

that contours of generalized equivalent potential 

temperature (q*) near the TD centre were almost 

vertical to the horizontal surface. Then, a new 

vector, namely the generalized convective vorticity 

vector (CVV*), was used to diagnose the rainfall 

process associated with the landing TD. Since CVV* 

could reflect both the secondary circulation and the 

variation of horizontal moist baroclinicity, it was found 

that the vertical integration of CVV* can reflect the 

rainfall areas better, with high values corresponding 

to heavy rain areas. By carrying out a sensitivity 

numerical experiment of removing the HangzhouBay, 

it was also found that the CVV* was weaker than 

the control experiment, corresponding with the 

decrease of rainfall. Further analyses showed that the 

HangzhouBayprovides good water vapor channel and 

flux of latent heat and sensible heat to the TD system 

and therefore, it created a favourable condition for 

the genesis and development of meso-scale cloud 

clusters around the TD and its rainfall. 

Through investigating the temporal and spatial 

variations of precipitation structure within 300 km 

in radius of the typhoon centre by using reflectivity 

data taken from Doppler radars located at Wenzhou 

and Taiwan, six typhoons landed on southeast coast 

of China in 2004~2007 were selected to examine the 

change of precipitation distributions about 18 h before 

landfall and 6 h after landfall. The axial-symmetric 

component of typhoon rainfall, represented by the 

radial distribution of azimuthal mean reflectivity, 

revealed that the maximum rainfall occurred in the

eyewall and that the next maximum rainfall took 

place in the outer rain bands about 9-18 hours 

before landing. With increasing storm intensity, the 

maximum rainfall rate increased, while its radius from 

the typhoon centre decreased. When typhoons are 

approaching the coast, the mean rainfall rate in the 

inner-core region increases abruptly, accompanied 

with the rapid contraction of the precipitation toward 

the typhoon centre. The highest strengthening rate of 

the mean rain rate in the inner core of the six typhoons 

reaches to 3.2. The precipitation of the peripheral 

rain bands concentrates to the typhoon centre 

simultaneously, and the rate of contraction decrease 

with the intensification of storms. After landing, the 

eye is filled by rain, thus the intensity decreases 

quickly and the precipitation shrinks continuously. 

As a result, the amount of rainfall in the inner core 

attenuates gradually. Finally, a model was proposed to 

fit the observed precipitation curve before TC landfall. 

This model can be used to quantitatively describe 

the outline of azimuthal mean rain of typhoons, and 

gives out the characteristics of two-peak profiles of 

the outline. The maximum of the RMSE between the 

observed curves and the fitnesses was 5.3 mm/h, 

while the minimum was only 0.46 mm/h, thus the 

model can fit the real profile of typhoon precipitation. 

Water vapor, cloud, and surface rainfall budgets 

associated with the landing Typhoon Krosa (2007) 

were analyzed based on a two-dimensional cloudresolving 

model simulation. The simulation data that 

were validated with observations were examined 

to study physical causes associated with surface 

rainfall processes during the landfall. The time- 

and domain-mean analysis showed that when 

Krosa approached the eastern coast of China, the 

water vapor convergence over land caused a local 

atmospheric moistening and a net condensation that 

further produced surface rainfall and an increase 

of cloud hydrometeor concentration. Meanwhile, 

latent heating was balanced by advective cooling 

and local atmospheric warming. One day later, the 

enhancement of net condensation led to an increase 

of surface rainfall and local atmospheric drying, while 

the water vapor convergence weakened as a result 

of the landfall-induced deprivation of water vapor 

flux. At the same time, the latent heating is mainly 

compensated by the advective cooling. Further 

weakening of vapor convergence enhanced the local 

atmospheric drying, while the net condensation and 

associated surface rainfall was maintained. The latent 

heating was ballanced by advective cooling and a 

local atmospheric cooling. 



Landing TC intensity change 

Some typhoons become intensified rapidly when 

they approach the land, which is a big challenge to 

forecasting. Typhoon Saomei (0608) was a typical 

case. A dynamic analysis was made on its abrupt 

intensification. The results showed that the total kinetic 

energy in the lower troposphere increased suddenly, 

mainly depending on the increasing rotational kinetic 

energy. Meanwhile, these two energies in the upper 

levels significantly decrease while the divergent 

kinetic energy rises. The downward transport of the 

upper tropospheric kinetic energy is a major reason 

behind a rapid intensification. 

After TC landfall, the intensity could be changed with 

the variation of the underlying features such as lakes. 

Statistical study was carried on TC activity from 1949 

to 2001. Results demonstrate that a total of 36 TCs 

moved deep into land and passed through lakes in this 

53 years, and all occur in June-September. These 

TCs have long duration over land and are usually 

strong during landfall. The lakes tends to delay the 

intensity reduction, in other words, when passing 

through inland lakes, most of them maintain or 

decrease their central pressure while increasing wind 

speed. However, this is just the statistics based on 

observations, and the mechanism of this phenomenon 

needs further studies. 

TC mesoscale structure and rainstorm 

The development of models provides a good platform 

for meso-scale TC researches. The characteristics of 

quasi-balanced and unbalanced vertical circulations 

are diagnosed by applying the PV- w equation 

system to a high-resolution simulation of Typhoon 

Nari (0116) in order to gain insight into their relative 

roles in organizing process of deep moist convection 

in tropical storms. Results show that quasi-balanced 

flows represent well the organized circulations in 

the storm. The spatial and temporal distributions 

of short waves indicate that the unbalance flow is 

nonstationary and associated with the dispersion of 

gravity-inertia1 wave. It is found that when the lowlevel 

weak updrafts caused by the quasi-balanced 

dynamic forcing are intense enough, the release of 

latent heat results in the superimposition of quasibalanced 

and unbalanced updrafts, which form the 

strong updrafts in the eyewall. This process, together 

with the compensating and adjusting processes of 

unbalanced flows, plays important roles in creating 

deep moist convection in tropical storms. 

Based on modeling of Typhoon Aere (0418), using 

band-pass filter and numerical modeling to separate 

2009 

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the large- and meso-scale system, a vorticity 

equation was derived, which includes interactions 

mechanism of various scales to diagnose and analyze 

the main factors for the development of mesoscale 

systems and the interaction mechanism of the 

large- and meso-scale systems. Results indicate 

that the interactions are an important mechanism 

for development and intensification. When the mesoscale 

systems develop to the certain stage, divergence 

and twisting terms dominated by the allocation of the 

divergence, vorticity and vertical velocity fields of 

the meso-scale systems may cause the dissipation 

of the meso-scales. The inner adjusting mechanism 

determines the meso-scale character of the heavy 

rain from temporal prospective. 

The study on the local heavy rainfall caused by 

meso-scale convective system (MCS) was a focus 

of attention in the past. High resolution satellite data 

showed that MCS associated with heavy rainfall 

caused by Typhoon Bilis (0604) developed quickly 

and kept active, but distributed asymmetrically. After 

Bilis landfall, structure transfered into asymmetric 

baroclinic gradually impacted by the mid-latitude 

baroclinic atmosphere. Thermal wind deviation force, 

induced by dynamic and thermodynamic unbalance, 

produced a secondary circulation, in which triggered 

the development of MCS in unstable stratification. 

Sensitivity experiments are performed in simulating 

Bilis (0604). Results indicated that the influence of 

environmental vertical wind shear on wave number-1 

asymmetric rainfall structure of Bilis was significantly 

more important than the terrain, underlying surface 

properties during landfall, and storm speeds. But 

the factors that have impacts on convection pattern 

may vary from one to another. For instance, the 

stronger convection was located in the eastern and 

northern quadrants for both TCs Chanchu (0601) and 

Prapiroon (0606). But the former is mainly associated 

with the influences of a strong environmental vertical 

wind shear and low-level horizontal wind shear, while 

the latter is influenced by low-level convergence and 

divergence. 

Oceanic effects 

Statistical characteristics of the multi-year variation 

of the frequency of TCs activity in 1949-2003 over 

the Northwest Pacific and the relationship with 

sea surface temperature (SST) were studied, and 

it was found that they had good correlation. The 

negative SST anomaly in equatorial eastern Pacific 

would result in early positive anomaly of TCs over 

West Pacific at later stage, which was related to 

abnormality in atmospheric circulation. However, SST 

of the Northwest Pacific had a lag-correlation with TC 

frequency. By analyzing the effective vertical diffusion 

and temperature abnormality induced by cyclone, 

it was found that this phenomena was caused by 

stirring and mixing processes in the upper layer. 

The SST pattern not only affects TC frequency, 

but also their tracks, intensity, etc... Sensitivity 

modeling experiments for Typhoons Chanchu (0601) 

demonstrated that decreasing SST could change a TC 

track in a complicated way and the lowest TC pressure 

would change about 16hPa when SST varies in about 

1°C. The wind field of Typhoon Dujuan (0313) was 

very sensitive to SST, strong wind could be induced 

rapidly by high SST. Both studies suggested that the 

influence of different SST on TC was mainly done by 

the changing sensible heat flux and latent heat flux 

between the sea and the atmosphere. The closer it is 

to a TC centre, the more evident the effect would be. 

Progress on typhoon prediction techniques 

Error analysis of operational forecasting of typhoon 

tracks 

Through the detailed analysis of the subjective forecasts 

issued by CMA, JMA, and JTWC, the operational TC 

track forecasts had been largely improved in the last 

12 years (1997-2008). Much improvement was made 

in 48-h forecast than the 24-h forecast. However, 

most improvement in TC track forecast was noted in 

early 21 st century (2000-2004), little progress was 

made in recent years (2005-2008). Further analysis 

shows that the 24h TC track forecast error of weak 

typhoons is 40-50 km, which is larger than that of the 

stronger typhoons, and the TC track forecasts over 

the Yellow Sea and the ocean east to Japan is found 

less reliable than those made for the other regions. 

For the typhoons over the South China Sea, the 24hour 

TC track forecasts issued by CMA and JTWC 

seem to more accurate than those from JMA, and 

JTWC forecasts are better in the 48 hour forecasts. 

Dynamic Similitude Scheme for TC Quantitative 

Precipitation Forecasts 

A prediction scheme based on the dynamic similarity 

was proposed for TC quantitative precipitation 

forecasts. The scheme adopts initial TC parameters, 

initial and historical weather patterns, physical fields 

and other NWP products, to provide an objective 

and multivariate similarity criteria for judging 

current large-scale atmospheric environments, 

and their future trends. A similarity index is set up 

by using a successive dynamic method, which is 

nonlinear in nature and can quantitatively describe

the degree of similarity. According to this index, 

several historical tropical cyclones were identified 

as the samples similar to the predicted ones. 6-48 

precipitation predictions were made at each station 

using the weighted similarity index from historical 

precipitation records. Tests demonstrated that this 

technique showed a certain prediction skill in terms of 

quantitative precipitation at specific sites, compared 

with the climatology and persistency method. 

Vortex Cycle Assimilation in GRAPES-TCM 

Based on MC-3DVAR approach (Liang et al., 2007a, 

b), vortex cycle assimilation was implemented on the 

IBM supercomputer for the initialization of GRAPES- 

TCM. The real time verification on the new scheme, 

in comparison with the original operational vortex 

relocation scheme, showed that the new scheme 

improved the 24-48h TC track forecasts in 2009 to 

some extent. 

Advances of Physics Parameterization Schemes for 

GRAPES-TCM 

An improved Kain-Fritsch scheme (Ma and Tan, 

2009) was implanted in GRAPES-TCM. In addition, in 

an effort to improve the TC intensity prediction, the 

original roughness drag parameterization scheme in 

GRAPES-TCM was improved according to a number 

of recent observational and numerical studies (Powell 

et al. 2003; Moon et al. 2007). 

Tropical Cyclone Initialization based on UWPBL 

Model 

A new approach was proposed to improve the 

initialization of regional TC prediction model. This 

approach first modified the roughness according to 

the TC-induced high wind in the planetary boundary 

layer model. Then the QuikSCAT sea surface winds 

were used to satisfy the related gradient winds, and 

wind pressure fields controlled by the secondary 

circulations and thermal stratification in the boundary 

layer. Finally, the 3DVAR was used to assimilate the 

wind fields in the meso-scale model, to improve 

initialization of TC circulation and prediction. . The 

numerical sensitivity experiments on two typical 

typhoons suggested that this approach improved 

TC initial wind fields and intensity at sea level while 

maintaining the non-geostrophic equilibrium between 

TC wind fields and the steering flow. 

Development on Regional Ocean-Atmosphere 

Coupled Model 

A Regional Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Coupled 

Model was preliminary developed in combination 

with an advanced ocean model, GRAPES-TCM, 



and a numerical coupler for dynamical and energy 

transition. Numerical experiments on this coupled 

model showed promising results. 

TC Ensemble prediction 

The sensitivity of TC rainfall and intensity prediction 

to physics parameterization was preliminary 

investigated. Results provided a basis for upgrading 

the Shanghai Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System. 

Research was carried out to apply dropwindsondes 

and intensive sounding data in typhoon forecasting 

models. 

Fig. 16:The Track of Typhoon Morakot (0908) 

(Red curve: assimilation tests; blue curve: control test; 

black curve: observations) 

For the control test (i.e., in the operational model), 

the typhoon track prediction was satisfactory for 

72 h. For the 06-24 h forecasts, the largest error 

was 91 km. The maximum error appeared in 30 h 

(137 km). For the forecast from then on to 72-h, the 

error was less than 80 km, suggesting that GZTCM 

was relatively accurate in forecasting the tracks of 

Typhoon Morakot. Compared with the control test, 

the assimilation test was more than 30 km larger in 

the 66-h forecast error but smaller in the other time 

periods than those in the control test. Clearly, with the 

assimilation of dropwindsondes, the typhoon path was 

forecasted much better within 72 hours. For typhoon 

intensity prediction, the two tests were weaker than 

observation for the time within 54 hours but stronger 

than it beyond 54 hours, as shown in Figure 12. Within 

72 hours, except for being a bit poorer in 24-36 hours 

in the assimilation test than in the control, the forecast 

was closer to reality at other times. 

Progress on short-term climate prediction in 

relation to typhoon activity 

New schemes for seasonal prediction of frequencies 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


of TCs affecting China, South China and East China, 

which are determined by the CMA’s specialized wind 

and precipitation observational dataset for Tropical 

Cyclones, have been developed and put into quasioperational 

run in Shanghai Typhoon Institute of CMA. 

Progress in storm surges and sea waves 

A numerical forecast system for storm surges in the 

coastal area of China was established by the Shanghai 

Typhoon Institute based on the 3-D baroclinic ocean 

circulation model POM. The typhoon model wind field 

was constructed considering asymmetry of wind 

fields and it adopted a more reliable equation for sea 

surface wind stress under strong wind. Many storm 

surges over past years were well re-represented and 

the model showed good performance in real time 

forecast. Apart from graphic displays of prediction 

outputs, other displays in MICAPS (Meteorological 

Information Comprehensive Analysis and Process 

System) format was also used to meet the needs for 

the operational platform. 

The operational wave forecast system was established 

based on the third generation wave model of 

WAVEWATCH III (WW3). And the SWAN nesting with 

WaveWatch was used for wave forecast in coastal 

seas. 

Training Course on Meteorological Satellite data 

application in the weather analysis and forecast 

From January to October, 2009, a training course 

was held in CMATC on Meteorological Satellite data 

application in the weather analysis and forecast for 62 

participants. The training mainly includes fundamental 

principle of satellite meteorology; application of 

multi-channel observation to weather and climate 

analysis and forecasting; satellite monitoring and 

application of mesoscale system; creation and 

application of TOVS data; derived gust products 

from geostationary meteorological satellite; typhoon 

location and intensity estimation with satellite images; 

precipitation estimation techniques with satellite data; 

analysis application of water vapor imagery; analysis 

application of TBB; generation and application of OLR 

data; FY-2 satellite cloud product introduction; FY-2 

satellite sand storm monitoring principle and product 

introduction; large scale cloud system analysis; FY-2 

satellite dense fog monitoring principle and product 

introduction; FY-2 satellite image interpretation in the 

nowcasting; the operational use of FY-2 satellite data 

in South China weather forecasting. 

Distance Training on Basic Meteorological 

Satellite data analysis and application 

From January to October, 2009, CMATC held one 

distance training course on basic meteorological 

satellite data analysis and application. Course mainly 

covered development and detection principle of 

meteorological satellite; image classification and their 

major characters; methods for identifying satellite 

image; common cloud types and cloud system 

characteristics identification in cloud imagery in mid 

and high latitudes; tropical cyclone and other tropical 

weather cloud system; rainfall analysis and forecasting 

with satellite image; analysis and forecasting of heavy 

rain and strong convection; satellite monitoring and 

products application of mesoscale system; TBB 

data in the application of typhoon and other tropical 

system; large scale cloud system analysis method; 

satellite data analysis to sustained torrential rainfall 

caused by severe tropical storm Bilis; Satellite picture 

analysis in summer in Huaihe river basin; mesoscale 

analysis on Jinan; excessively heavy rainfall in “7.18 

case”; a preliminary analysis of features and causes 

of the snow storm over southern China in January 

2008. 

Training course on the application of new 

generation Doppler weather radar 

From January to October in 2009, the CMATC 

organized two training courses on the application of 

new generation Doppler weather radar for 95 trainees, 

the training courses mainly covered:the principle of 

Doppler radar, identification of velocity chart, quality 

control of radar data, the characteristics of radar echo 

in convective storm, radar products and algorithms, 

nowcasting in strong convective weather. 

A distance training course on the application of new 

generation weather radar data on meteorological 

operations 


organized a distance training course on the application 

of new generation weather radar data to meteorological 

operations. The training course mainly covered: 

introduction of the principles of new generation 

weather radar and operation application; character 

and significance of the speed echo data, analysis and 

application of speed echo in large-scale precipitation; 

features of speed echo in meso and micro-scale 

strong convective weather; characteristics of Doppler 

velocity of typhoons; analysis and applications of 

spectral width data; analysis of radar reflectivity and 

Secondary products.

Advanced training seminar on theory and method 

of meteorological data assimilation 


organized an advanced training seminar on theory 

and method of meteorological data assimilation 

for 60 participants, the training mainly included 

mathematical interpolation and meteorological 

interpolation; the noise filtering and mathematical 

methods; optimal estimation theory and application in 

statistics; variational theory and application in calculus; 

optimization theory, methods and applications; the 

definition, development and application of the adjoint 

model; different data assimilation methods and 

their approximate assumptions; characteristics of 

GPS occultation data and its assimilation method; 

characteristics of satellite radiation data and its 

assimilation methods; purposes, methods and cases 

of quality control. 

Advance Training course on Sea-land-atmosphere 

interaction, assess interaction and assessment 

techniques 


organized an advanced training course on Sealand-atmosphere 

interaction, assess interaction 

and assessment techniques for 40 participants, the 

training mainly included the prior knowledge of sealand-atmosphere 

interaction; feedback process and 

its effect on tropical sea - atmosphere interaction; 

climate noise and its effects on local sea - atmosphere 

interaction with comprehensive feedback process of 

the sea–land system. 


- National Meteorological Centre, National Climate 

Centre, National Satellite Meteorological Centre, 

CMA Training Centre, Shanghai Typhoon Institute, 

Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Oceanic 

Meteorology, and Chinese Academy of Meteorological 

Sciences. 

Improvement in GTS 

The Beijing-Hanoi link was upgraded from 75baud 

ASYNC circuit to 64kbps IP link in November, 2009. 

The upgrade of Beijing-Ulan Bator GTS circuit is 

ongoing. RTH Beijing backup connections via internet 

for exchanging GTS data with NMC Hanoi and NMC 

Ulan Bator. 

The Second International Workshop on TC Landing 

Processes (IWTCLP-II) 

WMO IWTCLP-II was held in Shanghai China from 10 

to 19 October 2009. The purpose of this meeting is 

to assess the recent findings and forecast advances 



since last session and to improve forecast and early 

warning on landing TCs. This event was also a forum 

to transfer new science and technology to National 

Meteorological and Hydrological Services in TC 

landing countries in the world. The workshop focused 

on reduction of disaster risks through improved 

forecast of landing TCs. 



N/A 


Typhoon Committee’s Effectiveness and 

International Collaboration. (List progress on the 





N/A 


Entrusted by ESCAP TC /WMO, the Hydrological 

Bureau of the Pearl River Water Resources 

Commission collaborated with the Department of 

Geography Planning of the Sun Yat-Sen University 

for a workshop and training program oriented at Thai 

Meteorological Department (TMD) from July 20- 26, 

2009. Over 20 representatives from secretariat of 

TC, TMD Hydrologic and Meteorological Research 

Centre, the Bureau of Hydrology and the Foreign 

Affairs Office of the Pearl River Water Resources 

Commission, the Sun Yat-Sen University attended 

the event. Experts of the University and the Pearl 

River Water Resources Commission gave lectures to 

TMD representatives on prediction technique, made 

field tour along the mainstream of Xijiang River, and 

visited local hydrological departments in Guangxi AR 

and Guangdong province. 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


Fig. 17: The training workshop held at Thai 

Meteorological Department (TMD) hosted by the Pearl 

River Water Resources Commission collaborated with 

the Department of Geography Planning of the Sun 

Yat-Sen University 

To further promote the flood prediction technology 

of China, the Bureau of Hydrology of the Ministry of 

Water Resources of China completed the joint project 

of OFFSIA and provided at free software, technical 

report and instruction for users (English versions) to 

TC secretariat who publicized the documents on its 

website for its member countries/cities to download 

and use. China will continue to provide technical 

support for use of China Flood Forecasting System 

by TC members. 

In 2009, the Hydrological Bureau under the Ministry 

of Water Resources sent 2 professionals to the OJB 

training program held in Malaysia. 



N/A 


Results 

N/A 


Assessment of the impact of climate change on 

TC frequency and intensity 

A scientist of the Shanghai Typhoon Institute (STI) 

participated in the ‘Assessment of the impact of 

climate change on TC frequency and intensity’ as a 

member of the expert group. Up to now, literature 

references and recent related progress in China 

have been provided to the coordinator, as well as 

suggestions on data differences and correct usage of 

statistical parameters and methods in assessment. 

Typhoon Forum 

The Typhoon Forum, which is oriented to Members of 

the Typhoon Committee, was officially set up in July 

2009. It is open to all nominated users and the Shanghai 

Typhoon Institute (STI) has appointed a coordinator 

for it. The objectives of the forum are to provide a 

real-time communication platform for forecasters 

and researchers within the Asia and Pacific Typhoon 

committee, to exchange information about ongoing 

TC track, associated wind & rainfall, forecasts and 

impacts, to share and access data, to make on-line 

discussions on TC related scientific issues, all aimed 

at improving the TC forecast accuracy andreducing 

the potential damage by TCs. The forum is divided into 

3 sections, i.e. ‘TC real time information and forecast’, 

‘History cases’ and ‘Forecast verification’. So far, 

it has 38 registered users in the Typhoon Forum, 

coming from 11 Members of Typhoon Committee. 

Workshop on Typhoon Information Processing 

System (TIPS) 

A STI scientist participated in the workshop on TIPS 

held in Jeju Island, Republic of Korea in April 2009 and 

he took this opportunity to introduce to the Typhoon 

Committee Members the Typhoon Forecast Tool - a 

module of MICAPS3 (Meteorological Information 

Comprehensive Analysis and Process System). 



N/A 

III. Resource Mobilization Activities 

N/A 

IV. Update of Members’ Working Groups 

representatives 

1. Working Group on Meteorology 

Dr. LEI Xiaotu 

Director of the Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA 

Tel: +86 21 54896415 

E-mail: leixt@mail.typhoon.gov.cn 

2. Working Group on Hydrology 

Dr. LIU Zhiyu 

Deputy Division Director 

Bureau of Hydrology, Ministry of Water Resources 

2 Lane 2, Baiguang Road, Beijing 100053, China 

Tel:(86-10) 63204513 (Office) 

Fax:(86-10) 63202471 

Email:liuzy@mwr.gov.cn 

3. Working Group on Disaster Prevention and 

Preparedness 

Dr. XU Ming 

Shanghai Typhoon Institute, CMA 

4. Training and Research Coordinating Group 

Mr. QIAN Chuanhai 

Director of Typhoon and Marine Meteorological 

Forecast Centre, CMA 

Tel:(86-10) 68409321 (Office) 

Fax:(86-10) 62172956 

Email:chqian@cma.gov.cn 

5. Resource Mobilization Group

HONG KONG, CHINA 


of Life from Typhoon-related Disasters.(List 




Plan goals) 


A web-based application for automatic Dvorak 

analysis of tropical cyclones over the northwest 

Pacific and South China Sea was developed and 

on trial use as additional tools for forecasters in the 

operational analysis of tropical cyclones intensity. 

The Tropical Cyclone Information Display and 

Processing System (TIPS) was enhanced: 

i) to support the construction of multi-model 

ensemble forecast track using the ‘Motion Vector 

Consensus’ method as an alternative to positionbased 

consensus to cater for incomplete forecasts 

from individual ensemble members; 

ii) to incorporate the ensemble mean track predictions 

by the Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) of 

JMA; and 

iii) to allow the overlay of tropical cyclone strike 

probability information derived from the JMA Oneweek 

EPS, in addition to ECMWF EPS, to facilitate the 

formulation of the subjective warning track. 

Figure 10An overlay of the tropical cyclone strike 

probability map derived from the JMA One-week EPS 

on Hong Kong Observatory’s warning track 

Tropical cyclone predictions from CMA EPS 



encoded in CXML format and made available under 

the THORPEX GIFS-TIGGE project were routinely 

acquired and processed.Retrieval of EPS tropical 

cyclone products from other centres, such as NCEP 

and KMA, was underway and would be incorporated 

into TIPS to support tropical cyclone operations. 

With dual wind sensors put in place at all the reference 

anemometer stations for operation of the local tropical 

cyclone warning system, a composite data stream for 

each site was derived and presented to the forecasting 

office in a reliably and timely fashion.The Integrated 

Weather Monitoring Panel (IWMP) was also enhanced 

to assimilate the combined data stream for tropical 

cyclone monitoring. 


Since 1997, about HK$8 billion worth of major rivertraining 

works and flood-control projects had been 

completed in the New Territories over the northern 

part of Hong Kong. As a result, the flooding situation 

in the New Territories had improved significantly. 

To alleviate flooding in low-lying villages, the 

Government completed 27 village flood pumping 

stations to protect 35 villages where river-training 

works could not be effectively undertaken due to 

topography. 

For the rural areas, the construction of 26 km of 

drainage channels and 5 km of stormwater drains 

were in progress. Major flood prevention works 

under planning and design included 14 km of drainage 

channels. 

For the urban area in West Kowloon, 43 km of 

stormwater drains and 2 km of drainage tunnel had 

been completed.Plan was also in hand to construct 

another 3 km of drainage tunnel. 

For other urban areas, the construction of 32 km 

of stormwater drains and 11 km of drainage tunnel 

were underway.Further major flood prevention 

works under planning and design included 5 km of 

stormwater drains. 

Data from rain gauges operated by the Drainage 

Service Departmentand Geotechnical Engineering 

Office were relayed to the Observatory to support 

the operation of the Rainstorm Warning System, the 

Special Announcement on Flooding in the northern 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


New Territories and the Landslip Warning System. 

Savings in operational cost were achieved by using 

the government data network instead of commercial 

leased lines.General Packet Radio Services (GPRS) 

mobile networks and solar panels were used for data 

acquisition in some out-stations where land-based 

telemetry and electricity supply were unreliable.Over 

80 automated gauging stations were installed at 

major river channels in the territory to provide roundthe-clock 

real-time monitoring of water depth, rainfall 

and video surveillance. 

Over 2,000 km of drains, engineered channels, 

culverts and watercourses were inspected and 

maintained in 2008 (2009 figure to be available 

after the end of the year).At locations where flooding 

might cause high risks to local residents, local flood 

warning systems were installed to monitor the 

flooding situations and to alert them about the arrival 

of floodwater.To effectively and precisely alert the 

residents and shop-keepers in a local low-lying urban 

district on Hong Kong Island for possible flooding due 

to coincidence of high tide and heavy rainstorm, an 

automated flooding information dissemination system 

had been implemented since the 2006 wet season. 

When the forecast or recorded hydrological data reach 

the triggering criteria, advisory flood alerts would 

be sent to registered users via mobile phone Short 

Message Service (SMS) messages or pre-recorded 

voice phone calls.A list of flooding blackspots was also 

compiled to facilitate the deployment of resources to 

carry out immediate relief measures during adverse 

weather situations.(Key Result Areas 2, 4) 

To enhance typhoon rainfall forecast, a new forecast 

tool “QMORPH Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Forecast” 

was developed and launched for operational use in 

the 2009 typhoon season.The tool provides rainfall 

predictions up to 3 days ahead by extrapolating the 

microwave satellite rain rate estimate “QMORPH” 

from NOAA Climate Prediction Center along the 

subjective forecast track. 

Figure 11 Forecast rainfall accumulation for day 3 

ending 12 UTC, 9 July 2009 output by the QMORPH 

Tropical Cyclone Rainfall Forecast tool during Tropical 

Storm Soudelor (0905). 



Talks and booth displays on disaster prevention and 

preparedness were conducted by the Hong Kong 

Observatory for students and the general public. 


Results 

A training course on radar meteorology was provided 

to 10 meteorologists from 10 WMO Members by Hong 

Kong Observatory during 30 November to 4 December 

2009 covering, amongst other topics, applications of 

weather radar in tropical cyclone monitoring. 

An inter-comparison of WRF and an adapted version 

of the NHM from JMA was conducted for a number 

of tropical cyclone cases that affected Hong Kong in 

2008.Preliminary results revealed that the forecast 

skill of both models, in terms of the track and intensity 

of tropical cyclone, were in general comparable. 

Nevertheless, WRF was found to be computationally 

more efficient than NHM. 

Significant eastward biases were registered with 

nearly all the global models in the forecast track of 

Fengshen (0806).In a numerical study using WRF, 

with the introduction of a suitably constructed tropical 

cyclone bogus, the bias was largely corrected. 

The results highlighted the importance of proper 

initialization of tropical cyclone in NWP models to 

track predictions. 

(a)

(b) 

Figure 12Hong Kong Observatory best track of 

Fengshen (blue) during 00 UTC 23 June 2008 to 00 

UTC 26 June 2008 and the corresponding forecast 

tracks by (a) JMA GSM; and (b) WRF, both initialized 

at 00 UTC 23 June 2008. 

A study was conducted to examine the potential 

application of EPS tropical cyclone track information 

for probability forecast of heavy rain using QMORPH. 

Results showed that the EPS tracks could provide 

some hints on the uncertainty of the rainfall predictions 

but a gross over-confidence was apparent in the 

probability forecasts thus generated. 

A meteorologist of the Observatory served as a 

resource person for the Typhoon Committee Roving 

Seminar 2009 held in Nanjing, China from 16- 

19 November 2009 to share with the participants 

his expertise and experience in the analysis and 

forecasting of high-impact weather associated with 

tropical cyclones. 

A multiple regression model to correlate tropical 



cyclone wind structure parameters including 

strong/gale/storm/hurricane wind radii in different 

quadrants to the tropical cyclone intensity, latitudinal 

position, 6-hour speed of movement and the radius 

of maximum wind was developed based on the 

multi-platform satellite surface wind analysis data 

generated by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration (NOAA) for tropical cyclones over the 

western North Pacific and the South China Sea during 

2006-2008.Coupled with the tropical cyclone forecast 

track and intensity as well as surface characteristics 

information, the model could help generate wind 

forecasts at specific locations during the passage of 

the tropical cyclone.Its performance in forecasting 

surface wind at the Hong Kong International Airport 

was evaluated using tropical cyclone datasets for 

2008 and 2009. Verification results showed that the 

mean RMS error for 24-hour forecast was about 13 

km/h (7 knots).This tool would be put into operational 

trial in 2010. 


Attachments to the Hong Kong Observatory were 

arranged for meteorologists from Vietnam and 

Malaysia. (Key Result Area 2) 



Efforts would be expended by the Hong Kong 

Observatory to further improve the forecast of tropical 

cyclone intensity. 

2. Progress on Key Result Area 2:Minimized 







Early notification of issuance of tropical cyclone signal 

for increasing gale force winds was communicated 

to the major transport operators.Regular signal 

change assessment was also relayed to the container 

terminal to facilitate their operational planning.An 

enhanced level of preparedness in the transport and 

logistics infrastructure ensured an orderly response 

to the threats of tropical cyclones and facilitated more 

efficient traffic management to minimize the potential 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


societal and economic impact. 


Please refer to Key Result Area 1(b). 



The Drainage Service Department was provided 

with the probability of Amber Rainstorm Warning 

(widespread and persistent heavy rain with hourly 

rainfall at 30 mm or higher) in the next couple of 

hours to facilitate their flood control operations. 

Rainfall and wind information on a district by district 

basis were provided to the Home Affairs Department 

through specialized web pages to allow them to 

prepare for relief operations in their districts. 

As a continuing effort to promote awareness and 

preparedness of natural disasters, courses, lectures, 

briefings and visits to the Observatory were held 

for the general public, government departments, 

various stakeholders and private organizations such 

as transport operators, container terminal operators, 

insurance sectors to promote the effective use of the 

weather forecasting and warning services provided 

by the Observatory. 


Results 

e. A series of public talks on “Weather and Everyday 

Life” was held at various districts in Hong Kong 

between 25 May and 9 June 2009. The talks elaborated 

on weather phenomena affecting the daily life and the 

precautionary measures to be taken during tropical 

cyclones and severe weather. (Key Result Areas 4, 5) 

f. Regional Cooperation Achievements/Results 

Please refer to Key Result Area 1(e). 

g. Identified Opportunities/Challenges for Future 


Nil. 

3. Progress on Key Result Area 3:Enhanced 


Betterment of Quality of life.(List progress on the 





Nil. 


Nil. 



Nil. 


Results 

Nil. 


Nil. 



Nil. 


Typhoon-related Disaster Risk Management in 

Various Sectors.(List progress on the Strategic 

Goals and Associated Activities in the Strategic 

Plan and progress on the 2008 Typhoon Committee 



Nil. 


The Drainage Service Department liaised closely 

with other relevant Government departments and 

persons in charge of construction sites to avoid 

flooding due to blockage of roadside gullies, drains 

or watercourses by rubbish or construction waste. 

Television announcements were broadcast from time 

to time soliciting the support of the public to keep the 

drainage system from blockage. 

The Drainage Service Department provided a 24-hour 

hotline to facilitate reception of flooding complaints 

and to mobilize their labour force and contractors. 

Complaints received by the department were 

recorded by a computerized Drainage Complaints 

Information System so that data could be retrieved

and analyzed later.When the situation warranted, an 

Emergency Control Centre under the charge of senior 

professionals would be activated. 



Nil. 


Results 

An officer of the Hong Kong Observatory attended the 

Training Course on “Multi-hazard Early Warning” held 

in Nanjing, China, on 8 – 26 June 2009. (Key Result 

Area 7) 

Please also refer to Key Result Area 2 (d). 


The WMO Commission for Aeronautical Meteorology 

(CAeM) pilot project on "Aviation Weather Disaster 

Risk Reduction" (ADRR) in RA II, established in its 13th 

session in 2006 and with a focus on tropical cyclone 

hazards, was making steady progress. 

In 2009, the dedicated website (http://adrr.weather. 

gov.hk) developed by the Hong Kong Observatory 

for the pilot project was further enhanced to include 

tropical cyclone strike probability maps generated 

from NWP ensemble prediction system of the China 

Meteorological Administration (CMA), in addition 

to that of ECMWF.The geographical coverage of the 

tropical cyclone forecast on the website was also 

extended eastward from 125°E to 140°E to cover 

a larger part of the Pacific Ocean in response to 

feedback from aviation users. 



Figure 13Strike 

probability of 

tropical cyclone 

Lupit (from CMA) 

shown on the 

ADRR pilot project 

website. 

f. Identified Opportunities/ 

Challenges for Future Achievements/Results 

Nil. 

5. Progress on Key Result Area 5:Strengthened 


Disasters.(List progress on the Strategic Goals 





A sensitivity analysis was conducted by the Hong 

Kong Observatory on the magnitude of storm surge 

as a result of a change of tropical cyclone track. 


Staff of the Drainage Service Department attended 

various training classes, workshops and conferences 

(both local and overseas) to acquire the latest 

knowledge on advanced technology relating to flood 

prevention, including flooding caused by tropical 

cyclones.Overseas experts were also invited to 

Hong Kong to provide in-house training to staff of 

the department on advanced hydraulic modelling 

techniques for the drainage systems. 



A local alert system on storm surge flooding for a small 

village community on Lantau Island in Hong Kong, 

operated in collaboration with other key government 

departments and emergency response units, was 

implemented.The village was severely flooded during 

the passage of Typhoon Hagupit in 2008.Early alerts 

with lead time of a few hours were communicated to 

key operational personnel as well as to the community 

leaders using SMS.The early alert system proved very 

effective in its first season of operation and favourable 

feedback was received from users and residents. 

2009 

43

44 

ESCAP/WMO 


Fig. 14Hong Kong Observatory staff, in collaboration 

with other key government departments and 

emergency response units, gave a media briefing on 

the alert system on storm surge flooding. 

Fig. 15A large-scale drill on the alert system on storm 

surge flooding was conducted in collaboration with 

other key government departments and emergency 

response units. 

A pamphlet on Storm Surge was published in 2009 

providing information on the cause and effect on 

storm surge, monitoring and forecasting of storm 

surge and the precautions to take. 


Results 

Please refer to Key Result Area 2(d). 


Enhancements to the “Aviation Weather Disaster 

Risk Reduction” pilot website, to extend coverage of 

tropical cyclone forecasts to Indian Ocean as well 

as evaluation of tropical cyclone strike probability 

forecasts would be considered for implementation in 

the coming year. 



Nil. 




Typhoon-related Threats.(List progress on the 





To enhance public awareness on the potential threats 

of intense typhoons, as well as for the documentation 

and analysis of tropical cyclone long-term intensity 

trends in the face of climate change, typhoons were 

sub-divided into three intensity categories, namely: 

typhoon, severe typhoon and super typhoon.The new 

intensity classification, as shown in the table below, 

incorporating such changes was launched in the 

2009 tropical cyclone season. 

Classification of Tropical 

Cyclones 

M a x i m u m 

sustained wind 

speed near the 

centre 

(km/h) 

Tropical Depression 41 - 62 

Tropical Storm 63 – 87 

Severe Tropical Storm 88 – 117 

Typhoon 118 – 149 

Severe Typhoon* 150 – 184 

Super Typhoon* 185 or above 

* New categories starting 2009 

A recent analysis of tropical cyclone activity in western 

North Pacific and South China Sea reveals that the 

annual total number of tropical cyclones decreased 

from about 35 in the 1960s to about 27 after 2000. 

Closer to Hong Kong, the annual number of tropical 

cyclones making landfall along the south China coast 

within 300 km of the Observatory Headquarters in 

the past 40 years or so (1961–2008) had decreased 

from about 3 tropical cyclones in the 1960s to about 

2.5 between 1990 and 2008, but the rate of change 

is not statistically significant.The total number of 

typhoons, severe typhoons and super typhoons 

making landfall within 300 kilometers of Hong Kong 

remained unchanged at around one per year during 

the period 1961-2008. 


The Observatory provided support to the Drainage 

Service Department in their review of the Drainage 

Master Plans in Yuen Long & North Districts 

and feasibility study of applying integrated water 

resources management system in real-time flood 

forecasting.Results showed that direct output from 

SWIRLS (Short-range Warning of Intense Rainstorms

in Localized Systems) nowcasting system agreed 

reasonably well with the measurement at the nearest 

rain gauge but did not serve as a good predictor 

of flooding over a small catchment due to spatial 

variation and time fluctuation.Further studies would 

be conducted to establish a better correlation between 

actual rainfall over the catchment area and flooding. 

Rainfall nowcast data would be usedas an input later. 

The Observatory provided the Drainage Service 

Department with a forecast guidance on the likelihood 

of having rainstorms (widespread and persistent 

heavy rain with hourly rainfall at 30 mm or higher) in 

Hong Kong in the next couple of hours to facilitate their 

flood control operations.It was presented in iconic 

form, with intuitive graphical content flipping between 

two possible states: “(80%” or “

46 

ESCAP/WMO 


for monitoring and displaying the latest hourly 

temperature/relative humidity readings and weather 

warnings from the Observatory’s website was very 

popular.The Observatory proposed to adapt this 

gadget in providing weather warnings to the public 

worldwide through the SWIC platform based on the 

warning data from WMO Members.To begin with, a 

pilot project among Hong Kong, China; Macau, China; 

and Guam was under testing in 2009. 

7. Progress on Key Result Area 7:Enhanced 


International Collaboration.(List progress on the 







Nil. 



Nil. 


Results 

Two technical papers summarizing the project findings 

of the Typhoon Committee Research Fellowship 

Scheme in 2006 and 2007 respectively were finalized 

and submitted to the Typhoon Committee Annual 

Review for publication. 

Please also refer to Key Result Area 4 (d). 


The WMO RA II Pilot Project on the Provision of 

City-Specific Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) 

Products to Developing Countries was making steady 

progress.18 RA II Members, 4 of which were Typhoon 

Committee Members, participated in the project. 

Forecast time series for a total of 160 cities were 

being provided to 13 participating Members. 

Based on numerical experiments of several tropical 

cyclone cases in 2008, it was found that NHM 

showed promising results in simulating the structure 

of intense tropical cyclones like Typhoon Hagupit. A 

new scheme of surface flux exchange coefficients and 

roughness length over sea surface was developed. 

It was demonstrated that the scheme had positive 

impact on the forecast of wind distribution of tropical 

cyclones. 

A meteorologist from the China Meteorological 

Administration was attached to the Observatory 

under the TCRFS from 29 October to 28 December 

2009 to study the tropical cyclone bogus in NHM and 

its impact on forecast track and intensity. 



Nil. 

g. Resource Mobilization Activities 

Nil. 

8. Update of Members’ Working Groups 


1. Working Group on Meteorology– 

Mr. H.G. Wai – email: hgwai@hko.gov.hk 

Facsimile: 852 23119448 

Telephone: 852 29268232 

2. Working Group on Hydrology – 

Mr. H.Y. Mok – email: hymok@hko.gov.hk 

Facsimile:852 23119448 

Telephone: 852 29268451 


Preparedness – 

Ms. Hilda Lam- email: hildlam@hko.gov.hk 

Facsimile:852 23119448 

Telephone: 852 29268222 

4. Training and Research Coordinating Group – 

Mr. Edwin S.T. Lai - email: stlai@hko.gov.hk 

Facsimile:852 23119448 

Telephone: 852 29268371 

5. Resource Mobilization Group 

Nil.

JAPAN 


of Life from Typhoon-related Disasters. 





c-1. Major Disaster and Response Measures since 

January 2009 

In 2009, Japan suffered from a number of bouts of 

torrential rain. In particular, heavy rain from 

19 to 21 July 2009 caused 31 deaths, and resulted 

in 2,191 houses with inundation above floor level. 

Typhoon No.9 (ETAU) also caused 25 deaths, and 

resulted in 962 houses with inundation above floor 

level. The national government’s response included 

early warning reports from the Japan Meteorology 

Agency (JMA), inter-ministerial meetings for 

response coordination, and same-day dispatching of 

governmental on-site damage survey teams, headed 

by the Minister of State for Disaster Management. 

c-2. Technical Investigation on Large-Scale Flood 

Countermeasures 

There has been a large reduction in the total area 

inundated by flood disasters thanks to 

weather forecasting system improvement and the 

promotion of land conservation and flood control 

projects over many years. However, in terms of 

general assets, the amount of damage in flooded 

areas has greatly increased in recent years (Figure 3). 

Additionally, the frequency of downpours depositing 

more than 100 mm of rain per hour has seen an 

increasing trend throughout the country over the last 

30 years (Figures 4, 5). 

This increasing trend necessitates the strengthening 

of countermeasures for quick and smooth 

evacuation and relief activities in the event of largescale 

flooding. The Central Disaster Management 

Council is working on analysis of anticipated situations 

and reviewing measures against large-scale flood 

disasters that are expected to cause immense damage 

to the capital region. 

The Central Disaster Management Council, chaired by 

the Prime Minister and manned by 

other Ministers of State, focuses on the promotion 

of comprehensive disaster countermeasures. The 



Cabinet Office of the Japanese Government initiated an 

expert study for analysis of possible large-scale flood 

damage in Japan. The trigger for this investigation 

was Hurricane Katrina, which caused devastating 

damage in the U.S. in August 2005. Another reason 

was the fact that there have been no incidents of such 

devastating typhoons or floods in Japan for as long as 

50 years (since Typhoon Ise-wan in 1959), meaning 

that the majority of the population is unaware of the 

possibility of such a catastrophe. 

The study was started in 2006 and is still under way, 

but some interesting analysis has already 

been conducted. One such example is the simulation 

of a potential flood area in the Tone River basin (the 

largest river basin in Tokyo). A map of the flood area 

was simulated, assuming river dike bleach caused 

by hypothetical deadly rainfall with a once-in-200year 

likelihood. In the worst-case scenario, more than 

two million people could be affected by the flood, and 

nearly a million houses could be damaged. Although 

this is only a simulation, it is important that the potential 

magnitude of related damage is properly understood 

by the government and residents alike. (Figure 6) 

amount of damage 

(billion yen) 

(times/year) 

10 

5 

0 

1977 

400 

300 

200 

100 

0 

amount of damage amount of damage per flooded area 

1986〜’901991〜’951996〜’002001〜’05 

Figure 3 Amount of damage to general assets in flooded areas 

1977〜1986 

average:2.2times 

’80 

1987〜1996 

average:2.4times 

’85 

’90 ’95 

Figure 4 Tendency of downpours (over 100 mm/hr) 

60 

50 

40 

30 

20 

10 

0 

amount of damage per flooded area 

(million yen 

100 mm/hr 

1997〜2006 

average:5. 1times 

2000 

’05 

2009 

47

48 

ESCAP/WMO 


Flooded area (hectares) 53,000 

Affected population 2,300,000 

Flooding above floor level 690,000 houses 

Flooding below floor level 170,000 houses 

Figure 6 Flood area simulation for the Tone River in 

Tokyo 


Results 

d-1. Technical Emergency Control Force for 

Disaster Assistance 

Established in 2008, the Technical Emergency Control 

Force (TEC-FORCE) consists of teams 

of experts for different purposes formed by different 

agencies within the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, 

Transport and Tourism (MLIT), such as the River 

Bureau, the National Institute for Land and 

Infrastructure Management, the Japan Meteorological 

Agency, the Geographical Survey Institute and 

regional branch bureaus. When a large-scale disaster 

occurs or is likely to occur due to a typhoon or 

earthquake, TEC-FORCE teams are dispatched to 

provide technical assistance by swiftly assessing 

disaster situations and working to prevent and contain 

damage. They assist in early recovery and smooth, 

swift implementation of emergency measures 

required by municipalities in affected areas. 

Immediately after the occurrence of a large-scale 

disaster, damage to infrastructure supporting 

local lifelines such as roads often interrupts lifesaving 

activities and the stable daily lives of residents. 

However, municipalities originally responsible for such 

infrastructure are very likely to be overwhelmed in 

responding to residents’ emergency needs, meaning 

that they cannot fully perform the tasks needed to 

confirm infrastructure damage and start recovery 

efforts. Composed of national government employees 

with expertise in infrastructure management and 

experience in disaster response, TEC-FORCE is 

designed to provide professional support to assist 

municipalities across Japan in the event of such 

circumstances. 

In 2009, TEC-FORCE teams were dispatched to the 

Chugoku region and northern Kyushu due 

to heavy rainfall from July 19 to 26. Other teams were 

also sent to areas affected by Typhoon No.9 from 

August 8 to 11 and the earthquake of August 11 centered 

in Surugawan Bay. In these three disasters, a total of 

1,287 personnel, including TEC-FORCE members and 

other experts, participated in damage assessment by 

helicopter and on the ground. A TEC-FORCE team 

also provided assistance in quick recovery by giving 

advice on recovery work. Their efforts were greatly 

appreciated by the municipalities involved, and in 

some cases the dispatched teams received letters 

of appreciation. 

Figure 7 Damage assessment on 

the ground 

Figure 8 Damage assessment by helicopter

Figure 9 Technical assistance team 

(advising on recovery works) (KRA2, 4) 


e-1. Projects for the Debris Flow and Landslide 

Warning System and Hazard Mapping for 

Sediment-related Disasters 

Japan has taken the initiative in the Project for the 

Debris Flow and Landslide Warning System 

since 2002 up until this year through activities of the 

Typhoon Committee (TC). To start with, we proposed 

the Japanese method for setting the base rainfall 

used to trigger warnings and evacuations as a 

criterion to release sediment-related disaster warning 

information. Since then, individual TC member 

countries have selected model sites and worked to 

put the method into domestic operation by modifying 

it based on their own needs and conditions. The final 

project report published this fiscal year reported 

progress in several member countries including 

China, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines, Thailand, 

the United States and Japan. 

In light of increased technical understanding regarding 

the issuance of warning information 

among these countries, the next project, Hazard 

Mapping for Sediment-related Disasters, was 

launched in 2009 for the purpose of identifying areas 

at high risk of sediment-related disasters. 

Each participating country is currently selecting a 

model site for hazard mapping. 

In Japan, a heavy rainfall event caused large-scale, 

simultaneous sediment-related disasters in 

July 2009 in Yamaguchi Prefecture’s Hofu City, 

resulting in 14 deaths including 7 elderly people who 

were killed when debris flow directly hit their nursing 

home. Under Japan’s Sediment-Related Disaster 

Prevention Law, local municipalities are responsible 

for the development of warning and evacuation 

systems in areas deemed to have a certain level of 



disaster risk. The nursing home was located in such 

an area. In this fatal incident, human lives were lost 

because of problems with information communication 

despite sediment-related disaster warning information 

having been issued before the actual debris flow 

occurred. The incident demonstrated that forecasting 

and warnings alone will not always be adequate as 

countermeasures for sediment-related disasters, and 

reminded us that hazard mapping for such disasters 

can be an effective countermeasure to prevent 

damage by designating high-risk areas and promoting 

precautions. 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 







a-1. JMA’s Five-day Track Forecasts 

As of 22 April 2009, the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon 

Center of the Japan Meteorological 

Agency (JMA) started issuing five-day track forecasts 

every six hours in addition to the existing three-day 

track and intensity forecasts. The new reports include 

center positions and radii of probability circles* for 

the fourth and fifth forecast days, which contribute 

to improving early warning activities against tropical 

cyclones (TCs). These five-day track forecasts 

have been realized mainly as a result of recent 

improvements in numerical weather prediction, 

including the development of the Typhoon Ensemble 

Prediction System (TEPS). 

* Probability circle: a circular range in which a TC is 

expected to be located with a probability of 70% at 

each forecast time, indicating the uncertainty of the 

forecast 

Figure 12 Examples of a five-day track forecast, 

tropical cyclone Melor (0918) 

(KRA1, 4, 5, 6) 


b-1. Enhancement of Countermeasures for Largescale 

Sediment-related Disasters Involving 

Landslide Dams 

Based on the understanding that it is the national 

government’s essential responsibility to protect the 

lives and property of the country’s citizens from 

earthquakes, floods and other disasters, the Ministry 

of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) 

organizes and dispatches Technical Emergency 

Control Force (TEC-FORCE) teams to affected areas 

to quickly assess damage status as part of efforts 

to better respond to natural disasters, which have 

been increasingly frequent in recent years. As local 

governments have little experience in coping with 

major natural disasters, they lack the technical 

expertise needed to respond to them. 

In March 2009, MLIT amended a Ministerial 

Ordinance to allow the national government to initiate 

countermeasures for sediment-related emergencies 

in the event of a large-scale natural disaster, 

regardless of the responsibilities and jurisdiction of 

the local governments that usually lead such efforts. 

The revised ordinance was soon applied to the July 

2009 disaster in Yamaguchi Prefecture’s Hofu City 

for the first time, and countermeasures for sedimentrelated 

disasters were directly conducted by a local 

MLIT branch office. In the face of a large-scale natural 

disaster, it is essential for the national government 

to step in and take direct countermeasures based on 

experience and knowledge gained by coping with a 

variety of natural disasters in the past. 

Heavy rainfall events and earthquakes have resulted 

in the formation of as many as 82 landslide dams 

throughout Japan in the past 200 years. A landslide 

dam is created when a landslide blocks a river 

channel, and can result in large-scale disaster once 

the river breaches it and causes debris flow. In 2008 

when an inland earthquake affected parts of Iwate 

and Miyagi Prefectures, 15 landslide dams formed 

in a limited area within a 20-km radius. The affected 

area is basically under the jurisdiction of the local 

government, but since it required a high level of 

technical expertise to implement measures against 

landslide dams breach, we directly implemented 

countermeasure work such as pump drainage and 

construction of an interim diversion to lower water 

levels, thereby coping with 9 urgent major landslide 

dams among the 15 in response to requests from 

local governors. 

Based on the case of Iwate and Miyagi, MLIT set up a 

research committee on risk management 

for large-scale landslide dams. The committee has 

made recommendations for such management and 

contributed to further progress in the field.

Figure 13 Removal process of a landslide dam 



A landslide dam is formed 

by a landslide 

Pumps are used to drain 

water while a drainage 

channel is constructed 

The trapped water drains 

through the drainage channel 

(KRA1, 4, 5) 




Results 


e-1. Publication of “Practical Guideline on 

Strategic Climate Change Adaptation Planning – 

Water-related Disasters –” 

Severer floods due to climate change occur on a global 

scale and are common issues facing the international 

community, although the degree of impact varies by 

region. Located in the Asian Monsoon region, some 

Asia-Pacific countries have climatic and geological 

conditions similar to those of Japan, and their areas 

of production and inhabitation are based mostly on 

alluvial plains. 

The guideline prepared by experts in the Ministry of 

Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) 

describes a framework for procedures to develop 

adaptation measures against severer flood disasters 

due to climate change based on experiences, 

strategies and technologies accumulated in Japan. 

The publication mainly targets countries facing 

conditions such as: 1) expected socio-economic 

development and urbanization due to population 

growth; 2) a basis of living and production situated 

on alluvial plains; and 3) underdeveloped flood control 

measures (e.g., countries in the Asia-Pacific region 

and others). Compared with existing guidelines on 

flood management, the importance of estimating 

future meteorological external forces such as 

precipitation is higher in the development of climate 

change adaptation measures. Accordingly, the 

publication contains a full account outlining the setting 

of meteorological external forces. 

In order to make an international contribution by 

implementing technical support to concrete climate 

change adaptation planning in the Asia-Pacific region, 

MLIT established “Advisory board on promotion of 

international contribution regarding climate change 

adaptation measures”, which consists of academic 

experts (chaired by Prof. Toshio KOIKE of Tokyo 

University) in June 2009.Based on suggestions from the 

advisory board, the guideline will be further improved. 

MLIT hopes to contribute to the promotion of effective 

adaptation measures in the Asia-Pacific region 

by utilizing the guideline through various activities 

such as Climate Change and Adaptation Knowledge 

Hubs in Asia Pacific Water Forum (APWF), bilateral 

cooperation 

by JICA, and 

so on. 

(http://www. 

mlit.go.jp/ 

river/basic_ 

info/english/ 

climate.html) 

(KRA1,5 ,7) 

2009 

51

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ESCAP/WMO 






Betterment of Quality of life. 






Results 




4. Progress on Key Result Area 4: Improved 


Various Sectors. 


a-1. JMA’s Climate Change Monitoring Report 

JMA describes inter-annual variability and long-term 

trends regarding typhoon activity in its “Climate Change 

Monitoring Report” every year. This is distributed to 

the Japanese public as well as to NHMSs via the 

Tokyo Climate Center’s website (http://ds.data.jma. 

go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/gwp/gwp.html). 

Figure 16 The number of tropical cyclones (TS or 

higher) forming in the western North Pacific (top), 

those that approached Japan (middle) and those 

that hit Japan (bottom). The thin, solid and dashed 

lines represent annual/five-year running means and 

normal values (1971–2000 averages), respectively. 

(KRA1, 2, 5, 6,) 




c-1. Visiting Researchers from ADRC Member 

Countries 

The ADRC receives visiting researchers from member 

countries; 44 officials from participatingnations have 

so far taken part in this program. 

A list of visiting researchers is provided below.



Name Country Term at the ADRC 

1 Shim Kee-Oh Republic of Korea 1999/07/23 −1999/10/11 

2 Ngo Van Sinh Vietnam 1999/12/10 −2000/03/17 

3 Lek Nath Pokharel Nepal 2000/01/12 −2000/05/07 

4 Nimal D. Hettiarachchi Sri Lanka 2000/04/13 −2000/10/12 

5 M. Babul Aknter Bangladesh 2000/05/12 −2000/11/16 

6 W. A. Chulananda Perera Sri Lanka 2000/11/13 −2001/04/05 

7 Hiripsime Vardanyan Armenia 2001/03/09 −2001/06/04 

8 Philomena Miria Papua New Guinea 2001/06/04 −2001/12/03 

9 So Ban Heang Cambodia 2001/06/04 −2001/12/04 

10 Md. Atikuzzaman Bangladesh 2002/01/09 −2002/06/30 

11 Tigran Sayiyan Armenia 2002/02/23 −2002/08/22 

12 Khun Sokha Cambodia 2002/07/29 −2002/12/25 

13 V. P. Pasrija India 2002/10/05 −2002/12/25 

14 Dilli Pd. Shiwakoti Nepal 2003/01/08 −2003/07/02 

15 Bolormaa Borkhuu Mongolia 2003/01/08 −2003/07/05 

16 Vilayphong Sisomvang Lao PDR 2003/07/08 −2003/12/25 

17 Rachman Sobarna Indonesia 2003/07/09 −2003/09/30 

18 Om Prakash India 2003/10/08 −2003/12/24 

19 Rahmonov Suhrobsho Tajikistan 2004/01/14 −2004/06/10 

20 Nguyen Thanh Phuong Vietnam 2004/01/27 −2004/06/29 

21 Yuan Yi China 2004/07/19 −2004/10/15 

22 Bouasy Thammasack Lao PDR 2004/07/21 −2004/12/24 

23 Shyam Sunder India 2005/10/02 −2005/12/25 

24 Ross Sovann Cambodia 2005/01/23 −2006/06/30 

25 Bal Bahadur Malla Nepal 2005/01/30 −2006/06/29 

26 Maria Matilde Limpahan Go Philippines 2005/07/13 −2005/12/27 

27 Diloro Mirzovatanovna Mirova Tajikistan 2005/07/15 −2005/12/21 

28 Lyudmila Harutyunyan Armenia 2006/01/11 −2006/04/10 

29 G.M.J.K. Gunawardana Sri Lanka 2006/03/01 −2006/06/30 

30 San-Hyeok Kang Republic of Korea 2006/07/01 −2006/12/15 

31 Altanchimeg Shaazan Mongolia 2007/01/09 −2007/06/30 

32 Arun Pinta Thailand 2007/01/14 −2007/06/30 

33 Nwet Yin Aye Myanmar 2007/07/06 −2007/12/31 

34 Karybai uulu Kanat Kyrgyz Republic 2007/07/04 −2007/12/31 

35 Zhang Yunxia China 2008/01/01 −2008/05/28 

36 Zafar Waqar Taj Pakistan 2008/02/23 −2008/06/24 

37 Vu Thanh Liem Viet Nam 2008/07/11 −2008/12/17 

38 Shambhu Prasad Marasini Nepal 2008/07/11 −2008/12/19 

39 Muhammad Khalil Bin Aziz Malaysia 2009/1/15 −2009/06/24 

40 Areerat Wijitpatchraphon Thailand 2009/1/15 −2009/06/24 

41 Predeep Kodippili Sri Lanka 2009/8/6 −2009/10/17 

42 Porcil Josefina Tan Philippines 2009/8/5 − 

43 Mishra Sagar Nepal 2009/8/6 − 

44 Shahid Hussain Malik Pakistan 2009/8/7 − 

2009 

53

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ESCAP/WMO 



Results 

d-1. Disaster Management Policy Program: Waterrelated 

Risk Management Course 

To cope with the growing threat of water-related 

disasters, there is an urgent need to build an active 

network of experts and professionals to deal with the 

issues involved, particularly in developing countries 

that have proven to be more vulnerable to natural 

disasters. Such experts are expected to acquire 

a broad understanding of all aspects of disaster 

management. In response to this need, ICHARM offers 

a master’s degree program called the Water-related 

Risk Management Course in Disaster Management 

Policy Program, which started in October 2007. This 

is a one-year program jointly organized by ICHARM 

and the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies 

(GRIPS) with the support of the Japan International 

Cooperation Agency (JICA). As of the beginning of 

2010, 13 master’s course students were enrolled 

in the course, 4 of whom were from the TC region 

(Japan, China, Thailand and Philippines). 

Figure 17 Management course students for the year 2009-2010 

(KRA1, 2, 5, 7) 

d-2. Implementation of JICA’s Comprehensive 

Management of Rivers and Dams Group Training 

Program 

The River Bureau of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, 

Transport and Tourism(MLIT), the National Institute 

for Land and Infrastructure Management, PWRI and 

JICA have served as implementing agencies for 

the JICA Comprehensive Management of Rivers and 

Dams group training program that began in 1973. 

These organizations have provided engineers working 

on flood control administration and water resources 

development plans worldwide to give lectures on 

the Japanese Government’s flood management 

measures. They have also conducted exercises related 

to hydrological statistics and runoff analysis, lectures 

and exercises on dam design and construction, and 

on-the-spot visits to relevant facilities. As of 2009, 

engineers had been invited from China, Indonesia, 

Iraq, the Philippines, Myanmar, Syria and Pakistan 

during the period from September to December for 

the training. 

Figure 18 Trainees of the program 

(KRA1, 2, 5, 7) 


e-1. Project for the Development of Flood Disaster 

Preparedness Indices 

Strengthening disaster preparedness and identifying, 

assessing and monitoring disaster risk are issues 

highlighted in the Five Priorities for Action under 

the Hyogo Framework for Action adopted in Jan. 

2005. In many countries, however, assistance from 

the central government is often insufficient and 

slow when disasters occur. In such cases, raising 

the disaster preparedness level of communities/ 

local governments is an essential part of disaster 

management. However, there are no widely 

recognized indicators that can be used for periodical 

self-assessment in localities. To fill this gap, this 

project was proposed and adopted for implementation 

with the objective of improving disaster preparedness 

in local governments and communities. In order 

to create a well-organized set of indicators, it was 

agreed that these would be developed according to 

the disaster management cycle enriched based on 

feedback from TC members. To this end, ICHARM 

developed a crude set of indicators for model trial/ 

evaluation and launched a new website exclusively 

for this purpose (www.fdpi.info) in Jan. 2010. TC 

members are currently encouraged to select several 

model communities and model-test the proposed set 

of indicators using a questionnaire-based approach.

Reporting on intermediate results is expected at the 

42ndTC annual session. 

Figure 19 Disaster management cycle 

(KRA1, 2, 5, 6, 7) 



5. Progress on Key Result Area 5: Strengthened 


Disasters. 


a-1. JMA Mobile Observation Team 

In October 2008, JMA named its disaster survey team 

the Mobile Observation Team (JMA-MOT). Survey 

teams from JMA carry out field surveys to ascertain 

actual conditions and provide scientific explanations of 

events after natural disasters such as severe storms, 

earthquakes, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and storm 

surges. JMA gave a unified name to the survey team to 

familiarize the public with its activities and contribute 

to the reinforcement of community resilience and 

risk management authorities after disasters. Once 

a disaster occurs, the relevant local meteorological 

observatory organizes and dispatches the Mobile 

Observation Team based on agreement with the local 

government. Another mission of this Team involves 

public relations; the local meteorological observatory 

issues an official announcement on the dispatch 

of JMA-MOT just after the decision to send them 

out, and releases the field survey report as soon as 

possible, which is expected to reduce anxiety among 

the public. 

(KRA4, 6) 





Results 

d-1. Training Course on Local Disaster 

Management Planning with Flood Hazard Maps 



ICHARM ran the Flood Hazard Map Training Course 

from 2004 to 2008, representing a significant 

contribution to promoting the TC project of the same 

name. To build on past achievements and further 

promote the establishment of solid local disaster 

management plans in developing countries, this new 

training course was launched and conducted for a 

period of three weeks in Nov. 2009 in collaboration 

with JICA. The Overall Goal is to reduce flood 

damage in participants’ countries by making local 

disaster management plans that combine flood 

hazard maps and flood forecasting/warning systems 

and by strengthening local resilience against floods. 

The program’s objective is to help trainees develop 

the direction and scheduling of local disaster 

management plans combined with flood hazard maps 

and flood forecasting/warning systems. The first 

year of training on this three-year systematic course 

was successfully implemented for eight trainees, 

two of whom were from the TC region (Lao PDR and 

Thailand). 

Figure 20 Training course opening ceremony 

attendees 

(KRA1, 2, 6, 7) 


e-1. Flood Hazard Mapping Project 

In the Flood Hazard Mapping Project, Typhoon 

Committee member countries are called on to make 

efforts to reduce damage, particularly that related 

to humans, caused by flood disasters resulting 

from typhoons. To this end, it is essential that flood 

forecasts and warnings and evacuation advisories 

and directives be made as functional and effective as 

possible. Accordingly, improving the accuracy and 

dissemination of flood forecasts and warnings is 

of extreme importance, as is the creation of flood 

hazard maps providing knowledge of flood risks and 

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clarifying the point at which evacuation is required. 

The synergetic effects of these efforts are expected 

to lead to voluntary and rapid evacuation when 

necessary. 

The year 2009 marks the final part of a three-year 

extension of these efforts. The WS, which was held in 

Cebu in the Philippines as a pre-meeting on September 

13 and as a WHG workshop from September 14 to 18, 

confirmed the related activities undertaken over the 

past eight years and also discussed the draft final 

report for the whole project. First, Japan, which has 

provided leadership in the FHM project, outlined the 

activities of member countries and highlighted the 

key achievements of the project. In response, China, 

the Philippines, Vietnam and other members made 

comments to reflect latest efforts of each country. 

After the workshop, each country confirmed the 

content of the final report, and participating members 

presented knowledge and obtained know-how from 

each other. The achievements of the FHM project 

include actual recommendations for water-related 

disaster prevention. 

The lessons learned from the project were 

summarized as follows in the final report: 

I. Effectiveness of FHM 

1) FHM is an essential countermeasure to reduce 

flood damage at national/local/individual level. 

2) FHM can be effective within shorter-period of time, 

while structural measures such as embankment or 

dams need a longtime to be constructed. 

3) The most suitable FHM for a certain area can be 

built-up, combining topographic 

map, past flood investigation, inundation analysis and 

required data. 

II. Role of the central government 

1) To reduce human/economic losses, FHM should 

acquire a primary position in national disaster 

prevention policy. 

2) Through the FHM project, a right perception on 

supposed disaster and facilities’ capacity shall be 

recognized in local society. 

3) For popularization of FHM, the central government 

is expected to set up a legal 

regulation, immediate target and technical domestic 

support system. 

III. Action in local community 

1) Local government/NGO shall connect flood fighting 

services and residents by FHM, and brush it up by 

referring to many activities in other regions. 

2) Residential collaborative action of information/ 

experience sharing is a key factor of FHM to ensure 

the local livelihood sustainability. 

3) FHM work may become a culture to live in floodprone 

area through identification of 

area-specific dangers, resources and warning 

messages. 

(KRA1, 2, 6, 7) 




Capacity to Generate and Provide Accurate, Timely 

and understandable Information on Typhoonrelated 

Threats. 


a-1. Improvement of Observation Systems 

Radar observation 

Five Conventional Radars Replaced with Doppler 

Radars by JMA JMA operates 20 weather radars 

that are designed to collectively cover the whole 

areas around Japan to observe the development of 

precipitation systems three dimensionally, and in 2006 

JMA began replacements of conventional radars with 

new Doppler radars. By April 2010, 5 conventional 

radars, those at Sapporo, Fukui, Osaka, Hiroshima 

and Ishigakijima, will be newly replaced with Doppler 

radars in addition to the existing 11 Doppler radars 

that are already operating. After April 2010, the 

network of those 16 Doppler radars will contribute to 

disaster prevention through the provision of detailed 

meteorological information about strong wind and 

through the incorporation of the data into Numerical 

Weather Prediction to give more accurate products. 

Interval of Weather Radar Observation Shortened 

In response to the extensive damage caused by a 

series of local heavy rains in many parts of Japan 

during the summer of 2008, JMA shortened the 

observing interval of weather radars from 10 to 5 

minutes in July 2009 with the aim of early detection 

of developing precipitation cells which may bring local 

heavy rainfall. This shortening was made possible after 

we reorganized the scan sequence of each of the 20 

countrywide weather radars, and as a result we can 

produce the nationwide radar-echo composite maps 

every 5 minutes. Those maps are used in real-time by

JMA for issuing weather warnings and also provided 

to the general public through the JMA website. 

Upper-air observation 

Change in the Wind-finding Method of Radiosondes 

in Japan 

Upper-air observation by radiosondes in Japan is 

now carried out through two different wind-finding 

methods – one involving radio theodolites and the 

other involving GPS (Global Positioning System) 

using satellites. JMA is planning to introduce the 

GPS wind-finding method to all 16 of its observation 

sites by March 2010 to improve data acquisition and 

accuracy. The Agency will also install an integrated 

system that gathers all data at its headquarters in 

order implement quality control more effectively for 

advanced use of the data. 

Satellite observation 

Switchover of Meteorological Mission from MTSAT-1R 

to MTSAT-2 

Since 1977, JMA has been operating a series of 

geostationary meteorological satellites 

Himawari (meaning “sunflower” in Japanese). The 

imagery data they produce are used for observing 

and forecasting weather and contributing to disaster 

prevention, and are particularly crucial in typhoon 

analysis. 

At present, JMA operates an imaging function on 

Multi-functional Transport Satellite-1R (MTSAT- 

1R, also known as Himawari-6), which has been in 

geostationary orbit at 140 degrees east since 28 

June 2005. The satellite observes the Northern 

Hemisphere every 30 minutes and the Southern 

Hemisphere on an hourly basis. 

After the imager on board MTSAT-1R reaches the end 

of its operational life, JMA plans to switch its imaging 

function to MTSAT-2 (also known as Himawari-7), 

which is placed in geostationary orbit at 145 degrees 

east and is now on stand-by, on 1 July 2010. The 

geostationary orbiting positions of MTSAT-1R and -2 

will not change, and cloud imagery will be acquired 

from 145 degrees east after the switchover. 

MTSAT-2’s imager carries one visible and four 

infrared channels in the same way as 

MTSAT-1R. The spectral characteristics of both 

satellites’ imagers are almost identical, and their 

spatial and quantization resolutions are the same. As 

the observation timetable of MTSAT-2 will be also the 

same as that of MTSAT-1R, it will continuously provide 

similar information on typhoon observation. 

Regarding the HRIT/LRIT image dissemination 



service for MDUS/SDUS provided by the satellite, 

MTSAT-1R will deliver MTSAT-2’s images after the 

switchover, meaning that MDUS and SDUS users will 

not need to reposition receiving antennas. After the 

switchover, full-disk visible images will be additionally 

disseminated on LRIT. 

(KRA1, 2, 4, 5) 

a-2. Improvement of the Global Telecommunication 

System 

Three regional and interregional circuits connected 

with RTH Tokyo migrated from Frame 

Relay services to an MPLS-based IP-VPN in March 

2009 in order to avoid interruption of GTS operation 

due to the discontinuation of the Frame Relay service. 

The migration plan was coordinated by RTH Tokyo in 

cooperation with RTH Bangkok and NMCs Hong Kong 

and Manila. In addition, two Main Telecommunication 

Network (MTN) circuits connecting RTH Tokyo with 

WMCs Washington and Melbourne also migrated to the 

RA-VI Regional Meteorological Data Communication 

Network (RMDCN), which is operated over an MPLS 

based IP-VPN, in September and November 2009, 

respectively. 

(KRA1, 2, 4, 5, 7) 

a-3. Upgrade of the Operational Mesoscale 4D-Var 

System 

On 7 April 2009, the operational mesoscale analysis 

system was upgraded. The previous version was a 

four-dimensional variational data assimilation system 

(Meso 4D-Var) based on a hydrostatic spectral model 

that used to act as a forecast tool for the Meso Scale 

Model (MSM). The forecast model was upgraded from 

this hydrostatic spectral model to a nonhydrostatic 

grid model (NHM) in September 2004, since which 

time there had been a need to develop a new 4D-Var 

based on JMA-NHM. This new 4D-Var, named 

JNoVA, was introduced to replace the Meso 4D-Var 

system. This upgrade also includes enhancement of 

the analysis resolution from 10 km to 5 km horizontally 

and from 40 to 50 layers vertically. Twin month-long 

experiments both in summer and in winter showed 

that quantitative precipitation forecasts (QPFs) were 

improved significantly by initializing the NHM with 

JNoVA rather than with Meso 4D-Var (Fig. 21). In 

the case of Typhoon Wukong in 2006, the improved 

typhoon track forecast led to better forecasting of 

precipitation patterns (Fig. 22). The upgrade of the 

analysis system is expected to contribute significantly 

to enhancing the accuracy of meteorological 

advisories/warnings and aviation forecasts. 

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Figure 21 Equitable threat scores of three-hourly 

accumulated precipitation forecasts in summer 

(right) and winter (left). The red and green lines 

show the results of JNoVA (Test) and Meso 4D-Var 

(CTRL), respectively. The horizontal axis represents 

the threshold values of the rainfall amount. 

Figure 22 Three-hourly accumulated precipitation of 

24-hour forecasts from the 15 UTC initial time on 

17 Aug. 2006. From the left, analyzed precipitation, 

the forecast of JNoVA and that of Meso 4D-Var are 

shown. 

(KRA1, 2, 4, 5, 7) 

a-4. Improvements to JMA’s Typhoon Ensemble 

Prediction System (TEPS) 

In June 2009, the Japan Meteorological Agency 

(JMA) upgraded the forecast model used for 

its Typhoon Ensemble Prediction System (TEPS). 

This model is a low-resolution version (TL319L60,

approximately 60 km horizontally and 60 layers up 

to 0.1 hPa) of JMA’s Global Spectral Model (GSM). 

In this upgrade, a new dynamical core and a number 

of calculation modifications were introduced into 

the low-resolution GSM. The core uses a reduced 

Gaussian grid and is being used in JMA operational 

high resolution GSM. The impact of the upgrade was 

investigated through forecast experiments from 20 

August to 9 October 2008. The ensemble mean track 

forecast error of tropical cyclones (TCs) in RSMC 

Tokyo’s area of responsibility was reduced as a result 

of the enhancement (Figure 23). 

The TEPS upgrade is expected to contribute to 

improving the accuracy of TC forecasts. 

Figure 23 Ensemble mean track forecast error (km) 

of TCs in RSMC Tokyo’s are of responsibility from 

20 August to 9 October 2008. The blue and red 

lines show the error of TEPS with the old dynamical 

core (a standard Gaussian grid) and that with the 

new dynamical core (a reduced Gaussian grid), 

respectively. 

The black dots denote the number of verification 

samples. 

(KRA1, 2, 4, 5, 7) 

a-5. Weekly report on extreme climate events 

JMA issues the weekly reports on extreme climate 

events around the world, including extremely heavy 

precipitation and/or weather-related disasters caused 

by tropical cyclones. These reports are distributed to 

NMHSs via the TCC website in near-real time (http:// 

ds.data.jma.go.jp/gmd/tcc/tcc/products/climate/). 



Figure 24 Distribution of global extreme climate 

events (7 Oct 2009 - 13 Oct 2009); The figure 

indicates areas where extreme climate events were 

identified from SYNOP messages, and also shows 

the tracks of tropical cyclones based on preliminary 

data from Tropical Cyclone Centers worldwide. 

(KRA1, 2, 4, 5, 7) 


b-1. Approach of the International Flood Network 

(IFNet) and the Global Flood Alert System 

(GFAS) 

(1) IFNet and GFAS 

IFNet operates the Global Flood Alert System 

(GFAS) - a project offering the information needed 

to rank the risk of flood occurrence utilizing satellite 

observation of rainfall amounts. GFAS began 

automatic distribution of information in June 2006, 

and uses IFNet to suply rainfall information and flood 

occurrence probability (flood possibility) statistics 

based on global rainfall data observed every three 

hours by multiple earth observation satellites. This is 

considered to provide valuable information for flood 

forecasting and warnings in areas along large rivers, 

where it takes several days for data on rainfall in 

upstream areas to reach downstream regions where 

telemeter systems have not been developed, or in 

international rivers where it is difficult to transmit 

information on upstream areas to downstream 

regions. GFAS offers two types of services - one 

providing basic information and the other providing 

customized information. 

(2) The 5th IFNet General Meeting 

The 5th IFNet General Meeting was held on Thursday, 

19 March in Istanbul, Turkey, in 

conjunction with the 5th World Water Forum. 

Following a complimentary address by Mr. Hiroaki 

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Taniguchi, Vice Minister for Engineering Affairs 

at the Japanese Government’s Ministry of Land, 

Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT), the 

meeting itself was chaired by Mr. Avinash C. Tyagi, 

Director of WMO’s Climate and Water Department. 

The event was closed by Vice Chairperson Mr. 

Toshiyuki Adachi, Director of the River Planning 

Division at MLIT. 

At this meeting, IFNet members discussed the 

following three matters: 

1) A report of activities following the Asia-Pacific 

Water Summit in December 2007 in Beppu, Japan 

2) Introduction of the Global Flood Alert System 

utilizing satellite-based rainfall data to mitigate flood 

damage 

3) The activities of the Typhoon Committee Working 

Group on Hydrology 

Figure 25 Discussion at the meeting 

(3) GFAS Validation Workshop 

IFNet and the International Centre for Water Hazard 

and Risk Managemen (ICHARM) ran the International 

Workshop on Application and Validation of GFAS from 

August 3 to 7, 2009. 

Six participants in charge of water-related disaster 

prevention in their countries (Bangladesh, India, 

Indonesia, Lao PDR, Nepal and Vietnam) gathered at 

ICHARM in Tsukuba, Japan. 

Information necessary for GFAS was provided in a 

series of intensive lectures: 

- Flood Forecasts and Hydrological Observation in 

Japan, by Mr. Fukami, ICHARM 

- Applicability of Satellite Rainfall Data, by Dr. Oki and 

Dr. Kachi, JAXA 

- Introduction of GFAS and IFNet, by Mr. Matsuki: IDI 

- Result of Comparison between Satellite and Groundbased 

Rainfall Data, by Mr. Ito, IDI 

- Presentations on water-related disaster prevention, 

by all participants 

- Introduction of IFAS, by Mr. Sugiura, ICHARM 

- Introduction of Modification Method of Satellitebased 

Rainfall, by Mr. Ozawa, ICHARM 

- Introduction of GIS data, by Dr. Magome, ICHARM 

- Example of IFAS Operation in Japan and its Validation 

Result, by Mr. Sugiura, ICHARM 

- IFAS Training using Example Data, by Mr. Sugiura, 

ICHARM 

- Introduction of IFAS (BTOP model), by Dr. Magome, 

ICHARM 

A field trip in the Tokyo area was also conducted. 

The workshop resulted in enhanced GFAS/IFAS 

operation know-how among all participants, who 

confirmed their commitment to helping with GFAS/ 

IFAS upgrade work in the future. 

Figure 26 Workshop participants 

(KRA1, 2, 4, 5)

-2. Promotion of Countermeasures for Localized 

Heavy Rainfall and Extremely Intensified Rainfall 

-Introduction of X-band MP Radars- 

In recent years, serious disasters caused by localized 

heavy rainfall and extremely intensified rainfall have 

become increasingly frequent throughout Japan. 

To strengthen real-time monitoring of these types of 

rainfall, the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport 

and Tourism has started a project to implement 

more detailed, frequent monitoring by introducing 

X-band MP (multi-parameter) radars. This new 

type is capable of observing rainfall with higher 

frequency, finer resolution and improved accuracy, 

and can also observe 3D distribution of rainfall and 

wind. The radars are expected to improve accuracy 

in observation and forecasting of localized heavy 

rainfall, which is often found difficult to observe with 

traditional C-band radars. 

Figure 27 Rainfall observation by X-band radars 



X-band MP radars enable observation of wind and even 

the shape of raindrops. This sophisticated capability 

leads to technological research and development 

for observation and forecasting of thundercloud 

development and rainfall-area movement as well as 

for improved flood forecasting and simulation. With 

these technological improvements, more accurate 

and timely information can beprovided to the 

relevant municipalities and local residents, which 

will contribute to the reduction of damage caused 

by localized heavy rainfall or extremely intensified 

rainfall. 

Under the current plan, a total of 11 X-band radar 

stations will be implemented in three metropolitan 

areas and other regions (Kanto, Chubu, Kinki and 

Hokuriku) by the end of fiscal 2009, and in the 

regions of Chugoku and Kyushu in the near future. 

Test operation is scheduled to start in fiscal 2010 

before full operation in 2013. 

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Radar type 

C-band radar 

(conventional type) 

X-band MP radar 

(new type) 

Frequency band, wavelength 4 – 8 GHz, 5 cm 8 – 12 GHz, 3 cm 

- Real-time rainfall monitoring for 

Real-time rainfall monitoring for river management (over a limited 

Observational purpose river management (over a wide area for detailed data) - Observa- 

area) 

tion of rainfall area development 

and movement 

Observational period 5 minutes 1 minute (target duration) 

Time-lag 

to information release 

5 – 10 minutes 1 – 2 minutes (target time-lag) 

Resolution of data 1 km 250 – 500 m 

Doppler observation 

(wind observation) 

Partially conducted Fully conducted 

Scanning method 

Dual polarization (observation 

2D scanning 

3D scanning (observation of 

raindrop formation process) 

of raindrop shape) Partially conducted Fully conducted 

b-3. Establishment of “Forecasting Centers for 

Water-related Disasters” 

In recent years, water-related disasters have 

become more frequent, including storm surge and 

flooding events caused by record heavy rainfall and 

localized intensive deluges. This situation requires 

river administrators and municipal offices to provide 

faster and more precise disaster response. Efforts 

should also be made to achieve the goal of ensuring 

Table 2 Specifics of C-band and X-band radars 

Figure 28 Forecasting Centers for Water-related Disasters 

(KRA1, 2, 4) 

zero disaster victims by analyzing, assessing and 

appropriately incorporating the impacts of external 

forces intensified by climate change due to global 

warming into structural and non-structural measures. 

Accordingly, “Forecasting Centers for Water-related 

Disasters” were established in April 2009, and have 

since been in operation at the eight MLIT Regional 

Development Bureaus across Japan. 

The Centers provide the following services: 

(KRA1, 2, 4)

1. Monitoring and forecasting of water-related 

disasters and improvement of these functions 

2. Collection and dissemination of information on 

monitoring, forecasting, forecasts and warnings, and 

water levels 

3. Analysis and assessment of the impacts of climate 

change on water-related disasters 

4. Assistance for prefectural river administrators and 

flood-fighting administrators 




Results 

d-1. Training Seminar on Climate Information and 

Forecasting 

A Training Seminar on Climate Information and 

Forecasting was held at JMA Headquarters in 

Tokyo from 4 to 6 November 2008. The event was 

attended by 13 participants from 12 countries and 

regions engaged in operational long-range forecasting 

at NMHSs in East and Southeast Asia, including 

8 members of the Typhoon Committee. Through 

lectures and exercises using PCs, the participants 

learned how to use the data and products available 

on the TCC website for long-range forecasting. 

Presentation files used in the seminar are also 

available on the site, which can be found at http:// 

ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/library/library2008.html. 

Figure 29 Training seminar participants 

(KRA1, 2, 4, 5) 

d-2. Reanalysis Project for Typhoon Vera (1959): 

ReVera 

1. Introduction 

Fifty years ago, Typhoon Vera (1959) made landfall on 

Japan’s Kii Peninsula at around 1800 JST(0900 UTC) 

on 26 September 1959. It brought tremendous damage 

to the country’s islands – especially around the Ise 

Bay area – and was the most tragic meteorological 



disaster in post-war Japan with a casualty toll 

exceeding 5,000. The massive damage it caused 

to society means that Vera is well remembered in 

Japan, and people recall it as the Isewan (Ise Bay) 

Typhoon. At the time, the one-day track forecast for 

Vera was accurate, but the forecast for its speed of 

movement suggested that it would be much slower 

than it actually was. In addition, the forecast of storm 

surge around Ise Bay was 100 to 150 cm at most – 

much lower than the actually recorded value of 389 

cm. 

Recent advances in objective numerical reanalysis 

systems have enabled us to obtain long-term 

reanalysis data. JMA has started the JRA-55 project 

(a long-term reanalysis initiative targeting the period 

from 1958 to 2012), which is the successor of the 

JRA-25 project for the period from 1979 to 2004. 

Using the reanalysis dataset and sophisticated 

numerical models, we can simulate past remarkable 

meteorological phenomena such as typhoons. 

Accordingly, we performed numerical prediction 

experiments for Vera to validate its predictability 

using the latest forecast techniques together with the 

primary outcome from JRA-55 as initial conditions for 

track, intensity and storm surge predictions. 

2. Track forecast experiment 

We performed track predictions using the global model 

Figure 30 Track forecast results from the global 

ensemble model with 11 members. The line with the 

dots shows the best track. 

The green line is a control run, and the yellow lines 

are derived from the ensemble members. 

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with a horizontal grid spacing of 60 km and different 

initial conditions every 12 hours starting from 4 days 

before Vera made landfall. In all the simulated cases, 

Vera was predicted to make landfall in Japan. Among 

the forecasts, the one with an initial time of 0900 JST 

on 24 September 1959 showed the outcome closest 

to the best track. Then, ensemble forecasts with 11 

members were performed by perturbing the initial 

conditions using the same time. The results (Figure 

30) indicate that all the members predicted realistic 

tracks making landfall in Japan, with the locations of 

landfall widely distributed across southern coastal 

areas of the country. However, the tracks were less 

varied and stayed close to the best track until Vera 

passed the 30°N point. 

3. Intensity and storm surge experiment 

To predict the intensity of Vera and the associated 

storm surge more accurately, a high-resolution 

mesoscale model was needed to make the initial 

conditions as realistic as possible. For this purpose, 

JNoVA (JMA’s Non-hydrostatic model Variational 

data Assimilation system) was used to implement 

mesoscale analysis for a period of 24 hours from 

0900 JST on 25 September 1959 with a 3-hour 

assimilation window. We also assimilated dropsonde 

data for Vera obtained through US military aircraft 

reconnaissance and archived at JMA. We performed 

36-hour forecast experiments using the results of this 

analysis and the non-hydrostatic model with a grid 

spacing of 5 km from 0900 JST on 26 September, 

1959 (9 hour before the landfall). Figure 31 shows 

the results of the numerical experiment; it indicates 

that Vera makes landfall on the Kii Peninsula, and the 

amount of precipitation was successfully simulated. In 

addition, the time difference of landfall between the 

simulation and the analysis based on the best track 

is less than an hour. Figure 32 shows a pseudosatellite 

image artificially produced from the output 

of the numerical simulation. Such realistic imagery 

was not available 50 years ago because the first 

geostationary meteorological satellite (GMS) over the 

western Pacific was launched in 1977. 

Figure 31 Intensity forecast for Vera created using 

JMA’s non-hydrostatic model at 17 JST on 26 Sep., 

1959. The colors represent three-hourly cumulative 

rainfall values, and the contours indicate surface 

pressure. 

Figure 32 Pseudo-satellite image of Vera 

simulated by JMA’s non-hydrostatic model 

After the numerical simulation using the mesoscale 

model, storm surge predictions were performed 

using the Princeton Ocean Model and the output from 

the numerical simulation as atmospheric forcing. The 

predicted sea-level height at the port of Nagoya was 

very close to the observed value (Figure 33).

Figure 33 Storm surge observation and forecast for 

the port of Nagoya. The red line shows the forecast 

results, the blue line indicates the astronomical tide 

level, and black line with dots plots the observed 

values. 

4. Summary 

From these experiments, it is deemed possible to 

obtain highly accurate predictions for Vera using the 

latest forecast techniques. An important consideration 

of this outcome is that the numerical model used in 

the present experiments is based on the operational 

version at JMA, suggesting high potential to predict 

the tracks and intensity of large typhoons such as 

Vera using the current operational prediction system. 

(KRA1, 2, 4, 5) 






International Collaboration. 


a-1. Designation of TCC as a WMO Regional 

Climate Center 

JMA’s Tokyo Climate Center (TCC) was established 

with the aim of promoting the application of climate 

information in various fields, including the prevention 

of disasters due to extreme climate events, 

agricultural production planning and water resource 

management in the Asia-Pacific Region. TCC 

provides National Meteorological and Hydrological 

Services (NMHSs) in this region with basic climate 

data and products through its website; these include 



long-range forecast products, El Niño monitoring and 

outlook reports, world climate monitoring, climate 

system monitoring and global warming projection. 

The Center also provides capacity-building activities 

through seminars and hands-on training to assist 

NMHSs with climate information services. In 

recognition of its contribution to climate services in 

the region, TCC was designated as one of the first 

WMO Regional Climate Centers (RCCs) together with 

the China Meteorological Administration’s Beijing 

Climate Center. 

(KRA1, 2, 4, 5) 

a-2. TCC News 

TCC issues a quarterly newsletter called TCC News, 

which is available on the TCC website. It covers 

various climate-related topics including the El Niño 

outlook, JMA’s seasonal numerical prediction for 

the coming summer/winter, summaries of Asian 

summer/winter monsoons, reports on extreme 

climate events around the world, and introductions to 

new TCC new services. The latest issue, TCC News 

No. 18, covers a topic on heavy precipitation caused 

by two tropical cyclones in the Philippines from late 

September to early October (http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/ 

tcc/tcc/news/tccnews18.pdf). 

Figure 34 TCC News 

(KRA1, 2, 4, 5) 

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b-1. Japan-China-ROK Trilateral Joint 

Announcement on Water Management Cooperation 

The ministers responsible for water resources of 

Japan, the People’s Republic of China and the Republic 

of Korea shared their views on the importance of 

promoting trilateral cooperation in the field of water 

management at the 5th World Water Forum held in 

Istanbul, Turkey in March 2009. 

In the second Japan-China-ROK Trilateral summit 

meeting on 10 October 2009 in Beijing China, the 

heads of the government agreed to establish a 

mechanism for meeting of ministers responsible for 

water resources in due course, focusing on integrated 

river management and water resources management 

adapting to climate change. 



c-1. First Japan-China-Korea Trilateral Heads 

of Government Agency Meeting on Disaster 

Management 

The heads of government agencies dealing with 

disaster management in Japan, the People’s 

Republic of China and the Republic of Korea held the 

first commemorative Trilateral Meeting on Disaster 

Management in Kobe, Japan on 31st October 2009 

to strengthen cooperation on disaster management 

among the three countries. 

At the meeting, the participating nations confirmed 

the need to continue related efforts and to strengthen 

trilateral cooperation on disaster management. They 

restated their mutual intent to share information on the 

areas outlined below with cooperation from the relevant 

government agencies in each country. The three nations 

also affirmed the need to collectively promote research 

and other efforts on specific areas in which they reached 

consensus through the process of sharing information. 

(1) Sharing information and technology on the 

countermeasures to the disasters which are expected 

to increase due to climate change, and deepening 

discussion on future technological developments and 

their utilization among the three countries; 

(2) Discussing the future cooperation to promote 

earthquake-proofing of buildings in the three 

countries by sharing information on the current 

efforts and other information on earthquake-proofing 

of buildings; 

(3) Promoting the information sharing on the current 

efforts by the three countries to utilize satellite 

technologies for disaster management, and, from the 

viewpoint of humanitarian concern in the wake of 

disasters, discussing the possibility of cooperation for 

more efficient and effective operations of utilizing 

satellite images. 

The member nations also reaffirmed their intent to 

discuss ways to promote further information sharing 

regarding knowledge, experience and lessons learned 

from past disasters in the three countries. 

The participants additionally exchanged views on 

further trilateral efforts for disaster management 

in the following areas with cooperation among the 

relevant government agencies of each country: 

(1) Holding expert-level seminars on the training 

for human resources of disaster management 

and sharing expertise in this field including training 

curricula, in light of the importance of human 

resources development in disaster management; 

(2) Strengthening cooperation with international 

disaster management organizations located in 

the three countries and in international disaster 

management conferences to be held in the three 

countries. 

These agreements were enshrined in the Trilateral 

Joint Statement on Disaster Management Cooperation, 

which was signed by the heads of the government 

agencies in charge of disaster management in the 

three countries. 

c-2. Urban Search-and-Rescue Training in 

Singapore as an ADRC Disaster Mitigation Activity 

The Singaporean government holds a training course 

every year for search-and-rescue officers. The 

course has been receiving trainees from outside 

Singapore for the past eight years and providing 

training on search-and-rescue expertise required 

in urban disaster situations. The training facility 

complex of the Civil Defence Academy (CDA) inder 

the Singapore Civil Defence Force (SCDF) is among 

the best of its kind in Asia, and as part of efforts to 

utilize its expertise and facilities, the Asian Disaster 

Reduction Center (ADRC) has been inviting relevant 

officers from member countries to the training course 

since 2001. Officers from the Kingdom of Bhutan, the 

Republic of Kazakhstan, Mongolia, and the Kingdom of 

Thailand participated in this year’s course from 5 to 

16 January 2009 (two weeks). 


Results 

Figure 35 Urban search-and-rescue training in

Singapore 

d-1. Ninth Typhoon Committee Training Seminar 

at the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center 

The RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center assumes the 

responsibility of assisting members of the ESCAP/ 

WMO Typhoon Committee with typhoon forecasting 

services. One of the activities of the Center is to 

hold on-the-job training on typhoon operations for 

forecasters in the region to improve analysis and 

forecast skills by exchanging views and sharing 

experiences in the field. 

This year, two forecasters – Ms. Huang Bin from 

China (China Meteorological Administration) and 

Ms. Marcella James J. from Malaysia (Malaysia 

Meteorological Department) – visited the Japan 

Meteorological Agency (JMA) from 22 to 31 July 

2009 to participate in the ninth Typhoon Committee 

Training Seminar at the RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center. 

Through the course, the two forecasters learned 

about tropical cyclone analysis and forecasting, and 

in particular about analysis using SATAID software (a 

satellite viewer program). 



Figure 36 Ninth Typhoon Committee 

Training Seminar 

(KRA1, 2, 4, 5, 6) 

d-2. The Reinforcement of Meteorological 

Services group training course 

JMA conducted the Reinforcement of Meteorological 

Services group training course as one of the Training 

and Dialogue Programmes of the Japan International 

Cooperation Agency (JICA) from 24 September to 14 

December 2009. The session was one of a series of JICA 

group training courses in meteorology that have been 

provided since 1973 to support capacity building among 

National Meteorological Services. On the course, eight 

participants from eight countries (including Cambodia and 

Myanmar from among the TC members) acquired skills in 

the utilization of satellite data including nephanalysis and 

tropical-cyclone analysis, and learned about the application 

of numerical weather prediction products and radar 

data. The course also included technical tours to private 

weather companies, airlines and mass media in charge of 

disaster prevention/mitigation and risk management to 

highlight state-of-the-art application and communication 

of meteorological information. 

(KRA1, 2, 4, 5, 6) 

d-3. The Capacity Development for Adaptation to 

Climate Change in Asia group training course 

JMA’s Meteorological Research Institute (MRI) 

implemented the Capacity Development for Adaptation 

to Climate Change in Asia group training course as 

one of the Training and Dialogue Programmes of 

the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) 

from 22 May to 16 June 2009. On this course, five 

meteorologists (including staff members from the 

meteorological services of the Philippines, Thailand 

and Vietnam from among the TC members) worked on 

the analysis of 20-km mesh MRI/JMA Atmospheric 

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General Circulation Model (AGCM) results obtained 

using the Earth Simulator in order to investigate the 

current issues of climate change projection in their 

respective countries. (KRA1, 2, 4, 5, 6) 

d-4. International Centre for Water Hazard and 

Risk Management (ICHARM) under the auspices 

of UNESCO 

ICHARM, established on 3 March 2006 under 

an agreement by the Japanese government, 

UNESCO and the Public Works Research Institute, 

actively promotes various activities toward better 

management for water-related disasters. Although 

ICHARM’s scope is global, many of its activities 

target the Asia-Pacific region, including TC members. 

ICHARM initially places priority on risk management 

in relation to flood-related disasters, including those 

induced by typhoons. Training, research and information 

networking are the three pillars of ICHARM activities 

to produce the best practicable strategies for diverse 

localities worldwide and assist in their implementation. 

Below are some notable ICHARM activities during the 

past year. 

Update on ICHARM’s progresses 

1) Training 

i) One-year master’s course program on Waterrelated 

Disaster Risk Reduction (in collaboration with 

GRIPS and JICA since Oct. 2007) 

ii) Local Disaster Management with Flood Hazard Maps 

training course (launched in 2009 in collaboration 

with JICA) 

2) Research 

i) Development of IFAS (Integrated Flood Analysis 

System) 

ii) Research on global trends of water-related 

disasters 

3) Information Networking 

i) Fulfillment of role as secretariat of the International 

Flood Initiative (IFI) - a joint initiative of UNESCO, 

WMO, UN/ISDR and UNU 

ii) Contribution to enrichment of the disaster 

management chapter of WWAP (the World Water 

Assessment Programme) launched in March 2009 

iii) Fulfillment of role as topic coordinator for the 

“Managing Disasters” topic at the 5th World Water 

Forum held in March 2009 in Istanbul. 

iv) Extension of technical assistance to selected Asian countries 

in collaboration with ADB (launched in Nov. 2009) 

Many of the above activities contribute to the 

enhancement of social, economic, environmental and 

institutional aspects of disaster risk reduction in the 

TC region. ICHARM also provides related information 

on its website at http://www.icharm.pwri.go.jp/. 

(KRA1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6) 


e-1. Expert services of the Japan Meteorological 

Agency (JMA) 

- Two JMA experts visited the Hong Kong Observatory 

in February 2009, to give lectures at the numerical 

weather prediction/nowcasting workshop. The 

workshop was attended by participants from China, 

Viet Nam and Macau. 

- Two JMA experts visited the Malaysian 

Meteorological Department in June 2009, as trainers 

for the workshop on marine forecasting models for 

storm surge, wave and oil spill. 

- Two JMA experts visited the Korea Meteorological 

Administration in September 2009 for sharing 

experience on radar operation systems to help 

improve the systems in the Republic of Korea. 

e-2. Technical visits to JMA 

- A numerical weather prediction expert from the 

Malaysian Meteorological Department visited JMA for 

technical exchange on JMA’s non-hydrostatic model 

in September 2009. 

- A numerical weather prediction expert from the 

Hong Kong Observatory visited JMA 

for technical exchange on JMA’s non-hydrostatic 

model and its 3D variational data assimilation system 

in January 2010. 




1. A basic design study for the project to upgrade 

the radar system in the Philippines 

The government of Japan has exchanged a letter with 

the government of Philippines about an agreement on 

the project named Improvement of the Meteorological 

Radar System in the Philippines. This is a project 

for sponsorship by Japan’s Grant Aid program, 

and is implemented by The Japan International 

Cooperation Agency (JICA) to support the upgrading 

of the radar observation system run by the Philippine 

Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services 

Administration (PAGASA). In this project, three 

Doppler radars and VSAT system will be installed.

MACAO, CHINA 


of Life from Typhoon-related Disasters. 






A new EEC dual-polarization X-band Doppler radar 

was purchased. It is still under testing, after the 

installation in the end of 2009, and is expected to 

put into operation before the rainstorm and typhoon 

seasons of 2010. 


Cooperation among different government organizatio 

ns for the establishment of an automatic water level 

monitoring system has completed and the Storm 

Surge Warning was launched on 7 April 2009. 



In respect of reducing loss of life from typhoon- 

related disasters, the Slope Safety Group, formed 

by relevant departments and organizations from 

the Government or private sector, has inspected all 

the 183 slopes and classified them into 3 categories, 

namely Low, Medium or High Risk Slope. 

Maintenance and reinforcement works are being 

carried out and prioritized in terms of risk. 

In order not to cause any of casualties by the fal 

len objects such as trees or billboards due to the 

strong winds of typhoon, a government department, 

named Civic Municipal Affairs (IACM), enhanced its 

inspections and has given proper treatment to those 

risky trees and billboards. 



Since some of power distribution boxes in low-lyin 

g areas emitted smoke or on fire due to immerse in 

flooding, the power company is now gradually kicking 

off improvement works, including further uplifting 

the positions of those boxes and replacing some 

old cables, to avoid the similar occurrences in the 

future. 


Results 

Two woman forecasters received five-day on-job 

tr aining at the Central Forecasting Office of Hong 

Kong Observatory in October 2009, covering the area 

of tropical cyclone forecasts and warnings. 

One forecaster participated in the TC Roving Semi nar 

held in Nanjing, China on 16-19 September 2009, 

focusing on topics of analysis and forecasting 

of high-impact weather associated with tropical 

cyclones, formulation and compilation of tropical 

cyclone warning messages, and communication and 

broadcasting of warning messages. 

Twenty-one meteorological personnel completed a 

f ive-day training course provided by the EEC radar 

company. 


The Cooperation Arrangement between Macao 

Meteorol ogical and Geophysical Bureau (SMG) and 

Zhuhai Meteorological Bureau was signed on 6 June 

2009, highlighting meteorological data exchange and 

co-weather-briefing especially during the passage of 

tropical cyclones. 



Closer cooperation with Zhuhai Meteorological 

Bureau, as well as other meteorological 

organizations in the Pearl River Delta region, is aimed 

and needed to carry out. 


Typhoon-related Social and Economic 

Impacts. (List progress on the Strategic 

Goals and Associated Activities in the 

Strategic Plan and progress on the 2008 

Typhoon Committee Annual Operating Plan 

goals) 


Please refer to Key Result Area 1(a). 

To enhance the efficiency of information 

dispatch during severe weather, especially 

tropical cyclones, among SMG and different 

2009 

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organizations within Civil Protection Framework 

and under the Secretary for Transport and Public 

Works, a restricted page was constructed on 

Informac, the government intranet, for decision 

makers so as to promote better awareness and 

preparedness. 





Flooding taking place at coastal and low lying 

ar eas is one of the major impacts of typhoon, 

inducing causing to the residents and shops in these 

areas loss of property and certain inconvenience. 

For this reason, Macao Government plans to 

expand the pumping station in Taipa and build a new 

station in the Inner Habour to upgrade the capacity 

of pumping out storm water during typhoons. In 

addition, the government has also made efforts to 

strengthen the capability of storm water drainage by 

implementing a phased improvement work on the 

drainage network these years. 

The IACM has worked closely with the franchise 

co mpany for fighting floods by clearing up the 

drainage before and immediately after typhoon, 

and disposing promptly all wastes brought to the 

streets by floods and strong winds, to ensure the 

water discharge and get the entire operation of the 

city back to normal earlier. 

Clearance of sewers 

Source: IACM

The power company continued to improve the power 

networks to better cope with flooding in the future 

and reduce its impact on the society and also 

citizens’ losses. 

Since telecommunications services failure had tak en 

place during the typhoon in the past, in this regard, 

the telecommunication company was requested to 

improve their services by any means and establish 

some relevant emergency contingency plans to 

reduce the impact on their users and also avoid any 

postponement of rescue works due to an unexpected 

networks failure. 


Results 

Although group visits had been suspended for 

several months due to HINI, 627 students and 

citizens were recorded visiting SMG headquarters in 

2009, to have better understanding of our operation 

and the meaning of different warnings hoisted/ 

issued. 





Please refer to Key Result Area 1(f). 



Betterment of Quality of life. (List progress on 

the Strategic Goals and Associated Activities 

in the Strategic Plan and progress on the 2009 

Typhoon Committee Annual Operating Plan goals) 


Nil. 


Nil. 


Achievements/Resul 

Please refer to Key Result Areas 1(c) and 2 (c). 

Macao Government continued to improve Macao’s 

soc ial services and facilities, including establishment 

of a complementary center for victims of disaster, 

improvement of all centers’ facilities, food and other 

related services for victims. 




Results 

Nil. 


Nil. 



Nil. 



Various Sectors. (List progress on the Strategic 


Plan and progress on the 2009 Typhoon Committee 



Nil. 


Nil. 



To enhance the members’ disaster response 

capabili ties in Civil Protection System and 

improve the communications and cooperation 

between members, the Macao Security Forces 

Coordination Office continued to carry out the 

following prevention activities prior to the coming of 

the typhoon season: 

- Reviews on all emergency contingency plans and 

update of any necessary information. 

- A large-scale joint exercise with all members 

involved in Civil Protection System was conducted, 

so as to test the operation procedures of 

the Typhoon Emergency Plan and draw out any 

weaknesses for amendment. 

- An annual conference with all members involved to 

review all typhoon- 

related mechanisms and measures, and seek 

solutions to the problems found in the join exercise 

stated above, was held. 

- The promotion works on typhoon prevention by 

distribution of the 

typhoon-related brochures or booklets, and advertising 

on TV and Radio, were continuously carried out. 

- The importance of establishing any necessary 

emergency contingency measure in various fields in 

advance is recognized. In this regards, jointly with the 

2009 

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power company and some other relevant government 

departments, the Office is now establishing a 

measure entitled “Emergency Power Rationing 

Procedure”, to ensure reliable power supply and cope 

with all occurrences of large-scale blackout in any 

circumstances. 

Apart from the activities stated above, a series o f 

other works were taken by the Security Forces 

Coordination Office in collaboration with the 

members in the Civil Protection System for 

enhancing the effectiveness of the system as 

well as improving the smoothness of its operation. 

For examples: 

- A newly set-up department, namely “Traffic 

Affairs Bureau”, has been included into the Civil 

Protection System, to facilitate the operation of the 

system by coordinating and helping all related issues 

and measures, and reporting all update news about 

the traffic, particularly during the typhoon. 

- Meetings were held with relevant government 

departments and the power company. Discussions 

on the emergency plans relating to the power 

supply and the solutions to the blackouts caused by 

flooding were made. 

- Measures, which are useful to the works on 

disposal of fallen objects, 

mainly trees and billboards, were reviewed, and 

methodologies for flood improvement were also 

discussed. 

- An additional meeting to review the typhoon 

“Koppu” and seek 

improvement on the Civil Protection System and all 

related mechanisms was held with all members 

concerned. 

- The further improvement on the mechanism for 

dissemination of typhoon- 

related news and reports on related incidents was 

discussed with the Government Information Bureau. 

- For the comprehensive development of the Civil 

Protection System, a study on the possibility of 

including a newly formed government department, 

namely Environmental Protection Bureau, into the 

system, has started. 


Results 

Nil. 


Nil. 



Nil. 



Disasters. (List progress on the Strategic Goals 





Nil. 


Nil. 



Government officials and representatives of

community associations visited the affected 

districts to collect opinions and facts on the 

impact of Koppu and typhoons in general, aiming at 

enhancing communications between the government 

and the communities. 

Visits to the flooding affected districts 

Source: IACM 


Results 

Nil. 


Nil. 



Nil. 




Typhoon-related Threats. (List progress on the 






Internal working procedures during tropical 

cyclones approaching at the Meteorological Watch 

Centre of SMG was revised annually in early year and 

resulted in more frequent and timely information 

of tropical cyclones and their warnings released 

to the public through television, radio, mobile phones, 

etc. 



The Storm Surge Warning provided information of 

effective period, maximum height of water level 

predicted and affected districts expected, that 

should be announced at least 6 -12 hours ahead. 

Display of water data from the automatic water lev el 

monitoring system is still under development with the 

aim of providing legible products to all users. 





Dissemination of all real time typhoon-related 

information has been continuously carried out 

via such means as newspaper, TV, radio and 

cell phone. Besides, the information has also been 

shown on the display screens/LED information 

boards installing in various immigration checkpoints, 

and widely expanding in most of major avenues or 

government departments. 

In order to let the public get easier access to an d 

understand much more about the information on 

the civil protection related issues and relative 

impacts on the society, Macao Security Forces 

Coordination Office has started the construction of a 

relative website. 

A draft layout of the website 

Creating of a platform for exchanging any timely 

emergency incidents in pre-defined scale with 

relevant government departments or agencies of 

Guangdong Province and Macao, and sharing with 

each others all related information, including the 

information on natural disasters and relevant 

emergency mechanisms, is now being undertaken. 


Results 


The public weather server (PWS) had been set 

up to provide unique and timely meteorological 

data, especially tropical cyclone information, easily 

accessed and downloaded both by the government 

organizations and mass media themselves. 

All the mobile phone users can apply for the 

2009 

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tropi cal cyclone warnings through SMS free of 

charge, after a revised arrangement made between 

SMG and the four mobile phone companies in Macao. 

RSS, e-ME (e-mails to registered users) and InfoMet 

(a software run on top of Microsoft Windows System) 

were first open to internet users to obtain timely 

tropical cyclones and severe weather warnings. 

The new meteorological office at Macao-Hong Kong 

Ferry Terminal for easy access of ship companies 

and tourists, especially during tropical cyclone 

signals hoisted, was officially open on 10 December 

2009. 





Please refer to Key Result Area 1(f). 

The present SMG website (http://www.smg.gov.mo) 

and the Informac will be enriched 

with more tropical cyclone 

information open to the public, 

especially the radar and satellite 

imagery in 2010. 

7. Progress on Key Result Area 7: 

Enhanced Typhoon Committee’s 

Effectiveness and International 

Collaboration. (List progress 

on the Strategic Goals and 

Associated Activities in the 

Strategic Plan and progress on 

the 2009 Typhoon Committee 


a. Meteorological Achievements/ 

Results 

SMG has continued supporting the Typhoon 

Committee research project of “Assessment 

of impacts of climate change on tropical cyclone 

frequency and intensity in the Typhoon Committee 

region”. An expert meeting was held in Macao, on 

14-15 December 2009. 

SMG participated in the 1stTRCG Technical Forum 

held in Jeju, Republic of Korea on 12-15 May 2009; 

the Integrated Workshop of Building Sustainability 

and Resilience in High Risk Areas of the Typhoon 

Committee: Assessment and Action, in Cebu, the 

Philippines, on 14-18 September 2009; and the 

AWG small meeting in Macao, on 16-17 December 

2009. 





In order to share typhoon-related information with 

members and learn from them, the Security Forces 

Coordination Office continued to join actively in 

the meetings organized by the Typhoon Committee 

as well as the Working Groups of TC. The following 

are the meetings in which the representatives of the 

office participated over the year. 

- 19 to 24 January 2009, 41stSession of Typhoon 

Committee 

- 28 to 29 April 2009, 4thDDP Meeting 

- 14 to 18 September 2009, Integrated Workshop - 

Building Sustainability and Resilience in High Risk 

Areas of the Typhoon Committee: Assessment and 

Action 

The Security Forces Coordination Office also 

conti nued to support to the WGDPP as well 

as its activities by contributing Macao’s reports 

on typhoons “Hagupit” and “Koppu” to the working 

group for making a publication of typhoon-related 

impacts and measures taken to combat the related 

disasters in TC member counties or regions. 


Results 

Nil. 


Nil.



Macao continues contributing the Endowment Fund 



to support the operation of Typhoon Committee 

Secretary for another 4 years. 


Nil. 




Mr. Tong Tin Ngai 

Chief of Meteorological Watch Centre 

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau 

Rampa do Observat rio, Taipa Grande 

Caxia Postal No 93, Macau 

Tel: (853) 88986270 

Fax: (853) 28850557 

E-mail: tntong@smg.gov.mo 


Ms. Leong Ka Cheng 

Chief of Meteorological Division 

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau 

Rampa do Observat rio, Taipa Grande 

Caxia Postal No 93, Macau 

Tel: (853) 88986218 

Fax: (853) 28850557 

E-mail: kcleong@smg.gov.mo 


Preparedness 

Mr. Lei Sai Cheong 

Superintendent 

Macao Security Forces Coordination Office Calçada 

dos Quarteis, Edifício da DSFSM 

2009 

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MALAYSIA 

2.0 Summary of progress in Key Result Areas 

2.1 Reduced Loss of Life from Typhoon-related 

Disasters. 

2.1.1 Meteorological Achievements/Results 

JMA-MMD Storm Surge Model 

Many improvements have been made in the Storm 

Surge Modelling at the Malaysian Meteorological 

Department (MMD). 

A new version of the storm surge model presently 

used at the MMD has been available from the Japan 

Meteorological Agency (JMA). The resolution of the 

new storm surge model is 1’. Other modifications 

have also been done such as usage of the 

“continuous calculation” methodology to calculate sea 

level rise and time series display for selected 

locations. Presently only wind barb images are 

being used. 

Recently MMD has managed to modify the JMA – 

MRI version 3 wave model and made it operational. 

Outputs such as significant wave height, swell and 

wind waves have been simulated for up to a period 

of 180 hours. Presently surface pressure and wind 

data from NOGAPS and NCEP are being used 

as initial conditions. Verification is done using 

reanalyzed data from NCEP, ERA40 data and JRA- 

25 data. MMD is trying to increase the area for 

the coarse mesh region so as to obtain more 

accurate boundary values for the fine mesh. 

2.1.2 Hydrological Achievements/Results 

Improvement of Facilities 

The Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) 

to date has installed and operated about 525 

telemetric stations in 38 river basins. In addition, 670 

manual river gauges, 1013 stick gauges and 182 flood 

warning boards have been set up in flood prone areas 

so as to provide additional information during the 

flood season. As part of the local flood warning 

system, about 395 automatic flood-warning sirens 

are being operated. 

An Integrated Flood Forecasting and Warning System 

(iFFRM) for the Klang Valley are being developed. 

For this system, 88 new telemetric stations and 

infrastructure networks will be installed together 

with a flood modelling system that include both 

hydrometeorology and hydrodynamic. To date, about 

99.5% of physical works on the infrastructure 

networks have been completed, while the progress 

for modelling has only reached 20%. 

As reported previously, Kuala Lumpur Stormwater 

Management and Road Tunnel Project (SMART) had 

been completed in July 2007. Since then, SMART 

had successfully diverted floodwater from entering 

Kuala Lumpur City Center. During these periods, 

there were at least 35 major storm events where the 

diversion of excess floodwater by the SMART 

system had saved Kuala Lumpur city center from 

the worst impact of flooding. 

2.1.3 Research, Training, and Other Achievements/ 

Results 

Atmospheric Model-Based Rainfall & Flood 

Forecasting System (AMRFF) 

To improve the efficiency of flood forecasting in 

Malaysia, DID has embarked on the Atmospheric 

Model-Based Rainfall & Flood Forecasting System 

(AMRFF) project. This project is to be completed 

by November 2010. At present; the progress of the 

project is 25%. 

This project has two objectives: 

1. To develop real-time flood forecasting based 

on Atmospheric Model-based Rainfall and Flood 

forecasting (AMRFF) System for providing a realtime 

flood warning and emergency responses in a 

convenient lead-time to the Pahang, Kelantan and 

Johor River Basins. 

2. To develop radar rainfall analyzer and integrator 

for Malaysia (RAIM) to estimate rainfall distribution 

and the rainfall forecast magnitude in the Pahang, 

Kelantan and Johor River Basins. 

On The Job Training (OJT) 

The third OJT was held from 21 July until 23 August 

2009 at DID office (Hydrology and Water Resources 

Division), Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. The programme 

was arranged for 23 days to cover all the modules 

that have been planned by the Department. 

The on-the job training program is to enable 

participants to: 

Gain knowledge, appreciation and experience on use 

of the Tank Model for flood forecasting 

Configure a flood forecasting model based on 

the Tank Model for a selected catchments in the 

participant’s country 

Calibrate the Tank Model and preparing the model 

for operational use in the participant’s respective 

organization Develop an error correction module 

for the Tank Model to enhance forecast accuracy

Develop expertise in writing simple macros 

(MSExcel) to automate model computations – a skill 

which can be used to customize the model and 

further enhance the model in the future 

The third OJT was attended by 19 participants, 

comprising of 16 DID Engineers and one each 

from the Thai Meteorological 

Department, Water Resources and Environment 

Administration, Laos and Pearl River Commission, 

Ministry of Water Resources, China.This program 

consists of 11 elements as shown in the Table 4 

below. 

Table 4: The OJT programme schedule 



National Slope Master Plan Study 

The Public Works Department (PWD) has completed 

a study on National Slope Master Plan with the 

aim of providing a comprehensive documentation 

for slope management and disaster risk reduction 

strategy for landslides. At the First World Landslide 

Forum in Japan in November 2008, the United Nations 

International Strategy chose the Department as one 

of the Ten World Center of Excellence for disaster 

risk reduction for Disaster Reduction (UNISDR). 

2.2 Minimized Typhoon-related Social and 

Economic Impacts. 

No Training Programme Type Date Week No. 

of 

days 

1 Flood forecasting using the tank 

model 

2 MSExcel Macros 

Lecture 

Lecture 

21 July 

2009 

1 

1 

2 

3 Configuring the Tank Model OJT 2 

4 Data quality checking and processing 

5 

6 

7 

Catchments parameters – calibration 

of model (1) 

Development of Excel macros for automating 

model computations 

Fine tuning model – adjustment of 

flood simulation to improve forecasts 

– calibration of model (2) 

OJT 

2 

28 July 

2 

OJT 

2009 

2 

OJT 

OJT 

8 Site visit to SMART Tunnel Site Visit 

9 

10 

Lecture on telemetry and SCADA, 

Integrating with SCADA/Telemetry 

System and preparing the model for 

real-time flood forecasting, dissemination 

of flood forecast 

Enhancements to model – adapting 

model to changes and additional modules 

(Fill-in Matrix/Rating Curve) 

OJT 

11 Reports/Discussion - 

3 

August 

2009 

10 

August 

2009 

12 

August 

2009 

13 

August 

2009 

3 5 

4 2 

4 1 

4 1 

Lecture 

17 

August 

2009 

5 2 

19 

August 

2009 

5 3 

Total No. of Days 23 

2009 

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PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts 

Studies) 

The Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies 

(PRECIS) regional climate model is being run at the 

Malaysian Meteorological Department (MMD) and the 

National University of Malaysia to study the impacts of 

various climate change scenarios for the 21stcentury 

over the South East Asian region. Lateral boundary 

data of future projection scenarios used are the 

HadCM3 ocean-atmospheric coupled projection 

(A1B scenario) and the HadAM3P atmospheric only 

(B2 and A2 scenarios) projection. The simulations 

were done for the South East Asian region at a 

horizontal resolution of 50 kilometers. Modifications 

were done to PRECIS in order to accommodate 

ECHAM5 lateral boundary data from the Max Planck 

Institute of Germany. The present version has also 

been configured to be able to run parallel on 

a Linux cluster at the Malaysian Meteorological 

Department. With the parallel run capability, the 

simulation period is expected to be drastically 

reduced and the simulations can be conducted at a 

higher horizontal resolution of 25 kilometers. 

The simulations output produced by using PRECIS 

at the MMD and other organisations such as the 

National University of Malaysia and the Vietnam 

Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment 

(IMHEN) are stored in a server at the MMD and can 

be accessed by researchers interested to use the 

data. 

2.2.2 Hydrological Achievements/Results Flood 

Forecasting and Warning (Operation) 

Flood forecasting operations were carried out during 

the flood seasons by the respective DID state offices 

with technical assistance from the National Flood 

Forecasting Center at DID Headquarter. The river 

basins, which have been provided with forecasting 

models, are summarized in Table 5. 

Some of the flood forecasting models have been 

revised in order to improve their performance. 

Flood forecasting models for Johor River, Muar 

River and Batu Pahat River are currently being revised 

using the real time computerized HEC-HMS. 

Table 5 The river basins with forecasting models. 

River 

Basin 

1. Muda 

River 

2. Perak 

River 

3. Muar 

River 

4. Batu Pahat 

River 

5. Johor 

River 

6. Pahang 

River 

7. Kuantan 

River 

8. Besut 

River 

Catchments 

Area 

(km 2 ) 

Number of 

Forecasting 

Point 

Fore casting Model 

4,300 2 Stage Regression 


6,600 2 

Linear Transfer 

Function 

2,600 2 Stage Correlation 

3,250 2 Regression Model 

29,300 3 

Linear Transfer 

Function and 

Stage Regression 

(back-up) 

2,025 1 Tank Model 


2.2.3 Disaster Prevention and Preparedness 


Rapid development, unplanned urbanization, 

climate change and environmental degradation 

have caused worse and more frequent occurrence 

of flash floods especially in urban areas. Apart 

from conventional Flood Mitigation Projects, 

the Stormwater Management and Road Tunnel 

(SMART) was constructed as an innovative solution 

to alleviate the problem of flash flood in the Kuala 

Lumpur city center. The 9.7 km tunnel integrates 

both storm water management and motorway with 

the same infrastructure. The SMART system diverts 

large volumes of floodwater from entering this critical 

stretch of traffic at the city center via a holding pond, 

bypass tunnel and storage reservoir, preventing 

spillover during heavy downpours. 

2.2.4 Research, Training, and Other 


The ASEAN Regional Workshop on PRECIS 

(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) 

was conducted at the Malaysian Meteorological 

Department in October this year. The objectives of the 

workshop are for the Southeast Asian PRECIS users 

to verify their output and exchange experiences 

among the users, especially on how these outputs 

can be used to formulate adaptation strategies for 

the countries concerned and as input to the national 

communication to the UNFCCC. It also discusses the 

application of analysis tools, and suitable and 

reliable manner of using the simulation output.

2.3 Improved Typhoon-related Disaster Risk 

Management in Various Sectors 



Disaster Management Application System 

The Disaster Management Application System 

has been introduced to establish a central system 

for collecting, storing, processing, analyzing, and 

disseminating value-added data and information 

to support the relevant agencies in the mitigation 

and relief activities of disaster management in the 

country. It enables all government agencies to be well 

prepared in handling disasters as it provides important 

data and information about natural disasters. 

Beside, it also emphasizes on the utilization 

of remote sensing technologies, Geographical 

Information System (GIS) and Global Positioning 

System (GPS) technologies to provide up-to-date 

and reliable data to support the three components of 

disaster management, that are, (i) early warning, 

(ii) detection and monitoring, and (iii) mitigation 

and relief for pre, during and post disaster 

management activities coordinated by the National 

Security Council (NSC) and implemented by 

relevant authorities. 

“999” 

999 is the Dedicated Emergency Line of Customer 

Assistance Service (CAS) by Telekom Malaysia 

Berhad (TM) to improve the efficiency of public safety 

agencies in Malaysia. It provides reliable “on-line/ 

real-time” information database of any or all public 

safety/security activities, records and/or incidents. 

999 Response Centre receives the call in 10 seconds, 

and determines correct Problem Nature and priority. 

The call will be transferred to the related agencies for 

immediate response. 

Guidelines for Development Projects 

The Department of Irrigation and Drainage and the 

Federal Department of Town and Country Planning 

produced several guidelines for development 

projects, namely the Urban Stormwater 

Management Manual (MSMA) in 2000 and Land 

Use Planning Appraisal For Risk Areas (LUPAr) 

in 2005. Local authorities in the assesment and 

execution of physical developments implement these 

guidelines. 

Reviewing the Directive No. 20 of the National 

Security Council (NSC) 

The National Security Council Directive No. 20 (NSC 



No. 20) or The Policy and Mechanism for National 

Disaster and Relief Management is the main guideline 

for disaster management in Malaysia. This directive 

prescribes the mechanism on management of 

disasters including the responsibilities and functions 

of related agencies under an integrated emergency 

management system. This is achieved through 

the establishment of The Disaster Management 

and Relief Committee at three different levels 

pending the severity of the disaster. The three 

levels mentioned are the federal, state and district. 

At the Federal level, the Minister appointed by the 

Prime Minister chairs this committee. The directive 

is supported by other Standard Operating Procedures 

which outline the mechanism as well as roles 

and responsibility of various agencies for specific 

disasters, such as floods, open burning, forest 

fire, haze, industrial disasters etc. 

The National Security Directive No. 20 issued by 

The National Security Council, Prime Minister 

Department encompasses the policy and mechanism 

on national relief and disaster assistance. Disaster 

management through effective coordination and 

integrated approach towards building a culture of 

prevention and civil protection is the objective of 

the policies and mechanisms in line with the directive. 

The Department of Social Welfare has 4 main tasks 

as stipulated in the 

Standard Operational Procedures (SOP) under the 

Directive as follows: 

i. Management of evacuation centers; 

ii. Assistance in the form of food, clothing and 

other necessities 

including family disaster kit; 

iii. Registration of victim; and 

iv. Guidance and counseling 

On top of that the Department of Social Welfare 

will also continue to assist the families who are 

seriously affected by disaster in order to help them 

to return to their normal daily life. This is considered 

as a long-term intervention or management process 

. 

2.3.2 Regional Cooperation Achievements/ 

Results 

Regional Cooperation 

Malaysia was appointed as the Chairman of the ASEAN 

Committee on Disaster Management (ACDM) during 

the 11th Meeting of the ADCM on 17-29 March 2008 

in Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia. The ACDM was 

established in early 2003 for coordinating regional 

cooperation in disaster management to minimise the 

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adverse impact of disasters on the economic and 

social development of Member Countries. The 

ACDM continues to function as a significant platform 

to foster mutual support and assistance in disaster 

management among Member Countries through 

capacity building programs, coordination and 

multilateral cooperation. The ACDM also played 

an important role during the Cyclone Nargis event 

in Myanmar particularly in response and recovery 

activities conducted by the ASEAN Emergency 

Rapid Assessment Team (ERAT) and ASEAN 

Humanitarian Task Force (AHTF) for cyclone victims. 

In addition to the efforts taken above, Malaysia had 

also sent a Medical Team to Myanmar from 25 

June until 9 July 2008, comprising 25 experts 

from the Ministry of Health, the Malaysian Armed 

Forces and non-government organisations (NGOs). 

Prior to the deployment of the team, Malaysia has 

also sent relief items and medical supplies to the 

people of Myanmar. In regard to the disastrous 

Typhoons Ketsana and Parma that struck parts of 

the Philippines on September and October 2009, 

Malaysia had already sent 42 tones of relief items 

on 16 October, 18 October and 19 October 2009 

to the Republic of Philippines. 

Malaysia has been tasked to lead the Sub- 

Committee for the development of ASEAN 

Standard Operating Procedure for Regional Standby 

Arrangements and Coordination of Joint Disaster 

Relief and Emergency Response Operations 

(SASOP) together with the Philippines, Thailand, 

Singapore and ASEAN Secretariat. During the 11th 

ACDM Meeting in Kota Kinabalu Sabah, Sections I to 

Section V of the ASEAN SASOP were adopted for 

implementation. 

2.4 Strengthened Resilience of Communities to 

Typhoon-related Disasters. 

2.4.1 Hydrological Achievements/Results 

Technical Advancement 

The InfoBanjir website (http://infobanjir.water.gov. 

my) continues to be enhanced and improved in 

terms of technology, hardware, procurement and 

network expansion as well as its contents to meet 

the customer’s requirement. It has recently included 

rainfall isohyet maps where users can monitor and 

assess the severity of rainfall of the previous 

events. It has also included the improvement of on-line 

flood reporting in order to expedite the dissemination 

of the flood reports to the top management. 



National Disaster Relief Trust Fund (NDRF) 

The Government has established the National Disaster 

Relief Fund to provide financial assistance to 

disaster victims. Building on the experience of the 

widespread monsoon flood in 2006, the Government 

through the Central Bank of Malaysia has allocated 

RM500 million worth of special relief guarantee 

facility (SRGF) to be administered by all commercial 

banks, Bank Perusahaan Kecil & Sederhana Malaysia 

Berhad, Bank Kerjasama Rakyat Malaysia Berhad 

and Bank Pertanian Malaysia aimed at recovering 

businesses and rebuilding damaged infrastructure 

in areas affected by disasters. 

The response to the facility was very encouraging 

with 4,641 applications being approved, amounting 

to approximately RM472 million. This facility is an 

example of public-private-partnership in which the 

commercial banks provide the financing with 2.5% 

interest to the borrower whilst the Central Bank 

covers an additional 2.45% of interest and 80% 

guarantee of the financing obtained. 

Cooperative Establishment 

The establishment of a cooperative in the form 

of Amanah Ikhtiar Malaysia (The Endeavor Trust 

of Malaysia) in 1987 has improved the resilience 

of communities previously vulnerable to disasters. 

Currently, Amanah Ikhtiar Malaysia provides 

service to more than 180,000 families in Malaysia. 

Services provided include micro financing, 

compulsory savings and welfare funds for the poor 

and marginalized. 


Achievements/Results Enhancement of Public 

Education and Awareness 

To instill disaster risk reduction awareness among 

the public, various initiatives were introduced. 

These include awareness programs for disasters 

such as landslides, tsunami, and floods by the Public 

Works Department, the Malaysian Meteorological 

Department, the Ministry of Education and National 

University of Malaysia under the Southeast Asia 

Disaster Prevention Institute. 

Several programs have been implemented to improve 

the resilience of schools and hospitals against 

disasters. The Ministry of Education in collaboration 

with civil societies and UNICEF has put forward 

initiatives such as the School Watching Program and 

SMART Support Team in schools. The Ministry of 

Health celebrated National Health Day by adopting

the theme of the World Health Day on “Save 

Lives - Make Hospitals Safe in Emergencies”. In 

addition, the Southeast Asia Disaster Prevention 

Institute of the National University of Malaysia held a 

national forum on “Hospitals Safe from Disaster” in 

conjunction with the World Health Day. 

Trainings, seminars and drills are constantly 

organized by Government agencies to enhance their 

skills and expertise in disaster management as well 

as to implement community-based disaster reduction 

programs and awareness for vulnerable groups. 

In our effort to establish a sustainable and 

resilient environment for local communities, the 

Government has encouraged the participation 

and involvement of non-governmental organizations 

(NGO) in disaster risk reduction programs. NGOs and 

civil societies play a profound role in exploring a more 

proactive function in enhancing public awareness in 

disaster risk prevention, mitigation and preparedness. 

Malaysia also declared 26 December as the disaster 

awareness day since 2005. In 2008, the theme 

chosen was “Disaster Risk Reduction on Highland 

Development” aimed at promoting disaster risk 

reduction measures in development planning. 

Safety Guideline in Disaster and Crisis Situation 

has been developed and distributed to schools and 

community leaders in order to provide awareness 

and guideline to the public to response accordingly 

to disaster and crisis situation. 

2.4.4 Regional Cooperation Achievements/ 

Results Regional and International Platform 

Malaysia was succesfully organised The Third 

Asian Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk 

Reduction (AMCDRR) on 2-4 December 2008 in 

Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia in collaboration with 

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster 

Reduction (UNISDR) and other partners. The main 

outcome of the Conference, the Kuala Lumpur 

Declaration highlighted the importance of Multistakeholder 

Partnership for Disaster Risk Reduction 

with special emphasis on public-private-partnership 

for disaster risk reduction and community-based 

disaster risk reduction actions. The Conference was 

attended by Ministers and government officials from 

43 countries as well as representatives from relevant 

international and regional organisations. 

Malaysia also involves with international and 

regional platforms organised by the Asian 

Disaster Reduction Centre (ADRC), Asian Disaster 

Preparedness Center (ADPC), Typhoon Commitee 

(TC), United Nations Office for the Coordination of 



Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), and its subsidiary 

bodies, the United Nations Disaster Assessment 

and Coordination (UNDAC) and International Search 

and Rescue Advisory Group (INSARAG) as well as 

Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC). 

2.5 Improved Capacity to Generate and Provide 

Accurate, Timely, and understandable Information 

on Typhoon-related Threats. 


Hardware and Software Upgrade 

Hardware upgrades are being done to the 

data storage system of the Numerical Weather 

Prediction system at the Malaysian Meteorological 

Department. The size of the storage is to increase 

by 4 terabytes and the data storage of all three 

operational numerical weather systems (Two Shared 

Memory Processor SGI 64 blade with each blade 

having 2 dual core Intel Itanium processors and a 

Linux cluster with two head nodes and nine compute 

nodes whereby each node is having four single core 

AMD Opteron processors) are to be shared together 

using an additional server via a gigabit ethernet 

switch. 



Research and Training 

Current on-going research activities at MMD 

include “Heavy Rainfall Episodes During The 

Northeast Monsoon Season”, “The Impact of Tropical 

Cyclones in the Bay of Bengal On the Rainfall 

in Malaysia”, “Verification of the MMD-WAM 

Significant Wave Height Gridded Output using In 

Situ Measurement and Satellite Derived Data”, “Case 

Studies of Northeast Monsoon Surges”, “ Climate 

Extremes Projection for Malaysia” and “Preliminary 

studies of Ensemble Forecasting at the Malaysian 

Meteorological Department”. 

The objectives of the “Heavy Rainfall Episodes 

During The Northeast Monsoon Season” and “Case 

Studies of Northeast Monsoon Surges” studies 

are to examine the precursors and maintenance 

of heavy rainfall episodes over the east coast of 

Peninsular Malaysia and Sarawak during the 

Northeast Monsoon season from November to 

February. 

Rainfall records of local meteorological stations 

from 1951 to 2008, reanalysis gridded NCEP data, 

ERA40 data from ECMWF and JRA data from JMA 

are analyzed to study the evolution of vorticity, 

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divergence, vertical motion and potential vorticity 

fields as well as the equatorward propagation of 

the cold surges in triggering monsoon disturbances 

over the South China Sea and subsequently causing 

heavy rainfall especially over the coastal areas of east 

coast of Peninsular Malaysia and Sarawak. 

Research work on ensemble forecasting related 

to numerical weather modeling and verification of the 

operational wave model is part of an effort to obtain 

more accurate and reliable numerical forecasts. The 

research work on climate extremes is an effort to 

investigate the behavior of extreme phenomena 

related to the Malaysian climate using A1B, A2 and B2 

scenario outputs. There is very little work done 

thus far to look at the impacts of tropical cyclones 

in the Bay of Bengal upon the weather in Malaysia. 

This work will definitely gives very useful information 

on how the tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal 

influence the weather over Malaysia, especially 

Peninsular Malaysia. 

Two officers from the MMD had attended the numerical 

weather modeling related training at the Korea 

Meteorological Administration (KMA) and the Japan 

Meteorological Agency (JMA). The training session 

at KMA was related to data assimilation processes 

involved in using WRF-VAR. Meanwhile the training 

session at JMA was to introduce the operational 

numerical weather model at JMA and to impart technical 

know how regarding methodology of using initial 

conditions from the JMA numerical weather model. 

Four scientists from the Chinese Meteorological 

Administration (CMA) were also invited to MMD 

to introduce the concepts of Typhoon Bogussing, 

verification of numerical weather prediction output 

and ensemble technique to MMD officers. 

Courses related to flood and hydrology organized 

by the Department of Drainage and Irrigation (DID) 

during this year are as follows: 

i. “Basic Hydrology for Engineers”, Kuala Lumpur, 5 

– 7 May 2009. 

ii. “Applied Hydrology for Engineers”, Kuala Lumpur, 

17 - 19 Feb 2009. 

iii. “Hydraulics and Catchment Modelling”, Kuala 

Lumpur, 23 – 26 Mac 2009. 

iv. “Hydraulics and Flood Mapping Modelling”, Kuala 

Lumpur, 4 – 6 August 2009. 

v. “3rdOn The Job Training (OJT)”, DID, Kuala 

Lumpur, 21 July – 23 August 2009. 

Information and Communication Technology (ICT) 

In this age of information, the media plays a crucial 

role in inculcating a culture of safety and resilience. 

The mass media is an effective platform to raise 

awareness among the public on risk reduction 

and disaster preparedness measures. Realizing the 

importance of the media in disaster risk reduction, 

the Ministry of Information, Communication and 

Culture has established a Disaster Unit in the 

Department of Broadcasting Malaysia. 

ICT is also an essential medium to promote awareness 

and disseminate warnings to the community. In this 

respect, a Fixed-Line Disaster Alert System (FLAS) is 

put in place to disseminate disaster alert from the 

authorities to the public. A separate system known 

as the Government Integrated Radio Network (GIRN) 

on the other hand provides radio communication 

between responders during emergency or disaster. 

Disaster reporting by affected civilians is now more 

efficient via the Malaysia Emergency Response 

System (MERS) emergency hotline, 999. 

Early warning information for disasters are 

disseminated via sirens, short messaging system 

(SMS), telephone, telefax, webpage, mass media 

broadcasting system and public announcement. The 

dissemination of information in a timely manner is 

crucial to ensure that the vulnerable communities and 

responders are promptly informed to enable them 

to take necessary actions. 

Towards the end of last year and early this year, 

communication lines at the MMD headquarters and 

Regional Forecast Offices had been upgraded. At the 

headquarters, the LAN lines have been upgraded 

from 3 Mbytes to 8 Mbytes. At the Regional Forecast 

Offices, the LAN lines have been upgraded from 512 

Kbytes to 2 Mbytes. The Short Messaging System 

Meteorological Information System (SMSMIS) was 

operationalized at the end of last year. Dissemination 

of critical weather information and warnings with 

minimal hindrances and at a faster speed has been 

achieved using the upgraded LAN lines. 

3.0 Resource Mobilization Activities 

Department of Social Welfare 

Annually, before the advent of the Northeast 

Monsoon, the Department of Social Welfare 

together with other government agencies do the 

necessary preparations to give the best possible 

aid to victims in the face of severe weather 

related disasters such as flooding and landslides. 

Among the measures that have been adapted are: 

i. Identification of 4744 relief or evacuation centers 

that can handle up to 3 million victims at any one time 

if required; 

ii. 402 ration storage centers have been set up at

strategic locations to enable emergency supplies of 

food, clothing and personal hygiene necessities. Five 

(5) large depots at different regions of the regularly 

affected areas have also been established this year to 

improve the relief actions, which are to be undertaken; 

iii. 31 localized training activities were organized 

at national and state levels. 1750 officers from 

the Department of Social Welfare and 1689 local 

volunteers were participated in these various 

training exercises. Disaster management measures 

and methodology were discussed in detail using 

the framework of the Standard Operational 

Procedure (SOP) during these various training 

sessions. The training modules were inclusive of 

multi disciplinary disaster management such as 

technical management of impending disasters and 

rehabilitation. 

iv. Relief centers will be managed by Social Welfare 

Officers and assisted 

by volunteers from the National Welfare Brigade. During 

their stay, the disaster victims will be registered and 

those with emotional problems due to the disasters 

will be handled by trained and able councilors. 

Establishment of Central Store 

To ensure that all the necesary resources are 

mobilised during the occurrence of disaster, the 

Deputy Prime Minister with his capacity as 

the chairman of National Disaster Management 

Committee, on 28 November 2007 had approved 

for the establishment of central store to accomodate all 

the assets for disaster relief and operation. Among 

the assets are rescuer bots, trucks, portable 

toilets, tents, mobile kitchens, mobile hospitals etc. 

For the meantime, Ministry of Defence Depot in 

Sungai Buloh, Selangor has been appointed to 

accomodate the assets until the permanent central 

store is completed on 2010. 

ASEAN Standard Operating Procedure 

For Regional Standby Arrangements and 

Coordination of Joint Disaster Relief and 

Emergency Response Operations (SASOP) 

ASEAN Member States signed the ASEAN 

Agreement on Disaster Management and 

Emergency Response (AADMER) on 26 July 2005 

in Vientiane, Lao PDR. The agreement requires for 

the development of standard operating procedures 

to guide the actions among member countries for 

the mobilization of regional standby arrangements 

for disaster relief and emergency response, the 

utilization of military and civilian assets and 



capacities and coordination of joint disaster relief 

and emergency response operations. 

Malaysia has been tasked to lead the Sub-Committee 

for the development of ASEAN Standard Operating 

Procedure for Regional Standby Arrangements 

and Coordination of Joint Disaster Relief and 

Emergency Response Operations (SASOP) 

together with the Philippines, Thailand, Singapore 

and ASEAN Secretariat. SASOP will be finalised in 

the 14th of ACDM Meeting in Jakarta, Indonesia on 31 

November-1 December 2009. 

4.0 Update of Members’ Working Groups 


i. Working Group on Meteorology 

Ms. Che Gayah Ismail 

Deputy Director-General 

Malaysian Meteorological Department 

Jalan Sultan 

46667 Petaling Jaya, Selangor 

Malaysia 

Email: cgayah@met.gov.my 

ii. Working Group on Hydrology 

Mr. Hj. Azmi Md. Jafri 

Deputy Director 

Hydrology and Water Resources Division 

Department of Irrigation & Drainage 

Km. 7, Jalan Ampang 

68000 Ampang 

Kuala Lumpur 

Malaysia 

Email: azmijafri@water.gov.my 

iii. Working Group on Disaster Prevention and 

Preparedness 

Mr Ogu Salim bin Omar 

Under Secretary 

Disaster and Crisis Management Division 

National Security Council 

Aras G, Blok Barat 

Bangunan Perdana Putra 

62502 Putrajaya 

Malaysia 

Email: ogu@mkn.gov.my 

iv. Training and Research Coordinating Group 

Dr. Wan Azli Wan Hassan 

Director, Technical Development Division 

Malaysian Meteorological Department 

Jalan Sultan 

46667 Petaling Jaya, Selangor 

Malaysia 

Email: wanazli@met.gov.my 

2009 

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PHILIPPINES 

Summary of progress in Key Result Areas (For 

achievements/results which apply to more than 

one Key Result Area, please describe them under 

the most applicable Key Result Area. Then, at the 

end of the description, place in parentheses ( ) 

the other applicable Key Result Areas) 

1. Progress on Key Result Area 1: Reduced 

Loss of Life from Typhoon-related Disasters. 


Associated Activities in the Strategic Plan 




PAGASA has already installed 38 automatic 

weather stations all throughout the country. The 

location of which are on the flood prone areas, 

15 for mainland Luzon, 2 for Palawan, 6 for the 

Visayas and 15 for Mindanao. Some of them 

are already operational and the rest are being 

calibrated. 

a. Hydrological Achievements/Results 

· Improvement of the Flood Forecasting and Warning 

System (FFWS) in the Pampanga and Agno River 

Basins under the JICA Grant. 

Phase 1 of the project covering the Pampanga river 

basin has been completed and inaugurated by the Her 

Excellency President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo on 18 

March 2009. 

The construction of the new FFWS Center in 

Pampanga province will facilitate the provision of 

timely forecasts while the newly upgraded FFWS 

will enhance the accuracy of flood forecasts in the 

Pampanga river basin and thereby improving the 

services of PAGASA in flood forecasting and warning. 

The project also provided the MIKE-11 software which 

is now being calibrated. 

· Establishment of Early Warning System for Disaster 

Mitigation in the Philippines under the KOICA Grant 

A network of telemetered rainfall, water level and 

automatic weather stations are now in place in the 

Jalaur river basin in Iloilo province, Agus-Lake Lanao 

catchment in Lanao provinces and in the Aurora and 

allied river basins in Aurora province. During the flood 

season of CY2009, that is, from May to October 2009, 

the said flood early warning system were utilized and 

were proven useful and effective, particularly during 

the passages of tropical cyclones Ketsana and Parma 

in the province of Aurora. Due to the provision of 

flood advisories based on the observed data, at risk 

communities in Aurora province were evacuated and 

no casualties were reported. 

The FEWS in the KOICA project adapts the community 

based approach in the in the analysis and issuance of 

flood advisories and warnings. 

· The Strengthening of Flood Forecasting and 

Warning System for Dam Operation (FFWSDO) 

This project recently took off with the dispatched of 

four (4) JICA Experts. Preliminary surveys and site 

Figure II.1.b.1 Inauguration of the new Pampanga River Basin Flood Forecasting and Warning Center; 

Shown in the figure are: The Philippine President, DOST Secretary, Japanese Ambassador, JICA 

Chief Representative and PAGASA Administrator

visits to the project sites were undertaken including 

the setting up of meetings with four (4) Working 

Groups, namely, Flood Modeling, Data management, 

meteorology and hydrology and telecommunication. 

b. Disaster Prevention and Preparedness 


The UNDP Ready project has sustained the 

implementation of the various components in 

hazard mapping, early warning system and IEC 

programs. 

Figure II.1.c.1 IEC component of the Ready 

project 



Figure II.1.c.2 Damaged school grounds in 

Botolan, Zambales due 

to the passage of Typhoon Emong (Chan-hom) 

It is to be noted that some of the project sites of 

the Ready project that includes the provinces of 

Ilocos Sur, Laguna and Zambales were hardly hit 

by the impacts of a series of tropical disturbances 

in 2009 (Figure 1.c.2). However, based on the 

post flood investigations conducted in the said 

provinces, there were no casualties recorded. 

The communities reported that they were able to 

use the flood early warning facilities in warning 

and evacuation activities. 

c. Research, Training, and Other 


13 Hydrologists and 34 Telecom engineers & 

technicians were trained in connection with the 

Phase 1 of the JICA Grant project on Improvement 

of the Flood Forecasting and Warning System 

(FFWS) in the Pampanga and Agno River Basins 

by JICA Experts. 

d. Regional Cooperation Achievements/ 

Results 

Nil. 

e. Identified Opportunities/Challenges for 

Future Achievements/Results 

· The Exchange of Note (E/N) on the JICA Grant 

project: Enabling Communities for the Adaptation of 

Disaster Prevention and Preparedness Measures for 

Areas Prone to Floods and Rain-induced Landslides 

was signed by the Ambassador of the Embassy of 

2009 

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Japan and the Philippine Secretary of Foreign Affairs 

in October 2009 while the Grant Agreement for the 

Detailed Design was signed in early November 2009. 

· The project Enhancement of Tropical Cyclone 

Early Warning System funded by the Australia’s 

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) geared to improve 

PAGASA-DOST’s forecasting capacity by 15% has 

been completed and inaugurated on 30 October 

2009. The TC module is now used operationally. 

· The feasibility study grant provided by the U.S. 

Trade and Development Agency (USTDA) on the 

Upgrading of the Telecommunication Network of 

PAGASA’s Meteorological and Hydrological Services 

has been completed and the implementation or plan 

is being finalized. 

· The Grant Agreement of the project: 

Improvement of Flood Forecasting & Warning 

System (FFWS) for Magat Dam & Downstream 

Communities funded by the Norwegian Agency 

for Development Cooperation (Norad) has been 

signed on 20 November 2009. The project which 

aims to address the issues and concerns on the 

issuance of a timely and accurate flood forecasts 

and warnings in the Cagayan River Basin and 

the effective operation of the Magat dam for the 

safety of the communities in the downstream 

area will be implemented in CY2010 to 2012. 

Figure II.1.f.1 PAGASA Administrator Dr. P. 

D. Nilo, with DOST Secretary Alabastro, His 

Excellency Ambassador Mr. Knut Solem of 

Norwat and Mr. Kim Johannessen Lande SN 

Power during the signing ceremony. 

· The Memorandum of Agreement between the 

PAGASA and National Grid Corporation of the 

Philippines’ (NGCP) collaborative undertaking for 

the sharing of weather and data services was 

signed at the PAGASA Amihan Conference Room 

in Quezon City on November 24, 2009. 

Figure II.1.f.2 Dr. Prisco D. Nilo, PAGASA 

Administrator, Mr. Walter Brown, 

President of NGCP, together with PAGASA and 

NGCP officials 

This involves enabling NGCP’s subscription to 

the weather and hydro meteorological data 

to support NGCP’s Integrated Action Plan 

(ITAP) that includes the project entitled: Storm 

Tracking Alert and Relay System (STARS). The 

system is expected to pave way for the quick 

implementation of contingency plans and 

activities that will help prepare for and mitigate 

the adverse effects of weather disturbances 

on both transmission facilities and the power 

customers. 



Impacts. (List progress on the Strategic Goals 

and Associated Activities in the Strategic 

Plan and progress on the 2009 Typhoon 







Achievements/Results

Please refer to Key Result Area 1(c). 

d. Research, Training, and Other 


For 2009, more than 5000 students, teachers, 

government personnel, local government units, 

media, etc. were benefitted from the lectures on 

hydro-meteorological hazards, climatic trends 

and climate change by PAGASA personnel and 

officials. 

Under the UNDP Ready project, IEC on how to 

read and interpret multi-hazard maps (hydrometeorological 

and geological) was conducted in 

the provinces of Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, 

Iloilo, Ilocos Sur and Zambales. In addition, IEC 

on community based flood early warning system 

was also undertaken in the provinces of Ilocos 

Sur, Cavite, Aurora, Iloilo and Northern Samar. 

e. Regional Cooperation Achievements/ 

Results 

Nil. 

f. Identified Opportunities/Challenges for 


Nil. 





in the Strategic Plan and progress on the 

2009 Typhoon Committee Annual Operating 

Plan goals) 


Nil. 


· The Joint Operation and Management 

Committee (JOMC) of the FFWSDO, an 

interagency committee that oversees the 

operational and maintenance activities of 

monitored major river basins and reservoirs in 

the Philippines conducted 2 regular meetings. 

The Sub-Committee on Hydrology convened its 

members 4 times. 



The JOMC also had one (1) special meeting with 

the experts from NORAD during the preliminary 

assessment made on the Cagayan and Magat 

FFWS project. 

· Establishment of flood forecasting and warning 

system in the Caliraya-Botokan-Kalayaan (CBK) river 

basin in the province of Laguna has been completed 

and will be made operational in 2010. The FFWSDO 

will operate similar to the existing FFWSDOs. 



Nil. 



Nil. 


Results 

Nil. 



Nil. 


Typhoon-related Disaster Risk Management 

in Various Sectors. (List progress on the 

Strategic Goals and Associated Activities in 

the Strategic Plan and progress on the 2009 


goals) 


· The PAGASA Special Tropical Weather 

Disturbance Reconnaissance, Information 

Dissemination and Damage Evaluation 

(STRIDE) or the PAGASA Quick Response 

Team was dispatched to assess and conduct 

filed investigation and extend assistance in the 

mitigation of meteorological hazards and disaster 

reduction in areas affected by several tropical 

cyclones namely, TY Kujira, TS Ketsana, TY 

Parma, TY Lupit and TS Mirinae. 

In parallel to these activities, other members of 

2009 

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the STRIDE team were assigned at the NDCC 

office to brief concerned officials and the media 

on the status of tropical cyclone. 

· Aside from the regularly press conferences/ 

briefings during the occurrence of a tropical 

cyclone inside PAR, simultaneously these 

warning bulletins and advisories are being sent to 

the different sectors of the society either through 

SMS or emails particularly to the affected areas. 


· Flood hazard mapping activities 

For CY 2009, flood hazard maps in the provinces 

of Benguet and Rizal and Zambales and storm 

surge hazard maps were completed. The 

hazard maps are provided to concerned local 

government units (LGUs) as inputs in updating 

their comprehensive land use plans (CLUPs). 

· Post flood investigations were conducted in 

the provinces of Zambales, Cagayan de Oro, 

Agusan del Sur, Cagayan, Pampanga, Nueva 

Ecija, Pangasinan, Metro Manila, Ilocos Norte, 

Ilocos Sur, La Union and Laguna. 








Results 

On 17 – 19 February 2009, the Philippines 

hosted the East and Southeast Asia Regional 

Flood Hazard Mapping Seminar aimed to 

strengthen the capacity of professionals who 

have acquired trainings in Japan and an avenue 

to share experiences on flood hazard mapping 

techniques and flood disaster management 

tools. The seminar was sponsored by the 

International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk 

Assessment (ICHARM), Public Works Research 

Institute (PWRI), JICA in coordination with the 

Government of the Philippines. 

Figure 4.e.1 Participants and guests in the East 

and Southeast Asia Regional Flood Hazard 

Mapping Seminar held in Manila on 17-19 

February 2009 

Eight (8) countries from East and Southeast Asia 

participated in the seminar as follows: Bangladesh, 

China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, Cambodia 

Laos and the Philippines. Representatives from 

the Typhoon Committee and the Infrastructure 

Development Institute (IDI) of Japan attended the 

seminar. 



The National Grid Corporation of the Philippines 

(NGCP) or the power grid operator got a 

significant boost when PAGASA agreed to 

share its real-time weather information through 

a memorandum of agreement signed on 24 

November 2009. Such information will be 

utilized during emergencies caused by severe 

weather conditions. The system is expected to 

pave the way for the quick implementation of 

contingency plans and activities that will help 

prepare for and mitigate the adverse effects 

of weather disturbances on both transmission 

facilities and the power customers as part of 

NGCP’s Storm Tracking Alert and Relay System 

(STARS). NGCP’s subscription to the weather 

and hydrometeorological data to support NGCP’s 

Integrated Typhoon Action Plan (ITAP). 

NGCP, on the other hand, will be providing 

back-up communication link to the PAGASA 

data center so as to transmit real-time hydrometeorological 

data from flood prone-areas,

particularly in the Magat River Basin and Bicol 

areas. The contract and partnership between 

NGCP and PAGASA is a giant step towards more 

enhanced and responsive contingency measures 

for both companies which in the end will benefit 

many people and may even help save lives and 

properties 


Strengthened Resilience of Communities to 

Typhoon-related Disasters. (List progress on 




Plan goals) 


· The PAGASA-DOST has implemented the 

conduct of press conferences/briefing every 

issuance of a Weather Bulletin and Warning four 

(4) times a day, every 5AM, 11AM, 5PM and 11PM. 

· Weather Forecasters/Meteorologist also joined 

the PAGASA IEC group as regular lecturers to the 

communities concerning hydro-meteorological 

hazards. 


· The PAGASA continues to provide technical assistance 

to non-government organizations (NGOs and CARE- 

ACCORD) in Dingalan, Aurora, Calabanga, Camarines Sur, 

Iriga City and the local government units (LGUs) in San 

Jose del Monte, Bulacan in the installation of rainfall and 

water level gauges for the CBFEWS. 

· For CY2009, the PAGASA also signed MOUs with 3 

NGOs, namely Christian AID and Oxfam in the conduct of 

flood and storm surge hazard mapping activities in small 

islands of Jomalig in Quezon province, Rapu-Rapu in 

Albay and Boac in Marinduque and Plan Philippines in the 

establishment of CBFEWS in pilot areas in Eastern Samar. 



· The PAGASA in coordination with the Office 

of Civil Defense organized dry runs/pilot testing 

on the operation of CBFEWS as well as flood 

drills in areas where the 1:10K flood hazard map 

has been prepared. In the dry run or flood drill, 

the evacuation protocols of the community are 

integrated into the operation of the CBFEWS 



using the derived flood hazard map. 



Please also refer to Key Result Area 2(d). 


Results 

From 26-31 October 2009, 2 representatives 

from Practical Action Nepal, an international NGO 

visited the areas where the community based 

flood early warning system such as: Quezon City, 

Bulacan and Olongapo City. The major purpose 

of the visit is to learn, gain experience and 

ideas from the successful model of community 

based early warning system in Philippines and 

to incorporate those learning during scale up of 

early warning system in Nepal. Practical Action 

Nepal is currently implementing a DIPECHO 

V project entitled SEWIN – Scaling up Early 

Warning Systems in Nepal. 



Nil. 




Typhoon-related Threats. (List progress on 




Plan goals) 


· Recently the 2 conventional radar system 

of PAGASA (Baler and Baguio Radars) was 

upgraded to Doppler capability of which all the 

radar images coming from these two (2) systems 

are being transfer remotely to the Weather and 

Flood Forecasting Center of PAGASA Central 

Office for analysis and serve as an special inputs 

in weather and flood forecasting warnings and 

advisories. 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


· In the later part of the 3 rd quarter, the Tropical 

Cyclone (TC) Module was installed to improve 

tropical cyclone forecasts. The software was 

developed by Australian expert from Bureau of 

Meteorology (BoM) which is capable of doing 

consensus forecasting to all the typhoon models 

over the northwest Pacific area. 

Figure 6.a.1 Output of the TC Module software 

showing the track of TS RAMIL 

(MIRINAE); color codes indicate the storm 

signals raised over a specific locality 

(red – signal # 3, Violet or purple - # 2 and 

yellow - # 1). 

· The detailed design for the acquisition of three 

(3) Doppler radars by JICA has been completed. 

Figure 6.a.2 Buildings where the 3 Doppler 

radars to be provided 

by the Japanese Grant will be housed. 

· For the other radars that are locally funded, 

the upgrade of the Baguio and Baler Doppler 

radars have been completed and are now on 

experimental modes while the construction of 

civil works for Tagaytay, Subic, Cebu, Tampacan 

and Hinatuan radars are on-going. 










Results 

Nil. 



· The Technical Cooperation Project (TCP) under 

JICA to improve the existing FFWS for monitored 

major reservoirs of Angat, Pantabangan, Binga/ 

Ambuklao and Magat commenced through a 

kick-off meeting in November 2009. 

· As result of the spillway operation of San 

Roque dam during the passage of Typhoon 

Parma in October 2009, Ad Hoc Technical 

Working Groups in the upper and lower Houses 

(Senate and Congress) were created to come 

up with recommendations in the revision of the 

flood operation protocol for San Roque dam. The 

series of meetings of both working groups were 

attended by representatives from concerned 

technical government agencies and politicians. 



International Collaboration. (List progress on 




Plan goals) 


Nil.

. Hydrological Achievements/Results 

Nil. 



Nil. 



Related training in meteorology: 

· 2 Personnel attended the Forty-first Session 

of the Typhoon Committee On 19 to 24 January 

in Chiang-Mai, Thailand by the Philippine 

Government and the typhoon committee 

Foundation, Inc. (TCFI) & the Philippine Science 

Journalists Association, Inc. (PSciJourn) 

· 1 personnel attended the Annual Meeting of the 

American Meteorological Society and the Forum 

of Meteorological Societies/11-15 January 2009/ 

Phoenix, Arizona, USA 

· 1 personnel attended the 31 st Meeting of 

the South East Asian nations (ASEAN) Sub- 

Committee in Meteorology & Geophysics on 08 

to 10 April in Thailand 

· 1 personnel attended the RA V Technical 

Conference on 20 to 24 April in Malaysia by 

World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 

· 1 personnel attended the 9 th Group on Earth 

Capacity Building Committee Meeting (GEO) on 

27 – 28 April in Athens, Greece by the European 


· 1 personnel attended the 2 nd Bilateral Working 

Group Meeting on 09 to 12 May in Korea by the 

Korea Met Administration 

· 1 personnel attended the 57 th Meeting of the 

ASEAN COST and other related meetings on 25 

to 27 May in Bali, Indonesia 

· 24 officials and personnel attended the 5-day 

factory visit on the EEC radar plant on 22 – 

26 June and13 to 17 July in Alabama, U. S. A. 

by the Enterprise Electronics Corporation & 

Construction, Inc. 

· 1 personnel attended the Ocean Observation & 

Hydrographer Survey on 06 to 25 July in Korea 

by KOICA 

· 1 personnel attended the 13 TH Session of the 

Intergovernmental Consultative Committee (ICC) 

on the Regional Space Applications Programme 

for Sustainable Development (RESAP)-cum 



Expert Group Meeting on 20 to 22 July in 

Bangkok, Thailand by UNESCAP 

· 1 personnel attended the Pre-meeting for the 

2 nd Joint Science & Technology Cooperation on 

31 Aug – 02 September in Taiwan by the National 

Science Council 

· 24 officials and personnel attended the TC 

Integrated Workshop in Cebu, Philippines on 15- 

18 September 2009 

· 1 personnel attended the ASEAN COST Sub- 

Committee Meeting on 01 to 02 November in 

Singapore 

· 1 personnel attended the International 

Symposium on Radar and Modeling Studies 

of the atmosphere on 10 to 13 November in 

Japan by the Research Institute for Sustainable 

Humanosphere (RISH) 

· 1 personnel attended the Regional Association 

V (RA V)Sub-Group on Global Telecommunication 

System-Information and Services System (GTS- 

ISS) on 02 to 05 December in Hawaii by WMO 

· 1 personnel attended the 5 th Meeting of the 

Global Earth Observation System of Systems 

(GEOSS) Asia Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI) 

International Coordination Group (ICP) on 15 to 

17 December in Thailand by the APN (the Asia- 

Pacific Network for Global Change Research 

· 1 personnel attended the Satellite data Training 

Course and Workshop on 17 to 18 December in 

Japan by the WMO 

· 8 personnel attended the Training on Doppler 

Radar Operation, Maintenance and Interpretation 

on 06 December 2009 to 04 January 2010 in 

Taiwan 

Related training in Hydrology: 

· 1 personnel attended the Wilton Pak Conference 

on Responding to Flooding – Improving the 

Preparation and Response/26-28 January 

2009/ Sussex, UK 

· 13 Hydrologists & 34 Telecom & technicians 

trained under Phase 1of the JICA Grant project 

Improvement of the FFWS in the Pampanga and 

Agno river basins by JICA Experts in January to 

March 2009. 

· 1 personnel attended the Training Course on 

Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) 

on 08 to 14 November in Daejun, Korea by KWater 

· 1 personnel attended the Regional Learning 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


Workshop on Early Warning Systems on 26 to 

30 July in Dhaka, Bangladesh by ADPC 

· 1 personnel attended the The Expert Group 

Meeting on Innovative Strategies towards Flood 

Resilient Cities in Asia-Pacific was organized 

by the United Nations Economic and Social 

Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP) at 

the United Nations Conference Centre, Bangkok, 

from 21 to 23 July 2009 

· 1 personnel attended the ICHARM Quick Report 

on Floods 2009/10-11 December2009/ Tsukuba, 

Japan 

· 1 personnel attended the 7 th Session of the 

Regional Association V (Southwest Pacific) 

Working Group on Hydrology, Regional Training 

Course on Low Flow Manual and the SEA- 

HYCOS Planning Meeting/ 14-18 December 

2009/ Bandung, Indonesia 

· 1 personnel attended the Small group meeting 

of the Working Group on Hydrology (WGH) of the 

Typhoon Committee (TC) in Macao, China – 16-17 

December 2009 

Related training in climate change: 

· 1 personnel attended the 3 rd GEOSS Asia 

Pacific Symposium and 4 th Meeting of the GEOSS 

Asia Water Cycle Initiative (AWCI) International 

Coordination Group (ICG) in 04 to 07 February 

(successively) both in Kyoto, Japan by the Asia 

Pacific Network for Global Change Research 

· 2 personnel attended the Capacity-building 

activities of the Tokyo Climate Center of the 

Japan Meteorological Agency on 09 to 27 

February in Tokyo, Japan by the Ministry of Land, 

Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism of Japan 

· 2 personnel attended the South East Asian 

Regional Workshop on Climate Change Scenario 

in 16 March, Hanoi, Vietnam by the Japan 

International Cooperation Agency (JICA) and the 

Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment 

of Vietnam 

· 4 personnel attended the Final workshop of the 

Australian Center for International Agricultural 

Research (ACIAR) on 15 to 17 May in Australia 

by the ACIAR project entitled “ Bridging the Gap 

Between Seasonal Climate Forecasts in the 

Philippines and Australia 

· 4 personnel attended the World Meteorological 

Organization (WMO) Workshop on the Content, 

Communication and Use of Weather and 

Climate Products and Services for Sustainable 

Agriculture on 18 to 20 May in Australia by the 

ACIAR Project 

· 2 personnel attended the High resolution 

climate modeling of climate change over the 

Indonesian Region workshop on 16 – 31 May in 

Australia by the Spanish Government 

· 2 personnel attended the One-week visit to 

the CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research 

(CMAR) Aspendale for the summary workshop 

on climate change on 25 to 31 May In Australia 

by the Spanish Government 

· 1 personnel attended the Capacity Development 

for Adaptation to Climate Change in Asia – 

Climate Change Analysis on 20 May to June 20 

in Japan by JICA 

· 2 personnel attended the Training Workshop 

on Climate Variability and Prediction for South 

Asia and Eastern Southeastern Africa On 22 

to 29 June in Hanoi, Vietnam by the University 

Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) 

· 1 personnel attended the Workshop on Climate 

Change & Disaster Risk Reduction on 01 to 15 

August in Nathiagali, Abbottabad, Pakistan by the 

ADPC 

· 1 personnel attended the Workshop on “High 

Resolution Climate Modeling On 10 to 14 August 

in Trieste, Italy by the International Centre for 

Theoretical Physics (ICTP) 

· 1 personnel attended the Training Workshop on 

Climate Applications in Association of Southeast 

Asian Nations (ASEAN) On 05 to 09 October in 

Malaysia by the Japan – ASEAN 

· 2 personnel attended the ASEAN Regional 

Workshop on Providing Regional Climates for 

Impacts Studies (PRECIS) On 12 to 15 October 

in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia by the British 

Government and Spanish Government 

· 1 personnel attended the International 

Workshop on “Futures of Low Carbon Society: 

Scenarios for Asia Pacific On 02 to 04 November 

in Phuket, Thailand by the Thai Government 

· 1 personnel attended the Inter-regional 

Workshop on Indices and Early Warning Systems 

for Drought On 08 to 11 December in Nebraska, 

USA by WMO 

· 1 personnel visited the Meteorological Research 

Institute (MRI) on 07 to 10 December by JICA 

· 1 personnel attended the Training Seminar on

Climate Analysis Using Reanalysis Data on 01 to 

04 December by JMA 

Related training in Disaster Risk Reduction 

· 1 official attended the First Session of the 

Committee on Disaster Risk Reduction on 25 to 

27 March in Thailand 

· 1 personnel attended the Global Disaster 

Alert and Coordination system (GDACS) Global 

Stakeholders Meeting on 28 – 29 April in 

Switzerland by the Emergency Relief Coordination 

Center 


Results 

· On 28 July 2008, a Vietnamese delegation 

headed by an official from the Ministry of Natural 

Resources and Environment (MONRE) and the 

Deputy Director of the Department of Meteorology 

in Vietnam visited PAGASA to discuss an MOU 

that would facilitate the: 

- Exchange of information on Sea level, Storm, 

and other weather-related natural disasters 

occurring in the South China Sea; 

- Research and application of forecast models on 

water circulation, oil slick and typhoon trajectory 

in the South China Sea; and 

- Training of personnel. 

· In October 2009, an MOU between PAGASA 

and JAMSTEC for the collaborative research on 

extreme rainfall events 



· The disaster brought about by the passage 

of TS Ketsana served as an opportunity for the 

national government as well as foreign donors 

to prioritize early warning activities as important 

component in total disaster risk management. In 

response to the requests from foreign donors, 

the PAGASA came up with a Master Plan for 

Flood Disaster Risk Mitigation for Metro Manila. 

Among the components prioritized is the project: 

Establishment of Early Warning and Response 

System for Disaster Mitigation in Metro Manila 



(Pasig-Marikina River Basin) by the KOICA. This 

project is being proposed as a collaborative 

undertaking between the three (3) Working 

Groups of the Typhoon Committee namely, WGM, 

WGH and WGDPP. 

· The Australian Agency for International 

Development (AusAID) through the UNDP has 

also came up with the project: Enhancing Metro 

Manila’s Capacities for Effective Disaster/Climate 

Change Risk Management towards Sustainable 

Development. The project objectives are: to 

assess the risks and vulnerabilities faced by 

Metro Manila to multi-hazards, including those 

brought on by climate change; initiate/implement 

mitigating measures such as community-based 

early warning systems (CBEWS) and integrated 

contingency planning; improve the capacities 

of local governments and critical partners (e.g. 

academe) to mainstream disaster/climate risk 

management into their comprehensive land use 

and local development plans, programming & 

regulatory processes; improve the capacities of the 

concerned risk management agencies to provide 

timely and accurate forecasts and advisories 

for timely and effective decision making by local 

authorities and other stakeholders; and raise the 

general level of awareness and competencies of 

vulnerable communities to deal with disaster and 

climate change risks. 

g. Resource Mobilization Activities 

Nil. 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 





Mr. Robert S. Sawi: 

Email: r_sawi@hotmail.com 

Facsimile: 632 - 9271335Telephone:632 - 

9271541 


Dr. Susan R. Espinueva: 

Email susan.espinueva@pagasa.dost.gov.ph 

shenry112293@yahoo.com 

Facsimile: 632 - 9287731 

Telephone:632 - 9294065 


Preparedness 

Ms. Lennie D. Alegre: 

Email: lenie017522@yahoo.com 

Facsimile: 632-9125979 

Telephone:632-9115062 


Dr. Carina G. Lao: 

Email:carinalaoph@yahoo.com 

Facsimile: 632-4342675 



Dr. Cynthia Celebre: 

Email: cynthia_celebre@yahoo.com 

Facsimile: 632-9294570 


Note: Dr. Malano is on oficial study leave for one 

(1) year. 

REPUBLIC OF KOREA 





progress on the 2009 Typhoon Committee 



- N.A. 


Urban Flood Disaster Management Research 

As a consequence of increased urbanization, 

industrialization and population in urban areas, 

it has become even more important to establish 

relevant policies and response strategies 

to manage risks and impacts caused by 

floods in a more flexible and efficient manner. 

Environmental and economic adaptation to urban 

flood risks is particularly necessary, given the 

increased frequency and intensity of waterrelated 

disasters such as typhoons associated 

with climate change. 

As in other countries, flood damage has shown 

a rapid increase in urban areas in recent years. 

An example is Typhoon Nari in 2007, which 

inflicted damage on Jeju Island with flooding and 

landslides brought about by heavy rainfall. The 

damage and loss was exacerbated even further 

due to poorly paved roads and shallow river 

banks. 

Korea’s recovery budget amounted to 1.3 billion 

USD every year in the last decade, with as much 

as 2.7 billion USD in 2005. In Korea, comparing 

between the property loss cost and rehabilitation 

budget, the amount of rehabilitation budget is 1.6 

times more than the property loss cost for the 

last 10 years (1996 to 2005). Approximately 50% 

of the loss was due to urban flooding.

s 

Fig. 9. Flood damage in urban areas 

In response, the ‘Urban Flood Disaster 

Management Research Center’ was established 

under the Ministry of Land, Transport and 

Maritimes Affairs (MLTM). The center initiated 

a project entitled ‘Urban Flood Disaster 

Management Research’ in 2003.The vision and 

goals of this project, which ended in 2008, are 

as follows: 

- Analysis of urban flood disasters and 

development of design techniques; 

- Development of techniques for a disaster 

prevention system that includes flood forecasting 

and early warning for urban rivers; 

- Development of design techniques for defensive 

Fig. 10. Project structure 



facilities and infrastructures against urban floods; 

- Establishment of comprehensive flood control 

plans and strategies in urban areas with 

advanced techniques for practical management 

and operation. 

Project efforts led to the development of 

urban flood disaster management techniques 

and the construction of disaster prevention 

systems in urban areas. Another outcome was 

the implementation of the ‘Flood-free City’ 

project, which aims to strengthen capacity for 

responding to flood risks and improve resilience 

to water-related urban disasters. 

As shown in Fig. 10, the project was decomposed 

into four components, and advanced urban flood 

adaptation techniques were developed as subtasks. 

The results included the following: - 

Regional rainfall frequency analysis program 

(Fig. 11); 

· Estimation of rainfall probability using regional 

frequency analysis; 

· Database utilization for water infrastructure 

design and planning; 

· Establishment of proper flood forecasting and 

warning systems using regional frequency 

analysis for urban watersheds. 

2009 

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- Urban runoff and quality analysis model (Fig. 

12) 

· Analysis of pollutant conduction with urban 

surface runoff, channel and sewer runoff, and 

initial overflow; 

· Practical model for estimating urban and rural 

flood discharge and designing pipe networks. 

- Two-dimensional model for computing 

vegetative channel in urban rivers (Fig. 13) 

· Two-dimensional numerical model for computing 

vegetated open channel flow characteristics; 

· Feature for estimating longitudinal and lateral 

flow characteristics at vegetated open channels; 

· Feature for assessing water facilities with 

vegetation effects in flood plain planning and 

utilization. 

- Operation of rainfall pumping station program 

(Fig. 14) 

· Prediction of variation in the real-time internal 

drainage stage and detention basin stage using 

rainfall and geographic parameters; 

· Operating model(automatic) for the rainfall 

pumping station; 

· Enables selection of pump operation rules 

according to the detention basin area, pump 

capacity, watershed area, basin slope, etc. 

- Short-time rainfall prediction model with 

weather radar (Fig. 15) 

· Predicts short-time rainfall variation by 

computing cloud migration direction and velocity; 

· Complements short-time rainfall prediction with 

numerical weather prediction; 

· Uses input data for rainfall runoff analysis. 

- Urban basin rainfall forecasting model (Fig. 15) 

· Rainfall forecast at 30-minute intervals with 

up to a 4-hour lead time using weather radar 

reflectance and radar precipitation; 

· Detects local heavy rain and migration of rainfall 

that is hard to observe by point rainfall station, 

using high-resolution weather radar data and 

space-time analysis capacity; 

· Urban flood forecasting and warning and basic 

rainfall analysis data using flood discharge 

estimation. 

Fig. 11. Regional Rainfall Frequency Analysis 

Fig. 12. Urban runoff and quality analysis

Fig. 13. Establishment of user-tailored vegetated areas 

Fig. 14. Real-time pumping station control graph 

Although the ‘Urban Flood Disaster Management 

Research’ already brought about the development 

of various techniques and strategies during the 

5 years (2003-2008) of its implementation, the 

project is still relevant. Efforts are under way to 

implement the outcomes developed as part of 

this project for practical use. The outcomes are 

used to create a system for hydrological and 

hydraulic analysis of urban flooding and urban 

flood forecasting that takes into account structural 

and nonstructural measures. The project is 

expected to help establish comprehensive flood 

control measures for urban river basins and an 



Fig. 15. Urban basin rainfall forecasting model (left: Precipitation calculation with radar; 

right: Application to urban areas) 

urban flood defense system, which in turn will 

help reduce casualties and economic loss, and 

eventually establish the ‘Flood-free City’ project 

in each Member country in the region 

. 

Four Major Rivers Restoration Project 

The ‘Four Major Rivers Restoration Project’ is 

currently one of the Korean government’s key 

agenda items. The fundamental objective of the 

project is to prepare more efficient measures to 

respond to floods and droughts caused by climate 

change. The project will help produce more 

secure river spaces with diverse usages through 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


riverbank reinforcement, riverside reservoir 

redevelopment and ecosystem restoration. 

The need for fundamental flood control measures 

is increasingly felt in Korea as a result of repeated 

and frequent flood damage. The average yearly 

precipitation in Korea is 1,245mm, with two thirds 

falling in the summer. Therefore, preparations 

against summertime heavy rainfall, floods and 

typhoons are very important. Rivers in Korea 

are generally short and highly sloped, exhibiting 

large fluctuations in river discharge. As a result, 

the possibility of floods is significantly high in 

Korea. Yearly flood damage is 2.3 billion USD, 

and rehabilitations cost 3.5 billion USD. 

Korea government is increasing investment 

for projects, research, infrastructure and 

technologies to strengthen flood control and 

Fig. 16. Illustration of waterfront improvement 

plans with a view to maximizing investment 

efficiency through prioritizing. It has also been 

developing flood control measures for each river 

basin and devising ways to implement these 

measures. The ‘Four Major Rivers Restoration 

Project’ bears a close relation to these policies 

and strategies. Ultimately, the project aims to 

prepare rivers so that they may withstand floods 

and water-related disasters for 200 years. 

Existing levees will be fortified and mega-scale 

levees will be constructed as safeguards against 

flooding. Furthermore, small- and mid-sized 

dams and retention areas will be established to 

enhance flood control within river basins, and 

excessive deposits will be dredged to identify 

possible floodways. 

Upon completion of this project, damage (2.7 

trillion KRW per year) and restoration costs (4.2 

trillion KRW per year) due to flooding are expected 

to decline, thanks to the reinforced riverbanks, 

small- and medium-sized dams, and flood control 

areas. The following are the master plans for 

each of the four major rivers—Han River, Geum 

River, Nakdong River, and Yeongsan River—as 

regards flood control and water-related disaster 

prevention: 

- Han River 

· Lower flood level (0.4~3.9m) by dredging 

deposits; 

· Increase flood control capacity by creating 

riverside flood control spaces and reservoirs; 

· Reinforce old riverbanks to improve flood control 

safety (131km). 

- Geum River 

· Flood countermeasures: Increase flood control 

capacity to 100 million m3 

- Nakdong River 

· Establish 8 levees to strengthen water storage 

capacity; 

· Improve locks to lower water level. 

- Yeongsan River 

· Flood countermeasures: Increase flood control 

capacity to 120 million m3 

In addition to providing enhanced flood control 

capacity, the project is expected to enable 

storage of abundant water resources, to create 

eco-friendly spaces for better lives, to restore 

the ecosystem and environment in rivers 

and to develop rural communities and areas. 

The project, which was launched this year, is 

scheduled for completion in early 2012 (Sources: 

www.4rivers.go.kr; www.mltm.go.kr).

Fig. 17. Map of the Four Rivers Project 

Fig. 18. Project work on the Nakdong River (Before and After) 



Development of interactive methodology for 

CCTV operation 

Korea’s National Emergency Management Agency 

(NEMA) established interactive methodology 



to integrate disaster-related information such 

as rainfall, water surface elevation, discharge, 

snow depth, and CCTV data collected by various 

related organizations and local governments 

of cities and districts. CCTVs are an especially 

important tool given their locations in key areas, 

although most of their application so far has 

been in law enforcement rather than disaster 

management. NEMA has developed an integrated 

operation system to connect all disaster-related 

information and represent them on GIS maps for 

real-time linking of monitoring meteorological 

and hydrological data, including CCTV images. 

The system is equipped with an advanced 

monitoring function, facilitated by color- and 

shape-coding. These integrated measurements 

on GIS maps will significantly contribute to 

decision-making for managing extreme events 

on a local scale. 

Fig.19. Integrated Measurement Information System 

- Information from local measuring station 15 

· Information from the local measuring stations 

such as water surface elevation, discharge, 

rainfall, snow depth, and CCTV data; 

· Natural disaster information such as CCTV 

images of inundation, landslides, flooding, 

debris flow, and damage collected by the local 

measuring stations; 

· Natural disaster information such as CCTV 

images of fire, wild fires, collapses, and explosions 

from the local measuring stations; 

· Update of information on automatic local 

measuring stations through continuous video 

capture. 

- Information from related organizations 

· Water surface elevation, rainfall, snow depth, 

and CCTV data collected by KWater (Korea Water 

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Resources Corporation) measuring stations; 

· AWS information and 3-hour weather information 

from KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration) 

- GIS-based integrated measurement information 

system 

· CCTVs are classified according to their use and 

grouped by region or specific disasters on GIS 

maps; 

· Information including CCTV images are displayed 

according to specific parameters—view of the 

river, typhoon trajectory, selected region(s), etc.; 

· CCTV images are displayed with a warning 

when disasters occur. 

The National Institute for Disaster Prevention 

(NIDP) developed an automatic damage detecting 

system for disaster management, which detects 

damage by comparing before and after images 

of a given site and issues warnings to decisionmakers. 

For example, color changes in a specific 

area may indicate a wild fire, while geological 

information helps identify landslides, and water 

surface elevation over the warning line indicates 

flooding. The system may also help decisionmaking 

for managing extreme events on a local 

scale. 

Fig. 20. Related organizations information system 

Development of decision-making system for 

disaster response or management 

NEMA established a decision-making system 

to effectively respond to expected extreme 

events based on analyzed results from 

monitoring, modeling, and statistical analysis 

of meteorological elements and rainfall runoff. 

The system facilitates accurate and fast analysis 

by flagging areas vulnerable to flooding and 

landslides, displaying all the relevant information 

on GIS maps for decision-makers. The system 

is equipped with the following decision-making 

16 

support functions using GIS-based observational 

information: 

- Link of the observational information 

· The system links water surface elevation, 

rainfall, snow depth, and CCTV data collected by 

related organizations. 

- Decision-making support 

· Function for analyzing disaster-related 

information with information on consequences 

and damage; 

· Establishment of warning and notification 

system to communicate disaster information 

and development of countermeasures based on 

collected information; 

· Reference function for watershed or 

administrative information; 

· Function for decision-making to reduce 

inundation damage with inundation maps 

developed using inundation data from 1995 to 

2007; 

· Distributed rainfall runoff model to represent 

expected inundation areas using expected 

rainfall data. 

Fig. 21. Decision-making system main page 

Fig.22. MAPLE data analysis system

Development of System for Disaster Situation 

Analysis and Decision Making 

The National Institute for Disaster Prevention 

(NIDP) developed a system called System for 

Disaster Situation Analysis and Decision Making 

for rapid disaster response such as evacuation 

and traffic cutoff. The system seeks to improve 

upon the existing disaster management system 

using general analysis of vulnerable zones 

based on historic damage information. This 

development project consists of the following key 

features: 

- Estimate typhoon trajectories using reports 

from the Korea Meteorological Administration 

(KMA), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center 

(JTWC), the Regional Specialized 

Meteorological Center (RSMC), and the Hong 

Kong Observatory (HKO), as well as vulnerability 

analysis based on historic damage information, 

soil moisture content, shape of the basin, and 



Fig. 23. Disaster Information Sharing System 

Fig. 24. Disaster Monitoring System 

degree of soil saturation; 

- Establish systems for monitoring water levels 

of the major rivers, collecting information on tide 

levels, dam management, river management, and 

digital forecasting; 

- Support monitoring-based decision-making for 

disaster management in vulnerable zones. 

The system will mainly concentrate on the 

following: 

- Preliminary characteristic analysis of 

administrative districts divided by GIS information 

(digital map, land cover map, land use map, soil 

type map) and meteorological information; 

- Vulnerability analysis by linking meteorological 

information and hydrological information (runoff 

coefficient, running water direction, soil moisture 

content); 

- Preliminary forecasting and warning on 

vulnerable zones to support disaster management 

decisions. 

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Fig. 25. Disaster Risk Analysis System 


Results 

Policy & Research for Global Disaster 

Management (PR4GDM) 

The National Emergency Management Agency 

(NEMA) organized the Policy & Research for 

Global Disaster Management (PR4GDM) so as 

to create a new environment for research and 

development activities that seek to address 

climate change and reinforce future disaster 

management capabilities. Fifty-two experts from 

universities, government and public research 

institutes in the U.S.A, Japan, Canada, China, 

Norway, the UN and Korea attended PR4GDM in 

Seoul from 11 to 13 November. 

The keynote speeches covered areas such as 

major R&D policies, future disaster prospects 

and international cooperation. Six additional 

presentations were given on i) Green Growth and 

climate change, ii) firefighting and emergency 

rescue, iii) education and training, iv) firefighting 

and natural disaster prevention technologies, 

v) firefighting and public safety and vi) IT and 

spatial information. The meeting also consisted 

of in-depth discussion on the science of 

disaster management and explored development 

schemes, helping worldwide promotion of R&D 

for disaster prevention, technological cooperation, 

and the basis of a national disaster prevention 

network to cope with climate issues. 

Fig. 26. Policy & Research for Global Disaster 

Management 

d. Regional Cooperation Achievements/Results 

- N.A. 



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Development of Flood Control Measure 

Assessment System 

The frequency and intensity typhoons and 

floods in the region, including Southeast Asia, 

has recently increased due to accelerating 

urbanization, industrial activity, highly dense 

land use, heavy construction of infrastructure, 

and especially, climate change impact. This 

threat extends not only to human lives but is 

also causing significant economic loss, which 

is gradually increasing. In view of such a 

threat, it is necessary to develop and secure 

more advanced and standardized methods to 

assess the efficiency of flood control plans, and 



Fig. 27. Annual task targets (2008-2012) 

to establish a comprehensive and integrated 

system to identify optimal flood control measures 

by eliminating uncertainties of socio-economic 

impacts. Economic damage attributable to floods 

in Korea is steadily increasing, with an increase 

of close to 11 times in three decades. Even more 

alarming is the fact that this trend is also seen 

around the world. 

A project entitled ‘Flood Control Measure 

Assessment System’ was launched in 2008 

under the leadership of Korea’s Ministry of Land, 

Transport and Maritime Affairs (MLTM). This 

long-term project will be completed in 2012 

with the yearly targets shown in Fig. 27. There 

is now clear recognition of the importance of 

basin-unit flood control measures. To reduce loss 

and damage caused by floods, it is necessary 

to develop basin-unit flood control measures, 

instead of mere 1-dimensional river-unit flood 

measures for long-term general use. Basin-unit 

flood control measures are nonetheless free 

from weaknesses, some of which include the 

following: 

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- Deduction and selection of flood control 

measures that rely on the experience of experts; 

- Absence of a unified procedure or system; 

- Estimation of the economical efficiency of flood 

control measures based solely on structural 

damage. 

Moreover, criteria for selecting certain flood 

control measures over others are unclear, 

giving rise to considerable vagueness and 

confusion. Although basin-unit flood control has 

been attracting more attention since the launch 

of the integrated basin flood control project, 

an integrated process or system is yet to be 

developed for assessing and preparing basinunit 

flood control plans. 

The eventual objective of this research is 

to establish a standardized and integrated 

assessment system for flood control measures, 

- Construction of a reasonable and integrated flood control measure assessment system; 

- Utilization as a future pre-assessment system; 

- Enhancement of international cooperation among Members in the region. 

so that these measures can ultimately find 

practical use in Member countries of the TC 

community to reduce socio-economic damage 

caused by typhoons and floods in the region. 

The assessment system may make it possible 

to implement pre-assessment steps to select 

economically optimal flood control measures, 

which would then enable Member countries to 

develop their own capacity against floods while 

also strengthening international cooperation 

among Members. 

- Proposal of a scheme for an integrated 

assessment system of flood control measures; 

- Establishment of a scheme to select economically 

optimal flood control measures; 

- Construction of a viable assessment system for 

Typhoon Committee Members. 

Since its inception, the project has surveyed 

and analyzed the current status of flood control 

measures in Korea and Member countries 

including several developed countries. To 

understand the weaknesses of each existing 

assessment system or framework, information 

was collected on flood response measures 

from major related organizations. It was also 

necessary to analyze each flood control 

measure assessment system implemented by 

developed countries and Members. Analysis 

was conducted of each Member’s needs and 

expectations regarding such an assessment 

system, as well as technical information and data 

required to build such a system to help design 

a preliminary assessment system. This was 

followed by constructing a database to manage 

inputs/outputs of each assessment factor. Finally, 

a basic design for the assessment system was 

developed upon which to devise a master plan 

for a flood control measure assessment system 

that will eventually satisfy the identified goals and 

requirements. 

As mentioned above and shown in Fig. 28, 

the goal of this project is not only to evaluate 

structural measures, but also to propose a 

process and methodology to properly determine 

flood discharge in basins and river channels 

and non-structural measures such as gradation 

of protection levels according to flood control 

regions and allocation of flood discharge. 

Research and analysis are currently under way on 

hydrological results and socio-economic impacts 

caused by each existing flood measure. HAZUS- 

MH, a standardized system for quantified analysis 

and data developed by the US FEMA, serves as 

a model of the prospective assessment system 

and key reference for this project. HAZUS-MH 

enables integrated assessment of flood damage 

and unifies operational procedures and systems. 

At the same time, HAZUS-MH is equipped 

with a general-purpose database structure. By 

implementing an analysis of each module, the 

assessment system that this project seeks to 

realize is being refined. 

The project will be completed in 2012 with an 

integrated and comprehensive flood control 

measure assessment system that will help 

minimize socio-economic damage caused by 

floods. Ultimately, the final assessment system

will be used to establish more efficient flood 

control measures, and at an international level, 

to strengthen technical and information-oriented 

cooperation among Members in the region. 

Fig. 28. Preliminary design of measure 

classification system 



Foundation of promotion corps to reinforce 

vulnerable zones 

Korea’s National Emergency Management 

Agency (NEMA) founded a promotion corps on 

28 October 2009 to reinforce vulnerable zones 

and energize the regional economies of these 

zones. Government support will include a budget 

of 888 million USD for Year 2010 to strengthen 

disaster prevention in disaster-prone regions, 

rural streams, and construction sites. The 

promotion corps composed a technical support 

team consisting of government officers of NIDP 

and university researchers to help minimize 

budget waste and prepare countermeasures for 

vulnerable zones. 

If the budget for disaster prevention projects 

is invested appropriately according to plan, 

improvement projects for 791 disaster-vulnerable 

zones will be completed, bringing capacity up 

to date by 5 years. Improvement projects will 

also be implemented for 14 disaster prevention 

facilities including the Nohak drain pump in 

Sokcho, Gangwon-do, showing an upgrading for 

3 years compared to its pre-project status. 


Results 

- N.A. 




- N.A. 



- N.A. 



Betterment ofQuality of life. (List progress on 




goals) 


- N.A. 


- N.A. 



- N.A. 


Results 

- N.A. 


- N.A. 



- N.A. 







goals) 


- N.A. 


- N.A. 

2009 

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c. Disaster Prevention 

and Preparedness 


Enhanced WEB GIS 

Based Typhoon 

Committee Disaster 

Information System 

The National Institute 

for Disaster Prevention 

(NIDP) officially launched 

the WEB GIS Based 

Typhoon Committee 

Disaster Management 

System (WGTCDIS), 

which enables sharing 

of Typhoon Committee 

Members’ disaster 

information including 

typhoon damage, 

disaster management 

system, and early 

warning system. The system provides a variety of 

additional services including tracking of similar 

typhoons, retrieval of damage information on 

multiple disasters, meteorological information, 

and regional weather risk analysis. 

Fig. 29. Main features of WEB GIS based TCDIS 

NIDP-led efforts to promote the WEB GIS 

based TCDIS (WGTCDIS) to TC Members will 

continue in 2010. TC Members such as the 

Philippines, Lao PDR and Thailand are to provide 

GIS, meteorological and disaster information 

for WGTCDIS by end of 2009 and NIDP will 

provide expert missions to set up WGTCDIS 

for TC Members and improve WGTCDIS usage. 

NEMA-led efforts will also continue in 2010 to 

enhance WGTCDIS and establish a methodology 

to assess socio-economic impacts of disasters. 

TC Members such as the Philippines, Lao PDR, 

Malaysia, Hong Kong, Macao, Cambodia, the USA, 

Viet Nam, the Republic of Korea, and Thailand 

will submit disaster information on one to two 

cases of typhoon damage in their countries. 

NIDP will compile this information into a report 

27 

for presentation at the 5th WGDPP meeting 

in Seoul, Korea. 2010 will furthermore see the 

continued review of the WGTCDIS progress and 

activities to enhance TC’s effectiveness and 

efficiency in meeting its mandate as stated in the 

Statute of the Typhoon Committee. WGDPP will 

participate in a focused, integrated WGM, WGH, 

WGDPP, TRCG, and AWG Workshop with specific 

deliverables defined, in addition to evaluating the 

progress of the WGTCDIS project and future 

WGDPP activities. 

To ensure continued relevance of the WGTCDIS 

project, it is necessary to validate Viet Nam’s 

WGTCDIS and to secure typhoon and damagerelated 

data from new Members. Viet Nam will 

identify joint activities and inform Members for 

validation of its WGTCDIS. Thailand, Lao PDR

(5 years), the Philippines, and Hong Kong (5 

years) will prepare data for developing their 

own WGTCDIS. Once WGTCDIS for these four 

Members has been constructed, expert missions 

to these members will be conducted to provide 

information on the system and its application. 

These expert teams, which will be organized at 

the TC Sessions, will be implemented once the 

Member completes installation of its WGTCDIS. 

In 2010, WGTCDIS will see improved user 

convenience and accessibility through integration 

of the two above-mentioned services and a 

wealth of contents for Members. WGTCDIS will 

be applied to three additional members during 

this year—Lao PDR, Thailand, and the Philippines. 


Results 

Expert missions 

In 2005, NEMA’s National Institute for Disaster 

Prevention (NIDP) started developing TCDIS, the 

first project of TC’s Working Group on Disaster 

Prevention and Preparedness (WGDPP). The 

first version of TCDIS was made available to the 

public in 2006, with a revised version launched 

in 2007. TCDIS is a system for sharing typhoon 

information of TC Members, including their 

disaster management system, early warning 

system, disaster statistics, disaster reports, 

and WGDPP activities. Since active assistance 

from TC Members is vital to the successful 

completion of the project, expert missions 

were provided to encourage voluntary support 

from Members. The first expert mission was 

dispatched to four members—Lao PDR, Viet 

Nam, Thailand, and the Philippines on 11-20 May 

2008. The executive secretary and the chairman 

of WGDPP participated in the first expert mission, 

whose smooth progress was facilitated by active 

assistance from the four Members. 

The 2nd expert mission was implemented to 

introduce the new system and provide instructions 

on usage and data input into WGTCDIS. The 

expert mission to Viet Nam, decided at the 41st 

TC Session in Chiang Mai, assisted Members 

with data collection and promoted TCDIS by 

demonstrating how TCDIS can help Members 

prepare timely and efficient response to typhoons 

and related disasters. TCDIS can also be used as 

a platform for information exchange to reduce 



damage from typhoon-related disasters, and as 

a source of information on essential typhoonrelated 

disasters for decision-makers. 

NIDP, a member of the Typhoon Committee 

Working Group for Disaster Prevention and 

Preparedness (TCWGDPP), developed the WEB- 

GIS based TCDIS as the second project for 

the Working Group. The new WEB-GIS based 

TCDIS saw significant aesthetic improvements, 

adopting the style of the WMO website. Features 

for estimating similar typhoon trajectories and 

typhoon damage were also upgraded with Member 

data. The 2008 expert mission contributed data 

for TCDIS such as GIS, weather station data, and 

typhoon-related damage. The WEB-GIS based 

TCDIS for Viet Nam was developed based on the 

information collected from Viet Nam. 

The main objectives of the expert missions are 

to: i) promote the usage and benefits of the 

WEB-GIS based TCDIS to the governmental 

agencies of Viet Nam; ii) identify needs and 

gaps of participating Members in relation to the 

implementation of the WEB GIS Based TCDIS 

as an early warning system and acquisition of 

the necessary information for the WEB GIS 

Based TCDIS, and; iii) explore whether there is 

a need for public outreach initatives in relation 

to EWS, disaster prevention and preparedness in 

participating Members. 

- Expert mission plan 

· Dates: 2 March (Mon) – 7 March (Sat) 

· Participating Member(s): Viet Nam 0 

· Expert team: Dr. Yi (Chair of WGDPP), Dr. Tae 

Sung Cheong (NIDP), Dr. Eun-Mi Chang (KSIC) 


- N.A. 



- N.A. 

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- Program 

Country Date Contents Presenters 

Ha 

Noi, 

Viet Nam 

Da 

Nang, 

Viet 

Nam 

Da 

Nang, 

Viet 

Nam 

Da 

Nang, 

Viet 

Nam 

- Schedule 

Hochi 

Minh, 

Viet 

Nam 

2 Mar. (Mon) 

3 Mar. (Tue) 

4 Mar. (Wed) 

5 Mar. (Thu) 

6 Mar. (Fri) 

· Flight to Hanoi from Incheon · 15:00-15:30 Briefing on ex- 

Chair (Dr. Yi) 

pert mission · 15:30-16:20 Briefing on WEB-GIS based TCDIS 

Dr. Chang 

· 16:30-19:00 Demonstration and discussion 

Dr. Cheong 

· Flight to Da Nang from Hanoi · 14:00-14:30 Opening ceremony 

· 14:30-15:30 Briefing on expert mission · 16:00-18:00 

Briefing on WEB-GIS based TCDIS 

Host 


Dr. Chang 

· 09:00-10:00 Briefing and discussion of disaster maps · 11:00- Dr. Cheong 

18:00 Demonstration and discussion (TCDIS, dMap) All 

· 09:00-10:30 Decision support system for inundation damage 

reduction · 10:30-12:00 Disaster management system of Viet 

Nam · Flight to Ho Chi Min from Da Nang 

Dr. Cheong 

Nguyen Viet Tien 

Host 

· 09:00-09:30 Opening ceremony · 09:30-10:00 Briefing on ex- 


pert mission · 10:20-12:00 Briefing on WEB-GIS based TCDIS 

Dr. Chang 

· 14:00-15:40 Briefing and discussion of disaster maps · 16:00- 

Dr. Cheong 

18:00 Demonstration and discussion (TCDIS, dMap) 

All 

Hochi Date 

Minh, 

2 Viet Mar. 

(Mon) Nam 

From 

Incheon 7 Mar. (Sat) 

To Details Person in Charge 

· 09:00-12:00 Demonstration and discussion (TCDIS, dMap) · All 

Ha Noi 

Flight to Incheon 

KE5683, 

from Hanoi 

Dr. Yi, Dr. Chang, 

Departure: 10:15; Arrival: 13:15 

Dr. Cheong 

3 Mar. Ha Noi Da Nang VN0315, 


(Tue) 


Dr. Cheong 

5 Mar. Da Nang Hochi Minh KE5683, 


(Thu) 


Dr. Cheong 

7 Mar. 

(Sat) 

Hochi Minh Incheon KE0682, 



Dr. Cheong 

Fig. 30. Expert mission in Ha Noi

Fig. 31. Expert Mission in Da Nang 

Fig. 32. Expert mission in Ho Chi Minh 








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- N.A. 

g. Research, Training, and Other Achievements/ 

Results 

Opening of the UNISDR Education and Training 

Institute, UNISDR Northeast Asia Office for 

Urban Risk Reduction 

The government of the Republic of Korea is 

establishing strategies and plans for climate 

change response viewing the next 2-3 years as 

the crucial and defining moment. After signing 



an MOU with the United Nations, NEMA opened 

the Office for Urban Risk Reduction and the 

ISDR Education and Training Institute on 11 

August 2009. The ISDR Education and Training 

Institute for Urban Risk Reduction is the first 

United Nations educational and research facility 

for professional urban planners, city managers 

and officials of local authorities in the field of 

disaster risk reduction. It will cultivate, establish, 

and vitalize networks of Disaster Risk Reduction 

specialists through extensive education and 

training of disaster-related government officials 

and NGO officers worldwide. It will also help 

science and technology sharing for disaster risk 

reduction and stimulate the exchange of disasterrelated 

information and data. Simultaneously, it 

is expected to help propel Korea’s high-tech IT 

DRR technologies and Green Growth industry 

onto the international stage. 

With official operations scheduled to start in 2010, 

NIDP organized two pilot training programs in 

September and November based on survey 

of trainee demands from various countries. 

NIDP plans to operate the Institute like no other 

existing institutes by introducing a new form of 

special support educational program to maximize 

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the practical value of all training offered at the 

institute. The program was developed to provide 

close-proximity training on Korea’s policies in the 

area of disaster prevention and mitigation as well 

as situation management by showcasing model 

policies, technologies, and systems. The main 

topics included the following: Establishment of 

DRR planning for urban areas; Regional safety 

diagnosis systems; Comprehensive Meteohydrological 

disaster reduction plans; Disaster 

insurance programs; Region autonomous risk 

reduction; Situation analysis/decision systems; 

and Early warning systems. 

Disaster management officials from 10 Members 

of the Association of South East Asian Nations 

(ASEAN) and 8 Members of the South Asian 

Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) 

participated in the 1st pilot training. Disaster 

management officials from Northeast Asia and 

the Middle East participated in the 2nd pilot 

raining. Guided by the Hyogo Framework for 

Action (HFA), the UNISDR Office will provide 

technical assistance to the ISDR Education and 

Training Institute for Urban Risk Reduction. The 

ISDR Education and Training Institute will assist 

in providing good international practices in the 

forecast of and response to common disasters 

such as typhoons, Asian Dust, earthquakes, 

and droughts, cooperation in and sharing of 

technologies for forecast and observation for risk 

reduction, and support of DRR programs. 

Fig. 33. Opening ceremony of the UNISDR Education and Training Institute, 

UNISDR Northeast Asia Office for Urban Risk Reduction 

Disaster Management Education and Training 

Programs 

NEMA’s NIDP invites high-ranking officials 

from Bangladesh to its disaster management 

education training program. NEMA and the 

Korea International Cooperation Agency 

(KOICA) organize the education program, where 

participants can benefit from Korea’s experience 

in national disaster control by studying Korea’s 

national disaster information system and 

prediction and prevention system. 

The ten Bangladeshi delegates will also be 

exposed to traditional Korean culture during 

the three-week program. Bangladesh, which 

sustains tremendous damage from floods every 

year, decided to dispatch ten high-ranking 

public officers in charge of the country’s disaster 

management overseas to gain insights from 

industrialized countries in advancing the country’s 

disaster control system. NIDP also provided 

a disaster management education program 

to government officials from Paraguay in May 

2008. It plans to further expand cooperation with 

other countries by offering disaster management 

education to public officers from ten countries, 

including China, Nicaragua and Indonesia, in the 

second half of this year. 


- N.A. 



- N.A. 








goals) 


Update of Operational Tropical Cyclone 

Analysis System 

KMA has been operating a typhoon analysis 

system based on MTSAT-1R satellite data since 

2005. This typhoon analysis system utilizes the

Advanced Objective Dvorak Technique (AODT), 

which is based on satellite observations (Dvorak 

Technique) from SSEC/UW-Madison (Space 

Science Engineering Center/University of 

Wisconsin-Madison). KMA’s typhoon analysis 

system has been in operation using AODT and 

producing statistical results. However, AODT is 

difficult to directly apply to the Northwest Pacific 

region, as it was initially developed mainly for 

hurricanes in the Atlantic. 

KMA developed a user-friendly web-based 

SATellite Image analysis System (SATIS) in 

2006, recently adding new functions that make 

it possible to search and download past typhoon 

analysis data from the database. SATIS is easier 

to use for analyzing tropical cyclones, especially 

for detecting similarities in the database. Once 

a typhoon name and its year are chosen, the 

search results can be saved in the user directory 

as text files. Fig. 34 illustrates a full search list 

of similar tropical cyclones from SATIS, which 

includes eye position, intensity (CI index), eye 

temperature, scene type, and radius maximum 

wind (RMW) along with image data. 

Fig. 34. Full search results of past data on tropical cyclones from SATIS 

Expansion and Improvement of KMA’s Upperair 

Observation Network 

Since 2003, KMA has been developing the KMA 

wind profiler network (KWPN), which comprises 

ten wind profilers, to improve the temporal and 

spatial resolution of its upper-air observation 

network. Beginning with Munsan and Gangneung 

in 2003, wind profilers were installed in Gunsan 

in 2004 and Masan in 2005. In 2007, five 

additional wind profilers were installed in Uljin, 



Chupungnyeong, Wonju, Cheolwon, and the Base 

Station of Oceanic-Meteorological Observation 

75km off the west coast of Korea, thus completing 

the KWPN. 

KMA currently operates ten wind profilers 

including one installed in Haenam by its research 

arm NIMR (National Institute of Meteorological 

Research). The horizontal resolution of the 

upper-air observation network in Korea has 

dramatically improved as a result, from 128 km in 

2002 to 74 km in 2007. 

Wind data up to 5 km are collected every 10 

minutes through the KWPN and are subsequently 

assimilated in the operational regional numerical 

model following an automated quality control 

process. These data help improve the accuracy 

of heavy rain, heavy snow and typhoon track 

predictions. Nine microwave radiometers were 

also installed at the wind profiler sites in 2009 

to collect information on a variety of upper-air 

elements such as wind, temperature, humidity, 

and liquid water content. KMA plans to further 

integrate its upper-air observation network to 

include a GPS observation network in addition 

to the existing wind profilers and microwave 

radars. 

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Fig. 35. KMA’s upper-air observation network and wind profiler sites 

Establishment of K-ROC (Korea Radar 

Operations Center) and Radar Replacement 

The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) 

installed its first radar in Seoul (Mt. 

Gwanak) in 1969. Since then, KMA has built a 

radar network consisting of 10 radars that provide 

nationwide coverage. KMA plans to establish 

K-ROC (Korea Radar Operations Center) in 

2010. The Center will enhance the efficiency of 

KMA’s radar operations by enabling integrated 

operations of KMA’s weather radar observation 

network and the the establishment of standard of standard 

Fig. 36. Working process of K-ROC (Korea Radar Operations Center) 

operations procedures. It is also expected to 

help raise the quality of radar products, develop 

application techniques, and improve observation 

accuracy, thereby enabling maximum use of 

these products. In addition, KMA plans to relocate 

the Donghae radar to Gangneung and replace 

outdated equipment with the state-of-the-art 

radar, with operations scheduled to start in the 

first half of 2010. These measures will provide 

a solution to the observational blind spot in the 

northern part of the Gangwon region.



a) (b) 

Fig. 37. (a) KMA’s weather radar network; (b) Gangneung weather radar site 

Adoption of 4DVAR 

Based on KMA’s strategic plans, the current 

operational NWP system will be replaced with the 

UK’s Met Office Unified Model (UM) in 2010 and 

the data assimilation method will be upgraded 

to 4DVAR. With help from the Australian Bureau 

of Meteorology, the UM’s MetDB (Meteorological 

Data Bank) will be replaced with the ODB 

(Observation Data Base) to maximize portability 

and scalability of its OPS (Observation Processing 

System). Since April 2009, KMA has been 

running 4DVAR every 6 hours with a 6-hour 

window on the locally received observations in 

parallel with the existing operational NWP system 

so as evaluate the performance of the UM prior 

to full operation. The performance of the UM has 

so far proven promising with support from the 

large volume of data assimilated in 4DVAR. 

The volume of satellite data has considerably 

increased with the adoption of 4DVAR. Satellite 

data is needed to fill data void areas such as 

the ocean where typhoons may linger. More 

AMV data from GOES, MTSAT and METEOSAT 

have been used in 4DVAR on the UM compared 

with the existing operational NWP system. 

The quantity of ATOVS and MODIS data has 

also increased considerably. SSMI, AIRS, and 

ASCAT data, which were not used in the existing 

operational NWP system, were newly assimilated 

with 4DVAR. Fig. 38 illustrates the horizontal 

distribution of the observations received through 

GTS and ftp for a day in October. 

Data coverage over the ocean is greatly 

36 

enhanced by satellite observations and the 

reliability of typhoon forecast is expected to 

improve significantly as well. The data quantity 

used in one cycle of 4DVAR is listed in table 1. 

Recently, IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding 

Interferometer) data were assimilated into the 

UM and their impact was evaluated. The RMSE 

of 5-day forecast GPH is reduced 1-5% with 

the IASI data. The improvement is large in the 

tropics where typhoons form. 

2009 

113

114 

ESCAP/WMO 


Fig. 38. Horizontal distribution of observations received through GTS and ftp. 

Table 4. Quantity of received and assimilated data in the UM at 00UTC on the same day as in 

Fig. 38 

14 

12 

10 

8 

6 

4 

2 

0 

09/9/13 

09/9/15 

09/9/18 

09/9/20 

5day fcst 500H rmse over 

09/9/23 

09/9/25 

09/9/27 

09/9/29 

09/10/3 

09/10/7 

09/10/9 

09/10/11Date 

12.00 

10.00 

8.00 

6.00 

4.00 

2.00 

0.00 

-2.00

Fig. 39. Impact of IASI data in tropical areas in 

KMA UMS 4DVAR (KO_CYCLG: Without IASI; 

KO_CYCLG (w/ IASI): With IASI). 

In 2010, GPSRO and SSMIS will be assimilated in 

4DVAR for global application of the UM. 

Direct readout satellite data such as ATOVS 

and AIRS will be assimilated in the regional 

application of the UM with the least latency time. 

High temporal and spatial resolution AMV data 

retrieved from COMS (Communication, Ocean, 

and Meteorological Satellite), scheduled for 

launch in early 2010, will be evaluated with 

4DVAR in the UM to produce better typhoon 

location and intensity forecasts. 

Adoption of the Unified Model as KMA’s Nextgeneration 

NWP System 

KMA decided to adopt the Unified Model (UM) of 

the UK Met Office, and has been developing a 

new next-generation NWP system based on the 

UM since 2008. A preliminary global UM suite 

using initial conditions from the UK Met Office 

started operations in June 2008. Results are 

provided to forecasters, who use them as auxiliary 

material to help produce weather products such 

as accurate and timely typhoon forecasts. 

Recently, a global 4DVAR data assimilation 

system was added to the global UM suite along 

with observation pre-processing procedures for 

various observations to produce more accurate 

and consistent numerical weather predictions. 

KMA conducted a UM re-run project for the past 3 

years (2006-2008). Although the main objective 

of the project was to produce UM-based forecast 

guidance using MOS (Model Output Statistics), 

the results are expected to prove useful for 

various purposes such as model performance 

assessment in the East Asian region, etc. In a 

preliminary analysis, forecast fields were verified 

relative to tropical cyclone (typhoon) tracks 

issued in the Northwest Pacific region. 

The UM system shows improved typhoon track 

forecast skill compared to the operational global 

(GDAPS) prediction. The 3-day (5-day) typhoon 

position prediction error of the UM is 360 

km (420 km) on average (50% of cumulative 

frequency), which is far smaller than errors of 

GDAPS (490 km and 510 km for 3- and 5-day 

forecasts, respectively). In fact, the 5-day 



lti 

typhoon position prediction of the UM is better 

than the 3-day prediction of GDAPS. The global 

UM-4DVAR suite is slated to become KMA’s nextgeneration 

NWP system, replacing the existing 

GDAPS system in 2010. 

Typhoon Distance Error Comparision (GDPS vs 

UM) 

100 

90 

80 

70 

60 

50 

40 

30 

20 

10 

0 

GDPS( +72Hr) 

GDP S(+120Hr) 

UM(+72Hr) 

UM(+120Hr) 

Typhoon Distance Error [Km] 

Fig. 40. A comparison of typhoon track forecast errors 

of the operational global model (GDAPS; red lines) and 

UM (black lines) for 72-hour (solid lines) and 120-hour 

(dashed lines) forecasts. The selected tropical cyclones 

are those observed in the Northwest Pacific during the 

period 2006- 2008. 

KMA’s 3rd Super computer System 

KMA will install its 3rd supercomputer system 

in three stages in 2009 and 2010. The 3rd 

supercomputer system is a CRAY XT5 Baker, 

consisting of AMD multi-core processors. The 

CRAY XT5 was installed as the interim system 

in November 2009. The CRAY XT5 will be 

installed as the initial system in the first quarter 

of 2010, with the CRAY Baker installed as the 

final system in the last quarter of 2010. The peak 

performances of each system are over 14 Tflops, 

27 Tflops and 680 Tflops respectively. Baker, the 

final system, will consist of two clusters, each 

of which will in turn comprise over 40,000 AMD 

multi-core processors. 

The 3rd supercomputer system will be installed 

at the National Supercomputer Center for 

Meteorology, located 100 km south of the KMA 

headquarters. The 3rd supercomputer system 

will be connected to the KMA headquarters via 

high-performance 4-gigabit dedicated leased 

lines. From 2010, the KMA will start to run its next- 

2009 

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 

115

116 

ESCAP/WMO 


generation NWP system based on the UK Met 

Office Unified Model N320L50 as the operational 

model on the 3rd supercomputer system. From 

the last quarter of the 2010, the KMA will run the 

higher-resolution Unified Model N512L76 as the 

operational model for better weather forecasting. 

Fig. 41. KMA’s 3 rd supercomputer system 

Fig. 42. National Supercomputer Center for Meteorology. 


Construction of National Quality Control System 

for Hydrological Data at Geum River This 

project seeks to develop standards on quality 

control of hydrological data and to initiate the 

creation of a national quality control system 

for hydrological data for the Han River water 

system in 2007, expanding this system to the 

Nakdong, Geum and Yeongsan rivers by 2011. 

2009 saw the development of quality control 

standards for hydrological data for the Geum 

River water system, as well as the construction 

and reinforcement of the national quality control 

system for hydrological data for the Geum River 

water system. 

The project aims first to strengthen the existing 

hydrological data management system by 

developing and adopting a quality control system 

for national hydrological data for the Geum 

River, and second, to secure data reliability. 

These objectives were set to address the current 

situation in the country, where data handling 

standards, methods, and data publishing formats 

differ from one hydrological data measurement 

Component 

Installation 2010.12 

System Cray Baker 

Peak Performance 682.9Tflops 

Memory 119.8TB 

Disk 2,073TB 

VTL 507TB 

Tape 4PB 

organization to another, and to facilitate the third 

phase of the project, whose goal is to build a 

system which can easily be used in the field. 

Quality control methods according to hydrological 

data and observation methods of rainfall and 

water level, which are continuous time-series 

hydrological data, can be largely classified into 

the three following categories: 

- Inspection of hydrological observatories and 

management of checked results (Field quality 

control); 

- Automatic review and handling of hydrological 

data (Automatic quality control); 

- Manual review and handling of hydrological 

data (Manual quality control) 

It is difficult to realize a fully automated computerbased 

system to control the quality of hydrological 

data, and furthermore such a system may give 

rise to undesirable results. Therefore, a manual

eview and handling process is necessary for 

all data, with outlier determination rules and 

treatment procedures and methods determined 

in advance. Fig. 43 illustrates the general quality 

control procedures, data management method 

for time-series hydrological data, which were 

applied to the Geum River system. 

To build the quality control system for the Geum 

River area in 2009, the research committee 

assessed the quality control status of the Geum 

River Flood Control Center, and analyzed the 

function and status of the data management 

system in use. The committee determined a 

quality control method for water flux volume data 

with rainfall volume and water level data, which 



was then used to modify/complement the quality 

control system. 

To enhance the viability of the quality control 

task, the committee encouraged on-demand 

education for the staff in charge, and suggested 

a modification/supplementation method and 

improvement plan for the system and standard 

inspection based on evaluations of the system’s 

operation results. By establishing guidelines for 

daily quality control tasks, the committee put 

forth a framework for systematization. It also 

facilitated continued adjustments to the system 

by proposing a sustainable management plan to 

ensure superior hydrological data quality. 

Fig. 43. Quality control procedure of time-series rainfall volume and water level data 

(a) Status of basins (b) Water level data at each forecasting point 

(c) Revision of water level TM data (d) Water level change graph 

Fig. 44. Screenshots of the quality control system. 

42 

2009 

117

118 

ESCAP/WMO 


The project will help build a consensus among 

the experts regarding the importance of 

hydrological observations, and hydrological 

data management and quality control through 

continued implementation of tasks that 

contribute to higher-quality national hydrological 

data. A number of national initiatives will be 

promoted alongside to guarantee the essentials 

of a quality life through active management of 

water resources and information campaigns to 

raise public awareness about the importance of 

national water resources, which are expected 

to play a significant role in changing public 

perception regarding water resources activities 

for the better. 

Ultimately, the newly created quality control 

system for hydrological data, which will enable 

quality control that takes into account field 

characteristics and hydrological data for each 

observation point, will lay the groundwork 

for improving the overall reliability of national 

hydrological data and minimizing loss of 

hydrological data. 



-N.A. 


Results 

- N.A. 


- N.A. 



- N.A. 







goals) 


Education and Training Activities 

The Course on Information and Communication 

Technologies for Meteorological Services 

was organized by the Korea Meteorological 

Administration (KMA) with sponsorship from the 

Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) 

from 24 May to 27 June 2009. The course attracted 

13 participants from 12 countries, which included 

ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Members. 

This training course was designed to help the 

participants improve their IT-related capacity 

in meteorological services by broadening their 

knowledge of both basic and state-of-the-art ICT 

used in WMO IT Programmes and meteorological 

services in NMHSs. The curriculum includes: 

1) Meteorological Information and Communication 

- Basic Linux, Network basics, Network security, 

Internet protocol, FTP server, Data management, 

WMO Information System (WIS) 

2) Meteorological Information Service 

- PC-clustering and its application, Introduction 

to the Forecaster’s Analysis System, 

Meteorological service using web technology, 

Introduction to the Combined 

Meteorological Information System (COMIS), Use 

of KMA NWP products 

3) IT Applications in Agrometeorology 

- Introduction to WAMIS (AgroMeteorological 

Information Service), Operational technology of 

agrometeorological models, Application of GIS to 

agrometeorology 

4) Study Visits and Field Trip 

- Supercomputer Center, Korea Aerospace 

Research Institute, Radar Observation Station, 

Samsung Electronics, Hyundai Motors 

5) Presentations and Discussion 

- Participants’ presentation of country reports; 

group discussion 

Fig. 45. Course on ICT for Meteorological Services, 24 May–27 June 2008, Seoul, 

Korea 

44

One of the most important training courses 

conducted by KMA is the Digital Forecasting 

Course and Disaster Prevention Forecasting 

Course for forecasting staff. The objective is to 

train the next generation of expert forecasters to 

acquire theoretical and operational knowledge of 

meteorology, and to strengthen prediction skills 

for severe weather such as typhoons, torrential 

rain, and heavy snow. The curriculum includes 

the latest meteorological theories, weather 

forecasting and warning issuance, case studies 

of disasters caused by severe weather, etc. 

The First TRCG/TC Technical Forum, 12-15 

May 2009, Jeju, Korea 

The Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) 

hosted the first Technical Forum of Training and 

Research Coordination Group (TRCG) / Typhoon 

Committee (TC) on 12-15 May 2009, Jeju, Korea. 



Fig. 46. Participants in the 1 st Technical Forum of TRCG/TC, 12-15 May 2009, Jeju, Korea 

45 

Participants from 13 countries participated in 

this event co-sponsored by WMO, TC and KMA. 

The Forum opened with opening and welcome 

messages from KMA administrator Dr. Byung- 

Seong Chun, PAGASA administrator Dr. Prisco 

D. Nilo, TCP/WMO chief Mr. Kuroiwa Koji, and 

TC Secretary Mr. Olavo Rasquinho. Two invited 

experts, Professor Russel Elseberry from 

the Naval Postgraduate School, USA, and Mr. 

Takuya Komori from the Japan Meteorological 

Agency, Japan, delivered special lectures on TC 

deterministic consensus forecasts and the TC 

Ensemble Prediction System respectively. Mr. 

Roger Edson gave a presentation about the use 

of microwave and scatterometer data in TC. 

Also notable was a tutorial session on the typhoon 

forecasting system of each country, and KMA’s 

live demonstration of the Typhoon Analysis and 

Prediction System at the National Typhoon 

Center. 

2009 

119

120 

ESCAP/WMO 


The 2nd China-Korea Joint 

Workshop on Tropical 

Cyclones, 19-23 Dec., 

Shanghai, China 

The Korea Meteorological 

Administration (KMA) 

and China Meteorological 

Administration 

(CMA) hosted the second joint 

workshop on tropical cyclones, 

which was held on 19-23 

December 2009, in Shanghai, 

China. Almost 50 experts in typhoons and 

related fields participated from National Typhoon 

Center/KMA, Korea Meteorological Satellite 

Center/KMA, National Institute of Meteorological 

Research/KMA, Shanghai Typhoon Institute 

(STI)/CMA, Nanjing University, Nanjing University 

of Information Sciences and Technology, the 

University of Maryland and the University of Utah. 

26 papers were presented at the workshop on 

a wide range of topics such as typhoon-related 

disasters, the climate and typhoons, typhoon 

forecasting technology, typhoon genesis, and 

structure changes in the development and 

decay stages. KMA and CMA agreed that the 

third workshop will be held in 2010 in Korea 

with more experts from other countries, and 

affirmed their commitment to future cooperation 

in typhoon research, forecast and related areas. 


Participation in the Integrated Workshop of TC in 

Cebu, the Philippines 

From 13 to 18 September 2009, ‘Integrated 

Workshop Building Sustainability & Resilience 

in High Risk Areas of the Typhoon Committee: 

Assessment & Action’ was held in Cebu, the 

Philippines. Approximately 100 experts and 

researchers from 14 Member countries in the 

region attended the workshop to share advanced 

knowledge and to discuss typhoon-related issues 

in the region. From the Republic of Korea, experts 

from 6 organizations took part in this workshop 

to share developed techniques and strategies 

relevant to water-related disasters caused 

by typhoons with other Members, especially 

developing countries. As shown in Table 5, each 

organization represented is a specialized and 

professional water-sector organization in Korea. 

Fig. 47. Participants in the 2nd China-Korea Joint 

Workshop on Tropical Cyclones, 19-23 Dec. 

2009, Shanghai, China

Participants from Korea gave the following 

presentations, designed to introduce advanced 

information and knowledge implemented by 

Korea since the last workshop of the Typhoon 

Committee: 

- Flood Control Measure Assessment System 

· To share outcomes from the project and provide 

advanced techniques to reduce socio-economic 

damage caused by floods 

- Korea’s Policy on Water Resources 

· To introduce water resources policies to control 

floods and adapt to typhoons and water- 

related disasters, and give an overview of the 

newly launched ‘Four Major Rivers 



Table 5. Overview of Korea’s water sector organizations 

Organization Abbr. Activities 

Ministry of Land, 

Transport and 

Maritime Affairs 

Korea Institute of 

MLTM 

Managing water resources generally and establishing 

policies and strategies for the public and the nation 

Construction Technology KICT Implementing studies and research on contemporary 

water issues 

Korea Water Resources 

Cooperation 

K-water Supporting capacity building and implementing joint 

projects 

Korea Meteorological 

Administration 

KMA Producing data and information on meteorology 

including climate change 

National Institute for 

Disaster Prevention 

NIDP 

Establishing strategies and frameworks for disaster 

response 

Korea Water Forum KWF Building international networks for closer cooperation 

in the water sector 

Restoration Project’ 

- Outcomes of ‘High Level Expert Panel on Water 

and Disaster/ UNSGAB’ 

· To understand the seriousness of water-related 

disasters and underscore the importance of 

establishing adaptation frameworks 

Of these, the project ‘Flood Control Measure 

Assessment System’ was initiated in 2008, and 

will continue through 2012. Korea is acting as one 

of the leading countries in the Working Group 

on Hydrology (WGH) of the Typhoon Committee. 

Outcomes and expected results from this project 

will be leveraged to strengthen the capacity of 

each Member. 

Fig. 48. TC Integrated Workshop in Cebu, the Philippines, September 2009 

2009 

121

122 

ESCAP/WMO 


b. Disaster Prevention and Preparedness 


-N.A. 


Results 

- N.A. 

f. Regional Cooperation Achievements/Results 

- N.A. 

g. Identified Opportunities/Challenges for 


- N.A. 


-N.A. 

IV. Update of Member’s Working Groups 


1. Working Group on Meteorology Dr. Won-Tae 

Yun 

Director, International Cooperation Division, 

Korea Meteorological Administration 45, 

Gisangcheong-gil Dongjak-gu, Seoul,156-720, 

Republic of Korea Tel : +82-2-2181-0372 

Fax : +82-2-836-2386 

E-mail: pb_int@kma.go.kr 

2. Working Group on Hydrology Dr. Hong Il-Pyo 

(Vice-Chair) 

Senior Researcher, Water Resources Research 

Department, Korea Institute of Construction 

Technology 2311, Daehwa, ilsan, Goyang City, 

Gyeonggi, Republic of Korea Tel : +82-31-910- 

0264 

Fax : +82-31-910-0251 

E-mail: iphong@kict.re.kr 


Preparedness Dr. Waon-Ho Yi 

Director, National Institute for Disaster Prevention 

253-42, Gongdeok-2Dong, Mapo-Gu, Seoul, 121- 

719, Republic of Korea Tel : +82-2-3271-3201 

Fax : +82-2-3271-3209 

E-mail: whyi1208@nema.go.kr 


Dr. KiRyong Kang 

Senior Researcher, National Typhoon Center, 

Korea Meteorological Administration 76-2, 

Hannam-ri, Namwon-eup, Seogwipo, Jeju, 699- 

942, Republic of Korea Tel : +82-64-801-0224 

Fax : +82-64-805-0366 

E-mail: krkang@kma.go.kr 

5. Resource Mobilization Group Dr. Hee-Dong 

Yoo (Chairperson) 

Director, Numerical Model Development Division, 

Korea Meteorological Administration 45, 

Gisangcheong-gil, Dongjak-gu, Seoul, 156-720, 

Republic of Korea Tel : +82-2-2181-0672 

Fax : +82-2-2181-0689 

E-mail: hyoo@kma.go.kr

SINGAPORE 

II. Summary of progress in Key Result Areas 

(For achievements/results which apply to more 

thanone Key Result Area, please describe them 

under the most applicable Key Result Area. 

Then, at the end of the description, place in 

parentheses ( ) the other applicable Key Result 

Areas) 








(i) Singapore will be installing a new 2.4m 

X/L-band satellite reception system to 

receive not just the NOAA and EOS 

MODIS data, but also from new satellites – 

METOP(EUMETSAT), FY3 and NPP (NASA- 

NOAA). The new system will be commissioned 

in 2010. 

(ii) To help alleviate the impact of storms 

such as squalls, or tropical cyclones, 

Singapore provides heavy rain and strong winds 

advisory and warning to various government 

agencies for enhancing preparedness for 

expected heavy rain and strong winds. The 

warnings are also issued to the public via the 

media. 


Over the past decades, Singapore has been 

improving the drainage infrastructure. The floodprone 

areas have been reduced from 3200 ha 

in the 1970s to about 79ha in 2009. Singapore 

continuously reviews and upgrades her drainage 

infrastructure to ensure an effective drainage 

network for flood alleviation and prevention. 



Singapore continued to enhance the national 

Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) with 

the addition of 2 new seismic sensors in 2009, 

completing the seismic network of a total of 

8 sensors distributed over the island. Data 



from the seismic stations are transmitted 

to the central processing system in MSD and 

integrate with seismic data from regional 

seismic monitoring networks such as Malaysia, 

Indonesia and Australia for the automatic and 

continuous monitoring of seismic activities in 

the region. Data from seismic stations located 

over a much wider area enables MSD to 

enhance the accuracy and speed of detecting 

earthquakes in the region. 

Singapore provides water rescue and 

evacuation operations in the event of floods, 

resulting from typhoons and sustained rainfall 

and alerts the general public through the Public 

Warning System on the dangers of an impending 

flood. 


As in (c) above. 

Singapore’s Civil Defense Force provided 

assistance to Manila, Philippines between 

Sep and Oct 2009 to mitigate and reduce the 

consequences of typhoon-related floods and 

increase the survivability of the people. 

e. Identified Opportunities/Challenges for Future 


- 








As in KRA 1(a) 


- 



As in KRA 1(c). 


Results 

Singapore’s Civil Defense Academy provides 

disaster rescue and mitigation courses to the 

international community. 


Under the ambit of the United Nations 

2009 

123

124 

ESCAP/WMO 


Environment Programme/Office for the 

Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNEP/ 

OCHA) Joint Environment Unit (JEU)), 

Singapore provides international assistance for 

Hazardous Materials emergencies (HazMat) 

that may arise from typhoon-related incidents. 



- 







Plan goals) 


- 


- 



- 


Results 

(i) Singapore participated in training workshops/ 

conferences/meetings during the year. 

Some were sponsored/organized by the Typhoon 

Committee. Singapore would like to express her 

thanks and appreciation to the Typhoon Committee 

for giving us the opportunity to participate in 

the workshops which our officers have found 

very useful and beneficial in their course 

of work. The list of relevant workshops/ 

conferences are as follows: - Remote Sensing 

for Disaster Management in SE Asia, 4 – 6 Feb 

09, Bangkok, 

Thailand 

- ICG/IOTWS-VI Meeting, 4 – 9 April 2009, 

Hyderabad, India 

- 1st Training and Research Coordination Group 

(TRCG), 12 – 15 May 09, Jeju, 

Korea 

- Tokyo Climate Conference: Better Climate 

Information for a Safe & Sustainable Society, 

6 – 8 July 2009, Tokyo, Japan 

- ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Integrated 

Workshop “Building Sustainability 

and Resilience in High Risk Areas of the 

Typhoon Committee:Assessment & Action”, 14 

– 18 Sept 2009, Cebu, Philippines 

- Training Workshop on Climate Applications in 

ASEAN, 2 – 9 October 2009, Kuala 

Lumpur, Malaysia 

(ii) Singapore hosted the 5th APEC Climate 

Symposium on 12 - 15 July 2009 in 

conjunction with the 5thAPEC Climate Center 

(APCC) Working Group Meeting and the 

5thAPCC Science Advisory Committee Meeting. 

The sympo sium also included a tutorial session 

on empirical downscaling for regional adaptation 

and a hands-on session using the Climate 

Information Kit. The event was attended by 60 

participants from 21 National Meteorological 

and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) and 

institutions, including the APEC Secretariat and 

the co-chair of the Task Force on Emergency 

Preparedness (TFEP) also attended the event. 


As in KRA 3(d) 



- 







goals) 


As in KRA 1(a) and KRA 6(a) 


- 



As in KRA 1(c).


Results 

- 


- 



As in KRA 2(e). 




and Associated Activities in the Strategic 




- 


- 



- 

d. Research, Training and Other Achievements/ 

Results 

- 


Singapore joined 17 other countries around 

the Indian Ocean Rim to test the effectiveness 

of its tsunami warning system for the first 

time during Exercise Indian Ocean Wave 

2009 (IOWave09) which took place on 14 

October 2009. The Meteorological Services 

Division of NEA, as the tsunami watch centre 

of Singapore, coordinated with the other 

government agencies during the exercise to 

test their operational lines of communications. 

This exercise was also part of an on-going 

effort to test the national tsunami early warning 

system. 



- 







Strategic Goals and Associated Activities 



Plan goals) 


(i) Replacement of Weather Radar 

The existing S-band Doppler weather radar at 

Meteorological Services Division (MSD), 

Singapore is an indispensable tool used for 

real-time surveillance of extreme weather 

conditions (such as storms and wind shear) 

which can adversely affect the safety of airline 

and shipping operations as well as activities 

of the general public. The existing radar is 

in the process of being replaced with a new 

S-band dual-polarization radar. The new radar 

is expected to be installed and be operational by 

2Q of 2010. 

(ii) Message Switching System 

The Message Switching System which handles 

the reception of information via GTS/AFTN 

(including TC advisories etc) is being replaced 

with a new system to enhance its reliability and 

capability. The international links to RTH- 

Melbourne, RTH-Bangkok, NMC-Kuala Lumpur, 

NMC-Jakarta and NMC-Manila (as part of the 

GTS) are also in the process of being migrated 

from Frame Relay to MPLS. 


- 



As in KRA 1(c) 


Results 

- 


- 



2009 

125

126 

ESCAP/WMO 








Plan goals) 


- 


- 



As in KRA 2(e). 


Results 

- 


- 



- 


- 




Ms Patricia Ee 

Chief Meteorological Officer 

Operational Services Department 

Meteorological Services Division 

National Environment Agency 

Singapore 

Email: Ee_gek_may@nea.gov.sg 


Mr Mah King Kheong 

Head, Climatology and Marine Meteorological 

Section Technical and Services Department 



Singapore 

Email: Mah_king_kheong@nea.gov.sg 


Preparedness 

Ms Lim Lay Eng 

Senior Meteorological Officer 

Main Meteorological Office 

Operational Services Department 



Singapore 

Email: Lim_lay_eng@nea.gov.sg 


Mr Tham Chien Wan 

Senior Meteorological Officer 

Research and Development Section 

Technical and Services Department 



Singapore 

Email: Tham_chien_wan@nea.gov.sg 


-

THAILAND 

1 Progress on Key Result Area 1: Reduced 






a Meteorological Achievements/ Results 

1. Improvement of Radar network: 

To strengthen severe weather observations 

and monitoring networks, and nowcasting of 

the country, the following two C-band Doppler 

Radars which started the installations in the 

North of Thailand in 2009 have been completely 

finished and have been in operations: 

(1). C -band Doppler Radar in Lumphun, 

(2). C- band Doppler Radar in Petchaboon. 

Additionally, three C -band Doppler Radars are 

being installed as follows, and all are expected 

to be completed in 2010: 

(1). C -band Doppler Radar in Songkhla, 

(2). C -band Doppler Radar in Samui, 

(3). C -band Doppler Radar in Surin. 

Totally, there are 25 weather radars in the 

TMD‘s precipitation monitoring network. 

2. Improvement of the telemetering system in 

Thailand 

In 2009, TMD installed 820 automatic rain 

gauges in the major river basins in Northern, 

Northeastern, Central and Eastern Thailand, 

increasing the total number of automatic rain 

gauges to 930. Totally there are 1,093 automatic 

rain gauges in the network, and 111 of those 

are river-level automatic observations. With the 

dense, real-time observations in the TMD’ s 

telemetering system, it is expected that severe 

flood warning will be issued promptly and 

effectively. 

3. Improvement of satellite receiving station 



Recognizing the importance of using remote 

sensing data particularly the satellite data, TMD 

has extended the implementation of satellite 

receiving stations both for the GEO-stationary 

and Polar orbit as shown in the table 1. below: 

Table 1. 

Satellite 

Platform 

GEOstationary 

Current 

status 

Future plan Remarks 

1 MTSAT MTSAT, FY2 Under 

implementation, 

Polar orbit 1 NOAA NOAA, 

TIROS, 

MODIS, 

METOP, FY3, 

METEOSAT 

expected to finish 

in 2011 

4. Improvement of storm surge forecasting 

To be prepared for effective warning of storm 

surges that might be occur in the coastal areas 

in the Gulf of Thailand and the Andaman Sea 

during the typhoon season, the IIT Storm Surge 

Model was introduced to TMD. It is under the 

experimental and proper adjustment process 

before using as the storm surges forecasting tool 

of the country. However, TMD will also appreciate 

to accept and introduce the RSMC Storm Surge 

Model into the operation. 

5. Implementation of Automatic Weather Station 

In 2009, TMD has completed the installation of 

Automatic Weather Station(AWS) consisting of 

87 stations across the country. All meteorological 

elements will be automatically reported in the 

real-time manner, additionally the critical index 

of severe weather-associated events such as 

the abnormal strong wind and precipitation are 

also set up for the system to give alarm signals to 

issue warning to people promptly. 

6.Improvement of Global Telecommunication 

Circuits(GTS): 

For meteorological data to be disseminated 

effectively in the global telecommunication lines 

and to be prepared for the WMO Information 

System(WIS), GTS circuits of the TMD‘s RTH 

2009 

127

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ESCAP/WMO 


have been consistently updated. The current 

status of the TMD’ s GTS is shown in the table 

2. below: 

Table 2. 

Circuit Speed Protocol Type 

Bangkok-Tokyo 128 Kbps IPVPN MPIS Rx/Tx 

Bangkok-Kuala 

Lumpure 

Bangkok- 

Singapore 

64 Kbps IPVPN MPIS Rx/Tx 

64 Kbps IPVPN MPIS Rx/Tx 

Bangkok-Beijing 64 Kbps IPLC Rx/Tx 

Bangkok-New 

Delhi 

Bangkok- 

Vientiane 

Bangkok- 

Phnom Penh 

Bangkok- 

Yangon 

64 Kbps IPLC Rx/Tx 

64 Kbps DDN Rx/Tx 

Internet VPN Client Rx/Tx 

Internet TCP Socket Rx/Tx 

Bangkok-Hanoi 1200 bps Asynchronous Rx/Tx 


Royal Irrigation Department(RID)’s strategic goal 

has been set up in the aspect of mitigating the 

water disaster from flood or drought. Office 

of Hydrology and Water Management which is 

directly responsible for taking care of such strategy 

in the aspect of supporting the hydrological data 

or research benefit for water management, has 

also set the strategic plan accordingly with the 

item of the achievement of Water Crisis Situation 

Announcement. 

Actually, Office of Hydrology and Water 

Management, Hydrology Section has the 

responsibility of meteorological and hydrological 

data in the criteria of processing the data for 

studying or forecasting for the purpose of the water 

resources development and water management 

that is the Royal Irrigation Department (RID) 

mission. 

Following such responsibility, Hydrology Section 

has got strategic goal relating to the Department 

Strategy in the achievement of Water Crisis 

Situation Announcement. The indicators for the 

achievement can be seen in the critical situations 

in 2009 as follow: 

1. “KETSANA” was a prominent cyclone 

effecting the northeastern Thailand from 

September 29, 2009 to October 3, 2009. 

2. “PARMA” was another one effecting the 

northern Thailand from October 5 to 15, 2009 

3. Frontal Rain still effected the major part 

of Thailand particularly in lower north, lower 

northeast, central and east from October 16 to 

27, 2009 

4. Low Pressure Center in southern part of 

Thailand from September 7 to 27, 2009 

The details of the origins, impacts and measures 

for risk mitigation can be seen in the following 

Table 3 below. 

To mitigate and reduce the risk of 2009 floods, 

the flood warning system is carefully managed in 

the following process. 

First, telemetering system is used as a method 

for flood forecasting in different river basins 

covering nearly the whole country. Only Royal 

Irrigation Department has already got the system 

for monitoring 12 river basins from 25 in the 

criteria of real-time hydrological data. 

Second, the forecasting situation is then 

announced to public with different ways like 

website or radio broadcasting or networks. For 

network mentioned above means regional offices 

which take part in communicating in the local 

areas with other methods or media. 

Third, after flooding situation, pumping for water 

drainage has to be prepared in order to reduce 

the height of water level or inundated areas. 



SG 1: To enhance cooperation among TC 

Members to reduce the number of death by 

typhoon-related disasters by half (using the 

decade 1990-99 as the base line compared to 

the decade 2006-2015).

1) Identify Members’ key agencies and sectors 

working on disaster preparedness and protection 

of vulnerable communities against typhoon-related 

disasters and encourage establishment of linkages, 

networking, and exchange of information among 

them 

· Disaster Prevention and Mitigation 


The National Disaster Prevention and Mitigation 

Committee (NDPMC), under the Disaster 

Prevention and Mitigation Act B.E 2550(2007), 

will be appointed to be the disaster management 

policy mechanism of the country. The committee 

is comprise of Prime Minister or designated 

Deputy Prime Minister as chairperson, Ministry 

of Interior as first vice chairperson, Permanent 

Secretary to Ministry of Interior as second vice 

chairperson and the membership from the 

national government organizations concerned. 

Director – General of Department of Disaster 

Prevention and Mitigation is designed as member 

and secretariat of the committee. 

The main functions of NDPMC are to determine 

the policy for formulating the national disaster 

prevention and mitigation plan, to integrate 

the development on disaster prevention and 

mitigation mechanism among government 

and local administration agencies including 

other relevant private sectors, and to issue the 

regulations on the payment of remuneration, 

compensation and other expenditures relevant 

to disaster prevention and mitigation activities 

under the regulation of Ministry of Finance. 

· Department of Disaster Prevention and 

Mitigation 

After the bureaucratic reform in 2002, the 

Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation 

(DDPM) has been set up under the Ministry of 

Interior to serve the national disaster management 

system so as to sustain Thailand’s habitability and 

safety. When the current Disaster Prevention and 

Mitigation Act B.E.2550 was issued and forced 

in November 2007, the Department of Disaster 

Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) has been 

designed as the national government organization 

and operating agency on national disaster 

prevention and mitigation activities. Moreover, 

DDPM can establish the Disaster Prevention 



and Mitigation Regional Centers and the Disaster 

Prevention and Mitigation Provincial Offices to 

carry out the efficient disaster management. 

Nowadays, DDPM has set up 18 Disaster 

Prevention and Mitigation Regional Centers and 

75 Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Provincial 

Offices over the country. DDPM Regional 

Centers and Provincial offices will be the front 

line unit to carry out the disaster prevention 

and mitigation. DDPM will cooperate with the 

relevant organizations both government and 

private sector and local agencies to perform the 

task. To mobilize the technology and know-how, 

exchange and share experience and information, 

DDPM has cooperated with various international 

organizations such as ADRC, ADPC, JICA, GTZ, 

UNDP UNISDR, UNOCHA, UNEP, etc. 

2) Assist as request Member’s policy 

development and strategic planning on disaster 

risk management with special emphasis 

on densely populated areas and vulnerable 

communities 

· Strategic Action Plan (SNAP) for Disaster 

Risk Reduction for Thailand 

Thailand recognized that the strategic plan on 

disaster risk reduction is essential to minimize 

the incidents, consequently, DDPM cooperated 

with United Nations International Strategy for 

Disaster Reduction (UNISDR) and Asian Disaster 

Preparedness Centre (ADPC) to formulate 

Strategic Action Plan (SNAP) for Disaster Risk 

Reduction for Thailand and set up a working 

group which is composed of the representatives 

of the government agencies concerned, private 

sector and experts to draft SNAP. The draft plan 

is on process to submit to Cabinet for approval. 

3) Provide an effective framework for integrating 

early warning systems for vulnerable communities 

into development process. 

The early warning system in Thailand could divide 

into 2 levels. In the national level, there are many 

organizations to take responsibility for the task 

relevant disaster warning. Thai Meteorological 

Department, Royal Irrigation Department, 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


Department of Water Resources and Disaster 

Forecasting and Warning of Electricity Generating 

Authority of Thailand (EGAT) Public Co. Ltd are 

the main agencies to forecast the disaster warning 

on their own function. Therefore, Thailand’s Early 

Warning Information from these agencies will be 

transferred to the people via mass media and 

agencies concerned and Department of Disaster 

Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) will transmit 

the information through mechanism of Ministry 

of Interior to provinces, districts and local 

organizations. 

After Tsunami disaster triggered the 6 southern 

provinces of Thailand on 26 December 2004, 

the government reviewed disaster early warning 

system to develop the system more efficiency and 

to make more confidence in safety in the country. 

In 2005, the cabinet appointed the Committee 

on Early Warning System Development which 

comprise the representatives of the departments 

concerned, will be responsible for making the 

decision as to when a warning should be issued. 

The National Early Warning Center has been set 

up to carry out the early warning system. 

In the local level, the rain gauge and manual 

disaster siren have been installed in the flood 

prone areas. This device is employed for observing 

and notifying of local flood conditions, forecasts 

and warnings. The rain gauge is extremely low 

cost and very simple to use. The villagers will 

be trained to measure, record and read the daily 

amount of rainfall. Whenever the amount of rainfall 

exceeds the predefined normal level, the villager 

in charge of surveillance signal the warning by 

using the manual siren device to notify the village 

headman to disseminate the warning through the 

village news broadcast center. 



Research : 

In 2009, TMD carried out researches on the 

following topics: 

· The analysis of seasonal temperature and 

rainfall variation 

In this study, the variation trends of the mean 

maximum temperature, the mean minimum 

temperature, and the amount of rainfall were 

evaluated for the summer, winter and rainy 

seasons in Thailand. Data from year 1951 to 2006 

from 45 meteorological stations were analyzed 

using statistical methods. The results reveal that 

mean of maximum and minimum temperature 

tend to have significant during both winter 

and summer, especially the mean minimum 

temperature demonstrated an extremely 

significant change, with an increasing temperature 

of 0.03 0 C per year in winter and summer, and 

0.018 0 C per year in rainy season. Whereas, the 

mean maximum temperature increased 0.015 0 C 

in winter, 0.01 0 C in summer and 0.02 0 C per year 

in rainy season. The analysis of rainfall over a 

period showed a decrease of 0.925 mm. per year 

in winter and 1.084 mm. per year in rainy season. 

While in summer the rainfall increase 0.015 

mm. per year. The seasonal rainfall, however, 

did not show a statistically significant tendency. 

Therefore it can be concluded that weather in 

Thailand is becoming warmer all seasons. 

· Application of PRECIS for climate change 

Predictability in Thailand 

The regional climate model PRECIS has been 

implemented on OpenSUSE 10.3 LINUX 

to investigate the climate projection for the 

period 1961-2100 with initial and boundary 

condition of ECHAM 4 for scenario A2 with low 

resolution 2.8x2.8 degrees. The model showed 

daily, monthly, yearly, seasonally and decadal 

projections of rainfall and temperature. The 

model can perform well in the yearly average of 

minimum temperature projection of the selected 

stations in Thailand. However, the difference 

of observed yearly average of maximum 

temperature and model is high at about 3.5 0 C. 

And the observed rainfall is also much higher 

than those obtained from the model. 

· Application of ECPC G-RSM for monthly 

to seasonal prediction in Thailand 

The ECPC-G RSM is used for global and regional 

weather forecasting and data assimilation in 

Thailand, and is applied for long range weather

forecast on 64 bits LINUX parallel system with 

the initial and boundary condition of GFS model 

and NCEP center. The minimum temperature 

of the model showed good agreement with the 

observed data, especially at the stations located 

at long distance away from coastal areas such as 

Chiang Mai and Ubon Ratchathani 

· Climate variability during pre-southeast 

monsoon 

The study of climate variability in Thailand during 

the pre-southwest monsoon using the record 

data of 45 stations from 1951-2008 to statically 

analyze its variability. The results showed that 

the pattern of rainfall in all parts of Thailand is 

increasing, except in the southwest part where 

it showed decreasing in its tendency, while both 

the maximum and minimum temperature showed 

significantly increase in all parts of the country. 

ENSO, IOD and MJO are also investigated 

to explain the relations to rainfall in the presouthwest 

monsoon of Thailand 

· Suitable Monsoon Indices Investigation 

for Thailand 

Thailand monsoon indices are calculated from 

the differences of the 850 hPa U-wind of the 

selected area. The areas selected for indices 

investigation are 40-80 0 E, 5-15 0 N, and 90-110 

0 E, 20-30 0 N referred as TMI1, and 80-100 0 E, 

5-15 0 N and 90-1100 0 E, 20-30 0 N referred as 

TMI2. The results showed that indices from TMI2 

played more significant role ,with R 2 at 0.5-0.8, 

on monthly average rainfall change than those of 

TMI1 where R 2 at 0.4-0.6 , particularly in upper 

Thailand. 

Training: In 2009, TMD received WMO/ TCTF/ 

TCS support to attend the training courses in 

the TC as follows: 

Table 4. 



2009 

No. Course Title (s) Duration Country No. of 

participant(s) 

1. The 1st Training 

and Research 

Coordination 

Group (TRCG) 

Technical Forum 

2. Training on 

Hydrological 

Observation and 

Flood Forecasting 

Method and 

System 

3. The 3rd On-thejob 

Training of 

Flood Forecasting 

System Based on 

the Tank Model 

(OJT) 

4. The Integrated 

Workshop 

on Building 

Sustainability 

and Resilience in 

High Risk Areas 

of the Typhoon 

Committee: 

Assessment and 

Action 

5. Typhoon roving 

seminar 

6. The Second 

WMO 

International 

Workshop on 

tropical cyclone 

landfall process 

Sensing an 

12 - 15 May 

2009 

20 - 26 July 

2009 

21 July - 

23 August 

2009 

14 - 18 

September 

2009 

16-19 

November 

2009 

19-23 

October 

2009 

Republic of 

Korea 

3 

China 4 

Malaysia 1 

Philippines 3 (TMD), 

1 (RID), 

2 (DDPM) 

China 2 

China 1 


Results 

Please refer to Regional Cooperation Assessment 


Future Achievements/ 

Results 

· Participation in the TIPs workshop at Jeiju, 

131

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ESCAP/WMO 


ROK will be first step of TIPS implemention in 

TMD 

· Research fellowships given to TMD on 

Typhoon Vortex initialization will lead to the 

improvement of Typhoon forecasting in Thailand. 


Minimized Typhoon-related Social and 

Economic Impacts. (List progress on the 




goals) 


Please refer to KRA 1a 


Please refer to KRA 1b 



Nil 



Please refer to KRA 1d 


Results 

Please refer to Regional Cooperation 

Assessment 


Future Achievements/ Results 

Please refer to KRA 1f 


Enhanced Beneficial Typhoon-related Effects 

for the Betterment of Quality of life. (List 




Plan goals) 


Nil 


Nil 



Nil 



Please refer to KRA 1d 


Results 

Nil 



Nil 







goals) 







SG4a: To provide reliable typhoon-related 

disaster information for effective policy 

making in risk management in various 

sectors 

DPP related: 

1) Survey and document Members’ legal framework 

for disaster Prevention and Preparedness policy, 

plan, and governance structure for priority sectors 

for sharing among Members 

· Structure of Disaster Management 

System 

The structure of disaster prevention and mitigation 

system in Thailand was divided into 3 levels as 

follows 

1. Policy Level: The National Disaster Prevention and 

Mitigation Committee is the policy maker body. The 

national disaster prevention and mitigation plan 

will be the tool to drive the disaster management. 

2. Command Level: Minister of Interior as 

Commander in Chief has authority to control and 

supervise the situation throughout the country, 

however, in the catastrophe event, Prime 

Minister or Designate Prime Minister will be Chief 

of Commander. The Department of Disaster 

Prevention and Mitigation is the national government

organization to operate the disaster prevention and 

mitigation all over the country 

3. Operation Level: 

DDPM Director General as Central Director 

has the duties to prevent and mitigate disaster 

throughout the country and supervise the 

Provincial and Local Director, staffs and civil 

defence volunteers. 

Provincial Governor as Provincial Director has 

the duties to copes with the disaster prevention 

and mitigation in the province. 

Chief of District as District Director has the duties 

to carry out the disaster prevention and mitigation 

in the district. 

Head of Local Administration Agencies as 

the Local Director have the duties to carry out the 

disaster prevention and mitigation in their local 

areas. 

Bangkok Metropolitan Administration (BMA) 

Governor as BMA Director has the duties to 

carry out the disaster prevention and mitigation in 

Bangkok. 

· National Prevention and Mitigation Plan 

In 2007, Thailand repealed the Civil Defence Act 

1979 that was issued since 1979 and enacted the 

Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Act 2007 to 

increase capacity of the disaster management. 

This act has significantly changed the Thailand’s 

disaster management system particularly on the 

structure of the national disaster management. 

As mentioned in SG1, under the present Act, the 

Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Committee is 

responsible for formulating the national disaster 

prevention and mitigation plan. The substantial 

of the national plan shall comprise as fellows: 

1) Guideline, measures and adequate budget 

to contribute systemically and continuously the 

disaster prevention and mitigation 

2) Guideline and method to assist the victims 

in short and long term, evacuate the effected 

people, provide the public health and solve the 

communication and public utility problems 

3) Relevant government and local agencies have 

the duty to operate all tasks under 1) and 2) 

4) Guideline on the resources and asset 

preparedness and operation system including to 



building capacity of staffs and people. 

5) Guideline on reconstruction, recovery and 

rehabilitation to the effected people. 

Nevertheless, DDPM has cooperated with the 

organizations concerned to formulate the master 

plan of the various disaster types such as 

Master Plan on Flood, Windstorm and Landslide 

Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, Master Plan 

on Tsunami Disaster Prevention and Mitigation, 

Master Plan on Earthquake and Building Collapse 

Disaster Prevention and Mitigation. 

SG4b: To strengthen capacity of the 

Members in typhoon-related disaster risk 

management in various sectors 

DPP related: 

· Focus on disaster preparedness and 

prevention: Thai disaster management has been 

shifted its focus from “assistance” or “relief” to 

“preparedness and prevention”. This approach 

was accepted to reduce the damage and 

impact substantially. Several projects, both the 

construction and non construction measures, 

have launched for disaster risk reduction for 

example Community Base Risk Reduction 

Project, Mr. Warning Project, Early Warning 

System Installation in the risk areas. 

· Develop database: Thailand develops the 

disaster database by using the high technology, 

GIS will be applied in the disaster risk assessment. 

· Enhance public awareness: The training 

course, training material are organized to 

educate and increase knowledge in the disaster 

field meanwhile the disaster prevention and 

mitigation manual on specific disaster type are 

produced and disseminate to the public 

· Exercise or evacuation drill: Due to the 

Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Act 2007, 

BMA, Provinces, Districts have to organize the 

exercise or evacuation drill at least 2 time per 

year. DDPM will contribute the budget to operate 

it. The exercise aim at testing the efficiency of 

the plan and well prepare to people in confront 

with disaster occurrence. 

SG4c: To enhance international and regional 

cooperation and assistance in the field of 

disaster risk reduction 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


Thailand has adopted Hyogo Framework for 

Action (HFA) since 2005 and has initiated 

various projects to minimize disaster risk. The 

technical, experts, know-how and information 

sharing from the international organizations 

and developed countries have been transferred 

to the related organizations for increasing 

disaster management capacity. Moreover, in 

the disaster regional committees meeting, Thai 

representatives from department concerned are 

the national focal point in regional committee 

such as TMD Director–General as the national 

focal point of Typhoon Committee, DDPM 

Director–General as the national focal point of 

ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management. 




Results 



Nil 



Typhoon-related Disasters. (List progress 

on the Strategic Goals and Associated Activities 



goals) 


Disaster Awareness Outreach Program 

To support the country in disasters mitigation 

and preparedness, TMD has continued its 

implementation on the Disaster Awareness 

Outreach Program to educate children and 

people in the disaster-risk area to be prepared to 

confront and cope with disasters, about 60,000 

people participated in 2009. 





SG 5a: To promote and enhance culture of 

community-based disaster risk management 

among the Member Community Based 

Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) 

Approach 

Thailand has realized that it is essential to improve 

public safety for every sector of the people, 

particularly those who are in the risk areas. 

“Community Based Disaster Risk Management 

(CBDRM)” approach is to reduce vulnerabilities 

and to strengthen people capacity to cope with 

the disaster risk. Therefore, CBDRM has been 

applied to generate the awareness and to implant 

the culture of safety for the people in disaster 

prone areas. 

Thailand by DDPM has cooperated with the local 

agencies such as Thai Red Cross, Local Authority 

Department and International Agencies; Asian 

Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC), GTZ, Asian 

Disaster Reduction Center(ADRC), Japanese 

International Cooperation Agencies(JICA) to 

generate the awareness of the general public 

CBDRM approach. It has attracted the intervention 

of the people in every community to participate 

in holistic disaster management. Since 2003- 

2008, DDPM has continuously launched CBDRM 

training, at present, more than 30,000 persons 

in 3,354 villages 75 provinces which are the 

risk communities have been trained on CBDRM 

approach. 

In this year, DDPM has initiated the new project 

to strengthen the community which has been 

trained on CBDRM. The 18 communities which 

were selected from all over the country will be 

retrained to be sustainable community on disaster 

prevention. 

Mr. Warning Project 

Thailand is the flood prone areas. Therefore, 

DDPM initiated the Flashflood and Mudslide 

Warning Program to enhance capacity of the local 

in risk assessment and early warning. Under this 

program, DDPM has collaborated with Department 

of Provincial Administration, Department of Local 

Administration, The Meteorological Department, 

National Park Wildlife and Plant Conservation 

Department, and National Disaster Warning

Centre to design “Mr. Disaster Warning” training 

course. This course aims at creating disaster 

warning network particularly in flashflood and 

mudslide prone village. “Mr. Disaster Warning” is 

the village volunteer who has been selected and 

trained to function as a vigilant, a forewarner and 

a coordinator. Nowadays, the 7,817 people in the 

flood prone areas to be trained in this programme. 

SG 5b: To promote education, training and 

public awareness of typhoon-related disasters 

among the Members 

DPP relate: Provide training and outreach 

activities to and face – to- face meetings with the 

people at the last kilometer/ mile and the local 

first responders. 

· Disaster Prevention and Mitigation 

Academy 

Department of Disaster Prevention and 

Mitigation has set up Disaster Prevention and 

Mitigation Academy (DPMA) in October 2004 

to be the national training center in the field of 

disaster management. DPMA has coordinated 

with the agencies and developed countries 

including international organizations to develop 

curricula and mobilize the technology and 

know-how for standardize training. The courses 

will be organized to serve the capacity of 

the government officers, local administration 

officers and private sector who are in charge 

of the disaster management including civil 

defence volunteers. Nowadays, DPMA has 

extended to 6 campuses in upcountry. The 

standard curricula have consisted of the Fire 

Fighting, Building Collapse (Search and Rescue), 

Hazmat Emergency Management, Civil Defense 

Volunteer and Disaster Management. 

· One Tambon One Search and Rescue Team 

Project (OTOS) 

Thailand has recognized the immediate need to 

establish a range of search and rescue capacities 

at national, provincial and particularly in local 

levels. In 2004, Thailand by DDPM has launched 

the “One Tambon(sub-district) One Search and 

Rescue Team (OTOS) Programme” which will 

resulted in the establishment, training and long- 

term maintenance of specially trained search 

and rescue team in every tambon community. 



DDPM, has incorporated various government 

agencies and NGO such as Department of Local 

Administration, Health Insurance Office, Office 

of Health Promotion and Support Fund, and 

Thai Red Cross, to achieve the OTOS objectives 

which the OTOS objectives are (i) to ensure the 

safety of life, and the rapid and efficient search 

and rescue operation; (ii) to establish efficient 

search and rescue team at every provinces, 

district and tambon in the country; (iii) to enhance 

capacity and efficient search and rescue team 

through technical training and drilling; and (iv) 

to provide first aid treatment and rapid transfer 

to the appropriate medical establishment. As 

of November 2009, OTOS program is 85% 

completed with 6,615 SAR teams (10 members) 

based in each tambon or local administration 

offices throughout the country and more than 

68,000 volunteers trained. 

· Building Capacity of Civil Defense 

Volunteer Program 

The disaster management role in Thailand, 

apart from the government organizations and 

private sector, the other important resource in 

the operation level is Civil Defense Volunteer. 

Pursuant to the Disaster Prevention and 

Mitigation Act 2007 and Ministry of Interior’s 

Civil Defense Regulations 2005; civil defence 

volunteers will be recruited from local residents 

with age over 18 years and will be trained on 

Civil Defense Volunteer course for 5-days. Their 

function is to holistically assist the government 

official’s operation of all type of disaster. 

Currently, there are approximately 1 million 

Civil Defense Volunteers (As of 31 October 

2009, there are around 1,146,140 Civil Defense 

Volunteers in the country) 

DDPM provides the training courses for Civil 

Defense Volunteers to increase their capacity 

on disaster prevention and support their various 

activities. The training courses for Civil Defense 

Volunteer will be more intensive so as to equip 

them with know-how on various disaster 

management activities including search and 

rescue. After their training, these volunteers 

will be officially organized and based at their 

local communities and can be summoned to 

assist the officials in managing the emergencies 

anytime. 

2009 

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Please refer to KRA 5c/SG4b 


Results 

Nil 



Nil 




Typhoon-related Threats. (List progress on 

the Strategic Goals and Associated Activities in 



goals) 




Please refer to KRA 1b, 



Nil 



Please refer to KRA 1,5c 


Results 

Nil 



Nil 

6. Progress on Key Result Area 

7: Enhanced Typhoon Committee’s 

Effectiveness and International Collaboration. 






Publicizing the WMO activities on the occasion 

of the WMO Day and TMD Day by organizing 

seminars for both public and TMD. 


Nil 



Nil 



Nil 


Results 

Nil 



Nil 

III.Resource Mobilization Activities 

Nil 



Nil

USA 

II. Summary of Progress in Key Result Areas 



a. Meteorological - Achievements/Results 

· Active coordination between RSMC Honolulu 

forecasters, NOAA Marine Fisheries, NOAA 

Office of Marine and Aviation Operations, the 

U.S. Coast Guard, and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife 

Service resulted in the successful evacuation of 

three remote islets in the Papahanaumokuakea 

National Monument (NW Hawaiian Islands) in 

advance of Hurricane Neki. A total of 17 people 

were safely evacuated. 

· 

b. Hydrological – Achievements/Results 

c. Disaster Prevention and Preparedness - 


d. Training, Research, and Other – 

Achievement/Results 

· RSMC Honolulu hosted a three-day class for 

19 Emergency Managers and First Responders 

on 14-16 April. The three-day pilot course was 

a specialized training opportunity to build the 

capacity of the civil defense/emergency manager 

to understand hurricanes and make effective 

protective action decisions during a hurricane 

threat. Through hands-on and interactive 

instruction with specialists at RSMC Honolulu, 

the course provided participants with an intensive 

instruction on all aspects of tropical cyclone 

forecasts and products, along with local National 

Weather Service forecast office products. 

e. Regional Cooperation – Achievement/ 

Results 


Future - Achievements/Results 



Impacts. 







· FM Radio Station on Chuuk, FSM. An FM 

Weather Radio station was installed at the Chuuk, 

FSM Weather Service Office (WSO) in 2007 

and gave the island the capability of reaching 75 

percent of its population. In 2008, a repeater 

was installed on Weno that gave the broadcast 

an even greater coverage. However, in 2009, 

the FM station was severely affected by the 

frequent power outages on the island. To better 

cope with this, a heavy duty power supply was 

purchased. A similar FM radio station installed 

at the Majuro WSO in March 2008 will also be 

upgraded to maintain its service time. Because 

of the remoteness of the many atolls/islands in 

this region, broadcasting weather information 

on FM radios provides vital weather information 

and warnings to a population that is limited in 

its communication systems and is a step toward 

achieving an early warning system for these 

islands. 

· 




Results 





Betterment of Quality of life. 








Results 





2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


in Various Sectors. 


· New Tropical Cyclone Products. RSMC Honolulu 

implemented several new tropical cyclone products 

and changes to current products for the 2009 Central 

Pacific Hurricane Season. The first was the addition 

of a three-tiered and color-coded scheme to describe 

the probability of development for areas described in 

the graphical Tropical Weather Outlook. The second 

was the tropical cyclone Wind Field Graphic which 

displays the areas affected by tropical storm and 

hurricane force winds. A graphical display of Tropical 

Cyclone SIGMETS was also added to the RSMC 

product suite. Finally, the Maximum Wind Speed 

Probability Wind Table was extended from 72 hours 

to 120 hours. 

· WFO Guam worked with the University of Guam’s 

(UOG’s) Water and Environmental Research Institute 

(WERI) to produce up-to-date tropical cyclone risk 

and return period charts and climatologies for each 

of the 37 islands for which WFO Guam issues Tropical 

Cyclone Watches and Warnings. These new station 

climatology materials have been distributed to many 

of the Micronesian islands. 




· Hawaii State Hazard Mitigation Forum. The 

Hawaii State Hazard Mitigation Forum, of which RSMC 

Honolulu is a member, is tasked with maintaining and 

updating the Hawaii State Hazard Mitigation Plan. 

Forum members met regularly and to discuss hazard 

threat, risk assessment, and actions which can be 

taken to mitigate the hazard risk to protect lives and 

property from loss and destruction during a natural 

hazard. 

· RSMC Honolulu is a member of the Hawaii 

Emergency Preparedness Executive Consortium 

(HEPEC). HEPEC is comprised of emergency 

managers and disaster mitigation personnel 

from local, state, and federal agencies. HEPEC 

meets quarterly to provide updates on current and 

outstanding threats, both natural and manmade, to 

the State of Hawaii. The RSMC Honolulu Director 

provided a hurricane presentation to the group during 

the June 2009 meeting. 

· RSMC Honolulu staff was a contributing member 

in the development of the Hawaii Catastrophic 

Hurricane Readiness Response Plan. The 

catastrophic event was a strong Category 4 hurricane 

making landfall near Ewa Beach on the island of Oahu. 

The Operations Plan provides specific and detailed 

strategies to execute a joint State, local, Federal, 

Non-Governmental Organizations, and Private sector 

preparation and response in this situation. (See 

section 6d). 



· Exercise Pakyo. A two-day exercise 

sponsored by the Department of Homeland 

Security/Federal Emergency Management 

Agency (FEMA) was held on Guam on 9 to 10 

June. WFO Guam participated in this exercise 

and was responsible for devising the scenario 

of the exercise. The scenario consisted of an 

intensifying Category 5 typhoon (super typhoon) 

moving directly over Guam. Local and Federal 

government agencies and several representatives 

of the private sector plus international observers 

from the Philippines participated in the exercise. 

· Makani Pahili Hurricane Exercise. The 

annual Makani Pahili Hurricane Exercise, 

coordinated by Hawaii State Civil Defense (CD) 

in partnership with the National Weather Service 

(NWS) Forecast Office in Honolulu was held 

from 26 May to 4 June. This year’s exercise was 

the culmination of a year-long effort to develop, 

exercise, and validates the Hawaii Catastrophic 

Hurricane Readiness Response Plan. RSMC 

Honolulu exercised coordination procedures with 

civil defense and military partners around Hawaii 

during the event. 


Results 



Progress on Key Result Area 5: Strengthened 


Disasters. 


· Monthly Pacific ENSO Discussion. Each 

month, WFO Guam Warning Coordination 

Meteorologist (WCM) provides a written 

discussion on the status of the El Nino-Southern 

Oscillation (ENSO) and its effects on Micronesia. 

This discussion is relayed to weather officials, 

emergency managers, US ambassadors and 

other agencies in Micronesia. These discussions 

not only entail the trend of the ENSO but provide 

information on hydrological and sea level 

conditions associated with it. 

· Hurricane Presentation to City and County

of Honolulu Hawaii and Cabinet. The Director 

of RSMC Honolulu provided a presentation on 

hurricane risk and preparedness to the City 

and County of Honolulu Mayor and his cabinet 

at their monthly staff meeting. Mayor, Honolulu 

Police Department, Department of Emergency 

Management and others expressed appreciation 

for WFO Honolulu’s great partnership and service. 




· Rota StormReady/TsunamiReady 

Recognition. The island of Rota, CNMI, was 

recognized as StormReady/TsunamiReady on 

17 March. StormReady and TsunamiReady are 

two prestigious NOAA programs that recognize 

locations as being highly prepared to respond to 

and recover from severe storms and tsunamis. In 

addition, the island of Guam successfully renewed 

their recognition as StormReady/TsunamiReady 

for another three years. 

· Annual Tropical Cyclone and Disaster 

Preparedness Workshop. These two-day 

workshops are designed for decision makers in 

the local and state governments and agencies 

cover various topics such as: tropical cyclone 

behavior, structure and hazards; WFO Guam 

tropical cyclone program, products and timing of 

products; tsunamis and volcanoes; rip currents, 

currents, and tides; tropical cyclone plotting 

and speed-distance-time computations; climate 

variability and climate change; typhoon risk and 

vulnerability; a scale that relates tropical cyclone 

wind speed to damage and storm surge; El Nino/ 

La Nina and their effects, impacts and status; and 

tropical cyclone decision making for individual 

islands/states. WFO Guam conducted workshops 

at Pohnpei and Chuuk in the FSM, and at Saipan, 

CNMI and on Guam. 

· National Disaster Preparedness Month. 

September was declared National Disaster 

Preparedness Month for 2009. The Emergency 

Management Offices on Guam and in the CNMI 

took the lead and arranged the events. On Guam, 

several events and numerous activities such as 

school presentations and a Grand Finale event 

at a major shopping center showcased the 

Preparedness Month. WFO Guam participated 

in the proclamation signing by the Governor of 

Guam, several awareness activities with over 



500 contacts, the Grand Finale Display at the local 

Shopping Center with more than 150 contacts. 

· RSMC Honolulu Press Conference for 

the 2009 Central Pacific Hurricane Season. 

RSMC Honolulu hosted a press conference to 

announce the 2009 Central Pacific Hurricane 

Season Outlook on 20 May. Following opening 

remarks from the RSMC Honolulu Director, guest 

speaker Fire Chief Kenneth Silva of the Honolulu 

Fire Department spoke on the role of first 

responders in a disaster and keynote speaker 

Mufi Hanneman, Mayor of the City and County of 

Honolulu touched on personal responsibility for 

emergency preparedness. Theme of the week 

was “Hawaii’s First Responders are Prepared, 

Are You?” All four local television stations and the 

two state-wide newspapers attended the press 

conference and featured stories that evening 

and/or the next day on hurricane preparedness 

and the forecast for an 80 percent chance of a 

near to below normal season and a 20 percent 

chance of an above normal season depending on 

the development of El Nino in the Pacific. 

· Hurricane Preparedness Workshops. RSMC 

Honolulu personnel conducted 17 hurricane 

related workshops including the annual CPHC 

Press Conference and staffed booths at 5 

emergency fairs. Overall, RSMC Honolulu 

participated in a total of 111 educational or 

outreach events to internal partners and external 

customers at all levels. These included Hawaii 

Fishing and Seafood Festival (15,000 people 

attended); Waianae Elementary School Career 

Day (300); as judges at the Hawaii State Science 

and Engineering Fair (500); University of 

Hawaii School of Earth and Ocean Science and 

Technology Open House (4,000 students). 

· Two RSMC Honolulu Hurricane Specialists 

were interviewed by The Weather Channel for 

a special documentary on Hurricane Iniki which 

devastated the island of Kauai, Hawaii, USA in 

1992. The documentary, which aired in late 

2009, served as a stark reminder Hawaii is very 

vulnerable to tropical cyclones in the Pacific, even 

though they have not experienced a direct hit in 

nearly 20 years. 



· Aviation Workshop. An Aviation Workshop 

was held on Guam on 27 August and included 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


presentations on the basic weather in the 

west Pacific, typhoons and outlook for 2009, 

thunderstorms, wind shear, ENSO update for 

aviators, and local aviation issues. 

· University of Guam lectures. Environmental 

Biology classes at the University of Guam 

participated in lecture series at the WFO Guam 

during the spring and fall semesters. WFO Guam 

WCM gave the 2-hour presentation on basic 

weather plus hazards such as tropical cyclones, 

volcanic eruptions and tsunamis. 

· Summer Science Programs. RSMC Honolulu 

participated in three summer science programs 

for elementary and high school students. One 

was for students from the “How to be a Weather 

Wiz Kid” class at Kamehameha Schools to learn 

about tropical cyclones and severe weather and 

the second were students from the “Discovering 

Science through Aerospace” class at Mid Pacific 

Institute to learn about tropical cyclones and 

climate in Hawaii. The third was the Sky and 

Space Class taught at the University of Hawaii 

Lab School. 


Results 



Progress on Key Result Area 6: Improved 



Typhoon-related Threats. 


· RSMC Honolulu coordinated the deployment 

of Air Force Reserve WC-130 and NOAA Gulf 

Stream hurricane reconnaissance aircraft as 

Hurricane Felicia headed toward the main 

Hawaiian Islands. The flights provided crucial 

data which greatly assisted RSMC forecasters. 

· RSMC Honolulu extended the lead time of 

tropical storm/hurricane watches from 36 hours 

to 48 hours and the lead time of tropical storm/ 

hurricane warnings from 24 hours to 36 hours. 


· Hawaii Rain Gage Collection Network 

Replacement. NOAA NWS Pacific Region 

received funding to implement the second year 

phase to replace the entire rain gage collection 

network system in the state of Hawaii. The new 

system is replacing the aging rain gages with 

new technology and will use HF radio line of sight 

communication system rather than land or cell 

phone lines. The project commenced in January 

2009 to install the communication infrastructure. 

Eighteen new gages have been installed to date. 



· The Hawaii State CD installed video 

teleconference (VTC) equipment at RSMC 

Honolulu on a dedicated circuit. The equipment 

provides a valuable communication tool to 

effectively provide coordination during severe 

weather events. The equipment complements a 

VTC system installed by the FEMA in 2007 which 

is now kept as a backup. 

· WFO Guam WCM participated in the 

2009 UNESCAP/TCP Roving Seminar held in 

Nanjing, China from 16-19 November, 2009. 

His participation included a discussion of the 

requirements for and content of tropical cyclone 

warning messages. In this training, the WCM 

included background and review of the needs of 

a strong National disaster preparedness program 

and provided a large selection of tools that could 

improve tropical cyclone warnings. Finally, a 

hands-on assessment of warnings of each of the 

eight participating countries was conducted. 

· RSMC Honolulu served on the national 

HazCollect Implementation Team. HazCollect is 

a system which allows Emergency Managers 

to send Civil Emergency Messages directly to 

NOAA Weather Radio for broadcast in regions 

of the USA or throughout the entire USA. WFO 

Honolulu and Hawaii State CD jointly participated 

in the initial alpha testing starting in late 2008 

and was one of the first offices to implement 

HazCollect operationally in 2009. Guam also 

implemented HazCollect, which extended the 

capabilities to the Guam and CNMI Governors and 

Emergency Managers. 

· On two occasions, RSMC Honolulu hosted 

Forecasters and Typhoon Duty Officers from 

the Naval Maritime Forecast Center (NMFC) and 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). The visits 

were to familiarize NMFC and JTWC staff with 

RSMC Honolulu operations and forecast software 

packages and to increase collaboration amongst 

the two agencies. 


Achievement/Results

· In-house seminars. WFO Guam held two 

seminars for local forecasters and military 

components on island. The QuikSCAT seminar 

provided by the WFO Guam Science and 

Operations Office (SOO), was held on 6 and 

14 April. Those in attendance walked away 

with an understanding of the processes behind 

QuikSCAT and its strengths and weaknesses. 

The second seminar was an introduction to the 

Dvorak Analysis Technique by the SOO and the 

Guam WCM. 

· Tropical Cyclone Conference. Commander in 

Chief US Pacific Fleet (CINPACFLT) held a Tropical 

Cyclone Conference and the METSAT Conference 

from 27 April to 1 May at Pearl Harbor, Hawaii. 

Some highlights from the conference included 

a discussion on the Automated Meteorological 

Observing System (AMOS) network, the potential 

loss of Scatterometer and ocean wave altimetry 

data, and the civilianization of the JTWC Director 

and three forecasters to improve continuity 

and experience. JTWC also celebrated it 50 th 

Anniversary, inviting past JTWC Directors and 

Navy Commanders to attend the ceremony. 

· Mr. Richard Grumm, Science and Operations 

Officer, NWS State College, Pennsylvania, 

presented a detailed three-day seminar, 9 to 

11 September to WFO Guam personnel on the 

use of NWP ensemble techniques for improving 

forecasts in the tropics. His presentations 

were well received and greatly enhanced all 

participants’ appreciation for the latest NWP 

techniques, especially in better understanding the 

degree of uncertainty and probabilities associated 

with tropical cyclone track predictions. 

· WFO Guam SOO participated in a community 

white paper presented at the OceanObs’09 

symposium, Venice, Italy 21-25 September on 

the satellite-derived surface winds component 

of the observing system, with applications for 

operations and for climate prediction. 

· From 1 January to 31 October, the Pacific 

International Desk Training Programme, 

RSMC Honolulu, Hawaii Islands, USA trained 6 

forecasters from 6 different members of WMO 

Regional Association (RA) V regions, including 

Samoa, Vanuatu, New Guinea, Philippines, 

Solomon Islands, and Tonga. Since its inception 

in 2001, 52 people from 15 Members of WMO RA 

V and 2 Members from the Typhoon Committee 



have attended this programme. The USA 

government, through NOAA NWS funded the 

training programme. 

· FEMA and the Hawaii State CD Catastrophic 

Disaster Event Planning. FEMA, Hawaii State CD, 

the University of Hawaii, Pacific Disaster Center, 

and RSMC Honolulu completed the development, 

exercise, and validation of the Hawaii Catastrophic 

Hurricane Readiness Response Plan in 2009. 

The plan features a strong Category 4 hurricane 

hitting the most populated area of Honolulu, 

Hawaii. As part of this planning, the University 

of Hawaii developed a very sophisticated Storm 

Inundation model for island communities with 

coral reefs. RSMC Honolulu developed 12 

hurricane tracks with varying tracks, speed of 

movement, intensity, and size. FEMA executes 

part 1b of the plan with a hurricane in the central 

Pacific approaching Hawaii, and 1c either when a 

watch is issued for the islands or the probability 

of hurricane force winds are between 10 and 20 

percent for any place on the islands. At stage 1b, 

FEMA expends significant funds by pre-locating 

people and resources, because of the isolated 

nature of the Hawaiian Islands. 

· As part of the Hollings Scholar program, a 

student from Florida State University spent 9 

weeks at RSMC Honolulu. This scholar along with 

the Deputy Director of RSMC Honolulu conducted 

studies of probabilistic tropical cyclone genesis in 

the central Pacific. All available data on tropical 

cyclones were used with Dvorak fixes as one of 

the major data sources. This research continues 

and in the future may involve RSMC Miami and 

the Atlantic Ocean. 

· RSMC Honolulu continues to advocate for 

real time ocean vector winds for the future. The 

Deputy Director is part of the Operations Team 

associated with the planning, development, and 

coordination with NASA, Japan, and others on 

replacements to Quikscat winds. 

· Wind probabilities for tropical storm and 

hurricane force winds out to 120 hours play an 

important part in the ability of RSMC Honolulu 

to communicate risks to emergency managers 

and other decision makers. RSMC Honolulu is 

working with RSMC Miami on a Joint Hurricane 

Testbed project to continue to improve the 

beneficial use of these probabilistic winds. 

· Hurricane Specialists and Hurricane 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


Forecasters at RSMC Honolulu completed their 

annual hurricane and Dvorak technique training. 

· WFO Guam worked with the Pacific ENSO 

Applications Center (PEAC) to issue quarterly 

newsletters that included 1-year predictions of 

tropical cyclone activity, rainfall and sea level 

fluctuation. In coordination with the US Climate 

Prediction Center, the WFO Guam WCM also 

produced and issued 1-page Monthly Pacific 

ENSO Discussions for the Micronesian islands 

and American Samoa in RA-V. 


Results 

· RSMC Honolulu Deputy Director attended two 

meetings with the Japan Aerospace Agency to 

collaborate on their next generation of satellites 

which will provide ocean surface wind vector data 

similar to current Quikscat data used to assess 

the strength and structure of tropical cyclones. 

· RSMC Honolulu participated in an international 

test of Tropical Cyclone SIGMET dissemination 

which was coordinated by the WMO. RSMC 

Honolulu issued a test Tropical Cyclone Advisory 

followed by a test Tropical Cyclone SIGMET. 





International Collaboration. 



· USA participated in the Typhoon Committee 

Integrated Workshop “Building sustainability and 

Resilience in High-Risk Areas of the Typhoon 

Committee” in Cebu, Philippines from 14 to 

18 September. Technical studies and regional 

cooperation opportunities concerning flood 

hazard mapping and debris flows in Micronesia 

were discussed. 



· The US Member of the Typhoon Committee 

Working Group on Disaster Prevention and 

Preparedness (WGDPP) participated in 4 th annual 

meeting of the WGDPP in Seoul, Korea on 28 to 

29 April. As a result, USA will participate in the 

Hong Kong pilot project called “Weather Wizard”. 



· The US Member of the Training and Research 

Coordinating Group (TRCG) participated in a oneweek 

Technical Workshop sponsored by the TRCG 

and held at the new Typhoon Forecast Center, 

Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), Jeju 

Island, South Korea, 12 to 15 May. The emphasis 

was on ensemble forecasting techniques (the 

US member helped select the speaker, Dr Russ 

Elsberry, for this portion of the workshop) and 

on Typhoon Information Processing Systems 

(TIPS). The US member also presented a lecture 

on the use of current satellite-based microwave 

data techniques to forecast and detect tropical 

cyclones to the workshop. 


Results 







· Mr. Bill Ward 

Pacific Guardian Center 

737 Bishop Street, Suite 2200 

Honolulu, HI 96813-3213 

Phone: 808-532-6415 

Facsimile: 808-532-5569 

bill.ward@noaa.gov 


· Mr. Michael Ziobro 

3232 Hueneme Road 

Barrigada, GU 96913 

Phone: 671-472-0950 

Facsimile: 671-472-7405 

michael.ziobro@noaa.gov 


Preparedness 

· Ms. Genevieve Miller 



Phone: 671-472-0944 

Facsimile: 671-472-0980 

genevieve.miller@noaa.gov 

4. Training and Research Coordinating Group

· Mr. Roger Edson 



Phone: 671-472-0950 

Facsimile: 671-472-7405 

roger.edson@noaa.gov 


· Mr. James Weyman 

2525 Correa Road, Suite 250 

Honolulu, HI 96822-2219 

Phone: 808-973-5272 

Facsimile: 808-973-5271 

james.weyman@noaa.gov 



I. Summary of progress in Key Result Areas 

(For achievements/results which apply to more 

than one Key Result Area, please describe them 

under the most applicable Key Result Area. Then, 

at the end of the description, place in parentheses 

( ) the other applicable Key Result Areas) 









· Established the flash flood warning system 

with 8 automatic rainfall gauges in Lao Cai 

province 

· Established the flood warning system with 2 

automatic rainfall gauges in Kon Tum province. 

· Established the flood warning system with 

10 automatic rainfall gauges in Thua Thien Hue 

province on frame of MAHASRI’s near-realtime 

rainfall data in Central Vietnam. 




Nil. 

e. Identified Opportunities/Challenges for 


Nil. 


Minimized Typhoon-related Social and 

Economic Impacts. (List progress on the 




goals) 


Nil. 


Nil. 



· The Disaster Relief Fund for the Central 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


Region was established to support the postdisaster 

recovery in the region 

· The Program on reinforcement of sea dyke 

system from Quang Ngai to Kien Giang was 

approved by the Prime Minister in May 2009. This 

program includes 3 phases: 2009 – 2012; 2013 – 

2016; and 2017 – 2020. 

· The Program on reinforcement of river dyke 

system was approved by the Prime Minister in 

December 2009. This program from 2009 to 

2020. 

· The National Report on the implementation 

of the Hyogo Action 2008 was developed by the 

Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. 



· In October, 2009, Asian Disaster 

Preparedness Center in cooperation with the 

Ministry of Education and Training and Tien Giang 

province to organize a workshop on “Provincial 

Partnership for implementing and maintaining 

the School Flood Safety Program in Flood area” 

in Tien Giang. More than 60 people from the 

Ministry of Education and Training, The Mekong 

River Commission Secretariat (MRCS), Vietnam 

National Mekong River Commission, Department 

of Dyke Management – Flood and Storm Control, 

provincial line agencies, teachers and students of 

project provinces, neighbour provinces such as 

Ben Tre, An Giang and Dong Thap participated in 

the meeting. 

The purpose of the workshop was to consolidate 

the experiences and lesson learnt from the 

School Flood Safety Program since 2007 in 

the Mekong Delta and to activate the existing 

provincial partnership to further conduct child 

safety awareness programs in the schools by the 

teachers as part of regular activity of the school 

in the long term. 

The School Flood Safety Program (SFSP) in 

Mekong Delta, which is implemented by The Asian 

Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC) through 

The Mekong River Commission Secretariat 

(MRCS) with the funding support from the 

German Government development agency GTZ 

and European Commission Humanitarian Aid 

department (ECHO), is an innovative public 

awareness program involving the Primary and 

Secondary School teachers and the students to 

reduce the impact of the annual flooding due to 

Mekong River 

· Regional training course on “Methods to 

assess the damage and loss” in Bangkok, 

Thailand, 6-9/1/2009 

· The first session of Committee for Disaster 

Risk Mitigation in Bangkok, Thailand, 24-28/3/09 

· Workshop “ cooperation for response capacity 

enhancing to Disaster in Tu Xuyen, China, 27- 

30/5/09 

· Global forum on disaster mitigation in 

Switzerland, 16-19/6/09 

· ASEAN Regional Forum on Natural Disaster 

Mitigation (ARF-ISM) held in Hawaii, United 

States, 15-20/9 

· Forum ARDEX-09 in Philippine, 22- 

29/10/2009 

· National forum and activities in the Hyogo 

framework of the European countries, held in 

London, UK, 11-13/11/09 


Nil. 



Nil. 







goals) 



Nil. 



Nil. 



Nil.


Nil. 



Nil. 



Various Sectors. (List progress on the Strategic 








· The 2009 conference on the national storm 

and flood prevention and response, and search 

and rescue was expedited online, chaired by the 

Deputy Prime Minister Hoang Trung Hai. 

· The 2009 workshop on dyke management 

and maintenance, and flood and storm control 

operations for the Northern, Central and Highland 

provinces with dykes was organized in April in 

Danang, Central Region. 

· The Government’s Decree on the 

responsibilities and duties of the CCFSC and the 

committees at lower levels was amended 

· The Program on Community Based on 

Disaster Reduction Management until 2020 was 

approved by the Prime Minister in July 2009. 

The program includes 3 phases: 2009 – 2010; 

2011 – 2015; and 2016 – 2020. This project 

is expectedly implemented for 12 years (2009- 

2020) for over 6,000 villages and communes 

frequently affected by natural disasters. The 

total budget for the project is approximately VND 

988.7 billions, with 55% being contributed by the 

state budget, 5% public contribution and 40% 

ODAs with no obligations to repay granted by 

international organizations. 

· In March 2009, National Disaster Mitigation 



Partnership (NDMP) and Disaster Management 

Centre (DMC) jointly organized and facilitate a 

Workshop on Planning for the Future of Natural 

Disaster Mitigation Partnership and the Disaster 

Management Model. The second half of this 

workshop focused on discussions of the current 

model or structure for disaster management in 

Vietnam, the major issues and challenges, and 

both needs and ideas for the future. 

· In May 2009, Standing Office of Central 

Committe for Flood and Storm Control (Standing 

Office of CCFSC) and CARE in the facilitation 

of a Workshop on Initiating the Process 

for Development of Legislation on Disaster 

Management in Vietnam under the DIPECHO 

funded JANI project. This workshop sought 

to develop a roadmap for the development and 

approval of disaster management legislation, in 

line with the legislative approval procedures of 

the Government of Vietnam. 

· In June 2009, Standing Office of CCFSC 

organise and run a consultation workshop in 

southern Vietnam. The purpose of the workshop 

was to get provincial feedback on Government 

plans to revise the decree outlining the functions, 

duties and organizational structures of the 

CCFSC. The workshop was broadened to include 

consultation with representatives from lower 

levels of Government, the academic community 

and civil society. 

· In June 2009, CCFSC held a major workshop 

on International Disaster Management Models. The 

workshop, focusing on all disaster management, 

decentralized disaster management and 

institutional systems for disaster management, 

was considered extremely successful with 

a large amount of interest and involvement, 

particularly from Government participants. 

International guest speakers from Australia, 

Japan and ADPC gave presentations and lead 

discussions on disaster management approaches 

and arrangements in other countries. A senior 

Government official responsible for national 

security capability development in Australia came 

to Vietnam for the workshop. In the course of 

his visit initial informal discussions were also 

held regarding the possibility of establishing an 

ongoing relationship between Vietnamese and 

Australian disaster management institutions. It is 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


hoped these discussions will be followed up in 

the near future. 



· Provincial flood and storm control planning 

capacity building in Mekong river delta 

Learning workshop and training for flood and 

storm control planning capacity building was 

conducted for 4 days, 9 – 12 June, 2009 in 

Ben Tre province. It was co-organized by Ben 

Tre Committee for Flood and Storm Control, 

Mekong River Commission and the Asia Disaster 

Prevention Centre. This workshop is one of the 

activities under the 6th action plan of DIPECHO 

funded by the European Humanitarian Committee. 

Ben Tre is one of the Southern provinces in 

the Mekong river delta having prepared the 

provincial action plan for disaster management 

to implement the National Strategy for Natural 

disaster prevention, response and mitigation and 

annual flood and storm control plan for 2008 – 

2009. This shows that the provincial flood and 

storm control committee has been well prepared 

and ready for responses to disaster at any time. 

The workshop focused on consulting members of 

the provincial flood and storm control committee 

on action planning, capacity building for annual 

flood and storm control plan development and 

implementation, and inter-sectoral coordination 

for implementing the National Strategy to 2020 

under the instruction of the Central Committee 

for Flood and Storm Control. 

The workshop was attended by 73 participants 

who are representatives of Ben Tre province and 

9 districts in the province, the Department of Dyke 

management and Flood and Storm control, the 

International Mekong river commission, the Asia 

Disaster Prevention Centre, and the neighbouring 

provinces such as Tien Giang, Dong Thap, and 

An Giang. 

· 2nd conference of ACDM: training programs 

and sense of community in Vientiane, Laos, 21- 

22/1/2009 

· 13th annual meeting of ACDM, 16-21/2/2009 

· Workshop “Sharing information about 

damages caused by storm in Seoul, Korea.”, 27- 

30/4/09 

· Training Course on ASEAN Disaster Risk 

Management in Yango , Myanmar, 27-31/7/09 

· Meeting on next activities of the 3rd 

Asia Ministerial Conference prepared for the 

Ministerial Conference of the 4th Asian Disaster 

Risk Mitigation held in South Korea., 9-15/8/09 

· Annual meeting of the 14th ACDM in Indonesia, 

30/11-1/12/09 






Typhoon-related Disasters. (List progress on 




goals) 


· Special arrangements are made with the 

national television channels to improve weather 

programs. Forecasted parameters and fields 

are automatically sent to the TV by a reserved 

server. In the case of extreme weathers such as 

tropical cyclone, additional briefings are provided 

to the TV weather interpreters so that the 

weather situations can be better explained to the 

public. As a result, the weather forecasts as well 

as tropical cyclone warnings have become more 

popular and understandable to the people. 

· A link has been established from NCHMF 

to the office of Emergency Rescues for a quick 

dissemination of meteorological information 

(satellite images, observations, weather bulletins 

and TC warnings) 






e. Regional Cooperation Achievements/Results










goals) 


a.1 Observation network 

a.2 Technical advancement 

· A new receiving station of FY satellite has 

been installed sine November 2007 for getting 

geostationary satellite images, which provide 

additional information from satellite observations 

to forecasters. 

· DVORAK technique is adopted to estimate 

the intensity of tropical cyclones in operational 

forecasting. 

a.3 Numerical Weather Prediction 

· The High Resolution Model (HRM) is 

operationally running 4 times per day with the 

increased horizontal resolution of 14km x 14km 

with different initial and boundary conditions 

interpolated not only from the DWD’s global model 

GME, but also from the Japanese GSM model 

· The ETA model has been put into the 

operational running twice per day for the 

Vietnamese region. 

· The storm surge model adopted from 

Japanese version has been used semioperationally 

when a typhoon is predicted to 

affect our region. The input data are taken from 

either the forecast fields from Japanese GSM 

model, HRM outputs or the predicted tracks. 

Additionally, the wave model (WAM) has been 

studied for running on the parallel computer. 

· Short-range ensemble forecast system 

(SREFS) with 20 members from 5 global models 

(GEM, GFS, GME, GSM and NOGAPS) for 4 

regional models (BoLAM, ETA, HRM, WRF-NMM) 

was developed and under testing for operational 

application. 



a.4 Software 

· The GEMPAK/N-AWIPS package from 

UNIDATA/UCAR has been installed, studied and 

undergone the adaptation to be used with the 

data feed from local sources at NCHMF. 

· An interactive software for assisting tropical 

cyclone forecasting (“TCAid”) has been used 

operationally by forecasters in producing TC 

subjective guidance. This software was developed 

in 2007 as a new version of “TCInfo” using 

Microsoft SQL Server 2000 database. Inheriting 

all the advantages of “TCInfo” and applying the 

advanced IT technology, “TCAid” has many 

other convenient functions to meet forecaster’s 

requirements in operational work and it has been 

used for the 2009 typhoon season. 

· “HMSTyph” software was developed for 

displaying TYPH observations at hourly intervals 

during the TS approaching coastal areas of 

Vietnam. 


· Improvements of software in data processing 

and analysis: Continued to develop the software 

for the preservation of hydro-meteorological 

database, for hydrological data collection, 

processing and timely transmitting hydrological 

information and forecasts to end-users. 

· Employ the MARINE and FIRR models to 

forecast flow in upstream area of Da, Thao, 

Lo rivers, Reservoir Flood Routing model for 

reservoir’s regulation in Da river and create the 

input for the Hydraulic model TL2 in lower stream 

of Red river. 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


Hydrological forecasting 

· Developing the TANK Model for flood 

forecasting with lead time 120h and time step of 

6h since flood season of 2005 

for flood forecasting with lead time 120h 

· Developing MIKE-11 Model for flow forecasting 

with lead time 48h in the lower Red river. 

· Developing the HydroGIS model for flood 

forecasting with lead time 5 days in lower Mekong 

River.

Tool bar 

· Developing the distributed hydrologic model 

WETSPA and hydraulic model HECRAS for flood 

forecasting with lead time 24 – 36 hours in Vu 

Gia – Thu Bon river system 

· Assessing impacts of reservoir systems 

in Da and Lo rivers on dry season flow 

in downstream of Hong river system and 

proposing solutions for ensuring water 

resources for the downstream. 





d1. Research: 

· On-going Ministry Project: Study and 

experiment on quantitative rainfall forecasting 

by using statistical methods on HRM and GSM 

models 

· On-going Ministry Project: Development 

and application of forecasting system on 

meteorological factors using statistical methods 

on HRM model 

· Study and application of ETA model and 

products of global model GFS on operational 

weather forecasting. 

· Development of software to display surfacemeteorological 

data on AERO 

· Development of Hydro-meteorological 

database system to serve operational forecasting 

and research in NCHMF 

· On-going Ministry Project: Development of 

method of estimating quantitative rainfall base on 

geostationary satellite images MTSAT 




Main menus 

Hydrometeorological 

stations 

Popup menu 

of short-term weather ensemble forecasting 

system in Vietnam 

· Experiment and application of satellite 

data FY-2 on hydro-meteorological operational 

forecasting 

· Application NAWIPS software to analysis and 

display weather maps on computer 

· Study of data assimilation on WRF model to 

serve weather and typhoon forecasting 

· Study using weather radar DWSR 2500C at 

Nha Be station to serve warning and observing 

rainfall. 

· On-going Ministry Project: Investigating, 

surveying, zoning and warning possibility of 

occurring flash flood in mountainous area of 

Vietnam 

· On-going Ministry Project: Application of 

climate information and climate prediction to 

serve social-economic industries and disaster 

preparedness in Vietnam 

· ODA Project: Sea level scenarios and 

possibility of minimizing natural disaster-related 

hazards 

· ODA Project: Impacts of climate change on 

water resources and adapting methods 

· 2 projects are continuous executing: 

- Flash flood mapping Project with purposes: 

drawing up of flash flood map and establishing 

flash flood warning system in the North Viet Nam 

(the first phase 2006-2008 in Ha Giang provinces 

with more than 70 automatically rainfall stations) 

- Establish the alarm system of water level in 

Vietnam. 

· On-going National Project: Development and 

application of the American NWSRFS Model for 

Flood and inundation forecasting and warning in 

Hong – Thai Binh river system. 


of flood prediction and inundation warning 

technology in Ve – Tra Khuc river system, the 

technological experiment and transfer. 


of 5-day flow prediction technology to large 

reservoirs in Da and Lo river system. 

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d2. Training: 

· Training course on “Mekong river 

commission’s flash flood guidance (MRCFFG) 

system” in hydrologic research center, USA, 

from 8 to 22 June 2009 

· In depth regional Training course and hands 

- on operations “the Mekong river commission’s 

flash flood guidance (MRCFFG) system” in 

SiemReap, Cambodia, from 19 to 23 October 

2009 

· Vietnam Training course on “Mekong river 

commission’s flash flood guidance (MRCFFG) 

system” in Hanoi, Vietnam from 16 to 18 

December 2009 

· Training course on “Advanced analysis of 

COMS data” in Koica, Korea from 3 September 

2009 to 24 September 2009. 

· Training course on “Building Sustainability 

and resilience in high risk areas of the typhoon 

committee: Assessment and action” in Cebu, 

Philippines from14 to 18 September 2009. 

· Training workshop on “Application and 

verification of Global Flood warning system 

(GFAS)” in Tshukuba (Japan) from 3 to 7 

August 2009. 

· The 4 th International Coordination Group 

(ICG) metting of the GEOSS Asian Water Cycle 

Initiative (AWCI) held at the Kyoto Research 

Park, Kyoto, Japan, 6-7 February, 2009 

· The 5 th metting of the GEOSS Asian water 

Cycle Initiative (AWCI) international Coordination 

Group (ICG) held on the University of Tokyo 

campus in Tokyo, Japan on 15-17 December 

2009, with a sattilite data training course and 

workshop on 17-18 December at the same 

venue. 

· Vietnamese-Japanese workshop on “the 

Hue Wateralong community” held on the 

University of Tokyo campus in Tokyo, Japan on 

11-12 January 2010. 


(Nill) 



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goals) 


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II. Resource Mobilization Activities 

III. Update of Members’ Working Groups 



Thanh Nga Pham Dr 

Deputy chief of Apllied Research Division 

of National Center for Hydro-Meteorological 

Forecasting 

No. 4 Dang Thai Than Str.Hanoi, Vietnam. 

Tel: (84-4) 3 933 3130, Fax: (+84-4) 9 330 259, 

Mobile: (+84) 0985 290 972 

Email: ptnga@nchmf.gov.vn 


Lan Chau Nguyen Dr 

Deputy director of National Center for Hydro- 

Meteorological Forecasting 

No. 4 Dang Thai Than Str.Hanoi, Vietnam.

Tel: (84-4) 3 8 256 278, Fax: (+84-4) 9 330 

259, Mobile: (+84) 912 750 895 

Email: nglchau@yahoo.com or hoang239@fpt.vn 


Preparedness 

Nguyen Quang Minh 

Director of Management Center for Flood 

and Storm Control, Departmenr of Dike 

Management, Central Committee for Flood and 

Storm Control, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural 

Development, Vietnam. 

A4 Building, No. 4 Ngoc Ha Str., Ba Dinh, Hanoi, 

Vietnam. 

Fax: 84-4-7335701 e-mail: 

nvtienmard@yahoo.com. 

Telephone number:Office: 84-4-7335695 

Home: 84-4-9840742 


NGUYEN DAI KHANH 

Director of Science- Technology and International 

Coopertation Department of National Hydro- 

Meteorological Service of Viet Nam 

N4, Dang Thai Than Street, Ha 

Noi, Viet Nam 

Fax: 844 3 8260779/ 3 

8257740 e-mail: icd.hms@fpt. 

vn 

Telephone number: Office: 844 38244120 

Home: 844 3 8251059 


Nil 



2009 

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1.2 TYPHOON COMMITTEE 

SECRETARIAT (TCS) 



MAIN 

ACTIVITIES OF 

TCS IN 2010 

PARTICIPATION OF TCS REPRESENTATIVES IN 

INTERNATIONAL MEETINGS 

Since the 42 nd Session of TC, held in Singapore, 25- 

29 January 2010, the Typhoon Committee Secretariat 

was represented in the following events: 

· 66 th Session of ESCAP - Senior Officials 

segment - Incheon, Republic of Korea, 13-19 May 

2010 

The Secretary of TC, Mr. Olavo Rasquinho, attended 

the Senior Officials segment, from 13 up to 15 May, of 

the 66 th Session of ESCAP which was held in Incheon, 

Republic of Korea, on 13-19 May. The Secretary 

informed the Commission about the recent activities 

covering meteorology, hydrology and disaster risk 

reduction, including those to reduce urban flood 

risk in a changing climate. He also expressed his 

appreciation to the Government of Macao, China for 

continuing to host the Typhoon Committee Secretariat 

until 2014, and the Republic of Korea to host the 43 rd 

TC Session, in January 2011. 

· Meeting on Urban Flood Risk Management 

(UFRM) Project, in Bangkok, 19-20 July 2010 

The Secretary, the Hydrologist (Mr. Jinping Liu) and 

the Meteorologist (Mr. Leong Kai Hong, Derek) of 

TCS participated in a meeting on Urban Flood Risk 

Management (UFRM) Project, in Bangkok, 19-20 July. 

More than 30 participants took part in the meeting, 

including representatives from TC Members, ICHARM, 

JAXA, UNDP, UN/ISDR, UNOCHA, ADPC, ESCAP, 

WMO and TCS. 

· Asia-Pacific Water Minister’s Forum 

(APWMF) and Singapore International Water 

Week (SIWW) – Singapore, 28 June - 1 

July 2010 

Mr. Liu Jinping participated, on 28 June, in the Asia- 

Pacific Water Minister’s Forum (APWMF) and in the 

Singapore International Water Week (SIWW) from 

June 29 to July 1. These participations were helpful 

to promote TC’s visibility, and also to get information 

on the progresses and achievements in water area in 

the Asia-Pacific region. 

· Expert Group Meeting and Stakeholder 

Meeting on Mechanism on Drought Monitoring and 

Early Warning - Nanjing, China, 14-16 September 

2010 

The Secretary participated in the Expert Group 

Meeting on Mechanism on Drought Monitoring and 

Early Warning, (Nanjing, China – 14-15 September) 

and in the Stakeholder Meeting on the same issue 

(Nanjing, 16 September). The Expert Group Meeting 

was supposed to discuss the creation of a regional 

mechanism on Drought Monitoring and Early Warning, 

but the field of action was enlarged for also covering 

other natural weather-related disasters, such as 

typhoons and floods. The Executive Secretary of 

ESCAP, Dr. Noeleen Heyzer officially launched 

the Regional Cooperative Mechanism on Disaster 

Monitoring and Early Warning, Particularly Drought 

(the Mechanism) at the meeting, with the statement 

read by Mr. Xuan Zengpei, Chief of the Information 

and Communications Technology and Disaster 

Risk Reduction Division of ESCAP. The Secretary 

of TC, corresponding to a request from ESCAP to 

the representatives of countries and international 

organizations, offered the services of TCS to facilitate 

the first steps of the Secretariat of the Mechanism, 

upon authorization by the Committee. 

· Regional Workshop on ICT Applications for 

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Disaster Risk Reduction and Sustainable 

Economic Development – Astana, Kazakhstan, 

28-30 September 2010 

Mr. Jinping LIU, hydrologist of TCS participated 

in the Regional Workshop on ICT Application for 

Disaster Risk Reduction and Sustainable Economic 

Development which was held in Astana, Kazakhstan 

from 28-30 September 2010. At the Workshop, Mr. 

Liu introduced the TC Strategy on Flood Disaster Risk 

Reduction. The workshop expressed appreciation 

to Typhoon Committee for offering their support to 

this initiative on sub-regional network for flood risk 

reduction in Central Asia and neighboring countries. 

Mr. Liu was appointed temporarily the contact person 

of this network in TC. 

· First Anniversary and Workshop of AHMRI of 

NUIST - Nanjing, China, 15-16 October 2010 

Mr. Jinping LIU, taking the opportunity of being 

invited by WMO to participate at the 3 rd WMO 

International Conference on QPE/PQF and 

Hydrology, also participated at celebration of the first 

anniversary and attended a workshop of the Applied 

Hydrometeorological Research Institute (AHMRI) 

of the Nanjing University of Information Science & 

Technology (NUIST), on 15-16 October 2010. 

· 3 rd WMO International Conference on QPE/ 

PQF and Hydrology, Nanjing, China, 18-22 

October 2010 

The Meteorologist and Hydrologist of TCS, respectively 

Mr. Leong Kai Hong (Derek) and Mr. Jinping 

LIU, participated at the “Third WMO International 

Conference on Quantitative Precipitation Estimation 

(QPE) and Quantitative Precipitation Forecasting 

(QPF) and Hydrology” which was held in Nanjing, 

China, 18-22 October 2010. Mr. Jinping Liu was 

appointed to be a member of International Organizing 

Committee (IOC) of the conference and invited to 

give a presentation on “Hydrological Perspective on 

QPE/QPF”. He convened the session of Hydrologic 

Prediction and Coupled Hydrology-Atmosphere-Land 

Models, jointly with Dr. Zhiyu LIU, and he prepared 

the session summary report for the conference. 

· 5 th WGDRR Working Group Meeting, Incheon, 

Republic of Korea, 24-25 October 2010 

Mr. Olavo Rasquinho, Mr. Leong Kai Hong (Derek), Mr. 

Jinping Liu and Ms. Denise Lau, senior administrative 

secretary of TCS, participated at the 5 th DRR Working 

Group meeting, which was held in Incheon, Republic 

of Korea, on 24-25 October 2010, under invitation 

and support of NIDP-NEMA. The Secretary, on behalf 

of TC, gave a speech at the Opening Ceremony 

and chaired the session on “How to Cope with 

Strengthening Typhoons and Cyclones” and Mr. 

Liu gave a presentation on TC Urban Flood Risk 

Management project. The representatives of TCS also 

attended the opening ceremony of 4 th AMCDRR. 

· Regional High-Level Expert Group Meeting 

to Reduce Flood Disaster Risks in Pakistan - 

Islamabad, Pakistan, 9 -10 November 2010 

The Secretary participated in the Regional High- 

Level Expert Group Meeting to Reduce Flood Disaster 

Risks in Pakistan, which was jointly organized by 

ESCAP, United Nations Country Team (UNCT) and 

the Government of Pakistan, on 9 and 10 November 

2010, in Islamabad, Pakistan. The Secretary and the 

representative of UNICEF, Mr. Gary Ovington, were 

presenters at Session 5 - Education and Public 

Awareness. The Secretary, following a request 

from the organizers to all participants for actively 

cooperate with Pakistan regarding reducing flood 

risk, informed that Typhoon Committee is willing to 

share its experience on urban flood risk management 

and on other fields related to meteorology, hydrology 

and disaster risk reduction. Some participants were 

invited to visit the headquarters of the Pakistan 

Meteorological Department. 

Visit to the Pakistan Meteorological Department – 10 

November 2010 

· Seventh WMO International Workshop On 

Tropical Cyclones-IWTC-VII, La Réunion, France, 

15-20 November 2010 

Mr. Jinping LIU, hydrologist of TCS participated in the

Seventh International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones 

(IWTC-VII) which was held in La Réunion, France, on 

15 - 20 November 2010. As one of Rapporteurs of 

Keynote 3 – “TC precipitation (QPE/QPF) and related 

inland flood modeling”, he contributed to the part of 

the report related to hydrological modeling using QPE/ 

QPF and presented the progresses and challenges on 

QPE/QPF utilization in hydrology at the workshop. 

· Meeting of WMO RA-II (Asia) Working Group 

on Hydrology (WGH), Seoul, Republic of Korea, 

23-26 November 2010 

Mr. Jinping LIU participated in the meeting of WMO 

RA-II (Asia) Working Group on Hydrology (WGH), held 

in Seoul, Republic of Korea, from 23 to 26 November 

2010. Mr. Liu compiled the Report of UN ESCAP/WMO 

Typhoon Committee (TC) WGH Activities in 2010 and 

presented the activities that are being undertaken by 

TC WGH. Reviewing the work areas of both working 

groups, and based on his presentation, the RA II WGH 

agreed to cooperate in joint activities to the benefit of 

the Members of RA II and the Typhoon Committee. 

· Workshop on Space Application to Reduce 

Water-related Disaster Risk in Asia Bangkok, 

Thailand, 7-9 December 2010 

The Secretary, the Meteorologist and the Hydrologist 

of TCS participated in the Workshop on Space 

Application to Reduce Water-related Disaster Risk 

in Asia, held in Bangkok, Thailand, on 7-9 December 

2010, which was co-organized by ESCAP and the 

International Centre for Water Hazard and Risk 

Management (ICHARM), in partnership with the WMO 

and Typhoon Committee. It was supported by the 

Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) and the 

Asian Development Bank (ADB). The workshop was 

attended by experts not only from the TC Members 

but also from Bangladesh, Indonesia and Pakistan. 

It was also attended by experts from the Asian 

Disaster Reduction Centre (ADRC), Asian Institute of 

Technology (AIT), JAXA, Remote Sensing Technology 

Centre of Japan (RESTEC), Mekong River Commission 

(MRC), WMO, ICHARM, and Typhoon Committee. 

· Expert group meeting on Regional Cooperation 

Mechanisms on Space Applications for Disaster 

Management and Sustainable Development - 

Manila, Philippines, 15-16 December 2010. 

The Secretary of TC has taken part of this meeting by 

invitation of ESCAP. The main objectives consisted 

of reviewing and developing strategies for building 

regional cooperative mechanisms on effective access 

to and applications of space-based products and 



services for disaster management and sustainable 

development in the region and reviewing the terms 

of reference of the Mechanism (TOR). The TOR were 

discussed in detail so that they could be submitted to 

the Intergovernmental Consultative Committee (ICC) 

on the Regional Space Applications Programme for 

Sustainable Development. 

· 14 th Session of the Intergovernmental 

Consultative Committee (ICC) on the Regional 

Space Applications Programme for Sustainable 

Development (RESAP), Manila, Philippines, 16-17 

December 

The Intergovernmental Consultative Committee 

(ICC) approved the Terms of Reference of the 

“Regional Cooperative Mechanism on Disaster 

Monitoring and Early Warning, Particularly Drought” 

(“the Mechanism”) and discussed the hosting of 

the Secretariat of the Mechanism. There were the 

following offers from the participants for hosting 

the Secretariat: Asia Pacific Space Cooperation 

Organization (APSCO); Bangladesh; Philippines; 

Macao, China; Space & Upper Atmosphere Research 

Commission (SUPARCO) and HE (Pacific Islands 

Telecommunications Association (PITA). APSCO was 

selected for hosting the Secretariat of the Mechanism. 

· Visit to Pilot Cities of the UFRM Project (Hat 

Yai, Manila, Hanoi), 12-19 December 2010 

Mr. Jinping LIU, as representative of TC Task Force 

(TF) of the cross cutting Project on Urban Flood 

Risk Management (UFRM), participated in the TF 

Mission from December 12 to 19, 2010 with the 

project consultant Prof. Xiaotao CHENG contracted 

by UN ESCAP. The TF Mission had discussions with 

representatives from departments of meteorology, 

hydrology and disaster risk reduction (DRR) at various 

levels and conducted field surveys in 3 pilot cities: Hat 

Yai, Thailand; Manila, Philippines and Hanoi, Vietnam. 

. 

· Meeting on Best Track Consolidation, Hong 

Kong, China, 13-14 December 2010 

The Meteorologist of TCS, Mr. Leong Kai Hong 

(Derek), participated at the meeting on Best Track 

Consolidation, in Hong Kong, China, on 13-14 

December, which was also attended by representatives 

from HKO, RSMC Tokyo, JTWC, Shanghai Typhoon 

Institute and WMO. The methodology and procedures 

of the determination of best track were presented by 

the representatives of the attending organizations. 

Among other recommendations it was advised that 

communications amongst tropical cyclone centers 

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should be enhanced and that all centers should make 

their best endeavor to exchange relevant information 

and data to facilitate the determination of operational 

and post analysis best tracks. 

COORDINATION OF INTERNATIONAL 

ON-THE-JOB TRAINING COURSES AND 

WORKSHOPS 

TCS, together with the Working Groups, ESCAP and 

WMO, coordinated the preparation of the following 

events: 

· Forth On-the-job Training of Flood 

Forecasting - Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, 12 July- 

6 August 2010 

The 4 th On-the-Job training on Flood Forecasting with 

the title “Configuring an Operational Flood Forecasting 

System based on the Tank Model”, was held in Kuala 

Lumpur, Malaysia from 12 July to 6 August 2010. 

· Field Training on Hazard mapping of 

Sediment-Related Disasters - Zhuhai, China - 5 

September 2010 

The TCS has coordinated, together with SMG, the 

realization of the field training in Zhuhai, Chinese 

neighbor city of Macao, under the project “Hazard 

Mapping of Sediment-Related Disasters. The 

Hydrologist of TCS participated in this field training. 

· ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Integrated 

Workshop on “Urban Flood Risk Management in 

a Changing Climate: Sustainable and Adaptation 

Challenges” - Macao, China, 06-10 September 

2010 

The workshop was held in Macao, China, on 6-10 

September 2010, in cooperation with ESCAP, WMO, 

Macao Meteorological and Geophysical Bureau (SMG), 

KICT and IDI and was attended by 78 participants: 67 

from Typhoon Committee Members, 2 representatives 

from ESCAP, 1 from WMO, 1 from JAXA, 1 from Kyoto 

University, 1 from University of Philippines and 5 from 

TCS. All the TC Members were represented. 

· TRCG Roving Seminar 2010 - Ubon 

Ratchathani, Thailand, 30 November - 3 December 

2010 

The Roving Seminar 2010 was held in Ubon 

Ratchathani, Thailand on 30 Nov - 3 Dec, with the 

support of the Thai Meteorological Department and the 

Typhoon Committee Trust Fund, and It was attended, 

besides 15 local participants from Thailand, by 10 

participants from Cambodia; Hong Kong, China; Lao 

PDR; Macao, China; Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore 

and Viet Nam. The general theme was on tropical 

cyclone genesis and large scale interaction. 

COORDINATION OF FELLOWSHIP SCHEME 

For the year 2010, Typhoon Committee received three 

research fellowships offered by China Meteorological 

Administration, Hong Kong Observatory and Korea 

Meteorological Administration with the duration of the 

research activities ranged from 2 months to 3 months 

in the second half of the year. One meteorologist from 

Viet Nam and one from Thailand were accepted by 

CMA with the research topic on “TIPS Development”. 

One meteorologist from CMA attended the fellowship 

offered by HKO with the research topic on “Can the 

extreme rainfall associated with Typhoon Morakot 

(0908) happen in Hong Kong?” and one meteorologist 

from Viet Nam and other one from Thailand were 

accepted by KMA with the research topic on 

“Improvement of typhoon analysis and forecast 

system with KMA’s typhoon analysis and prediction 

system (TAPS)”.

2.1 REPORT ON INDIVIDUAL 

TROPICAL CYCLONES WHICH 

AFFECTEDMEMBERS OF THE 

TYPHOON COMMITTEE 

2.1 Overview 

This is a summary of the tropical cyclones that 

developed over the western North Pacific and the 

adjacent seas bounded by the Equator, 45 o N, 100 o E 

and 180 o E. In 2009, a total number of 22 tropical 

cyclones (TCs) with tropical storm (TS) intensity or 

higher formed in the western North Pacific and the 

South China Sea, of which 13 reached typhoon (TY) 

intensity, 3 at severe tropical storm (STS) intensity 

and 6 at tropical storm (TS) intensity. The total number 

of tropical cyclones with tropical storm intensity or 

higher is less than the 30 year average (1971 – 2000) 

of 26.7. 

There were no tropical cyclones developed over the 

western North Pacific and South China Sea from 

January to April. The first tropical cyclone for the year 

2009 occurred in May with the formation of Kujira. 

The most intense cyclone was Nida (0922) which had 

an estimated wind of 213 km/h and a minimum sealevel 

pressure of about 905 hPa when it was located 

over the western North Pacific about 370 km west of 

Guam. Typhoon Lupit (0920) was the tropical cyclone 

with the longest life span in 2009 which lasted for 

16.5 days. 

In 2009, nine tropical cyclones made landfall over 

coastal area of China, two crossed Taiwan, five 

affected Japan, twelve affected the Philippines and 

five made landfall over Vietnam. 

KUJIRA (0901) formed as a tropical depression 

off the south-eastern coast of Luzon on 1 May and 

moved generally northeastwards. It intensified into a 

tropical storm and then further intensified into a sever 

tropical storm on 3 May. Keeping its northeastwards 

track, it was upgraded into a typhoon the next day. It 

weakened into a severe tropical storm on 7 May and 

then a tropical storm on that afternoon. Kujira became 

an extra-tropical cyclone to the east of Japan later. 

CHAN-HOM (0902) formed as a tropical depression 

over the central part of South China Sea on 2 May 

and moved slowly northeastwards and intensified 


CHAPTER 2 - TROPICAL CYCLONES 2008 

TROPICAL CYCLONES IN 2009 

into a tropical storm on 3 May. Moving slowly 

northwards, Chan-hom further intensified into a 

severe tropical storm the next day. It turned to move 

east-northeastwards on 6 May and was upgraded 

into a typhoon. Chan-hom crossed Luzon Island soon 

after being downgraded into a sever tropical storm. 

It weakened into a tropical storm and further into a 

tropical depression over the sea east of the Philippines 

on 9 May, then turned to move to the north. Keeping 

its northerly track, it dissipated south of Okinawa on 

13 May. 

LINFA (0903) formed as a tropical depression over 

the northern part of South China Sea on 17 June and 

moved slowly. It intensified into a tropical storm the 

next day. Moving northwards, Linfa intensified into 

a severe tropical storm over the same waters on 19 

June. While moving northeastwards along the coast 

of southern China, it was weakening into a tropical 

depression on 22 June. It further weakened into an 

extra-tropical cyclone over the East China Sea on 23 

June. 

NANGKA(0904) formed as a tropical depression over 

the sea east of the Philippines on 22 June. Moving 

west-northwestwards, it intensified into a tropical 

storm the next day. Nangka crossed the central 

Philippines and entered the South China on 24 June. 

Continuing its north-northwesterly trajectory, Nangka 

made landfall over the coastal area east of Hong Kong 

and weakened into a tropical depression on 26 June 

and then dissipated later over southern China. 

SOUDELOR (0905) formed as a tropical depression 

off the northern coast of Luzon on 9 July and moved 

west-northwestwards across the northern part of 

South China Sea. It intensified into a tropical storm 

on 11 July. Continuing to move west-northwestwards, 

Soudelor crossed the northern tip of Leizhou 

Peninsula and weakened into a tropical depression on 

12 July. It made landfall over the coast of northern 

Viet Nam and then dissipated the next day. 

MOLAVE (0906) formed as a tropical depression 

over the sea east of the Philippines on 15 July and 

moved generally northwestwards. It intensified into 

a tropical storm the next day. While crossing the 

Luzon Strait on 17 July, it further intensified into a 

severe tropical storm and then a typhoon. Keeping 

its west-northwestwards track, it made landfall 

over Shenzhen in the late hour on 18 July. Molave 

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weakened rapidly into a tropical depression on 19 July 

and then dissipated over southern China later the day. 

GONI (0907) formed as a tropical depression over the 

sea east of the Philippines on 1 August, and moved 

generally westwards crossing the Luzon Island and 

entered the South China Sea the next morning, Then 

it turned to move northwestwards and intensified 

into a tropical storm on 3 August. Goni landed on 

the coast of Guangdong Province on 5 August and 

weakened into a tropical depression the next day. 

After crossing the Leizhou Peninsula, it gradually 

turned southwestwards and entered the Beibu Gulf 

where it intensified again into a tropical storm on 7 

August. While weakening into a tropical depression 

on 8 August, it turned southwestwards and gradually 

to move northeastwards. Later it dissipated over the 

northwestern part of the South China Sea on 10 

August. 

Morakot (0908) formed as a tropical depression 

over the western North Pacific on 2 August and 

initially moved eastwards. It soon intensified into a 

tropical cyclone on 3 August. It then turned to move 

westwards and intensified into severe tropical cyclone 

on 4 August and reached the typhoon intensity 

the next day. Morakot crossed Taiwan on 7 August 

and then weakened into a severe tropical storm. 

It gradually turned to move northwards and made 

landfall in Fujian Province on 9 August. It weakened 

further into a tropical storm and moved northwards 

across eastern China. Then it further weakened into 

a tropical depression the next day. Turning to move 

northeastwards, it passed over the Yellow Sea and 

transformed into an extra-tropical cyclone on 11 

August. 

ETAU (0909) formed as a tropical depression over the 

western North Pacific southwest of Iwoto Island on 

8 August and moved northwestwards. It intensified 

into a tropical storm the next day. It was gradually 

turning to move northeastwards on 10 August then 

eastwards and weakened into a tropical depression 

on 13 August after turning northwards. It then moved 

generally to the east and became an extra-tropical 

cyclone to the east of Japan. 

VAMCO (0910) formed as a tropical depression 

over the western North Pacific west of the Marshall 

Islands on 16 August and moved generally northnorthwestwards. 

It intensified first into a tropical 

storm and then a severe tropical storm on 18 August, 

and reached typhoon intensity the next day. It turned 

to move northwards on 23 August and then northnortheastwards. 

Vamco weakened into a severe 

tropical storm on 25 August and then became an 

extra-tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific 

to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula on 26 August. 

KROVANH (0911) formed as a tropical depression to 

the east of Mariana Islands on 28 August. Moving 

northwards, it intensified into a tropical storm that 

evening. Krovanh turned to move northwestwards 

and further intensified into a severe tropical storm on 

30 August. Gradually turning to move northeastwards, 

Krovanh traversed the eastern coast of Japan on 

31 August. Continuing its northeasterly trajectory, 

it weakened into a tropical storm and became an 

extra-tropical cyclone to the east of Hokkaido on 1 

September. 

DUJIAN (0912) formed as a tropical depression 

over the sea east of the Luzon on 2 September. At 

first it started to move westwards, it later turned to 

move eastwards and intensified into a tropical storm 

on 3 September. Turning to move northeastwards, 

it intensified further into a severe tropical storm on 

5 September. Dujian moved east-northeastwards 

across the western North Pacific to the south of 

Japan. It became an extra-tropical cyclone overt the 

western North Pacific to the east of Japan on 10 Sept. 

MUJIGAE (0913) formed as a tropical depression 

over the sea east of Luzon Island on 9 September 

and moved west-northwestwards. It intensified into a 

tropical storm over the northern part of South China 

Sea to the south of Hong Kong on 10 September. It 

turned to move westwards crossing the northern part 

of Hainan Island. Keeping its westerly track, Mujigae 

weakened into a tropical depression on 12 September 

after it made landfall over northern Viet Nam. It further 

weakened into an area of low pressure over northern 

Viet Nam. 

CHOI-WAN (0914) formed as tropical depression 

over the western North Pacific to the east of Guam 

on 12 September and moved west-northwestwards. 

It intensified into a tropical storm later at that day. 

It rapidly intensified into severe tropical storm then 

typhoon on 14 September after turning to move 

westwards. Choi-wan continued to move westnorthwestwards 

and gradually turning to move 

northeastwards. It weakened into a severe tropical 

storm, then rapidly transformed into an extra-tropical 

cyclone to the east of Japan on 20 September. 

KOPPU (0915) formed as a tropical depression off the 

northern coast of Luzon Island on 13 September and 

moved at first westwards. It intensified into a tropical 

storm as it turned to move west-northwestwards

on that day. Koppu intensified into severe tropical 

storm then typhoon rapidly the next day. It made 

landfall over western Guangdong on 15 September 

and weakened into a severe tropical storm and was 

rapidly downgraded to tropical depression intensity 

before dissipating over Guangxi later. 

KETSANA (0916) formed as a tropical depression 

over the western North Pacific east of the Philippines 

on 25 September and moved generally westwards. 

It intensified into a tropical storm the next day. 

After crossing the Philippines, Ketsana entered the 

South China later on that day. Ketsana intensified 

into a severe tropical storm and then further into a 

typhoon on 28 September. It made landfall on Viet 

Nam soon afterwards, then weakened into a severe 

tropical storm. It was rapidly downgraded into tropical 

depression intensity on 30 September and later on 

dissipated in Viet Nam. 

PARMA (0917) formed as a tropical depression 

over the western North Pacific south of Guam ON 

27 September and moved west-southwestwards. It 

intensified into a tropical storm and a severe tropical 

storm on 29 September as it turned to move westnorthwestwards. 

Maintaining its northwesterly track, 

it was upgraded into a typhoon on 30 September over 

the sea east of the Philippines. Parma crossed the 

northern part of Luzon on 3 October and remained 

lingering around this area for the following 6 days 

while diminishing its intensity. Parma weakened into 

a tropical depression over the South China Sea on 10 

October. While moving westwards, it re-intensified to 

tropical storm the next day. Turning to move westnorthwestwards, 

Parma crossed the Hainan Island 

and weakened into a tropical depression on 14 

October and dissipated later over Beibu Wan. 

MELOR (0918) formed as a tropical depression 

west of the Marshall Islands on 29 September and 

moved generally west-northwestwards. It intensified 

into tropical storm and a severe tropical storm the 

next day, then rapidly into a typhoon on 1 October. 

Maintaining its typhoon intensity and northwesterly 

track, Melor was gradually turning to move in the 

northeast direction. Melor made landfall over Honshu 

on 7 October with typhoon intensity, then it moved 

across the southern part of Honshu and transformed 

into an extra-tropical cyclone over the sea east of 

Hohshu on 8 October. It dissipated on 11 October. 

NEPARTAK (0919) formed as a tropical depression 

west of Saipan on 8 October and moved northnorthwestward. 

It intensified into a tropical storm 

the next day and turned to move northeastwards. 



Continuing its northeasterly track with accelerated 

speed, it became an extra-tropical cyclone on 14 

October. 

LUPIT (0920) formed as a tropical depression over 

the western North Pacific to the southeast of Guam 

on 14 October and moved west-northwestwards. It 

intensified into a tropical storm on 15 September and 

severe tropical storm then typhoon on 16 September. 

Lupit gradually turned to move slowly from northwards 

to generally westwards and weakened into a severe 

tropical storm on 23 October off the northeastern 

coast of Luzon. It then turned to move northeastward 

traversing the sea to the south of Japan. While 

accelerating along the northeasterly track, it became 

an extra-tropical cyclone on 27 October and dissipated 

in the area north of Aleutian Islands on 31 October. 

MIRINAE (0921) formed as a tropical depression over 

the western North Pacific east of Guam on 25 October 

and moved west-northwestwards while intensifying 

into tropical storm and severe tropical storm on 27 

October. It intensified further to a typhoon over the sea 

to the east of Luzon on 28 October. Mirinae crossed 

Luzon soon after weakening into a severe tropical 

storm on 30 October, and subsequently entered the 

central part of South China Sea. Moving westwards 

across the South China Sea, Mirinae weakened into 

a tropical storm and made landfall over the Viet Nam 

on 2 November, subsequently weakened further into 

a tropical depression and then dissipated. 

NIDA (0922) formed as a tropical depression over 

the western North Pacific to the southeast of Guam 

on 21 November and was moving slowly northwards. 

Turning to move northwestwards, Nida intensified into 

tropical storm on 23 November and a severe tropical 

storm on 24 November. Continuing its northwesterly 

track, Nida rapidly intensified into a typhoon. Nida was 

moving slowly again on 28 and 29 November. Then it 

moved west-northwestwards while weakening into a 

severe tropical storm on 1 December, a tropical storm 

on 2 December. It further weakened into a tropical 

depression on 3 December and dissipated over the 

western North Pacific northwest of Okinotorishima 

Islands. 

Of the 14 tropical cyclones affecting the Members 

of Typhoon Committee in 2009, disastrous events 

occurred in China, the Philippines and Vietnam. In 

China, there were totally 9 tropical cyclones landed 

on China. From the perspective of regional impacts, 

typhoon Morokot was most severe for its disastrous 

impacts in Taiwan with death toll more than 600 

people. It was reported that nearly 24 million people 

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were affected in China and the total direct economic 

loss was up to 3.3 billion US dollars. In the Philippines, 

more than 2.5 million families or 12 million people 

were affected, and 1148 died. The two most significant 

tropical cyclones in terms of amount of damages and 

number of causalities were Ketsana and Parma where 

a total number of 956 people died and economic 

damages reached 4.3 billion US dollars. In Viet Nam, 

308 people died and more than 1,300 injured and the 

total economic loss was up to 1.12 billion US dollars. 

There were no disastrous events due to the tropical 

cyclones were reported in the remaining Members of 

the Typhoon Committee in year 2009. List of tropical 

cyclones affecting the Members is shown on table 

2.1.2, and list of casualties and damage sustained by 

Members due to tropical cyclone is shown on table 

2.1.3.



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2.2. NARRATIVE REPORTS OF INDIVIDUAL TROPICAL CYCLONES WHICH 

AFFECTED MEMBERS OF THE TYPHOON COMMITTEE 

2.2.1 

KUJIRA (0901) 

1 May – 13 May 

KUJIRA (0901) formed as a tropical depression off the south-eastern coast of Luzon at 12 UTC on 1 May 

and moved generally northeastwards. It intensified into a tropical storm at 18 UTC on 2 May and then further 

intensified into a severe tropical storm at 12 UTC on 3 May. Keeping its northeastwards track, it was upgraded 

into a typhoon at 00 UTC the next day. Kujira attained the peak strength with maximum sustained wind of 157 

km/h and central pressure of 940 hPa at 18 UTC on 4 May. It weakened into a severe tropical storm on at 00 

UTC 7 May and then a tropical storm at 06 UTC on 7 May. Kujira became an extra-tropical cyclone at 18 UTC 

the same day over the sea east of Japan. 

While in the area proximate to the coast of Luzon, it was reported that Kujira caused the death of 28 people, one 

missing and 5 injured. About 84,000 families were affected and 2300 houses were destroyed and the economic 

damage worth about 27 million US dollars.

2.2.2 

CHAN-HOM (0902) 

2 – 13 June 



CHAN-HOM (0902) formed as a tropical depression over the central part of South China Sea at 18 UTC on 2 

May and moved slowly northeastwards and intensified into a tropical storm at 12 UTC on 3 May. Moving slowly 

northwards, Chan-hom further intensified into a severe tropical storm the next day at 18 UTC. It turned to move 

east-northeastwards and was upgraded into a typhoon at 18 UTC on 6 May reaching its peak strength with 

maximum sustained wind of 120 km/h with a central pressure of 975 hPa. Chan-hom crossed Luzon Island 

soon after being downgraded into a sever tropical storm at 12 UTC on 7 May. It weakened into a tropical storm 

at 06 UTC on 8 May and further into a tropical depression over the sea east of the Philippines at 00 UTC on 9 

May, then turned to move to the north. Keeping its northerly track, it dissipated over the area south of Okinawa 

at 06 UTC on 13 May. 

During the passage of Chan-hom over the Philippines, it was reported that Chan-hom caused the death of 

60 people, 53 injured and 13 missing. About 84,000 families were affected and 23,000 houses were totally 

destroyed. The economic loss was estimated around 26.1 million US dollars. 

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2.2.3 

LINFA (0903) 

17 – 30 June 

LINFA (0903) formed as a tropical depression over the northern part of South China Sea at 06 UTC on 17 

June and moved slowly. It intensified into a tropical storm at 00 UTC the next day. Moving northwards, Linfa 

intensified into a severe tropical storm over the same waters at 12 UTC on 19 June. It reached its peak strength 

with maximum sustained wind of111 km/h with a central pressure of 975 hPa at 06UTC on 20 May. While 

moving northeastwards along the coast of southern China, it was weakening into a tropical depression at 06 

UTC on 22 June. It further weakened into an extra-tropical cyclone over the East China Sea at 06UTC on 23 

June. Linfa passed along the southern coast of Japan while continuing to move east-northeastwards, then it 

dissipated at 18 UTC on 30 June. 

While traversing the coast of Fujian province, Linfa caused 6 people died, affected 230,000 people and the 

economic loss was estimated about 96 million US dollars.

2.2.4 

NANGKA (0904) 

22 – 27 June 



NANGKA(0904) formed as a tropical depression over the sea east of the Philippines at 12 UTC on 22 June. 

Moving west-northwestwards, it intensified into a tropical storm at 06 UTC on 23 June attaining its peak 

intensity with maximum sustained wind of 74 km/h with a central pressure of 994 hPa at 12 UTC on the same 

day . Nangka crossed the central Philippines and entered the South China on 24 June. Continuing its northnorthwesterly 

trajectory, Nangka made landfall over the coastal area east of Hong Kong and weakened into a 

tropical depression at 18 UTC on 26 June and then dissipated over southern China at 00 UTC on 27 June. 

10 people were killed during the passage of Nangka in the Philippines and the economic loss was estimated 

around 54,000 US dollars. 

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2.2.5 

SOUDELOR (0905) 

9 July – 13 July 

SOUDELOR (0905) formed as a tropical depression off the northern coast of Luzon at 18 UTC on 9 July and 

moved west-northwestwards across the northern part of South China Sea. It intensified into a tropical storm 

at 00 UTC on 11 July and attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained wind of 65 km/h with a central 

pressure of 992hPa at 06 UTC on the same day. Continuing to move west-northwestwards, Soudelor crossed 

the northern tip of Leizhou Peninsula and weakened into a tropical depression at 00 UTC on 12 July. It made 

landfall over the coast of northern Viet Nam and then dissipated at 00 UTC the next day. No significant damages 

were reported.

2.2.6 

MOLAVE (0906) 

15 July – 19 July 



MOLAVE (0906) formed as a tropical depression over the sea east of the Philippines at 00 UTC on 15 July 

and moved generally northwestwards. It intensified into a tropical storm at 06 UTC on 16 July. While crossing 

the Luzon Strait on 17 July, it further intensified into a severe tropical storm at 06 UTC on 17 July and then a 

typhoon at 18 UTC on the same day while reaching its peak intensity with maximum sustained wind of 120 km/h 

and a central pressure of 975 hPa. Keeping its west-northwestwards track, it made landfall over Shenzhen in 

the late hour on 18 July. Molave weakened rapidly into a sever tropical storm at 18 UTC on 18 July, a tropical 

storm 6 hours later and a tropical depression at 06 UTC on 19 July. It then dissipated over southern China at 

12 UTC that day. 

In China, the direct economic loss was estimated about 94 million US dollars and 5 people were reported dead. 

In the Philippines, it was reported that 4 people died and 2 missing and about 56,000 families were affected 

due to the passage of Molave close to Luzon. 

2009 

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2.2.7 

GONI (0907) 

1 August – 10 August 

GONI (0907) formed as a tropical depression over the sea east of the Philippines on at 06 UTC on 1 August, 

and moved generally westwards, crossing the Luzon Island and entered the South China Sea the next morning, 

Then it turned to move northwestwards and intensified into a tropical storm 12 UTC on 3 August. It reached its 

peak intensity with maximum sustained wind of 74 km/h and a central pressure of 990 hPa at 06UTC on 17 

July on 4 August. Goni landed on the coast of Guangdong Province on 5 August and weakened into a tropical 

depression at 06 UTC the next day. After crossing the Leizhou Peninsula, it gradually turned southwestwards 

and entered the Beibu Gulf where it intensified again into a tropical storm at 06 UTC on 7 August. While 

weakening into a tropical depression at 06 UTC on 8 August, it turned southwestwards and gradually to move 

northeastwards. Later it dissipated over the northwestern part of the South China Sea at 06 UTC on 10 August. 

Goni caused the death of 6 people and economic damage of 258 million US dollars in China. While in the 

Philippines, the economic loss was estimated about 2.7 million US dollars, more than 54,000 families were 

affected. 8 people died and 5 missing in the Philippines was also reported.

2.2.8 

MORAKOT (0908) 

24 July - 01 August 



Morakot (0908) formed as a tropical depression over the western North Pacific at 18 UTC on 2 August and 

initially moved eastwards. It soon intensified into a tropical cyclone at 00 UTC on 3 August. It then turned to 

move westwards and intensified into severe tropical cyclone at 12 UTC on 4 August and reached the typhoon 

intensity at 18 UTC on 5 August. It attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained wind of 139 km/h and a 

central pressure of 945 hPa at 15 UTC on 6 August. Morakot crossed Taiwan on 7 August and then weakened 

into a severe tropical storm at 00 UTC on 8 August. It gradually turned to move northwards and made landfall 

in Fujian Province on 9 August, while weakening further into a tropical storm at 18 UTC on the same day. It 

then moved northwards across eastern China and further weakened into a tropical depression at 18 UTC on 10 

August. Turning to move northeastwards, it passed over the Yellow Sea and transformed into an extra-tropical 

cyclone at 18 UTC and dissipated at 06 UTC on 11 August. 

More than 600 people were killed due to the enormous mudslides and severe flooding caused by the extreme 

rainfall associated with Morakot. The total economic damages in China and Taiwan was estimated about 2.44 

billion US dollars and more than 1.4 million people were affected 

2009 

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2.2.9 

ETAU (0909) 

8 August - 16 August 

ETAU (0909) formed as a tropical depression over the western North Pacific southwest of Iwoto Island at 00 

UTC on 8 August and moved northwestwards. It intensified into a tropical storm at 06 UTC the next day. Etau 

reached its peak intensity with maximum sustained wind of 74 km/h with a central pressure of 992 hPa at 00 

UTC on 10 August and was gradually turning to move northeastwards. It then turned eastwards and weakened 

into a tropical depression at 00 UTC on 13 August after turning northwards. It then moved generally to the east 

and became an extra-tropical cyclone at 12 UTC on 14 August. It was reported 27 were killed or unaccounted 

in Japan.

2.2.10 

VAMCO (0910) 

16 August - 26 August 



VAMCO (0910) formed as a tropical depression over the western North Pacific west of the Marshall Islands at 

12 UTC on 16 August and moved generally north-northwestwards. It intensified first into a tropical storm at 18 

UTC on 17 August, and then a severe tropical storm at 12 UTC on 18 August, and reached typhoon intensity 

at 00 UTC on 19 August. Vamco attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained wind of 167 km/h and a 

central pressure of 945 hPa at 00 UTC on 20 August. It turned to move northwards on 23 August and then 

north-northeastwards. Vamco weakened into a severe tropical storm at 12 UTC on 25 August and then became 

an extra-tropical cyclone over the western North Pacific to the east of Kamchatka Peninsula at 00 UTC on 26 

August. No significant damages were reported. 

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2.2.11 

KROVANH (0911) 

28 August - 2 September 

KROVANH (0911) formed as a tropical depression to the east of Mariana Islands at 00 UTC on 28 August. Moving 

northwards, it intensified into a tropical storm at 12 UTC that day. Krovanh turned to move northwestwards 

and further intensified into a severe tropical storm at 18 UTC on 29 August. It attained its peak intensity with 

maximum wind of 111 km/h and a central pressure of 975 hPa at 18 UTC on 30 Augus. Gradually turning to 

move northeastwards, Krovanh traversed the eastern coast of Japan on 31 August. Continuing its northeasterly 

trajectory, it weakened into a tropical storm at 21 UTC on 31 August and became an extra-tropical cyclone to 

the east of Hokkaido 1 September on 1 September. No significant damages were reportred.

2.2.12 

DUJUAN (0912) 

2 September – 11 September 



DUJIAN (0912) formed as a tropical depression over the sea east of the Luzon at 18 UTC on 2 September. At 

first it started to move westwards, it later turned to move eastwards and intensified into a tropical storm at 18 

UTC on 3 September. Turning to move northeastwards, it intensified further into a severe tropical storm at 00 

UTC on 5 September and attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained wind of 93 km/h and a central 

pressure of 980 hPa . Dujian moved east-northeastwards across the western North Pacific to the south of 

Japan. It became an extra-tropical cyclone overt the western North Pacific to the east of Japan at 06 UTC on 

10 Sept. No significant damages were reported. 

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2.2.13 

MUJIGAE (0913) 

9 – 12 September 

MUJIGAE (0913) formed as a tropical depression over the sea east of Luzon Island at 00 UTC on 9 September 

and moved west-northwestwards. It intensified into a tropical storm over the northern part of South China Sea 

to the south of Hong Kong at 00 UTC on 10 September while attaining its peak intensity with maximum wind of 

74 km/h and a central pressure of 994 hPa at 00 UTC on 11 September. It turned to move westwards crossing 

the northern part of Hainan Island. Keeping its westerly track, Mujigae weakened into a tropical depression at 

00 UTC on 12 September after it made landfall over northern Viet Nam. It further weakened into an area of low 

pressure over northern Viet Nam. The direct economic loss in China was estimated about 6 million US dollars.

2.2.14 

CHOI-WAN (0914) 




CHOI-WAN (0914) formed as tropical depression over the western North Pacific to the east of Guam at 00 

UTC on 12 September and moved west-northwestwards. It intensified into a tropical storm at 18 UTC that 

day. It rapidly intensified into severe tropical storm at 06 UTC on 13 September then typhoon at 00 UTC on 14 

September after turning to move westwards. It attained its peak intensity with maximum wind of 194 km/h and 

a central pressure of 915 hPa at 12 UTC on 15 September. Choi-wan continued to move west-northwestwards 

and gradually turning to move northeastwards. It weakened into a severe tropical storm at 06 UTC on 20 

September, then rapidly transformed into an extra-tropical cyclone to the east of Japan at 12 UTC on 20 

September. It dissipated at 00 UTC on 21 September. No significant damages were reported. 

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2.2.15 

KOPPU (0915) 


KOPPU (0915) formed as a tropical depression off the northern coast of Luzon Island at 00 UTC on 13 September 

and moved at first westwards. It intensified into a tropical storm at 18 UTC that day as it turned to move 

west-northwestwards. Koppu intensified into severe tropical storm at 06 UTC then typhoon at 18 UTC on 14 

September while attaining its peak intensity with maximum sustained wind of 120 km/h and a central pressure 

of 975 hPa. It made landfall over western Guangdong on 15 September and weakened into a severe tropical 

storm at 00 UTC, a tropical storm at 06 UTC and a tropical depression at 12 UTC on 15 September. Koppu 

dissipated over Guangxi at 00 UTC on 16 September. 

In China, it was reported the direct economic loss was estimated about 340 million US dollars and 11 people 

died.

2.2.16 

KETSANA (0916) 

25 September– 1 October 



KETSANA (0916) formed as a tropical depression over the western North Pacific east of the Philippines at 00 

UTC on 25 September and moved generally westwards. It intensified into a tropical storm at 00 UTC the next 

day. After crossing the Philippines, Ketsana entered the South China later on that day. Ketsana intensified into a 

severe tropical storm at 00 UTC on 27 September and then further into a typhoon at 06 UTC on 28 September 

while attaining its peak intensity with maximum sustained wind of 130 km/h and a central pressure of 960 hPa. 

It made landfall on Viet Nam soon afterwards, then weakened into a severe tropical storm at 12 UTC on 29 

September and a tropical storm 6 hours later. It was further downgraded into tropical depression intensity at 

06 UTC on 30 September and dissipated in Viet Nam at 00 UTC on 1 October. 

It was reported in Viet Nam, 162 people died, 14 missing and 616 injured. While in the Philippines, Ketsana 

caused significant causalities and economic damages and about 993,000 families were affected. 

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2.2.17 

PARMA (0917) 

27 September – 14 October 

PARMA (0917) formed as a tropical depression over the western North Pacific south of Guam at 18 UTC on 27 

September and moved west-southwestwards. It intensified into a tropical storm at 06 UTC and a severe tropical 

storm at 18 UTC on 29 September as it turned to move west-northwestwards. Maintaining its northwesterly 

track, it was upgraded into a typhoon at 06 UTC on 30 September over the sea east of the Philippines and 

attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained wind of 185 km/h and a central pressure of 930 hPa at 00 

UTC on 1 October. Parma crossed the northern part of Luzon on 3 October and remained lingering around this 

area for the following 6 days while diminishing its intensity. Parma weakened into a severe tropical storm at 

18 UTC on 3 October, a tropical storm at 18 UTC on 6 October and a tropical depression over the South China 

Sea at 00 UTC on 10 October. While moving westwards, it re-intensified to tropical storm at 00 UTC the next 

day. Turning to move west-northwestwards, Parma crossed the Hainan Island and weakened into a tropical 

depression at 00 UTC on 14 October and dissipated later over Beibu Wan at 18 UTC. 

There were more than 23 million people were affected in China and 7 people died and 10 missing. The economic 

loss was about 69 million US dollars. In the Philippines more than 950,000 families were affected. The combined 

economic loss due to Ketsana and Parma was estimated about 4.3 billion US dollars.

2.2.18 

MELOR (0918) 

29 September – 11 October 



MELOR (0918) formed as a tropical depression west of the Marshall Islands at 06 UTC on 29 September and 

moved generally west-northwestwards. It intensified into tropical storm at 00 UTC and a severe tropical storm 

at 18 UTC the next day, then rapidly into a typhoon at 00 UTC on 1 October. Melor attained its peak intensity with 

maximum sustained wind of 204 km/h and a central pressure of 910 hPa at 06 UTC on 4 October Maintaining 

its typhoon intensity and northwesterly track, Melor was gradually recurving to move in the northeast direction. 

Melor made landfall over Honshu on 7 October with typhoon intensity, then it moved across the southern part of 

Honshu and weakened into a sever tropical storm at 00 UTC on 8 October. It became an extra-tropical cyclone 

over the sea east of Hohshu at 12 UTC on 8 October and dissipated on at 06 UTC 11 October. It was reported 

that 4 people were killed and more than 100 injured in Japan. 

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2.2.19 

NEPARTAK (0919) 

8 – 15 October 

NEPARTAK (0919) formed as a tropical depression west of Saipan at 00 UTC on 8 October and moved northnorthwestward. 

It intensified into a tropical storm at 06 UTC the next day and turned to move northeastwards. 

Nepartak attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained wind of 83 km/h and a central pressure of 992 

hPa at 00UTC on 12 October. Continuing its northeasterly track with accelerated speed, it became an extratropical 

cyclone at 00 UTC on 14 October. No significant damages were reported.

2.2.20 

LUPIT (0920) 

14 – 31 October 



LUPIT (0920) formed as a tropical depression over the western North Pacific southeast of Guam at 12 UTC 

on 14 October and moved west-northwestwards. It intensified into a tropical storm at 12 UTC on 15 October 

and severe tropical storm at 06 UTC then typhoon at 18 UTC on 16 octoberr. It attained its peak intensity with 

maximum wind of 176 km/h and a central pressure of 930 hPa at 18 UTC on 18 October. Lupit gradually turned 

to move slowly from northwards to generally westwards and weakened into a severe tropical storm at 06 UTC 

on 23 October off the northeastern coast of Luzon. It then turned to move northeastward traversing the sea to 

the south of Japan. While accelerating along the northeasterly track, it became an extra-tropical cyclone at 00 

UTC on 27 October and dissipated in the area north of Aleutian Islands at 00 UTC on 31 October. No significant 

damages were reported. 

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2.2.21 

MIRINAE (0921) 

25 October – 3 November 

MIRINAE (0921) formed as a tropical depression over the western North Pacific east of Guam at 18 UTC on 

25 October and moved west-northwestwards while intensifying into a tropical storm at 06 UTC and a severe 

tropical storm at 18 UTC on 27 October. It intensified further to a typhoon over the sea to the east of Luzon at 

00UTC on 28 October and attained its peak intensity with maximum sustained wind of 148 km/h and a central 

pressure of 955 hPa at 12 UTC on 28 October. Mirinae crossed Luzon soon after weakening into a severe 

tropical storm at 12 UTC on 30 October, and subsequently entered the central part of South China Sea. Moving 

westwards across the South China Sea, Mirinae weakened into a tropical storm 12 UTC on 31 October and 

made landfall over the Viet Nam on 2 November. It subsequently weakened further into a tropical depression at 

18 UTC on 2 November and then dissipated at 00 UTC next day. 

In the Philippines more than 170,000 families were affected. The economic loss due to the passage of Mirinae 

was estimated about 10.4 million US dollars.

2.2.22 

NIDA (0922) 

21 November – 3 December 



NIDA (0922) formed as a tropical depression over the western North Pacific to the southeast of Guam at 18 UTC 

on 21 November and was moving slowly northwards. Turning to move northwestwards, Nida intensified into 

tropical storm at 12 UTC on 23 November and a severe tropical storm at 00 UTC on 24 November. Continuing 

its northwesterly track, Nida rapidly intensified into a typhoon 6 hours later and attained its peak intensity with 

the maximum sustained wind of 213 km/h and central pressure of 905 hPa at 18 UTC on 25 November. Nida 

was moving slowly again on 28 and 29 November. Then it moved west-northwestwards while weakening into a 

severe tropical storm at 18 UTC on 1 December, a tropical storm at 12 UTC on 2 December. It further weakened 

into a tropical depression at 00 UTC on 3 December and dissipated over the western North Pacific northwest 

of Okinotorishima Islands at 18 UTC that day. No significant damages were reported. 

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4.1 Introduction 


CHAPTER 4 - WMO TROPICAL CYCLONE NEWS 

WMO TROPICAL CYCLONES NEWS 2009 

The WMO Tropical Cyclone Programme carries 

out its activities in accordance with the guidance 

given by the Members through WMO Congress 

(Cg) and Executive Council (EC) to achieve the 

goals of the WMO Strategic Plan. The resolutions 

and decisions at the EC session in the reference 

year with particular relevance to the Programme 

are highlighted in the following 

.The sixty-first session of EC (EC-LXI, Geneva, 

June 2009) discussed implementation of the 

Tropical Cyclone Programme and provided 

guidance under the Expected Results 1, 6 and 9 

of the WMO Strategic Plan. 

With reference to advances in operational weather 

forecasts and warnings, EC-LXI reaffirmed the 

use of ensemble techniques including multimodel 

consensus forecasting by the national 

and regional tropical cyclone warning centres to 

further improve the application of NWP to tropical 

cyclone forecasting. It also underlined the 

dissemination of ensemble-based probabilistic 

guidance to improve the representation of forecast 

uncertainty which will be especially useful for 

disaster risk management in threatened areas. In 

this regard, the Council noted with satisfaction that 

the Technical Forum for EPS and the operational 

system for data processing and display was held 

in the Republic of Korea for the forecasters of 

Typhoon Committee members in May 2009. The 

Council recognized that such training workshops 

facilitate the use of ensemble-based products in 

forecaster- and user-friendly forms through a 

systematic and optimized approach. The Council 

therefore requested the Secretary-General to 

give high priority to the organization of such 

workshops in other regions for the best use of 

those products. 

As regards improving forecast of tropical 

cyclones and their impacts, the Council noted 

that the working environment of tropical cyclone 

forecasters has been changing rapidly in many 

NMHSs with increased availability of data from 

new observational systems as well as forecast 

products, including EPS from major NWP centres. 

In the meantime, demands are increasing in 

diverse user communities for the tropical cyclone 

warning service that could be more compliant to 

their disaster risk management activities. Given 

those circumstances, the Council recognized 

the need to enhance support measures for the 

forecasters to optimize the efficiency of warning 

services and develop operational strategies to 

meet the growing demands from the users. 

Accordingly, the Council requested the Secretary- 

General to revise and update the Global Guide 

to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting as early as 

possible with due consideration for the newly 

emerging requirements. It also underlined that 

the new Global Guide be linked to the Tropical 

Cyclone Forecaster’s website which will allow 

the operational forecasters for easier access to 

the up-to-date tools and reference materials for 

monitoring and forecasting of tropical cyclone 

track and intensity. 

Improvements of operational tropical cyclone 

forecasting and warning should be based on 

advances in research and technical developments 

on tropical cyclones. In this connection, the 

Council recognized that, while tropical cyclone 

forecasts have attained increasing accuracies 

in the track forecasting, they still rely heavily 

on the research and technology developments 

for improvement of forecasting tropical cyclone 

intensities, associated heavy rainfall and storm 

surge, as well as seasonal frequency of tropical 

cyclones. The Council therefore reiterated that 

high priority be continuously given to transferring 

from R&D into operational use aspects of 

forecasting of rapid changes of track and intensity 

of tropical cyclones and the impact of associated 

hazards during tropical cyclone landfall due 

to its significance for disaster prevention. To 

focus R&D activities and facilitate the transfer 

to operations, the Council encouraged active 

interaction between operational forecasters and 

researchers as a key to success. Noting that the 

research workshops and projects organized by 

TCP and WWRP provide excellent opportunities 

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in this regard, the Council urged the Secretary- 

General to take necessary actions to promote the 

involvement of operational forecasters in those 

events particularly the Seventh International 

Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC) (November 

2010) and the Second International Workshop on 

Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (October 

2009). 

In reference to its request to the Secretary- 

General to facilitate in consultation with UNESCO- 

IOC the development of storm surge watch 

schemes (SSWS), the Council was pleased 

to note that through collaborative efforts of 

JCOMM and TCP, immediate actions were taken 

by the five TCP regional bodies to assist their 

Members by establishing regionally coordinated 

frameworks for enhancing their capabilities to 

access and understand existing wave and storm 

surge products worldwide, and to make use 

of them for operational forecast and warning 

services. The Council requested the Secretary- 

General: (i) to keep Members informed of the 

developments and to continue; (ii) to give high 

priority to these activities, including facilitating 

and supporting the regional associations 

concerned in the development of SSWS; and (iii) 

to continue capacity-building activities related to 

use of SSWS guidance information. The Council 

urged Members concerned to take appropriate 

actions to improve storm surge and wave 

forecast and warning services within their areas 

of responsibility. 

In recognition of the impacts of the TCP/JCOMM 

training workshop series on storm surge and 

wave forecasting, the Council requested the 

Secretary-General to continue to support such 

training workshops in the future. 

With regard to the capacity building, the Council 

recognized that the developing countries, 

especially Small Island Developing States (SIDS) 

and the Least Developed Countries (LDCs) are 

increasingly more vulnerable to tropical cyclone 

impacts due to lack of human resources and 

a high degree of economic vulnerability. The 

Council reaffirmed the need for sustainable 

training efforts especially for SIDS and LDCs to 

allow them to achieve skills and competencies 

required for effective operational tropical cyclone 

forecasting and warnings for minimizing tropical 

cyclone disaster risks. In this regard, the Council 

noted that the continuing collaboration between 

the Tropical Cyclone Programme (TCP) and the 

Public Weather Services Programme has proved 

its effectiveness in integrated training of tropical 

cyclone forecasters in Regions I, II, IV and V. The 

Council also underlined the importance of the 

transfer of practical techniques to the forecasters 

through the attachment trainings at TC RSMCs. 

The Council requested the Secretariat to include 

forecasters from all affected regions in future 

training of this nature. 

4.2 Activities of TCP since TCAR-2008 

The TCP comprises two components: a general 

component concerned with methodology and 

transfer of technology and a regional component 

devoted to the activities of five regional tropical 

cyclone bodies. The updated lists of the Members 

of these bodies are shown in Appendix I. 

4.2.1 TCP events in the past year 

For the period from 1 December 2008, the 

following events were organized or co-sponsored 

under the Programme: 

- The 5th TCP/JCOMM Workshop on Storm 

Surge and Wave Forecasting (Melbourne, 

Australia, 1 - 5 December 2008); 

- ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, 41 st 

session (Chiang Mai, Thailand; 19 – 24 January 

2009); 

- Tropical Cyclone Operational Forecasting 

Training at RSMC New Delhi – Tropical Cyclone 

Centre (New Delhi, India, 9 to 20 February 2009); 

- WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones 

High Policy Working Group, the First Meeting 

(Muscat, Oman; 27 – 28 February 2009); 

- WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones, 

36 th session (Muscat, Oman; 2 – 6 March 2009); 

- The First International Conference on Indian 

Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change 

(Muscat, Oman; 8 – 11 March 2009); 

- RA IV Workshop on Hurricane Forecasting 

and Warning and Public Weather Services (Miami, 

USA; 23 March to 3 April, 2009); 

- RA IV Hurricane Committee 31 st session 

(Nassau, Bahamas, 20 – 24 April 2009); 

- The First ESCAR/WMO Typhoon Committee 

TRCG Technical Forum on EPS, Probabilistic 

Forecast and TIPS (Jeju Island, Republic of 

Korea; 12 – 15 May 2009);

- Attachment of Typhoon Forecasters from 

China and Malaysia for Typhoon Operational 

Forecasting Training at RSMC Tokyo-Typhoon 

Center (Tokyo, Japan, 22-31 July 2009); 

- The ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 

Integrated Workshop on Building Sustainability 

and Resilience in High Risk Area of the Typhoon 

Committee: Assessment and Action (Cebu, 

Philippines, 14-18 September 2009); 

- The Eighth Southern Hemisphere Training 

Course on Tropical Cyclones (Melbourne, 

Australia, 29 September - 9 October 2009); 

- Storm Surge Attachment Training at IIT 

(Delhi, India, 28 September - 10 October 2009); 

- The Second International Workshop on 

Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (Shanghai, 

China, 19-23 October 2009); 

- The Sixth Tropical Cyclone RSMCs/TCWCs 

Technical Coordination Meeting (Brisbane, 

Australia, 2-6 November 2009); 

- Attachment of two forecasters from Cook 

Islands and Samoa for the on-the-job training on 

operational analysis and forecasting of tropical 

cyclone at the RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone 

Centre (Fiji, 23 November – 4 December 2009). 

4.2.2 Activities under the general component 

The main activities under the general component 

continued to be directed towards the publication of 

manuals and reports, which provide information 

and guidance to Members to assist them in the 

increased application of scientific knowledge and 

technology for the improvement of warning and 

disaster prevention and preparedness systems 

corresponding Expected Results I and VI on 

enhanced capabilities of forecasting and warning 

service delivery and disaster risk reduction. 

Under this component, attention was also given 

to the broader aspects of training under the TCP. 

Priorities were given to capacity building to 

address the issue of sustainable development 

with emphases particularly on attachments of 

forecasters from developing countries at the 

different Regional Specialized Meteorological 

Centres (RSMCs) during the cyclone season and 

storm surge/wave experts at the Indian Institute 

of Technology in Kharagpur, India, a number of 

workshops and a joint training event in cooperation 

with the Public Weather Service Programme, 

and a number of Working Group (Committee) 



sessions co-joint with Disaster Risk Reduction 

Programme. These activities are in accordance 

with the programme’s objective to facilitate the 

transfer of knowledge and technology to improve 

the institutional efficiency of the NMHSs leading 

to the provision of better tropical cyclone track 

and intensity forecasts and associated flood and 

storm surge forecasts, and coordinated actions 

towards tropical cyclone disaster risk reduction. 

The TCP home page within the WMO Web site 

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/ 

index_en.html is continuously being updated. 

In addition, the TCP Forecaster’s website has 

started to develop for purpose of technology 

transfer under changing environment. 

WMO continued to be engaged in the services 

of Systems Engineering Australlia Pty Ltd (SEA) 

to undertake reviews and assessments that 

would lead to the recommendation of suitable 

conversion factors between the WMO 10-minute 

standard average wind and 1-minute, 2-minute 

and 3-minute “sustained” winds. The SEA 

submitted to the final report in January 2009, 

with one page executive summary for the final 

review at this meeting. This undertaking is trying 

to determine the conversion factors connecting 

the various wind averaging periods and its 

subsequent inclusion into the Global Guide to 

Tropical Cyclone Forecasting and the Operational 

Plans/Manual of the TC regional bodies. 

Tropical cyclone news for the WMO news website 

http://www.wmo.int/pages/mediacentre/news/ 

index_en.html will be continuously provided for 

facilitating media outreach. 

The Global Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting 

has been undertaking updating, and is expected 

to have the first reviewed version in January 

2010. After completion, it will be posted to the 

TCP Forecaster’s website for widespread access 

by forecasters and researchers around the globe. 

4.2.3 Activities under the regional component 

Many activities of the TCP were carried out under 

the regional component with a view to minimizing 

tropical cyclone disasters through close regional 

cooperation and coordination. Major emphasis 

was placed on improvement in the accuracy of 

the forecasts, provision of timely early warnings 

and on the establishment of necessary disaster 

preparedness measures. Each of the tropical 

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cyclone regional bodies has in place a formally 

adopted tropical cyclone operational plan or 

manual, aimed at ensuring the most effective 

tropical cyclone forecasting and warning system 

with existing facilities, through cooperative 

agreement on sharing of responsibilities and on 

coordinated activities within the respective region. 

Each of these bodies was giving attention to the 

implementation of their technical plan for future 

development of services to meet regional needs 

for upgrading forecasting and warning facilities 

and services for tropical cyclones and associated 

floods and storm surges, as well as for related 

disaster risk reduction measures and supporting 

activities in training and research. 

The detailed activities of regional bodies are 

described as below. 

4.2.3.1 ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 

· The Forty-first Session of the Committee 

was held in Chiang Mai, Thailand; 19 – 24 January 

2009. It was attended by 102 participants from 12 

out of 14 Members of the Typhoon Committee, 

namely: Cambodia; China; Hong Kong, China; 

Japan; Macao, China; Malaysia; Philippines; 

Republic of Korea; Singapore; Thailand; the 

Socialist Republic of Viet Nam; and the United 

States of America (USA) and 6 observers from the 

United Nations International Strategy for Disaster 

Reduction Secretariat (UN/ISDR), the Federal 

Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental 

Monitoring (ROSHHYDROMET) of the Russian 

Federation, the United Nations Development 

Programme (UNDP), the Commission of 

Atmospheric Sciences of WMO (CAS/WMO), the 

Joint Typhoon Warning Center of USA and the 

International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO). 

Representatives from the Economic and Social 

Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), 

the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) 

and Typhoon Committee Secretariat (TCS) also 

attended the session. 

· Decisions by the ESCAP/WMO Typhoon 

Committee at its 41st session can be found in its 

final report which will be available in WMO/TCP 

website. 

· The First ESCAR/WMO Typhoon Committee 

TRCG Technical Forum on EPS, Probabilistic 

Forecast and TIPS (Jeju Island, Republic of 

Korea; 12 – 15 May 2009). 

· The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) 

organized the “Attachment Training” at the RSMC 

Tokyo-Typhoon Center from 22 to 31 July 2009 

which was attended by two female forecasters 

from China and Malaysia. 

· The ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee 

Integrated Workshop on Building Sustainability 

and Resilience in High Risk Area of the Typhoon 

Committee: Assessment and Action was 

organized in Cebu, Philippines, from 14 to 18 

September 2009. 

· The Typhoon Committee Roving Seminar 

2009 was held in the WMO Regional Training 

Centre in the Nanjing University of Science and 

Technology from 16 to 19 November 2009. 

· Publications: the 2008 Typhoon Committee 

Annual Review (TCAR) was published in 

December 2009 and disseminated to the 

Members, ESCAP and WMO in electronic (CD- 

ROM) format. 

4.2.3.2 WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones 

· The thirty-sixth session of the WMO/ESCAP 

Panel on Tropical Cyclones was held in Muscat, 

Oman from 2 to 6 March 2009 in conjunction 

with the first meeting of the Panel’s High Policy 

Working Group (27 - 28 February 2009). 

The session was attended by 54 participants 

from eight Members of the Panel on Tropical 

Cyclones. It was also attended by observers from 

China, Islamic Republic of Iran, Saudi Arabia, IIT 

Delhi, UNEP, UNICEF, ICAO, EUMETSAT and 

representatives from WMO, ESCAP and TSU. 

· Decisions by the WMO/ESCAP Panel on 

Tropical Cyclones at its 36th session can be found 

in its final report which is available in WMO/TCP 

website. 

· Attachment of two forecasters from 

Bangladesh and Maldives was arranged by WMO 

and the RSMC New Delhi from 9 to 20 February 

2009 for the on-the-job training at the RSMC on 

operational analysis and forecasting of tropical 

cyclone. Also, attachment trainings for storm 

surge experts were organized in IIT from 28 

September – 10 October 2009 at the IIT Delhi in 

the implementation and running of a PC-based 

high-resolution storm surge model. 

· The First International Conference on Indian 

Ocean Tropical Cyclones and Climate Change was 

held in Muscat, Oman, from 8 – 11 March 2009.

It was attended by more than 50 international 

scientists from all over the globe. 

· Also, attachment trainings for storm 

surge experts were organized in IIT, from 

28 September to 10 October 2009, at the IIT Delhi 

in the implementation and running of a PC-based 

high-resolution storm surge model. 

4.2.3.3 RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee 

· The Eighth Southern Hemisphere Training 

Course on Tropical Cyclones was held in 

Melbourne, Australia, from 29 September to 9 

October 2009. Four participants from the region 

attended the workshop. 

4.2.3.4 RA IV Hurricane Committee 

· The Government of the USA hosted an 

RA IV Workshop on Hurricane Forecasting and 

Warning, and Public Weather Services in Miami, 

23 March to 3 April, 2009. It was organized by the 

NWS/NOAA Tropical Prediction Center/National 

Hurricane Center in cooperation with WMO (TCP 

Division and PWS Division). The workshop 

was conducted in English, and attended by 23 

participants from twelve Members of RA IV and 

three Members of RA II . And the next is in 

preparation, and plan to be held in Miami, USA, 

from 15 - 26 March 2010. 

· The thirty-first session of the Hurricane 

Committee was held in Nassau, Bahamas, from 

20 – 24 April 2009. The session was held back 

to back with the RA IV 15th session. It was 

attended by members of the RA IV Hurricane 

Committee and some regional and international 

organizations. 

· Decisions by the RA IV Hurricane Committee 

at its 30th session can be found in its final report 

which is available in WMO/TCP website. 

4.2.3.5 RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee 

· The Eighth Southern Hemisphere Training 

Course on Tropical Cyclones was held in 

Melbourne, Australia, from 29 September to 9 

October 2009. Eight participants from the region 

attended the workshop. 

· Attachment training of two forecasters from 

Cook Islands and Samoa was arranged by WMO 

and the RSMC Nadi Tropical Cyclone Centre, from 



23 November to 4 December 2009, for the onthe-job 

training at the RSMC Nadi on operational 

analysis and forecasting of tropical cyclones. 

4.2.3 Cooperation with other organizations 

There has been close cooperation and 

collaboration with the Economic and Social 

Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), 

the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction 

(ISDR) Secretariat, the Asian Disaster Reduction 

Center (ADRC), the International Federation of 

Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), 

the Joint WMO/IOC Technical Commission for 

Oceanography and Marine Meteorology (JCOMM), 

SOPAC and SPREP and other organizations, on a 

variety of matters of common concern. The main 

items include ESCAP’s co-sponsorship of the 

Typhoon Committee and the Panel on Tropical 

Cyclones, as well as the ISDR Secretariat and the 

ADRC’s involvement in the disaster risk reduction 

component of the TCP, in particular in the context 

of the ISDR. 

As part of the cooperation between WMO and 

the International Civil Aviation Organization 

(ICAO), TC RSMCs and one Tropical Cyclone 

Warning Centre (TCWC) are designated as ICAO 

Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centres (TCAC) by 

ICAO Regional Air Navigation Agreements. 

Those TCACs listed below provide specialized 

tropical cyclone warning services for the aviation 

community: 

TCAC Area(s) of responsibility 

Darwin South-eastern Indian Ocean, 

(Australia) South-western Pacific Ocean 

Honolulu 

(USA) 

Central North Pacific 

La Réunion 

(France) 

South-western Indian Ocean 

Miami (USA) 

North Atlantic, Caribbean, 

Eastern North Pacific 

Nadi (Fiji) Southern Pacific 

New Delhi 

(India) 

Tokyo (Japan) 

Bay of Bengal and the Arabian 

Sea 

Western North Pacific, including 

the South China Sea 

During the period from 2 to 31 March 2009, all the 

TCACs participated in a coordination session with 

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World Area Forecast Centres (WAFCs), which 

was conducted four times a day via internet, in 

response to the request from the World Area 

Forecast System Operations Group (WAFSOPSG) 

of ICAO. This session was aimed to ensure 

that there is no discrepancy in tropical cyclone 

information between WAFS SIGWX forecasts and 

TCAC advisories. it was also expected to promote 

the collaborative relationship between WMO/TCP 

and ICAO/WAFS. 

On a regional basis, WMO, through its Tropical 

Cyclone Programme, has fostered and maintained 

close collaboration and fruitful coordination with 

regional bodies concerned with disaster risk 

reduction issues, in particular with the Asian 

Disaster Preparedness Center (ADPC), the Asian 

Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC), the Caribbean 

Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA), 

and the South Pacific Regional Environment 

Programme (SPREP), and UN-ISDR Africa and 

Central America. 

4.2.4 Action programme for 2010 and 

beyond 

The TCP covers a wide range of activities 

which are of a continuing and long-term nature. 

Preceding sections of this report contain an 

overview of several of the ongoing activities and, 

in some instances, indications have been given of 

the plans for the period ahead. The main parts 

of the 2010 programme are set out below in 

summary form: 

General component 

(a) Follow-up activities on the WMO Strategic 

Plan; 

(b) Updating of the TCP home page within 

the WMO Web site, and the Tropical Cyclone 

Forecaster web site which will serve as a 

source for tropical cyclone forecasters to obtain 

forecasting and analytical tools and techniques 

for tropical cyclone development, motion, 

intensification, and wind distribution, and so on; 

(c) Attachment of forecasters to all six TC 

RSMCs during the cyclone season; 

(d) Continued support and coordination to 

update the Global Guide on Tropical Cyclone 

Forecasting in response to recommendation from 

the IWTCs. The web version of the Guide is due 

to be completed in November 2010; 

(e) Coordination of the services and activities 

of six TC RSMCs (Miami, Tokyo, Honolulu, New 

Delhi, La Réunion and Nadi) and TCWCs (Darwin, 

Perth, Brisbane, Wellington, Port Moresby and 

Jakarta) with a view to improving regional 

services of the centers. Review of the global 

standards in forecasting techniques and warning 

services including those for data exchange and 

forecasts verification. 

(f) Outreach to media and general public by 

posting tropical cyclone information to the WMO 

news website, and responding by email to 

inquiries related to tropical cyclones around the 

globe. 

(g) Development and establishment of a Storm 

Surge Watch Scheme in each of the tropical 

cyclone regional bodies. 

(h) Implementation of the Typhoon Landfall 

Forecast Demonstration Project in East China, 

which was recommended to establish during 

the WMO Second International Workshop on 

Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP- 

II) in Shanghai, China, 19-23 October 2009, 

and adopted at the Fifteenth Session of the 

Commission for Atmospheric Sciences (CAS XV) 

in Incheon, Republic of Korea, 18-25 November 

2009. 

Regional component 

Under the regional component, TCP will be 

mainly concerned with the activities undertaken 

by the five regional tropical cyclone bodies and 

the implementation of the decisions they make. 

A provisional schedule for the period from 

1 December 2009 to 30 November 2010 of 

meetings and training events within or related to 

the TCP, is given below: 

- ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee Small 

Meeting of Chairs of the Working Groups of 

Meteorology, Hydrology and Disaster Prevention 

(Macao, China; 14 –16 December 2009); 

- Training on Operational Tropical Cyclone 

Forecasting at RSMC Tropical Cyclone – New 

Delhi (RSMC New Delhi, India, from 1 to 12 

February 2010); 

- ESCAP/WMO Typhoon Committee, the Fortysecond 

Session (Singapore, 25 – 29 January 

2010); 

- WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones, 

the thirty-seventh session (Phuket, Thailand; 15 

– 19 February 2010);

- RA IV Hurricane Committee, Thirty-second 

session (Hamilton, Bermuda, 8 to 12 March 

2010); 

- The RA IV Workshop on Hurricane 

Forecasting and Warning and Public Weather 

Services (Miami, Florida, USA; 15 – 26 March 

2010); 

- RA V Tropical Cyclone Committee 13 th 

Session (Bali, Indonesia; April 2010); 

- The 7 th International Workshop on Tropical 

Cyclones (La Reunion, France; November 2010); 

- RA I Tropical Cyclone Committee, Nineteenth 

Session (Nairobi, Kenya, 20 – 24 September 

2010); 

- The Seventh International Workshop on 

Tropical Cyclones (La Réunion, France, 15 – 20 

November 2010); 

- RA I Training Course on Tropical Cyclones 

(La Réunion, France, 2 – 13 November 2010). 

Other Important inter-sessional activities will 

include: 

- As appropriate, preparation, editing, updating, 

publication and distribution of new editions or 

supplements to the Tropical Cyclone Operational 

Plans for the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea 

(English only), the South-West Indian Ocean 

(English and French), the South Pacific and the 

South-East Indian Ocean (English and French), 

the Hurricane Committee Region (English and 

Spanish) and the Operational Manual for the 

Typhoon Committee Area (English only); 

- Distribution of updated technical plans for 

further development of the Regional Cooperation 

Programmes of the five regional tropical cyclone 

bodies; 

- Publication and distribution of the 

“GUIDELINES FOR CONVERTING BETWEEN 

VARIOUS WIND AVERAGING PERIODS IN 

TROPICAL CYCLONE CONDITIONS” that was 

adopted at the Sixth Tropical Cyclone RSMCs/ 

TCWCs Technical Coordination Meeting was held 

in Brisbane, Australia, from 2 to 6 November 

2009; 

- Publication in hardcopy with limited quantity 

and in web format with free access of the “Global 

Guide to Tropical Cyclone Forecasting;” 

- Preparation and publication of the Typhoon 

Committee Annual Review for 2009 and 

Newsletter of 2009; 

- Preparation and publication of Panel on 



Tropical Cyclones Annual Review for 20010 and 

Panel News. 

and, in more general terms: 

- Activities for the implementation of of the 

Tropical Cyclone Programme section of the WMO 

Strategic Plan; 

- Implementation of activities within the 

framework of the International Strategy for 

Disaster Reduction (ISDR); 

- Continued activities for the implementation of 

the Regional Cooperation Programmes, Technical 

Plans and other work programmes of the regional 

tropical cyclone bodies; 

- Work of study groups, sub-groups and 

rapporteurs established by the regional tropical 

cyclone bodies, e.g. training and research 

activities in the meteorological component of 

the Typhoon Committee’s programme under the 

leadership of the Coordinator, typhoon Training 

and Research Coordinating Group (TRCG), 

and the rapporteur on updating of the Typhoon 

Committee Operational Manual, the Working 

Group on the Panel on Tropical Cyclones 

Coordinated Technical Plan, the implementation 

of satellite based telecommunications regional 

networks, and on regional activities on storm 

surges 

- action on further proposals made by the 

Fifteenth WMO Congress, the Executive Council, 

the Regional Associations concerned and the 

regional tropical cyclone bodies. 

______________________ 

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TCP REGIONAL BODIES 

APPENDIX I 

RA IV HURRICANE COMMITTEE RA V TROPICAL CYCLONE 

COMMITTEE FOR THE S. PACIFIC 

AND S.E. INDIAN OCEAN 

(26 Members) 

(17 Members) 

RA I TROPICAL CYCLONE 

COMMITTEE FOR THE 

WMO/ESCAP PANEL 

ON TROPICAL CYCLONES 

S.W. INDIAN OCEAN 

(15 Members) 

(8 Members) 

ESCAP/WMO TYPHOON 

COMMITTEE 

(14 Members) 

AUSTRALIA 

COOK ISLANDS 

FIJI@ FRENCH POLYNESIA* 

INDONESIA 

KIRIBATI 

MICRONESIA 

NEW CALEDONIA* 

NEW ZEALAND 

NIUE 

PAPUA NEW GUINEA 

SAMOA 

SOLOMON ISLANDS 

TONGA 

UNITED KINGDOM 

USA # 

VANUATU 

ANTIGUA & BARBUDA 

BAHAMAS 

BARBADOS 

BELIZE 

BRITISH CARIBBEAN TERRITORIES* 

CANADA 

COLOMBIA 

COSTA RICA 

CUBA 

DOMINICA 

DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 

EL SALVADOR 

FRANCE 

GUATEMALA 

HAITI 

HONDURAS 

JAMAICA 

MEXICO 

NETH. ANTILLES AND ARUBA* 

NICARAGUA 

PANAMA 

ST. LUCIA 

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO 

UK 

USA@ VENEZUELA 

BOTSWANA 

COMOROS 

FRANCE@ KENYA 

LESOTHO 

MADAGASCAR 

MALAWI 

MAURITIUS 

MOZAMBIQUE 

NAMIBIA 

REP. OF SOUTH AFRICA 

SEYCHELLES 

SWAZILAND 

UNITED REPUBLIC OF TANZANIA 

ZIMBABWE 

BANGLADESH 

INDIA@ MALDIVES 

MYANMAR 

OMAN 

PAKISTAN 

SRI LANKA 

THAILAND 

CAMBODIA 

CHINA 

DEM. PEOPLE’S REP. OF KOREA 

HONG KONG, CHINA* 

JAPAN@ LAO PDR 

MACAO, CHINA* 

MALAYSIA 

PHILIPPINES 

REPUBLIC OF KOREA 

SINGAPORE 

THAILAND 

USA 

VIET NAM, SOCIALIST REPUBLIC OF 

Non-Members of WMO (6): 

- EAST TIMOR 

- MARSHALL ISLANDS 

- NAURU 

- PALAU 

- TOKELAU 

- TUVALU 

@ RSMC Nadi - Tropical Cyclone Centre 

# RSMC Honolulu - Hurricane Centre 

@ RSMC Miami - Hurricane Centre 

@ RSMC La Réunion - Tropical Cyclone 

Centre 

@ RSMC-Tropical Cyclones-New Delhi 

@ RSMC Tokyo - Typhoon Center 

* Member Territory

Abstract 


CHAPTER 5 - RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP TECHNICAL REPORT 

RESEARCH FELLOWSHIP TECHNICAL REPORT 

In studying the performance of the Japan 

Meteorological Agency (JMA)’s ensemble prediction 

system (EPS) in the prediction of tropical cyclone 

(TC) intensity, it was found that the simple ensemble 

mean forecasts demonstrated skills in both short and 

medium range.However, the extent of intensity change 

as predicted by the EPS was in general smaller than 

observed. 

A procedure based on an artificial neural network 

(ANN) to calibrate the simple ensemble mean of EPS 

forecasts is presented in this paper.The procedure 

successfully reduced TC intensity forecast error 

in the first 120 hours by more than 50% and 20% 

respectively in terms of the root mean square errors 

of minimum pressure and maximum wind at the TC 

centre. 

Another procedure to post-process the probability 

forecast of TC intensity category, based on the rank 

histogram calibration method, is also presented. 

Results showed that the procedure could improve 

both the resolution and reliability of the forecasts. 

However, its benefit when compared with forecasts 

derived directly from the ANN-calibrated intensities 

was found to be only marginal. 


Use of the JMA Ensemble Prediction System 

for Tropical Cyclone Intensity Forecasting 

The prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity 

remains a challenge despite advances in numerical 

weather prediction (NWP) capability.Currently, the 

key methods in use are statistical models based 

primarily on climatology, persistence, and synopticenvironmental 

parameters (DeMaria and Kaplan, 

Chen Pei-yan 1 and Chan Sai-tick 2 

Shanghai Typhoon Institute, Shanghai, China 

Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong, China 

1994, 1999; Fitzpatrick, 1997; DeMaria et al., 2005; 

Knaff et al., 2003, 2005). 

For more effective applications of NWP-based 

guidance in operational weather forecasting, the 

ensemble technique is becoming increasingly 

popular such as in the prediction of precipitation and 

temperature.However, in terms of TC forecasting, 

the focus is still very much on track and motion 

prediction.So far, only Weber (2005) has presented 

a probabilistic prediction of TC intensity using a multimodel 

ensemble approach. 

In this study, we assess the performance of TC 

intensity forecasts obtained from the One-week 

Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) operated by 

the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), and 

develop procedures to calibrate the deterministic 

and probability forecasts derived from the system.In 

summary, the JMA EPS is a low-resolution version of 

the JMA’s Global Spectral Model (GSM) bearing the 

same dynamical framework and physical processes 

as GSM except for the horizontal resolution.It runs 

up to 9 days ahead for medium-range forecasting. 

The ensemble size including the control run is 25 

(expanded to 51 in 2006). The system specifications 

are as shown Table 1.More details can be found 

in Japan Meteorological Agency (2002).Under a 

cooperative research arrangement set up in 2004, 

the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) started receiving 

on a regular basis from JMA the TC position and 

intensity predictions from all members of the EPS to 

study their utilization and performance. 

Table 1 -Specifications of JMA’s One-week EPS 

EPS model JMA global spectral model 

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Frequency of 

operation 

Forecast range 216 hours 

Once every day at 12 

UTC 

Ensemble size 25 

Integration domain 

Horizontal resolution 

Global from surface to 0.4 

hPa 

T106, about 1.125 degree 

Guassian grid 

Vertical levels 40 

Perturbation 

generator 

Perturbed area 

Breeding of Growing 

Modes (BGM) method 

The Northern Hemisphere 

and the tropics (20S-90N) 

Section 2 of this paper introduces the datasets 

used in the study.In Section 3, the performance of 

the EPS intensity forecasts is discussed.Calibration 

of the deterministic forecasts derived from the EPS 

is presented in Section 4; while the probabilistic 

approach is explored in Section 5.Final conclusions 

and discussion are given in Section 6. 

2. Dataset 

JMA EPS TC data used in this study runs from 2003 

to 2005.The datasets contain forecasts of TC intensity, 

i.e. minimum pressure (in hPa) and maximum wind 

speed (in knots, or kt), at the TC centre from each 

of the 25 ensemble members.The EPS runs were 

initialized at 12 UTC, with the forecast data output at 6 

hourly intervals up to a maximum range of 216 hours. 

The number of samples in the JMA EPS TC datasets 

are shown in Fig. 1. 

Nu mb e r o f S a mp l e s 

300 

250 

200 

150 

100 

50 

0 

2003- 2004 ( Tr ai ni ng) 

2005 ( I ndependent ) 

0 24 48 72 96 120 144 168 192 216 

For ecas t Range ( hour ) 

Fig. 1 - Number of samples in the JMA EPS TC 

datasets in 2003-2005 

For the purpose of evaluating the JMA EPS 

performance in TC intensity forecasts in Section 3, 

HKO’s best track (BT) intensity data are taken as 

the “ground truth” in the verification process.For the 

purpose of calibrating the intensity forecasts using 

an artificial neural network (ANN) in Section 4, the 

samples in 2003-2004 are used as the training data, 

and the samples in 2005 are used as an independent 

dataset. 

3. Performance of model intensity forecasts 

Since the ensemble mean forecast tends to filter out 

the components of the forecast that are uncertain, in 

general it performs better than the control or individual 

member forecasts.Here we take the ensemble mean 

intensity (EMI), comprising the ensemble mean 

maximum wind speed (EMW) and ensemble mean 

minimum pressure (EMP), as the deterministic 

forecasts derived from the EPS.Table 2 summarizes 

the root mean square errors (RMSE) of EMW and 

EMP: 

Table 2 -RMSE of EMW and EMP for various forecast 

hours during 2003-2004 and 2005 (in parentheses). 

RMSE for EMW (kt) 

2003-2004 (2005) 

RMSE for 

EMP (hPa) 

2003-2004 

(2005) 

T+24 hour 19.2 (23.4) 35.0 (38.4) 

T+48 hour 22.7 (27.0) 39.1 (41.6) 

T+72 hour 25.7 (28.9) 42.6 (43.3) 

T+96 hour 26.6 (29.2) 43.7 (43.0) 

T+120 hour 26.3 (25.1) 42.5 (38.3) 

As evident in the mean error plot in Fig. 5, the EPS 

significantly under-estimated the TC intensity across 

the whole forecast range.The EMI errors can be 

attributed to two factors: initialization error and 

forecast error. 

a. Initialization error 

Given the sparse observations over the oceans, TC 

structure cannot be adequately resolved in global 

models.Many NWP centers employ a “bogussing” 

scheme to force a tropical cyclone vortex into 

the numerical analysis.For JMA, a TC bogus is 

constructed from a standard axisymmetric vortex for 

well-developed tropical cyclones based on several 

manually-analyzed parameters such as cyclone 

position, central pressure and radius of gale force 

wind (Ueno, 1995).Fig.2 shows the error of EMI at 

analysis time for the 2003-2005 dataset.In general,



the more intense the cyclone (x-axis), the larger 

are the initial EMI errors both in terms of wind and 

pressure (y-axis).The initial EMI minimum pressure is 

predominantly higher than the BT-analyzed minimum 

pressure for the whole range of TC intensities.For 

maximum wind, the EMI wind speeds in most cases 

are larger than the BT-analyzed values for TC of 

sub-typhoon strength, but are smaller than the BTanalyzed 

values for most typhoon cases. 

Fig. 2 - Initial errors of the ensemble mean intensity 

of the JMA EPS TC datasets in 2003-2005 

b. Forecast error 

Scatter diagrams of BT intensity changes and EMI 

intensity changes for all samples during 2003-2005 

are shown in Fig. 3.JMA EPS predictions demonstrate 

skills in forecasting the trend of TC intensity changes. 

Nevertheless, as shown by the bold line of linear 

regression against the perfect diagonal, the extent 

of changes has generally been under-predicted by 

the EPS, particularly for TC cases with significant 

weakening or intensification. 

(a) (b) 

Fig. 3 - Scatter diagram of BT intensity changes and 

EPS forecast intensity changes for all samples during 

2003-2005: (a) minimum pressure; (b) maximum 

wind. 

4. Calibration of deterministic forecasts 

If the initialization errors are corrected, the RMSE of 

EMW for 2005 at T+24, T+48, T+72, T+96, and T+120 

hour forecasts would become 16.5, 23.7, 27.9, 31.8, and 

32.4 kt respectively.As shown in Fig. 4(c), removing 

the initialization errors could reduce the EMW errors 

in the first 78 hours, whereas error reduction in EMP 

can be achieved all the way up to T+120 hour. 

To cater for the non-linearity of the forecast errors 

and the correlated nature of the two intensity 

parameters (minimum pressure and maximum wind 

speed), a commercially available statistical software 

with a radial basis function artificial neural network 

(ANN) (Broomhead and Lowe, 1988; Haykin, 1994) 

was used to devise a calibration mapping.Radial basis 

function networks consist of three layers: one for 

the inputs, one for the outputs, and a single hidden 

layer in between.Each unit in the hidden layer is 

represented by a radial basis function.The output 

units then complete the computation based on a 

weighted sum of results generated by all hidden units. 

The excellent approximation capabilities of radial 

basis function networks have been demonstrated by 

Park and Sandberg (1991), Poggio and Girosi (1990). 

In the construction of the ANN for TC intensity change, 

the following input parameters are used: (a) forecast 

hour; (b) initial BT minimum pressure; (c) initial BT 

maximum wind speed; (d) change of EMP during the 

forecast period concerned; and (e) change of EMW 

during the forecast period concerned.The BT initial 

intensity is used in order to remove the initialization 

errors.There are two output nodes in the ANN, namely 

BT-analysed change in minimum pressure and that in 

maximum wind speed. 

(a)(b) 

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(c) 

Fig. 4 - Verification results of EPS ensemble mean 

intensity forecasts calibrated with a radial basis 

function neural network for TCs in 2005: (a) change 

in BT minimum pressure vs. ANN-calibrated change 

wind speed vs. ANN-calibrated change in maximum wind speed; (c) RMSE of direct EPS output (EMW and 

in minimum pressure; (b) change in BT maximum 

EMP), calibrated intensity after removing theinitialization errors (MIEW and MIEP) from the direct EPS output, 

and calibrated ensemble mean intensity using ANN (ANNW and ANNP); and (d) percentage reduction in RMSE 

of the calibrated ensemble mean intensity using ANN. 

The verification results are given in Fig. 4.The ANN successfully reduced both the mean errors of EMP and 

EMW, especially in the short to medium-range where the bias reductions reached 36 hPa and 15 kt respectively 

(not shown).This successful bias reduction led to significant improvement in the RMSE as depicted in Fig. 4(c) 

and (d).The improvements in the first 120 hours exceeded 50% in terms of the RMSE of minimum pressure and 

over 20% in terms of the RMSE of maximum wind speed. 

By comparison, the performance of ANN at longer forecast range was far less satisfactory.The decrease in the 

skill of the underlying model could be one reason; the other reason could be due to insufficient training data



as the number of samples dropped rapidly at longer 

forecast range (Fig. 1). 

Besides, the calibrated intensity forecasts were still not 

quite able to forecast the rapid change of TC intensity 

(both deepening or weakening) as evident in Fig. 4(a) 

and (b).This could be attributed to model limitations in 

adequately resolving the TC structure with a coarse 

grid spacing of 1.125 degrees (i.e. around 120 km). 

5. Probabilistic approach 

A suite of methods have since been developed 

for calibrating probability forecasts derived from 

ensemble systems, such as multiple implementation 

of single-integration MOS equations (Erickson, 1996), 

ensemble dressing (Roulston and Smith, 2003) € and 

logistic regression methods (Hamill et al. 2004). 

Hamill and Colucci (1997, 1998) described a rank 

histogram calibration based on the reliability of past 

forecasts.This method has been applied to temperature 

and precipitation forecasting.In this study, the same 

approach was tested to post-process the probability 

forecast of TC intensity category, according to the 

following classification: 

• Low system (LOW) – maximum wind < 22 kt 

• Tropical Depression (TD) – 22 kt ≤ maximum 

wind < 34 kt 

• Tropical Storm (TS) – 34 kt ≤ maximum wind < 

48 kt 

• Severe Tropical Storm (STS) – 48 kt ≤ maximum 

wind < 64 kt 

• Typhoon (TY) – 64 kt ≤ maximum wind 

In view of the lack of samples and relatively 

unsatisfactory performance of the calibrated intensity 

forecasts in the longer forecast range as discussed 

in Section 4, probability forecasts as explored in this 

study will be confined to the first 120 hours. 

a. Methodology 

The rank histogram calibration method can be divided 

into two steps: bias correction and calibration. 

1) Bias correction 

Before constructing the rank histogram, each member 

forecast was first de-biased to remove any systematic 

errors in the maximum wind forecasts.Two different 

methods have been tested.The first method was 

simple bias removal.The correction (corr) to be made 

was determined as follows: 

……………….(1) 

where i is the forecast range (6, 12, ......, 120-h), n 

the number of samples, OBSW the BT maximum wind 

speed and EMW the ensemble mean of the maximum 

wind speed. 

Another method 

n 

corr was to correct all 

i = ∑(OBSWi, 

j − EMWi, j ) 

j =1 

member forecasts 

using the ANN 

approach described in Section 4.The mean errors 

of the direct EPS outputs and the corrected member 

forecasts in 2005 are plotted in Fig. 5. 

The mean errors after correction using both methods 

described above are much reduced, falling within -5 

to +5 kt for the whole forecast range. 

Fig. 5 - The mean errors of the maximum wind speed 

forecasts in 2005.DMO: the maximum wind speed as 

derived from the direct EPS outputs; ANN: correction 

by ANN described in Section 4; and SBR: correction 

by simple bias removal. 

2)Calibration 

The bias correction described above effectively 

removed the systematic biases but the corrected 

probability forecasts might still not be reliable. 

Following Hamill and Colucci (1997), the probability 

distribution was calibrated using the verification rank 

histogram.The rank histogram consisting of 24 bins 

de-limited by the 25 members’ forecasts of maximum 

wind were sorted in numerical order, with two 

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outlier bins placed at both ends.It was constructed by 

counting the number of verifying observations falling 

within each bin.The relative frequency in each bin was 

then used as the weight to calibrate the probability 

forecasts. 

Unlike temperature or precipitation forecasts in which 

each EPS member would always output a forecast, 

some members would not provide any forecast if the 

TC was forecast to dissipate.Besides, the verifying BT 

dataset from HKO did not contain any information for 

LOW (i.e. systems with maximum wind less than 22 kt). 

For cases when both forecast and observation were 

not available (i.e. EPS members correctly forecast 

the dissipation of the TC), the following procedures 

were adopted to assign the frequency: if there were 

m members in total not outputting a forecast, i.e. each 

of the first m bins represent a correct forecast, the 

frequency count will be equally assigned to these m 

bins.In other words, 1/m will be assigned to each of 

the m bins. 

Data from 2003-2004 were used to construct the rank 

histograms at various forecast range and the weights 

obtained were applied to calibrate the forecasts in 

2005.The rank histograms for T+24, T+72 and T+120 

hours forecasts are shown in Fig. 6.In general, the two 

outlier bins were most populated, and such tendency 

was much more prominent at shorter forecast range 

when the EPS spread was usually less. 

With the rank histograms constructed above, the 

probability of forecasts was calibrated according to 

the following procedures. 

Suppose V is the verifying TC intensity and W={w 1, 

w 2, …, w 26 } represent the verification rank histogram 

distribution, i.e. the relative frequency for the first, 

second, …, and the 26th bin.For a forecast quantity q 

that are bounded by the ensemble (Smith 2001), the 

calibrated probability would be: 

……………(2) 

Here the tildes denote the de-biased ensemble 

members, and the parenthetical subscripts indicate 

ranking of the ensemble members in ascending order 

(i.e., x(i) ≤ x(i+1) ≤ x(i+2), etc.). 

For q larger or smaller than all 25 ensemble members, 

the probability represented in the outlier bins of the rank 

histogram (i.e., in w 1 and w 26 ) must be extrapolated in 

some way.Some assumptions are made here.First, 

the rank histogram probability is uniformly distributed 

between the lowest ensemble member and zero.The 

lower tail is then fitted by (Hamill and Colucci, 1997): 

…..……..(3) 

For the upper tail, we assume that the probability 

beyond the largest ensemble member follows the 

shape of Gaussian distribution fitted to the ensemble 

data: 

…………..(4) 

where Z indicates standardization by subtraction of 

the (de-biased) ensemble mean and dividing by the 

ensemble standard deviation, and represents the 

Gaussian cumulative distribution function. 

The probability of a TC reaching a certain TC intensity 

category can then be obtained by replacing q in Eqn 

(2) – (4) with the maximum wind thresholds of the 

respective TC intensity category. 

Fig. 6 - Rank histogram for the maximum wind 

forecasts based on samples in 2003 and 2004.Left 

column: bias correction by simple bias removal; right 

column: bias correction by ANN. 

b. Verification 

The Brier score, BS, (Wilks, 1995) verifies the 

probability forecast Y against the event observation



O (O = 1 if the event occurs, O = 0 if the event fails to 

occur) 

with BS ranging between 0 (perfect forecasts) and 

1(completely wrong forecasts). 

Fig. 7 compares the BS for direct model (EPS) output 

(DMO), forecasts after simple bias correction and 

calibration (CAL), forecasts after ANN bias correction 

only (ANN), and forecasts after ANN bias correction 

and calibration (ANN+CAL).Improvement in the 

probability forecast as a result of ANN+CAL was 

most prominent in the TS, STS and TY categories, 

especially in the first 72 

hours for the TY category 

as the model initialization 

errors were successfully corrected through ANN. 

For the LOW and TD categories, the advantage of 

applying ANN+CAL was not obvious, with BS even 

poorer than CAL in the longer range beyond T+72 

hour.This could be attributed to the tendency of ANN 

in under-estimating TC weakening (see Fig. 4(b)). 

In such cases, the systematic errors could have 

been more effectively removed through the simple 

bias removal procedure in CAL.As for comparison 

between ANN and ANN+CAL, the latter in general 

achieved marginally better BS for most categories 

except for the STS cases. 

Fig. 7 - Brier score of the probability forecasts of TC 

intensity in 2005: (a) LOW, (b) TD, (c) TS, (d) STS, 

(e) TY.DMO: direct EPS output; CAL: forecast after 

simple bias correction and calibration; ANN: forecast 

after bias correction by ANN only; ANN+CAL: forecast 

after bias correction by ANN and calibration. 

The BS can be decomposed into three components, 

namely reliability, resolution and uncertainty (Wilks, 

1995).Uncertainty depends only on the variability 

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of the observations and is therefore unrelated to 

the forecasts. The calibration procedures, however, 

should lead to better BS by improving the reliability 

or the resolution of the forecasts.As shown in the 

reliability diagrams at various forecast ranges for the 

TY category (Fig. 8), DMO had minimal resolution 

with the outcome of the high probabilities forecast 

not quite differentiable from the outcome of the low 

probabilities.On the other hand, ANN and ANN+CAL 

significantly improved the BS by increasing (i) the 

resolution, as illustrated in the deeper slopes of the 

calibrated curves (left panel) and the increased number 

of forecasts of higher probabilities (right panel); and 

(ii) the reliability of the probability forecasts, with the 

points of the calibrated curves on the left panel falling 

closer to the diagonal line, especially at the T+24 hour 

range. 

Fig. 8 - Reliability diagram of TC intensity probability 

forecasts based on TY category samples in 2005 (left 

panels): (a) T+24 hour; (c) T+48 hour; (e) T+72 hour. 

Number of samples in each probability class (right 

panels): (b) T+24 hour; (d) T+48 hour; (f) T+72 hour. 

DMO: direct EPS output; CAL: forecast after simple 

bias correction and calibration; ANN: forecast after 

ANN bias correction only; ANN+CAL: forecast after 

ANN bias correction and calibration. 

6. Conclusion



In studying the performance of JMA EPS in TC 

intensity forecasts, model initialization errors were 

found to be highly correlated with the initial intensity 

of the TC.The initial maximum wind speeds from 

direct EPS outputs were larger than the BT intensity 

values for most TCs of sub-typhoon strength, but 

became generally smaller than BT intensity values for 

typhoons.Although JMA EPS demonstrated skills in 

forecasting the trend of intensity changes, the extent 

of changes predicted was far less than actual. 

A procedure to calibrate the simple ensemble mean 

forecasts of JMA EPS using an ANN was developed. 

The procedure successfully reduced the forecast 

errors in the first 120 hours to a level with useful 

operational value.At the Hong Kong Observatory, the 

ANN calibration procedure has since been put into 

operational use in 2007. 

A further step to post-process the JMA EPS forecasts 

to generate more reliable probability forecasts 

of TC intensity category has also been explored. 

The Brier score analysis showed that the rank 

histogram calibration procedure could bring about 

noticeable improvements to the predicted intensity 

categorization of TS, STS and TY by enhancing 

both the resolution and reliability of the probability 

forecasts.While ANN+CAL was marginally the best 

performer in the independent verification based on 

2005 data, forecasts derived directly from the ANNcalibrated 

intensities delivered a comparable level of 

improvement in terms of forecast skill. 

Acknowledgments.We are most grateful to JMA for 

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providing the EPS data used in this study. 

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Ensemble reforecasting: Improving mediumrange 

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College Publishing Company, Inc, New York. 

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the Operational Numerical Weather Prediction 

at the Japan Meteorological Agency, Japan 

Meteorological Agency, Tokyo. 

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Gross, 2003: Statistical, 5-Day Tropical Cyclone 

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Persistence, Weather and Forecasting, 18 (1): 

80–92. 

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Prediction Scheme for the Western North Pacific, 

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1481-1497. 

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Atmospheric Science. Academic Press.



Study on 

Improvements in CMA’s Typhoon Track Prediction Model 

with Vortex Initialization Scheme 

Chatchai Chaiyasaen 1 and Nguyen Thi Minh Phuong 2 

1. Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) 

4353 Sukhumvit Road, Bangna, Bangkok 10260, Thailand 

Tel : 662-7445442, Fax : 662-7445441 

Mobile : 081 6461381 

Email : chatchai@tmd.go.th 

2. National Center for Hydrometeorological Forecast of Vietnam (VNCHMF) 

No 4 DANG THAI THAN, HANOI, VIETNAM. 

Email : ntmphuong@yahoo.com.au, ntmphuong@hotmail.com 

Abstract 

In China Meteorological Administration (CMA) a 

limited area operational numerical typhoon track 

prediction model (LTCM) with axisymmetric 

vortex bogus scheme was developed in 1992 and 

run operationally since 1996 . Model forecast 

results served as guidances for forecasters in 

issuing official typhoon track forecasts. Forecast 

verification for 1996 – 2002 showed that the 

mean position errors are approximately 180 km 

and above 350 km for +24h and +48h forecasts, 

respectively. 

Since that time both model and vortex initialization 

scheme are improved continuously for providing 

more accurate track forecasts. In 2004 in 

CMA the global spectral model (GSM) at T213 

resolution with 31 vertical levels (T213L31) named 

GMTTP (Global Model for TC Track Prediction) 

had been run operationally in paralell with LTCM. 

The new forecast system included a number of 

improvements in both model and bogus vortex 

initialization scheme with vortex asymmetric 

component that provided significant improvements 

in tropical storm (TS) track prediction accuracy. 

The performance of GMTTP for 2004 – 2005 

is better than those of LTCM in 14.7%, 14.0%, 

16.2% and 23.5% for +12h, +24h, +36h and +48h 

forecasts respectively. This TS prediction system 

GMTTP was put on operational use in 2004 to 

replace LTCM. Next improvement in CMA’s TS 

prediction system is improving vortex initialization 

by vortex modification and data simulation system 

upgrading (the OI system was replaced by the SSI 

3-Dvar system). The track forecast verification for 

2006 showed that the improved forecast system 

reduced average track errors of 12 - 23% in +12h 

to 120h forecast periods. The last system had been 

put into operational work in 2007 sofar. 

This study aimed firstly to analyze some model’s 

typhoon track results for typhoons of complicated 

tracks in Western North Pacific (WNPAC) during 

2006 – 2009 to consider model forecast skills and 

to find model’s systematic errors and bias, then 

conducting numerical experiments for typhoon 

(TY) PARMA (0917) and TY FENGSHEN (0806) 

by using CMA’s global spectral model and vortex 

initialization scheme with last improvements and 

modifications. 


Since 1992 in China Meteorological Administration 

(CMA) a limited area operational numerical 

typhoon track prediction model (LTCM) with 

axisymmetric vortex bogus scheme was 

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developed and run operationally since 1996. 

Model track forecast results served as reliable 

guidances for forecasters in issuing official 

typhoon track forecasts. 

At the same time both model and vortex 

initialization scheme are improved continuously 

for providing more accurate track forecasts. 

The second generation TS track prediction system 

that included both significant improvements 

in model physics, model parameterization and 

resolution as well as in vortex initialization 

scheme with vortex asymmetric component 

named GMTTP had been put into operation use 

since 2004. Optimum interpolation (OI) is used 

for data assimilation scheme. GMTTP provided 

encouraging improvements in average track 

errors for 2006 and 2007. 

In the CMA’s third generation TS track prediction 

system the vortex modification is made in vortex 

initialization scheme that corrects TC intensity by 

empirical sea level pressure distribution formula 

and gradient wind relation so that TS in initial data 

is similar to the observed one in term of maximum 

sustained wind and central minimum pressure. 

3DVAR technique is used for data assimilation 

scheme. The third generation GTCMA was put 

into operation in parallel since 2007 and showed 

surprisingly improvements in track forecasts. 

This study was carried out for analysing CMA’s 

TS track results for TYs of complicated tracks 

in WNPAC during 2006 – 2009 to find model’s 

forecast skill, systematic errors and bias, then 

conducting numerical experiments for TY 

PARMA (0917) and TY FENGSHEN (0806) by 

using model and vortex initialization scheme with 

last improvements and modifications. 

This paper is constructed as follows. Section 2 

gives brief description of CMA’s global spectral 

model and its characteristics. In section 3 vortex 

initialization scheme, which plays very important 

role in TS track forecast is described with its 

improvements during different periods. In section 

4 analysis of model track forecasts for TYs of 

complicated tracks in WNPAC during 2006 – 

2009 was carried out to find model’s systematic 

errors and bias. Then, numerical experiments 

conducted for TY PARMA (0917) and TY 

FENGSHEN (0806) by using model and vortex 


modifications are presented in section 5. Finally, 

discussions, comments and conclusion are given 

in last section. 

2. Model description 

Recently, CMA’s numerical TY track prediction 

model is global spectral model of version 

T213L31, data assimilation scheme is 3DVAR with 

resolution of 60 km at equator. This global model 

runs 4 times per day when TS occurs in WNPAC 

and track forecasts are issued upto +120h with 

time intervals of 6 hours. 

3. Vortex initialization scheme 

To provide accurate TS track forecasts is very 

difficult task of hydrometeorological forecast 

centers. One of difficulties in TS track prediction 

is that TSs form and move in oceans where 

observation network is very sparse. Lack 

of observations leads to inaccuracy in TS 

performance in meteorological initial fields. One 

of the approaches to overcome this difficulty is 

to apply vortex initialization scheme to insert 

a bogus vortex into initial fields. Based on 

theoretical research and observational results 

on TS structure and motion during two previous 

decades vortex initialization scheme had been 

improved significantly. Many operational forecast 

centers used vortex initialization scheme 

successfully in TS prediction systems that provided 

surprisingly improvement in TS track forecasts, 

for example : the United Kingdom Meteorological 

Office (Heming and Radford, 1998), the Japan 

Meteorological Agency (JMA) (Ueno, 1989, 

1995), the National Center for Environmental 

Prediction (Surgi et la, 1998), the Australian 

Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) (Davidson et la, 

1993, Davidson and Weber, 2000), especially the 

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) 

(Kurihara et la, 1993, 1995, 1998). 

In National Center for Hydro Meteorological 

Forecast of Vietnam (VNCHMF) since 2000 

a barotropic TS prediction model with vortex



initialization scheme is used to predict TS track 

and landfall when a TS occurs in the South China 

Sea. Bogus vortex including both symmetric and 

asymmetric components is constructed based on 

the assumption that the storm motion is equal to 

the vector sum of the large scale environmental 

flow plus the vortex asymmetry (Smith and Ulrich, 

1990; Smith, 1991; Smith and Weber, 1993; Weber 

and Smith, 1995; Davidson and Weber, 2000). 

Numerical experiments have been conducted 

to select appropriate parameters in vortex 

initialization scheme for correctly presenting 

environmental flow, and the assumed vortex 

structure in the South China Sea. Experiments 

indicated that a scale of approximately 4 times the 

radius of outermost closed isobar is appropriate 

to preserve key components of the environmental 

flow. Also, systematic northwest bias in forecasted 

TC tracks caused by asymmetric component 

of bogus vortex is corrected. Above mentioned 

modifications brought significant improvement in 

accuracy of TC (TC) track forecasts near Vietnam 

coastline (Nguyen T. M. Phuong, 2003, 2004, 

2005, 2006). 

In CMA the limited area operational TS prediction 

system had been used since 1996. In this system 

the vortex initialization is similar to that developed 

by Iwasaki et la (1987), i.e the bogus vortex is an 

axi-symmetric, constructed by empirical methods 

(Ma et la, 2007). 

Since 2002 the second generation TS prediction 

system, named GMTTP had been used 

operationally. This is global spectral model version 

T213L31 that is more advanced in both dynamics 

and physics contents in comparison with the 

limited area operational TS prediction system 

(LTCM). Also, the vortex bogus scheme had been 

improved by including asymmetric component in 

the initial TC vortex. In new vortex initialization 

scheme the bogus vortex consists of axisymmetric 

component and asymmetric component. The first 

is constructed as above mentioned ( similar to 

Iwasaki et la 1987). The second is generated 

from the analysis field around the TC that is 

similar to the method described in Kurihara et la 

(1993, 1995). The implementation of this bogus 

scheme is as followings : (i) the axisymmetric 

vortex is removed from T213L31 analysis field, 

(ii) the axisymmetric vortex component is 

generated, (iii) the asymmetric vortex component 

is constructed, (iv) the axisymmetric and the 

asymmetric components are added to form 

asymmetric TC bogus vortex and (v) the bogus 

vortex is inserted back to analysis field. The 

flowchart of the second generation TS prediction 

system is given in Fig.1. This asymmetric vortex 

bogus scheme significantly improved accuracy 

of CMA’s model TS track forecasts, especially in 

the short ranges upto 72h. However, there exist 

two kinds of systematic errors in the second 

generation TS track prediction system : the first 

is the westward deflection when a TS moved to 

NE and the second is the N deflection when a TS 

moved to W or NW due to many different factors 

(Ma et la 2007). 

Schematic depiction of the TC 

prediction system at NMC/China 

Fig . 1 . Flowchart of of the CMA’s second 

generation TS prediction system (GTCMA) (Qu. 

et la, 2009) 

In 2006 in the CMA’s third generation TS track 

prediction system a new TS initialization scheme 

is build. This new scheme includes 3 procedures 

(1) When TC occurs at first time, inserting an 

appropriate vortex in the first guess fields, it is 

called vortex formation.The appropriate vortex 

2009 

281

282 

ESCAP/WMO 


is spinned up by the global model with the force 

of a bogus data. And then the first guess field 

including TC vortex is introduced into global data 

assimilation system-which generates analysis 

data that contains TC vortex as the model initial 

field. The flowchart of vortex formation is 

described in Fig.2. 

Fig.2. Flowchart of vortex formation 

In the next global forecast time, there must exist 

a vortex circulation in the first guess (that is the 

global model 6-hourly forecasts at the first time). 

Usually, the vortex is misplaced and weak against 

the analyzed TC data by forecasters, but its 

structure and circulation is “perfect” compared 

to bogus vortex. 

Two procedures need to be done for the weak 

and misplaced vortex in the first guess as follows: 

(2) Separate vortex from its environmental field, 

and move vortex to the correct position. It is called 

vortex relocation ( from NCEP) . 

(3) Correct the TC vortex intensity by empirical 

SLP distribution formula and gradient wind 

relation in order that the TC vortex in first guess 

is close to the observational TC data (such as 

central pressure, maximum sustained wind). It is 

called vortex modification. 

The flowchart of vortex relocation and 

modification is depicted in Fig.3. 

Fig.3. Flowchart of vortex relocation and 

modification 

In the next third, fourth, fifth … global forecast time, 

there always exist a TC vortex in the first guess. 

So vortex relocation and modification procedures 

as the same as step 2 and 3 are repeated for the 

TC vortex in the first guess till TC is death (Qu et 

la, 2009). 

The flowchart of the CMA’s whole TS prediction 

system is given in Fig.4.

First 



Fig.4. Flowchart of the CMA’s recent TS prediction 

system 

The new vortex initialization scheme has 

following advantages : 

• Model generated vortex is more 

consistent with model dynamics, and less 

adjustment needed once forecast starts 

• Dynamic structures of vortex in the first 

guess will be maintained in relocation 

procedure. 

• The procedure of TC initialization is 

finished before the analysis assimilation, 

So the first guess field is more consistent 

with observation data, and less data are 

rejected around TC. 

This new TS prediction system had been tested 

for 506 cases of 23 TSs with various intensities 

in WNPAC of 2006 to compare with the previous 

one. Track forecast verification indicated very 

encouraging improvement in accuracy of track 

forecasts issued by new system : there is a 

decrease in the average track error of 12-23% in 

the 12 to 120 hour time period. Fig. 5. showed 

the experiment results for 23 TSs in 2006. 

Mean Track Error (km) 

800 

700 

600 

500 

400 

300 

200 

100 

0 

bogus 

new 

6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96 102 108 114 120 

Forecast Time (hour) 

Fig.5. Experiment results for 23 TSs in 2006. (Qu 

et la, 2009) 

The new TC prediction system was put into 

parallel operation in 2007 TS season. 

4. Analysis of CMA typhoon model forecast 

results 

10 TYs with complicated tracks from 2006-2009 

are selected for analysing and the results are 

shown as followings : 

4.1. TY 0608 SAOMAI 

SAOMAI formed as tropical depression (TD) 

in sea water southeast of Guam on 00 UTC 

05/08/2006. It moved westnorthwestward and 

2009 

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ESCAP/WMO 


upgraded into TS in 12 hours later. Maintaining 

WNW motion SAOMAI strengthened into TY 

on 06 UTC 07/08/2006 and reached its peak 

intensity with center minimum pressure (Pmin) 

of 925 hPa and maximum sustained wind 

(Vmax) of 105 kts at 12 UTC 09/08/2010. On 

the next day 10/08/2006, SAOMAI made landfall 

in central China with TY intensity. Keeping the 

same track it weakened into TD and dissipated 

on 11/08/2006 and 12/08/2006. During its 

occurrence in WNPAC there were other two TCs 

(MARIA (0607) and BOPHA (0609)) that led to 

complicated interaction between 3 TCs. 

Track of TY SAOMAI (0608) and forecasts of 

CMA’s typhoon track prediction model were given 

in Fig.6 and verification for track forecasts of TY 

SAOMAI (0608) (position errors, km) was shown 

in Tab.1. 

As can be seen from the Fig.6 and Tab.1 although 

TY SAOMAI ‘s track maintained WNW direction 

persistently a number of model track forecasts 

has serious errors for all forecasting ranges 

from +12h to +72h, especially for model forecasts 

starting from initial time 2006080512 to 

2006080618. As for the latter initial times model 

track forecasts were improved for +12h and +24h 

periods. Overally, the northward bias in model 

forecasts is very obvious. 

Fig.6 . Track of TY SAOMAI (0608) and forecasts 

of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model. Red line 

is for observed track and green lines are for track 

forecasts at various initial times. 

Table 1. Verification for track forecasts of TY 

SAOMAI (0608) ( position errors, km)



Date and 

time 

00 

+12h +24h +36h +48h +60h +72h 

2006080512 0.0 133.9 238.7 353.1 497.4 633.0 781.6 

2006080518 0.0 164.6 201.7 318.2 431.1 513.0 628.1 

2006080600 10.8 177.2 234.0 349.8 492.1 668.5 889.3 

2006080606 10.7 98.2 207.3 324.5 475.6 568.8 698.6 

2006080612 0.0 100.4 176.1 304.3 409.7 516.2 537.9 

2006080618 0.0 107.1 227.6 347.9 441.6 596.2 678.8 

2006080700 15.4 74.2 91.2 128.7 180.4 241.8 348.9 

2006080706 33.5 109.4 126.4 130.6 206.6 290.4 378.5 

2006080712 0.0 66.1 75.3 101.7 189.5 230.2 306.6 

2006080718 10.4 22.2 39.1 48.8 63.9 104.4 107.9 

2006080800 11.1 76.0 112.2 111.7 163.2 250.7 303.0 

2006080806 0.0 33.4 80.4 101.9 171.9 222.4 212.0 

2006080812 11.1 92.9 165.2 249.0 399.6 474.2 523.3 

2006080818 42.4 69.1 140.7 216.3 318.9 328.9 286.0 

2006080900 15.1 80.4 144.9 182.2 260.3 144.5 - 

2006080906 0.0 60.0 91.1 125.8 169.8 101.7 - 

2006080912 10.0 91.1 155.7 233.7 156.0 - - 

2006080918 0.0 122.3 176.8 208.4 168.2 - - 

2006081000 11.1 89.2 140.1 101.2 - - - 

2006081006 0.0 54.0 87.0 141.7 - - - 

2006081012 0.0 77.3 87.5 - - - - 

2006081018 14.8 101.9 - - - - - 

2006081100 14.8 45.5 - - - - - 

2006081106 11.1 34.7 - - - - - 

2006081112 31.1 - - - - - - 

2006081118 58.6 - - - - - - 

FCST TIMES 26 24 21 20 18 16 

14 

Average 

(km) 

12.0 86.7 142.8 204.0 288.7 367.8 367.8 

Min (km) 0.0 22.2 39.1 48.8 63.9 101.7 107.9 

Max (km) 58.6 177.2 238.7 353.1 497.4 668.5 889.3 

4.2. TY 0622 DURIAN 

DURIAN formed as TD on 06 UTC 25/11/2006 

in sea water near Caroline Island. During its 

motion to west it gained intensity of TS at 12 UTC 

26/11/2006. Its intensity continuously increased 

upto TY at 18 UTC 28/11/2006 when its track 

changed to WNW. When DURIAN reached 

Philippines Island it obtained the peak intensity 

with Vmax of 105 kts and central Pmin of 915 hPa 

at 12 UTC 29/11/2006. It kept moving westward 

when passing Philippines Islands and going into 

the SCS in the same direction. On 03/12/2006 

DURIAN turned to SW and made landfall near 

HOCHIMINH City on 05/11/2006 with intensity 

of STS. During DURIAN’s occurrence it firstly 

moved WNW, then turned to W and SW. It was 

a special TY as formed in late time of TS season 

and reached super typhoon intensity and moving 

to SW direction to lower latitudes that was very 

rare. 

As can be seen from Fig.7 and Tab.2 model track 

forecasts from initial times from 2006112606 to 

2006112700 had strong north bias with large 

errors in +12h , +24h, +36h and +48h. Model 

track forecasts from latter innitial times had 

better performance in all forecast periods from 

+12h upto +72h. 

2009 

285

286 

ESCAP/WMO 


Fig.7. Track of TY DURIAN (0622) and forecasts 

of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model. Other 

explanations are similar to those in Fig.6 


DURIAN (0622) ( position errors, km) 

Date and time 00 +12h +24h +36h +48h +60h +72h 

2006112606 70.8 135.3 202.7 342.8 331.6 307.1 324.1 

2006112612 0.0 142.4 289.8 304.5 282.2 245.4 289.9 

2006112618 11.1 109.0 264.6 275.5 259.9 237.2 228.8 

2006112700 15.6 215.5 279.6 293.9 260.0 247.9 247.6 

2006112706 24.8 190.7 190.2 184.8 173.5 162.5 212.6 

2006112712 24.8 148.5 195.6 168.6 119.5 101.3 156.0 

2006112718 11.1 48.9 101.2 103.0 85.5 87.2 55.2 

2006112800 11.1 77.8 116.6 129.9 136.2 226.5 278.2 

2006112806 22.2 49.5 67.6 35.1 102.4 200.4 279.9 

2006112812 11.1 59.7 48.7 72.9 162.6 250.6 294.8 

2006112818 10.9 24.7 24.3 100.7 150.8 177.9 320.7 

2006112900 33.4 24.7 66.7 210.3 299.1 415.1 583.5 

2006112906 15.5 46.5 148.3 320.8 412.8 463.4 557.6 

2006112912 10.8 44.6 116.7 178.5 198.6 274.8 278.3 

2006112918 0.0 39.7 89.0 108.5 154.9 177.9 189.2 

2006113000 0.0 39.7 100.8 180.3 248.7 224.8 255.7 

2006113006 0.0 74.2 119.3 189.3 192.9 156.9 149.6 

2006113012 10.8 24.7 84.3 78.6 34.2 93.9 133.3 

2006113018 15.5 49.4 67.6 97.1 139.6 242.4 344.2 

2006120100 10.8 58.5 92.7 89.2 68.5 68.6 34.3 

2006120106 0.0 130.1 108.0 117.9 63.5 64.4 39.8 

2006120112 0.0 84.3 39.3 24.3 45.8 62.1 69.1 

2006120118 0.0 58.4 113.3 129.8 208.0 163.6 154.8 

2006120200 0.0 24.7 15.5 77.8 110.3 93.5 153.2 

2006120206 0.0 48.6 76.4 89.1 49.5 59.0 - 

2006120212 11.1 24.7 93.1 109.1 69.1 49.1 - 

2006120218 21.6 34.3 119.4 120.3 221.2 - - 

2006120300 0.0 74.2 78.6 22.2 99.1 - - 

2006120306 15.5 78.6 35.1 49.1 - - - 

2006120312 11.1 39.4 10.9 31.2 - - - 

2006120318 15.5 70.3 120.8 - - - - 

2006120400 11.1 56.7 143.2 - - - - 

2006120406 11.1 110.0 - - - - - 

2006120412 10.9 118.0 - - - - -



2006120418 0.0 21.9 - - - - - 

2006120500 0.0 - - - - - - 

FCST TIMES 36 34 32 30 28 26 24 

Average (km) 11.6 75.2 113.1 141.2 167.1 186.7 236.2 

Min (km) 0.0 21.9 10.9 22.2 34.2 49.1 34.3 

Max (km) 70.8 215.5 289.8 342.8 412.8 463.4 583.5 

4.3. TY 0722 PEIPAH 

PEIPAH formed as TD on sea water east of 

Philippines on 18 UTC 01/11/2007. Moving 

westward it upgraded into a TS at 12 UTC 

03/11/2007. Keeping westward motion it 

gained intensity of STS on 00 UTC 04/11/2007. 

It hit Luzon Island on the same day. Passing 

Philippines it slowded down and strengthened 

into a TY then reached its peak intensity of Vmax 

of 70 kts and central Pmin of 970 hPa at 12 UTC 

06/11/2007. Then it accelerated and turned to 

SW. Further PEIPAH weakened gradually when 

moving SW and dissipated as TD over water near 

the coastline of southern part of Vietnam. During 

05/11/2007 and 06/11/2010 PEIPAH moved very 

slowly. 

Overally, model forecasts for PEIPAH are good 

exept forecasts from initial times of 2007110418 

to 2007110518 when it moved very slowly. 

Fig.8. Track of TY PEIPAH (0722) and forecasts 


explanations are similar to those in Fig.6. 


PEIPAH (0722) ( position errors, km) 

2009 

287

288 

ESCAP/WMO 



2007110312 0.0 79.1 122.8 88.6 54.6 47.8 180.7 

2007110318 10.6 91.5 73.9 63.4 33.7 148.0 250.3 

2007110400 15.4 66.7 49.3 22.2 67.2 176.1 265.1 

2007110406 10.6 11.1 15.3 64.5 122.8 176.8 217.6 

2007110412 11.1 24.6 89.0 57.3 130.1 229.6 - 

2007110418 10.6 31.7 175.0 229.1 358.8 495.8 - 

2007110500 15.4 47.9 101.3 218.5 299.3 - - 

2007110506 11.1 110.9 153.4 262.3 307.4 - - 

2007110512 0.0 70.0 185.6 243.0 - - - 

2007110518 0.0 111.2 201.8 284.8 - - - 

2007110600 0.0 102.3 146.4 - - - 

2007110606 11.1 76.7 193.8 - - - - 

2007110612 15.3 87.3 - - - - - 

2007110618 11.1 154.4 - - - - - 

2007110700 11.1 - - - 

2007110706 15.3 - - - - 

2007110806 0.0 102.3 159.0 - - - - 

2007110812 0.0 100.6 - - - - - 

2007110818 11.1 281.3 - - - - - 

2007110900 0.0 - 

FCST TIMES 20 17 14 10 8 6 4 

Average (km) 8.0 91.2 128.2 153.4 171.7 171.7 228.4 

Min (km) 0.0 11.1 15.3 22.2 33.3 47.8 180.7 

Max (km) 15.4 281.3 201.8 284.8 358.3 495.8 265.1 

4.4. TY 0725 HAGIBIS 

HAGIBIS formed as TD at 18 UTC 18/11/2007. 

Moving westward it crossed southern part of 

Philippines into the South China Sea and reached 

TS intensity at 18 UTC 20/11/2007. Turning to 

WNW it strengthened into a TY and reached peak 

intensity with Vmax of 70 kts and central Pmin 

of 970 hPa at 06 UTC 22/11/2007. Approaching 

the Southern Vietnam coastline HAGIBIS slowed 

down its speed and was stationary near the coast 

line for one day. Then it abruptly turned back 

eastward of Vietnam coastline on 23/11/2007 

then weakened into a TS and hit Mindoro Island. 

It continuously weakened into TD and dissipated 

on water. This TC had unusual track : firstly it 

moved westward along southern periphery of 

subtropical high pressure ridge, then remained 

stationary near Vietnam coastline , after that 

it suddenly moved back to the east along the 

Northern periphery of equatorial high pressure 

ridge. 

CMA typhoon model issued forecasts from 18 

UTC 20/11/2007. Overally, model forecasts are 

good upto +48h exept the forecast starting from 

00 UTC 24/11/2007 (see Tab. 4) 

Fig.9. Track of TY HAGIBIS (0725) and forecasts 

of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model. Line 

with TS symbols is observed track, other lines 

are CMA’s model forecasts. 


HAGIBIS (0725) ( position errors, km)




2007112018 65.8 45.8 80.9 143.8 159.2 230.2 280.5 

2007112100 0.0 89.6 79.8 127.9 197.3 276.0 293.7 

2007112106 11.0 101.8 35.1 65.4 186.6 290.3 404.0 

2007112112 0.0 21.9 10.9 69.1 166.5 179.1 318.1 

2007112118 0.0 15.6 34.6 109.5 166.5 259.6 397.2 

2007112200 10.9 88.4 86.1 62.2 87.0 89.8 245.8 

2007112206 0.0 85.8 89.2 101.6 86.0 279.7 508.0 

2007112212 0.0 10.9 22.2 34.5 166.6 305.0 381.3 

2007112218 0.0 24.5 22.2 119.6 232.9 327.5 337.9 

2007112300 15.6 31.1 54.8 87.0 163.8 185.2 231.3 

2007112306 11.1 24.4 24.4 94.3 154.1 87.9 270.1 

2007112312 0.0 39.5 79.0 65.4 39.5 77.1 54.9 

2007112318 24.8 101.6 155.7 121.9 90.0 197.4 235.6 

2007112400 10.9 180.9 299.6 349.6 429.2 453.3 598.9 

2007112406 10.9 79.0 171.3 129.1 216.3 246.2 465.2 

2007112412 0.0 87.8 83.3 104.4 105.3 125.2 - 

2007112418 10.9 89.9 31.1 132.8 116.9 229.6 - 

2007112500 0.0 70.2 117.3 95.0 256.7 - - 

2007112506 0.0 39.6 186.2 276.1 470.1 - - 

2007112512 0.0 79.1 115.9 211.1 - - - 

2007112518 10.9 176.7 294.0 494.1 - - - 

2007112600 0.0 77.8 197.8 - - - - 

2007112606 15.6 79.1 249.0 - - - - 

2007112612 21.8 165.7 - - - - - 

2007112618 0.0 159.3 - - - - - 

2007112700 10.9 - - - - - - 

2007112706 24.7 - - - - - - 

FCST TIMES 27 26 25 24 23 22 21 

Average (km) 9.5 78.6 109.6 142.6 183.7 225.8 334.8 

Min (km) 0.0 10.9 10.9 34.5 39.5 77.1 54.9 

Max (km) 65.8 180.9 299.6 494.1 470.1 453.3 598.9 

4.5. TY 0806 FENGSHEN 

FENGSHEN formed in sea water as TD at 18 UTC 

17/06/2008. Moving WNW it intensified into a TS 

at 00 UTC 19/06/2008. Keeping WNW motion it 

rapidly gained intensity of TY on the same day . 

During passage through Philippines FENGSHEN 

turned to NW and reached the peak intensity 

with Vmax of 90 kts and center pressure of 

945 hPa at 00 UTC 21/06/2008. It turned to 

NNW direction on 00 UTC 23/06/2008 and hit 

Hongkong on 00 UTC 25/06/2008. After being 

downgraded to TD it turned to NE and dissipated 

over southern China land at 06 UTC 27/06/2008. 

This TY moved firstly WNW at the beginning of 

its occurrence then turned to NW for the rest 

of its life. Surprisingly, model forecasts and 

official forecasts from different forecast centers, 

including CMA for this TY had very large errors 

and very strong NE bias. 

2009 

289

290 

ESCAP/WMO 


Fig.10. Track of TY FENGSHEN (0806) and 

forecasts of CMA’s typhoon track prediction 

model. Other explanations are similar to those in 

Fig.6 


FENGSHEN (0806) ( position errors, km) 

4.6. TY 0816 MEKKHALA 

MEKKHALA formed as TD on 18 UTC 

27/09/2008 in SCS. Moving NW it gained 

intensity of TS on 00 UTC 29/09/2008. It 

reached the peak intensity with Vmax of 

45 kts and center pressure of 900 hPa at 

18 UTC 29/09/2008. Early on 30/09/2008 

MEKKHALA hit Central Vietnam coastline . 

Then it turned to WNW and weakened into a 

TD and moved to Laos dissipating at 18 UTC 

30/09/2008. This TS moved fast. 

As can be seen from Fig. 11 and Tab.6 the 

errors are large for forecast period +24h. 

Also, one model forecast had NW bias. 

Forecasts from different forecast centers 

failed to catch its fast motion. 

Date 

time 

and 00 +12h +24h +36h +48h +60h +72h 

2008061900 24.6 22.2 122.4 218.6 313.0 326.3 278.9 

2008061906 0.0 62.4 180.0 261.9 330.2 359.3 389.8 

2008061912 15.6 100.7 130.5 219.0 217.3 262.4 345.7 

2008061918 11.1 32.7 108.9 193.2 185.8 135.3 308.1 

2008062000 24.8 94.3 155.9 139.7 135.7 177.8 263.2 

2008062006 0.0 39.5 128.8 131.1 150.5 305.3 299.2 

2008062012 24.4 144.0 190.7 123.0 15.4 182.4 271.9 

2008062018 44.9 94.9 77.5 32.1 277.1 300.9 432.2 

2008062100 48.9 80.8 10.8 75.7 274.2 331.5 389.4 

2008062106 39.4 202.0 225.3 400.7 561.0 659.9 718.3 

2008062112 

2008062118 

2008062200 

2008062206 

2008062212 

2008062218 

2008062300 

2008062306 

2008062312 

2008062318 

34.4 

10.8 

10.8 

0.0 

34.0 

10.7 

0.0 

0.0 

0.0 

11.1 

87.5 

75.8 

164.4 

285.2 

224.1 

105.2 

101.1 

64.2 

33.3 

33.4 

119.7 

323.1 

299.0 

365.6 

435.7 

312.7 

168.6 

125.6 

136.1 

112.4 

230.0 

301.0 

376.7 

507.2 

- 

401.4 

290.7 

290.9 

308.1 

225.0 

276.4 

389.1 

497.6 

686.4 

- 

- 

452.1 

470.4 

386.5 

284.4 

346.7 

492.1 

745.0 

992.5 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

494.3 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

2008062400 

2008062406 

2008062412 

2008062418 

2008062500 

2008062506 

2008062512 

2008062518 

0.0 

11.1 

0.0 

15.2 

0.0 

22.2 

22.2 

11.1 

56.4 

95.5 

83.7 

107.7 

111.7 

75.3 

- 

- 

133.7 

133.0 

40.8 

143.2 

- 

- 

- 

- 

204.5 

203.7 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

- 

FCST TIMES 28 26 24 21 18 16 11 

Average (km) 15.3 99.1 174.2 244.5 327.9 419.8 381.0 

Min (km) 0.0 22.2 10.8 32.1 15.4 135.3 263.2 

Max (km) 48.9 285.2 435.7 507.2 686.4 992.5 718.3



Fig.11. Track of TY MEKKHALA (0816) and 



Fig.6. 


MEKKHALA (0816) ( position errors, km) 


2008092900 39.0 76.9 149.0 421.1 - - - 

2008092906 10.7 137.9 245.3 - - - - 

2008092912 33.4 43.8 288.3 - - - - 

2008092918 0.0 108.1 - - - - - 

2008093000 15.4 273.1 

2008093006 23.9 - - - - - - 

2008093012 133.0 - - - - - - 

FCST TIMES 7 5 3 1 - - - 

Average (km) 36.5 128.0 227.5 421.1 - - - 

Min (km) 0.0 43.8 149.0 421.1 - - - 

Max (km) 133.0 273.1 288.3 421.1 - - - 

4.7. TY 0819 MAYSAK 

MAYSAK formed as TD at 12 UTC 05/11/2008. 

It moved NW and crossed Philippines. It was 

upgraded to TS at 06 UTC 07/11/2008. Turning 

gradually to the North it gained peak intensity 

with Vmax of 50 kts and center pressure of 

985 hPa at 12 UTC 08/11/2008. Turning in 

clockwise direction it weakend into a TD on 12 

UTC 09/11/2008. After keeping southward track 

until around 00 UTC 12/11/2008 it turned sharply 

to the west and dissipated over sea near Vietnam 

coastline at 00 UTC 14/11/2008. 

MAYSAK had complicated track and slow motion 

that led to large forecast errors 

since initial time 2008110900 when 

it started moving to the South. 

Fig.12. Track of TY MAYSAK 

(0819) and forecasts of CMA’s 

typhoon track prediction model. 

Other explanations are similar to 

those in Fig.6. 

Table 7. Verification for track 

forecasts of TY MAYSAK (0819) 

( position errors, km) 

2009 

291

292 

ESCAP/WMO 



2008110712 0.0 88.6 74.6 202.2 170.4 164.8 277.3 

2008110718 15.5 79.2 164.4 278.0 223.5 292.7 388.9 

2008110800 15.4 45.7 169.1 101.3 123.3 279.8 - 

2008110806 11.1 35.0 54.6 108.7 400.9 557.5 - 

2008110812 35.0 131.2 77.6 169.4 339.7 - - 

2008110818 24.6 92.1 84.6 252.9 380.6 - - 

2008110900 15.4 73.9 202.1 317.9 - - - 

2008110906 10.6 102.3 217.9 333.8 - - - 

2008110912 10.6 107.9 228.9 - - - - 

2008110918 11.1 169.9 349.8 - - - - 

2008111000 0.0 190.3 - - - - - 

2008111006 0.0 259.4 - - - - - 

2008111012 10.8 - - - - - - 

2008111018 24.7 - - - - - - 

FCST TIMES 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 

Average (km) 13.2 114.6 162.4 220.5 273.1 323.7 333.1 

Min (km) 0.0 35.0 54.6 101.3 123.3 164.8 277.3 

Max (km) 35.0 259.4 349.8 333.8 400.9 557.5 388.9 

4.8. TS 0821 NOUL 

NOUL formed as TD near Philippines at 18 UTC 

14/11/2008. It moved WNW and obtained TS 

intensity at 12 UTC 16/11/2008. Maintaning WNW 

motion it reached peak intensity with Vmax of 40 

kts and center pressure of 994 hPa at 00 UTC 

17/11/2008. After hitting southern coastline of 

Vietnam it downgraded into a TD and dissipated 

on the same day 17/11/2008. 

As can be seen from Fig.13. and Tab.8 the model 

forecasts are good. However, official forecasts 

of different forecast centers failed to predict its 

soon landfall on 17/11/2008 when predicting it to 

move SW and go along coastline. 

Fig.13. Track of TS NOUL (0821) and forecasts 



Table 8. Verification for track forecasts of TS 

NOUL (0821) ( position errors, km) 

4.9. TY 0916 KETSANA



KETSANA formed as TD at 00 UTC 25/09/2009 

and moved mainly westward for the whole of 

its existence. It strengthened into TS intensity at 

00 UTC 26/09/2009 and crossed Luzon Island 

to the South China Sea. Maintaining westward 

motion in the South China Sea it was upgraded 

into TY at 06 UTC 28/09/2009 , reaching its 

maximum intensity with Vmax of 70 kts and 

central minimum of 960 hPa. Turning to SW 

direction KETSANA hit Central Vietnam almost 

with its maximum intensity on 29/09/2009 then 

weakened rapidly into a TD at 06 30/09/2009. 

As can be seen from Fig. 14 and Tab.9 the CMA’s 

track forecasts also had NW bias and forecasts 

from 2009092800 toward the landfall had large 

errors when TY KETSANA suddenly turned to 

SW then made landfall. 

Fig. 14. Track of TY KETSANA (0916) and 



Fig.6. 


KETSANA (0916) ( position errors, km) 

4.10. TY 0917 PARMA 

PARMA formed as TD south of Guam at 06 

UTC 27/09/2009. At 06 UTC 29/09/2009 it 

gained intensity of TS. It move WNW and further 

intensified into TY and reached its maximum 

intensity with Vmax of 100 kts and central 

pressure of 930 hPa in 18 hours later. It moved 

NW and hit Northern Luzon Island on 03/10/2009 

and remained in this area moving slowly back and 

forth for 6 days and weakened into TD. However, 

PARMA intensified again into a TS when moving 

westward into the South China Sea at 00 UTC 

10/10/2009. Moving WNW and crossing Hainan 

Island it suddenly gained rapid intensification with 

Vmax of 70 kts in the Gulf of Tonkin then it moved 

SW and weakened into a TD in sea water. This 

TS had very complicated track, intensification 

change and lasted for long time (about 2 weeks). 

Model track forecasts in Fig. 15 indicated 

obvious north bias for almost whole life time of 

TY PARMA, especially for the period before and 

after hitting Philippines Island. Two first forecasts 

starting from 2009092900 and 2009092906 

had large errors for +12h and +24h forecasts 

2009 


2009092518 24.7 162.6 210.9 171.3 156.0 111.2 125.8 

2009092600 11.1 194.6 108.2 46.3 61.7 67.9 132.3 

2009092606 92.2 162.2 147.3 167.1 111.7 92.6 88.8 

2009092612 35.0 86.4 78.1 86.2 181.6 320.7 431.9 

2009092618 15.4 54.8 39.6 39.0 72.2 193.8 305.8 

2009092700 15.4 11.1 46.3 86.9 242.2 325.3 414.8 

2009092706 15.4 63.0 44.5 35.0 143.4 175.1 - 

2009092712 22.2 64.2 30.8 154.1 196.4 274.4 - 

2009092718 10.7 54.6 92.5 162.5 178.2 - - 

2009092800 22.2 39.6 123.4 169.8 303.2 - - 

2009092806 0.0 81.9 207.1 310.6 - - - 

2009092812 15.4 135.3 208.0 310.6 - - - 

2009092818 11.1 100.6 239.4 - - - - 

2009092900 24.7 172.9 301.6 - - - - 

2009092906 0.0 284.0 - - - - - 

2009092912 53.6 259.7 - - - - - 

2009092918 39.1 - - - - - - 

2009093000 99.1 - - - - - - 

FCST TIMES 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 

Average (km) 29.1 120.5 134.1 145.0 164.7 195.1 249.9 

Min (km) 0.0 11.1 30.8 35.0 72.2 67.9 88.8 

Max (km) 99.1 284.0 301.6 310.6 303.2 325.3 431.9 

293

294 

ESCAP/WMO 


with 137.4 km and 224.7 km for the first initial 

time and 148.3 km and 200.4 km for the latter 

initial time respectively. Furthermore, in Tab. 10 

it can be seen that starting from 2009100406 to 

2009100500 when TY PARMA hit Philippines 

and slowed down its motion moving back and 

forth the model forecasts had large errors for 

time periods from +36h to +72h. When PARMA 

started to move into the Southern China Sea 

on 2009101012 the track forecasts also had big 

errors for forecast time +24h to +72h. 

Fig.15. Track of TY PARMA (0917) and forecasts 




PARMA (0917) ( position errors, km) 


2009092900 34.8 137.4 224.7 238.9 272.1 275.0 239.8 

2009092906 11.1 148.3 200.4 234.5 267.1 200.4 200.4 

2009092912 11.0 74.4 153.7 150.9 143.8 139.5 115.7 

2009092918 11.1 69.4 83.3 136.7 151.4 177.4 192.3 

2009093000 24.8 69.2 94.3 124.6 109.8 57.9 108.6 

2009093006 11.1 24.5 101.1 54.5 70.2 91.5 139.9 

2009093012 0.0 49.5 85.5 72.6 88.3 47.9 104.9 

2009093018 11.1 56.6 39.7 98.8 94.5 87.6 116.0 

2009100100 11.1 39.4 39.7 56.6 100.6 92.0 11.1 

2009100106 11.1 24.7 74.1 94.3 133.2 42.1 84.7 

2009100112 10.8 55.0 92.5 155.1 163.7 210.1 213.5 

2009100118 0.0 61.8 100.7 131.0 97.3 136.4 154.0 

2009100200 11.1 35.0 115.6 73.8 129.7 160.6 297.2 

2009100206 10.7 55.6 109.2 23.8 66.7 149.9 276.6 

2009100212 0.0 113.2 94.4 45.9 135.9 253.4 379.9 

2009100218 0.0 15.4 90.6 23.8 24.6 80.3 274.1 

2009100300 0.0 107.6 71.3 38.5 63.7 160.3 180.4 

2009100306 10.6 64.1 94.9 125.4 148.0 216.8 265.2 

2009100312 11.1 78.5 80.6 132.9 175.8 209.7 206.9 

2009100318 0.0 102.2 63.8 55.6 59.4 102.2 133.4 

2009100400 15.3 62.7 76.2 44.5 106.9 153.9 283.1 

2009100406 11.1 53.4 149.8 265.0 425.0 636.5 870.2 

2009100412 10.5 89.0 147.9 227.2 252.0 434.3 532.1 

2009100418 0.0 91.4 167.7 284.6 352.1 527.6 634.8 

2009100500 10.4 38.4 151.6 275.8 476.9 629.9 694.0 

2009100506 0.0 11.1 76.9 154.7 237.9 240.6 11.1 

2009100512 0.0 33.4 84.3 64.6 95.8 181.6 406.8 

2009100518 15.3 15.3 45.7 54.7 164.5 159.3 369.1 

2009100600 0.0 33.5 180.6 175.5 10.6 139.9 107.7 

2009100606 11.1 39.5 54.2 56.6 131.5 271.8 317.1 

2009100612 0.0 63.6 44.5 107.5 207.2 231.1 243.8 

2009100618 10.6 62.7 119.0 70.0 115.3 131.2 161.0 

2009100700 23.9 39.5 94.5 187.1 197.1 184.0 270.6 

2009100706 11.1 45.7 138.2 277.6 299.0 354.9 300.4 

2009100712 0.0 30.7 140.0 157.1 115.8 222.0 84.0 

2009100718 11.1 76.8 119.0 152.7 146.4 108.6 214.3 

2009100800 22.2 44.0 115.3 131.4 115.7 62.4 139.9 

2009100806 11.1 194.4 266.6 299.5 131.1 197.8 348.4 

2009100812 15.4 57.7 118.8 161.8 52.8 220.0 281.9 

2009100818 24.0 75.2 121.4 57.3 116.7 273.5 238.0 

2009100900 24.7 77.5 182.5 49.2 154.7 214.4 217.2 

2009100906 0.0 77.6 0.0 38.7 114.8 116.6 147.5 

2009100912 15.4 128.1 31.7 167.0 201.2 189.2 230.5 

2009100918 10.6 47.8 31.7 200.1 191.1 241.6 294.7



2009101000 0.0 123.1 139.2 214.9 212.7 283.9 294.7 

2009101006 0.0 54.0 202.3 195.2 210.9 242.0 220.4 

2009101012 11.1 133.9 226.0 278.5 346.2 387.7 406.7 

2009101018 0.0 110.2 158.3 230.9 251.2 219.4 156.9 

2009101100 15.3 69.9 105.8 136.6 158.4 203.3 146.7 

2009101106 15.4 49.2 76.7 54.4 30.5 59.4 78.5 

2009101112 10.6 24.6 15.3 91.6 126.3 83.9 137.1 

2009101118 10.6 22.2 41.9 11.1 44.5 34.9 - 

2009101200 11.1 63.8 55.6 78.6 91.4 103.7 - 

2009101206 15.3 45.8 24.6 11.1 23.6 - - 

2009101212 0.0 43.2 73.8 61.9 153.7 - - 

2009101218 0.0 24.6 56.6 45.7 - - - 

2009101300 0.0 24.6 63.6 146.1 - - - 

2009101306 0.0 56.7 98.3 - - - - 

2009101312 0.0 100.0 - - - - - 

2009101318 0.0 89.0 - - - - - 

2009101400 0.0 113.1 - - - - - 

2009101406 11.1 - - - - - - 

2009101412 44.5 - - - - - - 

FCST TIMES 63 61 58 57 55 53 51 

Average (km) 9.4 65.9 103.6 127.8 155.6 200.6 245.8 

Min (km) 0.0 11.1 0.0 11.1 10.6 34.9 11.1 

Max (km) 44.5 194.4 226.0 299.5 476.9 636.5 694.0 

5. Numerical experiments for TY FENGSHEN 

(0806) and TY PARMA (0917) 

In this section some attemps to improve the model 

forecasts for TY FENGSHEN and TY PARMA had 

been conducted by modifying vortex modification 

step in vortex initialization scheme. 

5.1. TY FENGSHEN (0806) 

As mentioned in 4.5 track forecasts for TY 

FENGSHEN from many forecasting centers, 

including CMA’s model and official forecasts 

were not accurate with large position errors and 

strong NE bias. Fig. 16 showed forecasts from 

different forecast centers and models. 

Fig.16a. CMA’s official forecasts for TY 

FENGSHEN 

Fig.16b. Forecasts of Global Spectrum Model 

(GSM, JMA) for TY FENGSHEN 

Fig.16c. GUAM’s Official forecasts for TY 

FENGSHEN 

2009 

295

296 

ESCAP/WMO 


Fig.16d. JMA’s Official forecasts for TY 

FENGSHEN 

(as Fig. 10) Forecasts of CMA’s typhoon 

model for TY FENGSHEN 

Fig.16e. JTWC’s consensus forecasts for TY 

FENGSHEN 

Fig.16f. JTWC’s official forecasts for TY 

FENGSHEN 

There are many reasons caused the fail of TY 

FENGSHEN’s track prediction such as failing 

to predict the large scale environmental flow, 

TS vortex was incorrectly presented in vortex 

initialization scheme., etc. 

Referring to the importance of vortex initialization 

scheme in CMA’s TS prediction system 

experiments were conducted in modifying 

intensity scheme - partly removing shallow 

vortex+bogus vortex in vortex relocation (Ma 

and Qu, 2009) to see the effect of vortex intensity 

presentation in TY FENGSHEN’s track prediction. 

Fig. 17 showed the initial Sea Level Pressure 

minimum at 00h for all the forecasts (19-24 Jun 

2008) 

SLPmin 

1010 

1000 

990 

980 

970 

960 

00/19 

12/19 

00/20 

12/20 

00/21 

12/21 

00/22 

Date 

12/22 

00/23 

12/23 

00/24 

12/24 

EXP1 

OBS 

Fig. 17 . Initial Sea Level Pressure minimum at 

00h for all the forecasts (19-24 Jun 2008)



As can be seen from Fig.17, the bogus vortex is 

very weakly presented in initial field in comparison 

with the observed vortex. 

Configuration of experiments is as followings : 

(i) Experiment 1 : Operational system 

(GMTTP) 

BOGUS vortex relocation 

(ii) Experiment 2 : Bogus vortex relocation 

Partly removing shallow 

vortex + bogus vortex 

Fig. 18 showed the initial sea level pressure 

minimum at 00h for EXP 1 and EXP 2. It can 

be seen that the EXP 2 initial sea level pressure 

minimum is closer to that of observed vortex. 

SLPmin 

1010 

1000 

990 

980 

970 

960 

00/19 

12/19 

00/20 

12/20 

00/21 

12/21 

00/22 

Date 

12/22 

00/23 

12/23 

00/24 

12/24 

EXP1 

OBS 

EXP2 

Fig. 18 . Initial Sea Level Pressure minimum at 

00h for EXP 1 and EXP 2 (19-24 Jun.) 

There were 10 track forecasts starting from 00 

UTC 20/06/2008 conducted for experiments. 

Fig. 19a showed the track forecasts for EXP 1 and 

EXP 2 , Fig.19b showed the mean track errors for 

EXP 1 and EXP 2. 

mean track errors (km) 

600 

500 

400 

300 

200 

100 

0 

24(10) 48(7) 72(4) 96(3) 

Time (h) 

NWP 

Bogus 

Fig.19a. Mean track errors for EXP 1 and EXP 2. 

Fig. 19b. The track forecasts for EXP 1 and EXP 2 

As can be seen from Fig.19 better presenting TC 

bogus intensity in vortex initialization scheme 

brought positive effect on TY FENGSHEN’s track 

forecasts that led to decreasing the prediction 

errors and reducing NE bias (Ma and Qu, 2009). 

One of reasons causing inaccurate track forecasts 

of TY FENGSHEN is that models and official 

forecasts failed to predicted the development and 

intensity of subtropical high pressure ridge which 

is the large scale environmental flow. 

As mentioned in section 3 TS track forecasts 

could be improved if in vortex initialization scheme 

the environmental flow and the vortex structure 

were presented appropriatelly through selecting 

correct parameters (Nguyen T. M. Phuong, 

2004). Fig.20 showed the TY FENGSHEN track 

forecasts issued in operational run by above 

mentioned barotropic model in VNCHMF. 

2009 

297

298 

ESCAP/WMO 


Fig. 20. TY FENGSHEN track forecasts issued 

in operational run by a barotropic model with 

modified vortex initialization scheme (Nguyen 

T. M. Phuong, 2004) . Bold line with TS symbol 

is the observed track, other lines are track 

forecasts. 

Overally, vortex initialization plays important role 

in improving the accuracy of TS track prediction . 

5.2. TY PARMA (0917) 

In 2009 TY PARMA is also unusual TS in WNPAC. 

As mentioned in 4.10 this TS occurred in WNPAC 

for two weeks. During its life time its motion 

direction and intensity changed several times. 

CMA’s track forecasts and verification were 

shown in 4.10. 

To investigate the role of vortex initialization 

scheme on this TS track prediction an experiment 

was carried out on selecting TS bogus vortex size 

R B that is included in different formulas in vortex 

modification step. 

The experiments were conducted as followings : 

EXP 3 : recent operational TS prediction 

system with TS bogus vortex size R B equal to 

1.2R 15 in vortex modification, where R 15 is the 

radius of 15m/s wind speed ring. 

EXP 4 : the TS bogus vortex size R B is 

calculated from the conservation law of 

absolute angular momentum at the latitude : 

R B 

(1) 

= 

2V 

15 1/ 

2 

[ 1+ 

] R15 

fR 15 

where R B is TS bogus vortex size (km), V 15 is 

wind speed (m/s), R 15 is the radius of 15m/s 

wind speed ring (km), f is Coriolis parameter. 

As can be seen from the formula (1) R B in EXP 4 

is larger then that in EXP 3. 

Fig. 22a and Fig. 22b showed TS bogus vortex 

in sea level pressure field in EXP 3 and EXP 4 

for initial time 12 UTC 02/10/2009. It is obvious 

that TS bogus vortex in EXP 4 is significantly 

larger than that in EXP 3 in size . Also the TS 

bogus vortex’s central pressure in EXP 4 was 

lower than that in EXP 3. 

Fig.22a. TS bogus vortex in sea level pressure 

field in EXP 3 at initial time 12 UTC 02/10/2009 

for TS PARMA. 

Fig.22b. TS bogus vortex in sea level pressure 

field in EXP 4 at initial time 12 UTC 02/10/2009 

for TS PARMA.



Fig. 21. Track of TY PARMA (0917) and forecasts 

of CMA’s typhoon track prediction model with 

modification in vortex initialization scheme. The 

thick line with TS symbols is the observed track. 

Other lines are forecast tracks. 

Tab. 11. Verification for TY PARMA track 

forecasts issued CMA’s typhoon track prediction 

model with modification in vortex initialization 

scheme (position errors, km). 

In comparison with EXP 3’s results the attemp 

to select TS bogus vortex size using formula (1) 

for vortex modification step in vortex initialization 

scheme failed to improve the accuracy of 

TY PARMA track forecasts . This could be 

explained as firstly TY PARMA’s track was very 

complicated and secondly the TS bogus vortex 

size defined as (1) is not appropriate in term 

of presenting TS structure and surrounding 

environmental flow. 


2009092900 0.0 108.6 190.4 235.1 256.7 234.5 145.0 

2009092906 15.6 189.9 258.7 324.5 351.9 318.5 285.8 

2009092912 11.1 95.2 187.3 248.6 240.1 204.6 172.5 

2009092918 11.0 76.7 201.1 292.2 270.0 272.2 288.0 

2009093000 31.3 34.6 101.6 133.7 85.7 24.1 67.5 

2009093006 24.6 54.5 170.8 123.8 143.5 84.7 63.6 

2009093012 15.6 34.5 110.1 111.6 145.8 238.1 303.1 

2009093018 11.1 15.5 64.3 138.2 194.6 198.4 128.3 

2009100100 10.9 21.7 68.3 70.1 122.3 110.1 43.5 

2009100106 10.9 122.8 78.4 121.8 176.7 109.7 97.0 

2009100112 15.5 163.6 221.1 330.2 403.6 429.1 377.5 

2009100118 15.5 82.3 122.0 233.2 273.7 230.9 222.7 

2009100200 10.8 57.9 134.9 281.9 365.3 414.2 467.1 

2009100206 10.7 70.0 178.6 227.6 270.2 271.8 250.0 

2009100212 0.0 64.1 69.0 107.5 109.4 130.5 206.2 

2009100218 10.7 56.6 89.0 35.0 122.2 167.8 229.7 

2009100300 0.0 85.3 84.9 148.1 158.4 218.9 301.2 

2009100306 15.4 39.5 73.5 161.0 208.4 270.7 356.3 

2009100312 15.3 39.4 84.4 119.8 167.8 252.2 330.1 

2009100318 0.0 68.7 198.5 253.1 331.7 454.8 603.9 

2009100400 10.5 91.8 163.0 137.0 212.3 286.7 492.9 

2009100406 0.0 113.4 261.9 442.2 634.2 919.3 1231.5 

2009100412 0.0 98.9 195.7 367.8 549.5 785.0 969.4 

2009100418 15.3 116.9 282.6 442.4 607.1 831.6 933.1 

2009100500 0.0 52.2 178.4 277.9 455.7 607.5 703.4 

2009100506 0.0 62.1 152.3 269.3 367.5 408.7 393.0 

2009100512 10.4 33.4 61.3 129.2 76.9 49.3 178.5 

2009100518 11.1 104.7 191.4 250.3 207.4 63.7 116.0 

2009100600 11.1 43.6 106.5 77.7 24.0 143.1 128.1 

2009100606 15.3 38.7 15.4 73.9 143.7 326.0 337.0 

2009100612 10.5 43.8 54.7 15.4 134.6 164.3 137.9 

2009100618 11.1 108.5 199.7 148.7 46.2 73.9 98.5 

2009100700 23.9 43.8 85.2 100.6 150.7 184.0 270.6 

2009100706 11.1 23.9 157.1 251.1 299.7 368.4 385.4 

2009100712 0.0 91.4 135.1 185.6 177.2 236.2 185.1 

2009100718 33.4 118.9 100.6 182.9 179.2 191.6 234.2 

2009100800 33.4 48.0 118.6 69.2 115.7 23.8 123.1 

2009100806 15.4 207.0 276.5 281.9 97.7 190.4 343.3 

2009100812 30.8 150.6 244.9 185.4 77.2 203.5 236.3 

2009100818 24.0 108.6 139.7 77.3 127.3 208.5 200.5 

2009100900 35.0 54.0 139.8 33.5 183.7 152.5 130.4 

2009100906 24.0 54.2 39.5 62.5 96.0 100.7 157.8 

2009100912 21.2 118.6 63.3 190.8 174.6 128.2 157.1 

2009100918 21.2 24.6 84.5 205.6 154.1 125.9 74.1 

2009101000 0.0 124.1 128.8 161.8 138.4 128.1 139.0 

2009101006 0.0 84.5 170.8 247.0 323.7 362.3 359.3 

2009101012 15.3 91.0 141.4 202.7 252.5 231.1 236.4 

2009101018 11.1 54.0 122.8 218.8 188.7 106.6 67.5 

2009101100 11.1 49.3 133.5 180.9 157.1 123.2 106.8 

2009101106 10.6 47.7 115.8 80.6 61.0 33.4 55.6 

2009101112 10.6 23.8 15.3 61.9 49.1 59.4 111.7 

2009101118 11.1 57.0 69.9 113.3 147.6 220.0 - 

2009101200 11.1 47.4 43.2 45.7 73.7 60.9 - 

2009101206 15.3 10.5 11.1 41.7 85.6 - - 

2009101212 15.3 15.3 24.6 53.4 104.9 - - 

2009101218 15.3 53.4 129.6 208.6 - - - 

FCST TIMES 56 56 56 56 55 53 51 

Average (km) 13.1 73.1 129.3 174.5 204.9 240.3 279.1 

Min (km) 0.0 10.5 11.1 15.4 24.0 23.8 43.5 

Max (km) 35.0 207.0 282.6 442.4 634.2 919.3 1,231.5 

2009 

299

300 

ESCAP/WMO 


6. Comments and conclusion 

This study considered TS track forecast skill of 

the CMA’s TS track prediction system including 

the global model version T213L31 and vortex 

initialization scheme by analysing model forecasts 

for 10 TSs of complicated tracks during 2006 – 

2009 in WNPAC to find model’s systematic errors 

and bias, then conducting numerical experiments 

for TY PARMA (0917) and TY FENGSHEN (0806) 

by using CMA’s global spectral model and vortex 


modifications. 

Overally, the statistic showed that the CMA’s 

TS track prediction system had good forecast 

skill performance in term of mean track errors 

for majority of TSs with complicated tracks 

considered in this study for +24h, +48h and +72h 

forecast periods. However, it is obvious that in 

many track forecasts there is northward bias. 

Also, the track forecast errors are large when TS 

changes its motion direction or speed. This could 

be explained by many different factors including 

limitation in model physics, model resolution, 

physical parameterizations and initial conditions. 

To overcome the sparity of observations in 

ocean vortex initialization schemes are used for 

presenting TS bogus vortex in initial conditions 

to be similar to the observed TS based on the 

theoretical research and observational results. 

This approach brought very encouraging 

improvement in TS track forecasts accuracy. 

The improvement in CMA’s model track forecast 

accuracy for TY FENGSHEN in EXP 2 by 

better representing sea level pressure for TS 

bogus vortex in vortex modification step one 

again emphasied the important role of vortex 

initialization scheme in TS track forecast system. 

However, how to select appropriate parameters 

for correctly representing TS structure and 

surrounding environmental flow structure, their 

intensity, their size, their interaction in vortex 

initialization scheme so that this will contribute 

to further improvement in model track forecast 

accuracy overally and in case of TS complicated 

track is still a big challenge for reseach and 

experiments as results of EXP 4 for TY PARMA 

showed. Further serious research should be 

conducted in this aspect. 

Acknowledgements 

This research was financially supported by 

China Meteorological Administration (CMA) 

in TRCG Fellowship Scheme 2009 of WMO/ 

ESCAP Typhoon Committee and was carried out 

in Typhoon and Marine Meteorological Forecast 

Centre, National Meteorological Center (NMC) of 

CMA . The authors would like to express special 

thanks to Shuhong Ma, Qu Anxiang, Zhang Jin 

and other staffs in NMC for providing CMA’s 

typhoon model forecasts, materials, references 

and very valuable supporting. Also, we are very 

grateful to Hydrometeorological Service of SR 

Vietnam (VHMS) and Thailand Meteorological 

Department (TMD) for nominating us to CMA. 

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